Trump's Iran strikes: will short-term gains end in more long-term pain?
US President
Donald Trump claimed victory after US forces attacked
three key nuclear sites in Iran last weekend, but the operation might not translate into diplomatic gains – at least for now, observers said.
Whether the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran would hold remained uncertain, they added, while Trump's unpredictable rhetoric and actions made it increasingly difficult for foreign governments, including Beijing, to trust Washington.
'In the short-run it appeared to be a gain for Trump, as the attacks dealt a significant blow to Iran's nuclear programme, but in the long term this could also make Iran determined that the only path is to pursue nuclear weapons; otherwise it would continue to be oppressed by the US and Israel,' said Wu Xinbo, director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
Tehran's hostility with the US and Israel was unlikely to end, he added.
'Whether it is the conflict with Israel or the tensions with the US, none of these issues have been resolved … so in the short term, it may be a gain, but in the long run, it could turn into pain for the US.'
Citing a preliminary classified US intelligence assessment, CNN reported on Wednesday that the US military strikes on three of Iran's key nuclear facilities did not destroy the core components of the country's nuclear programme but instead likely set it back by only a few months.
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