Asian markets shudder on US national debt fears

Asia Times

22-05-2025

Asian equities tumbled Thursday (May 22) as investors absorbed a stark message from Washington: America's fiscal burden is ballooning and the impact is rippling across the Pacific.
The sell-off wasn't isolated. From Tokyo to Mumbai, regional benchmarks turned red, tracking Wall Street's plunge as anxiety surged over a proposed US budget bill that could hugely inflate the national debt as it approaches an already staggering US$37 trillion.
This number matters in Asia more than many acknowledge. For decades, the US dollar and the Treasury market have been the gravitational center of global finance. Asia's economies—export-driven, dollar-reliant and often US trade-dependent—have operated under the assumption of American fiscal discipline. This assumption, however, is breaking down.
The US government had to pay a yield of 5.047% this week to borrow $16 billion over 20 years. The fact that Washington is now offering rates unseen in decades just to keep borrowing shows how fragile demand for its debt has become. The ripple effects are hitting Asia hard.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note spiked to 4.59%, pushing up borrowing costs across the global economy. That's not just a technical move—it's a direct hit to Asian corporates and governments that rely on dollar funding.
Asian investors now wonder how much control the US still has over this debt spiral. President Donald Trump's push to advance a massive federal spending package without a parallel deficit-reduction framework has raised alarm bells in financial centers from Seoul to Singapore.
In Tokyo, officials are reportedly reviewing contingency plans for US fiscal instability. The Bank of Korea flagged 'external debt dynamics' as a new risk in its latest financial stability report. The Reserve Bank of India is watching dollar strength and Treasury yields closely.
But beyond the macro mechanics, there's a deeper strategic concern emerging across Asia: erosion of trust. The Trump administration's hardline trade stance is re-emerging. Tariffs—whether new or reimposed—are back on the table.
This puts key Asian exporters directly in the line of fire. Chinese technology firms, South Korean chipmakers, Vietnamese manufacturers and even Japanese automakers are reassessing forward orders. The memory of past trade fights lingers, and this time it's happening under the shadow of a fiscal regime that is visibly wobbling.
For Asia's financial markets, the timing couldn't be worse. As China navigates a slow and fragile recovery and Japan fights deflationary forces, the region was looking for global tailwinds—not more unpredictability from its largest trading partner.
The bond sell-off is more than a warning about interest rates. It's a vote of no confidence in America's willingness, or ability, to rein in spending. The consequences for Asia are structural.
Many of the region's largest institutional investors, including central banks, insurance companies and pension funds, are major holders of US Treasurys. As yields rise and prices fall, portfolios suffer. That translates into fiscal stress, funding gaps and, in some cases, reduced room for domestic policy stimulus.
That's why the sudden surge in risk-off behavior this week isn't just panic—it's positioning. Bitcoin's meteoric rise this month—up 15%, touching a record $111,000—is partly a product of this shift. Alternative stores of value are gaining traction. Asian investors are increasingly looking beyond the dollar-based system.
Stablecoins like USDT are piling up on crypto exchanges, signaling growing liquidity in nontraditional markets. Institutional capital is moving. Public companies have boosted their bitcoin holdings by 31% since January—many of them Asian tech firms and conglomerates with significant US exposure.
Meanwhile, the push for crypto regulation in the US—accelerated this week with the Senate voting to advance stablecoin legislation—adds a layer of urgency. Trump has signaled he wants crypto rules ready before the August recess. That's being read in Asia as political theater: a rush to create the appearance of control as confidence wanes.
The question Asian policymakers and market participants are asking now is no longer, 'Will the US get its fiscal house in order?' but rather, 'What happens when it doesn't?'
The dollar may remain dominant, but dominance built on rising debt, erratic trade policies and politicized budgeting isn't sustainable. Asia is beginning to recalibrate.
More local-currency trade agreements, more digital asset experimentation, more sovereign diversification away from US Treasurys—all are now on the table.
The US national debt story has become Asia's market risk. And until Washington confronts its addiction to borrowing, Asian investors will treat every US budget negotiation as a global event risk, not just a domestic debate.
The sell-off this week is a symptom; the real ill is Asia's fading faith in US credibility.