BOJ governor Ueda to travel to Jackson Hole for Fed conference
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26 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Workday's forecast for quarterly subscription revenue disappoints
(Reuters) -Workday raised its annual subscription revenue forecast on Thursday, but an in-line outlook for the current quarter sent the human resources software provider's shares down nearly 4% in extended trading. Workday's customers rely on the company's single cloud-based platform, which provide applications to manage services including recruitment, payroll, accounting and audit. In an uncertain economy, customers are tightening their spending on platforms like Workday as they reassess budgets and timing. Workday's AI-driven tools help organizations automate tasks such as screening job applications, scheduling interviews, and streamlining workforce planning. The company on Thursday also announced it will buy Paradox, giving Workday an AI-powered talent acquisition suite to help customers more efficiently find, hire, and onboard employees. It did not provide financial details of the deal. Workday competes with Oracle, SAP and payroll providers such as Automatic Data Processing and Dayforce. Its customers include United Airlines, Visa and FedEx. For the third quarter, Workday expects subscription revenue of $2.24 billion, in line with analysts' average estimate, according to data compiled by LSEG. It raised its fiscal 2026 subscription revenue forecast to $8.82 billion, compared to its prior forecast of $8.80 billion. Workday's total revenue for the second quarter ended July 31 stood at $2.35 billion, compared with an estimate of $2.34 billion. Subscription revenue rose 14% to $2.17 billion.
Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Powell would have to move goal posts for a Sept. Fed rate cut
Investors are watching for any signs that the Federal Reserve will cut rates during Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Friday speech at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual Economic Symposium. BNP Paribas head of Americas' macro strategy and US economics, Calvin Tse, joins Market Domination with Josh Lipton and Barron's senior market analysis writer Paul La Monica to discuss his expectations for Powell's comments and for the Fed. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination. Well, pressure coming down on the Fed for policy changes. Expectations point towards a Fed rate cut in September, while President Trump continues to call for a big cut to rates. However, while markets look for a glimpse of a dovish tone from Fed Chair Powell, our next guest believes the Fed should remain on hold for the remainder of the year. Calvin C, BNP Paribas head of America's macro strategy and US economics, joins us now to discuss. Calvin, it's good to see you. Let's start, Calvin, with what we expect tomorrow. We're very wound up, Calvin, about tomorrow. I don't know if you've noticed, all eyes on J. Powell, Jackson Hole. What kind of J. Powell are we going to see? Wait, is it is it neutral J? Is it dovish J? Do we get a hawkish J? What do you think? Well, that's a million dollar question. We have been amongst the most hawkish banks on the street, calling for the Fed to remain on hold ever since December of 2024. That's been a challenging call to hold, especially as we've just mentioned, the markets have been really sticky on pricing in September at an extraordinarily high probability for a cut. Go ahead, come on. J. Powell has told us, however, that he has a very clear reaction function, and the two things that he looks at is the year-over-year rate of PC inflation and the unemployment rate. Based on that reaction function, the Fed should not be cutting rates in September. Therefore, what I think is the most important thing to be watching out for tomorrow morning is whether or not J. Powell shifts that reaction function. If he stands pat, which is our base case, continuing to highlight that the labor market still remains tight, given the unemployment rate, we think that a lot of that cut pricing can come out of the curve and push interest rates higher. If he stands pat, Calvin, your base case, how does the market respond? We think it will respond in a couple of ways. The first is we're probably going to see that September probabilities come down from those about 75% chance right now to maybe somewhere closer to 50/50. And what we think was also going to happen is that the yield curve is probably going to flatten quite significantly as well, as the front end rises relative to the back end. All right, Calvin. Uh, Paul, Calvin says stand pat, base case. What do you think? Yeah, I mean, it's obviously going to be data dependent to use that sort of trite saying, and we have, you know, some jobs numbers, some more inflation data that will be coming. The thing that I'm really struck by is that we talk a lot about hawks and doves. To use another bird analogy, Jerome Powell, as we all know, is a lame duck. He's not going to be the Fed chair for a third time. President Trump is going to nominate someone else, potentially sooner rather than later. So I think the big question is, if Powell is trying to cement his legacy, how cognizant is he going to remain of last year's arguable mistake in cutting rates aggressively because they were worried about some of the data? And then it turned out that inflation, kind of like, you know, the the, uh, guy in Monty Python who's saying, "I'm not dead, I'm not dead." Uh, it still is something that they have to worry about. So I do think that there's a chance Powell sounds a little bit more hawkish, and we can't cement that September rate cut just yet. It's going to be about the data, I think, more importantly, than anything Powell has to say tomorrow. Related Videos Rotation trade, US manufacturing, Fed speech: Market takeaways Walmart earnings: Markets 'missed the big picture,' analyst says Wall Street is bullish on Nvidia pre-earnings: Analyst explains Strategy & bitcoin volatility, HPE upgrade, Instacart downgrade Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Rotation trade, US manufacturing, Fed speech: Market takeaways
Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer joins Asking for a Trend with Josh Lipton to take a look at the big takeaways from Thursday's trading session: the continuation of the rotation trade, fresh manufacturing data showing that US manufacturing has picked up, and the markets' anticipation for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Tune in to Yahoo Finance on Friday for continued coverage of the Fed event and of Powell's speech at 10 a.m. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend. US stocks closing lower with the S&P 500 sliding for the fifth straight day. Drop comes as Fed share Powell's speech looms over rate cut hopes for more of the training day takeaways. Let's get to Yahoo finance's Josh Shafer. Josh. Josh, it was another day we keep using this word rotation, right? In the stock market and what we've been seeing a lot is just a lot of losers from the year, a lot of losers from the quarter, the laggards have been the winners, right? So what I'm going to point to here, let's go to a year to date on the sector if I can find it. There's my year to date. So the sectors that had been sort of leading, right? You have tech over there, you have utilities, you have industrials, well, let's flip to a month to date and look at where you have tech, look at where you have utilities, right? So that has been the trade that was a little bit of the trade today. You've seen that healthcares, consumer staples, that sort of defensive tilt. And if you just look at today's action, something a little bit similar or different mixes of exactly where those sectors fall, but again, you haven't seen tech be the leader, right? It's been that flow out of tech. That's been the trade for essentially over a week now. And it's been also you've seen small caps catch a bit, the Russell 2000, I think close just above in positive territory today. Well, the S&P 500 did not. So that's been the trend. Of course, the question would be whether or not that trend continues, right? Yeah, on on that tech lag there, Josh, I mean, do you think it's listen, it's just it's late August, nobody's around, no one's at their desk. It's really just Josh and Josh. That's it. And let's not make too much of it or no. You think, hey, this is actually maybe it is signaling something more meaningful. And so I I think Josh what's helpful with that, right? Is let's look at say the Russell 2000, right? That's been kind of the one of the rotation out of trades would be, well, we're going to buy small caps, right? We're going to go down and cap size. But if I put a year on it, Josh, you look at areas where we're talking about the Russell 2000 a lot, the rotation's coming, the rotation's coming, even if I put a three year on here. Again, you've seen fits and starts with that rally a lot. And what strategists are saying right now is tomorrow's going to be a big day when we hear from Jay Powell, September's going to be big. Are the rate cuts really coming? The market has started to get excited about these rate cuts. Us an index like the Russell 2000 and sort of that broader broadening trade probably needs those rate cuts. So basically, we need a little bit more data and to be a little bit more confident, but if that move continues, then strategists do think maybe we do start to actually see the broadening truly happen. Remember that Russell 2000 hasn't hit a record high in this bull market while a lot of the other indexes have. All right, Shafer, bullet point number two. Interesting manufacturing data today, Josh, out of S&P Global. So manufacturing picked up in August, it hit its highest level in over three years activity. So that would be positive from an economic growth standpoint, right? But the in the release actually sort of cut two ways. So good on the growth front, this is prices paid across all sectors. That's not good, right? That's a potential indicator of future inflation, right? And so companies are saying they're paying more, they're passing those costs onto consumers. So what you've got here is a decent read on the overall economy. S&P Global's economist saying maybe it's two and a half percent GDP we're pacing at for the third quarter, but also looking at higher consumer prices too. And so how do you think that um that impacts the fed narrative, Josh? How what do you think Jay Powell makes of that? Yeah, it sort of looks maybe stagflationary or maybe even reaccelerating, right? I mean, S&P Global's economist, Chris Williamson actually pointed out, if this was really the case and you have GDP truly accelerating, and you also have inflation accelerating, I mean, that's when we start talking about rate hikes, right? And so that's not really, of course, in the conversation at this point, but just simply looking at this data point, it definitely doesn't argue for more cuts. Josh, so when we think towards September and those debates that are starting to trickle in of whether or not they're actually going to cut, you could put this data in the bucket of eh, maybe not. All right, final point, Shafer. Final point, it's a big day tomorrow, Josh. We've spent all week talking about Wind up for this day. Shar Powell's speech 10:00 a.m. tomorrow. And I think what's going to be interesting to watch is just really what we were getting into, right? Does Jerome Powell come out? He's certainly been perhaps on the more hawkish side of Fed officials. He's not talking a lot about cuts, he's not talking about interest rates needing to come lower. And you had a guest on earlier today, Calvin from BNP. He pointed out, if Powell talks like that again, like he did at that July meeting, might shake the market a little bit. We might see a little bit of a sell off. Maybe look at that Russell 2000 we were talking about, right? That's been rallying on rate cut hopes. If Powell comes out negative tomorrow or maybe they're not cutting in September, you might see some pressure most likely. Do you think the action you've seen in the market this week? Do you think in part is that suggesting, hey, maybe markets investors kind of rethinking whether that cut in September is is a lock? Yeah, I mean, I think a little bit, right? But I also think you've seen a market that's favoring that cut, I would argue, right? You think about home builders have been rallying, they would benefit from interest rates, right? We just talked about small caps. So you've seen interest rate sensitive sectors over the past week, over the past two weeks, sort of catching a bid. So I guess you could argue maybe the market's getting a little bit ahead of itself. Again, if Powell doesn't come out and be a little bit more lenient on when they're going to be cutting and the fact of the direction of interest rates will be lower. All right, all eyes on J. Powell tomorrow. Thank you, Josh. Related Videos Powell would have to move goal posts for a Sept. Fed rate cut Walmart earnings: Markets 'missed the big picture,' analyst says Wall Street is bullish on Nvidia pre-earnings: Analyst explains Fed's Jackson Hole symposium: A look behind the scenes Sign in to access your portfolio
