India may still cross the ‘miracle economy' benchmark of 7% GDP growth
India's economic growth story keeps getting better. I've long been cautious about cheering data that show extraordinary improvements. Later data revisions can present a very different picture. But at least two cheers, if not three, are warranted by the latest GDP data.GDP growth rate for FY25 has been revised upwards from 6.3% to 6.5%. Readers might view this as a good, but not remarkable, improvement. The picture improves dramatically when we look at the upward revision for growth in FY24, the previous year, from 8.2% to 9.2%. Thereby hangs quite a tale.
Chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran believes India is on a growth trajectory of 6.5%. He had predicted 6.5% growth at the start of both FY24 and FY25, continuing the trend of the last two decades. That provides the background to judge the latest estimates of 9.2% for FY24 and 6.5% for FY25. Critics have argued that the extraordinary performance in FY24 was misleading. The first advance estimate (AE) for that year was 7.4%. It was upped to 8.2% in the second AE, and now to 9.2% in the provisional estimate. The final estimate is yet to come. Many readers are confused by as many as four revisions, which are so large as to stoke suspicions of data fiddling. However, Pronab Sen, India's elder statesman in statistical issues, says that while data collection suffers from several flaws that need correction, they are not fiddled.The official inflation rate is currently based on CPI. But a different inflation rate - GDP deflator - is used to measure GDP growth. The two are often similar, but can also be very different. Since services account for three-fifths of GDP, they are given much bigger weightage in the GDP deflator than in CPI. In FY24, GDP deflator seems to have shrunk dramatically to just 0.6%, far lower than the 4.6% inflation indicated by CPI.Such large anomalies in two measures of inflation are rare, but not unheard of. Critics said GDP deflator had seriously distorted reality in FY24. The corollary of such fears was that, if GDP was statistically exaggerated in FY24, it would be statistically underestimated in FY25 as the deflator rebounded from 0.6% to 3.2%. The underlying trend would be the average for the two years.This average turns out to be 7.85% - way above the 6.5% long-term trend. It is also way above the officially predicted average of 6.5% for the two years. It is well above the 7% benchmark for a 'miracle economy'.One does not know if further revisions will change the picture radically. But at this stage, India seems to be performing well above expert expectations. In a world filled with economic and geopolitical uncertainties, this is a good sign of resilience.
In FY24, economist Larry Summers declared, 'The world is on fire,' reflecting Third World problems that led to IMF rescues in India's three neighbours - Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. In FY25, Donald Trump has created enormous geopolitical uncertainties, and the old economic order created after WW2 is eroding fast. This will tend to slow world growth. That makes India's performance look that much better.
GoI's emphasis on manufacturing is not working well. Manufacturing is growing more slowly than GDP. So, its share is falling - now 18% - despite large incentives. The one area of success has been mobile phones, where Apple and Samsung have become huge exporters. Chinese major Vivo is outsourcing its phones to the Noida-based Indian company, Dixon Technologies. This sector is surrounded by uncertainty because of Trump's threat to Apple to make phones in the US, or be hit by high import tariffs. Investment, a major driver of growth, is doing well. Gross fixed capital formation grew at 9.4% in FY25. This raised the annual rate to 33.7% of GDP - the highest since FY13. Higher investment is required for sustaining higher growth, and the two have accelerated in tandem - a good sign. High government capex appears to have crowded in private investment.
Net exports have also contributed. The merchandise trade gap has narrowed, and services surplus improved. Global capability centres (GCCs) continue to expand, creating a hi-tech high-income structure that bodes well for the future. A record rabi cop is in the offing. This should kindle rural consumer spending. A good monsoon is forecast, raising hopes for a bumper kharif harvest. Even as climate doomsters keep predicting disaster, agricultural performance keeps improving.
India's macroeconomics looks good at a time when other emerging markets are in trouble. Fiscal deficit and trade deficit are both well under control, as is inflation. Many old and deep problems continue, such as lousy education and a dysfunctional police-justice system. Nevertheless, India may still cross the 'miracle economy' benchmark of 7% GDP growth in the foreseeable future.
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NDTV
22 minutes ago
- NDTV
Endgame In Battle Against Maoists? 15 Key Figures Still Lurk In Shadows
Bastar, Chhattisgarh: The death of Basavaraju, the elusive supremo of the CPI (Maoist), in a high-stakes anti-Naxal operation deep in the jungles of Abujhmad on May 21, marked what authorities describe as a decisive turning point in India's war against Left-Wing Extremism. The operation, led by the District Reserve Guard (DRG), has not only struck at the heart of Maoist leadership but also triggered a sweeping reassessment of the movement's remaining strength. But this was not just the end of a most-wanted rebel's journey - it was the beginning of what security agencies now term "the final chapter" in the country's decades-long Maoist insurgency. "This was not just another encounter. This was the culmination of years of intelligence gathering, ground operations, and coordination between multiple agencies," said Sundarraj P, Inspector General of Police, Bastar Range. "The fall of Basavaraju is symbolic. It reflects how the topmost leadership of the Maoist movement is collapsing." Yet, even as the government targets March 31 as the deadline to eradicate Naxalism from Indian soil, senior officers and ground personnel acknowledge the forest is not silent yet. "The jungle still hides ghosts with guns," said a senior officer involved in the Bastar operations. In Bastar, there still exists a list- one that security forces grimly refer to as the "Dead and Danger Zone." This is a list of India's Most Wanted Maoists-some of the most dangerous and secretive figures ever to have led an armed insurgency. Some from this list have been killed. Some are behind bars. But some are still breathing, still hiding, still holding their guns. Here, in a first, is the complete list - names that were never made public together before. Names of those whose shadows still haunt Bastar and beyond. Mopalla Lakshman Rao alias Ganapati Age: 75 | Politburo Member, Advisor to Central Committee Reward: Rs 1 crore An ideological pillar of the Maoist movement, Ganapati remains one of the most senior and secretive figures in hiding. Mallojula Venugopal alias Bhupati Age: 70 | Politburo Member, Advisor to Central Committee, Secretary CRB Reward: Rs 1 crore Strategic and powerful, Bhupati is believed to be among the few still capable of reorganising scattered cadres. Thippari Tirupati alias Devji / Sanjeev / Ramesh Age: 62 | Politburo Member, Head of Military Commission Reward: Rs 1 crore The man allegedly behind some of the most lethal attacks. A ghost in the jungle, and a top priority for security forces. Mishir Besra alias Bhaskar Age: 63 | Politburo Member, ERB In-Charge, Spokesperson Reward: Rs 1 crore Handles communications and propaganda. His ideological influence continues despite setbacks. Kadri Satya Narayan Reddy alias Kosa Age: 67 | Central Committee Member, Secretary DKSZC Reward: Rs 40 lakh One of the most experienced strategists in the group, operating across multiple zones. Pullari Prasad Rao alias Chandanna Age: 64 | Central Committee Member, Telangana Secretary Reward: Rs 40 lakh Modem Balakrishna alias Balanna Age: 61 | Central Committee Member, Odisha In-Charge Reward: Rs 40 lakh Ganesh Uike alias Rajesh Tiwari Age: 64 | Central Committee Member, Odisha Secretary Reward: Rs 40 lakh Anal Da alias Tufan / Patiram Manjhi Age: 57 | Secretary Bihar-Jharkhand Special Area Reward: Rs 40 lakh Gajarala Ravi alias Uday Age: 59 | AOBSZC Secretary, Member of Military Commission Reward: Rs 40 lakh Sabyasachi Goswami alias Ajay Da Age: 43 | Member, WBAC-1 Area Committee Reward: Rs 40 lakh Rajchandra Reddy alias Katta Ramchandra Age: 63 | DKSZC Secretary, SMZB In-Charge Reward: Rs 40 lakh Sujata alias Kalpana Age: 61 | Head of South Bureau, DAKMS Reward: Rs 40 lakh Thentu Lakshmi alias Narasimha Chalam Age: 67 | Central Committee Member Reward: Rs 40 lakh Madvi Hidma alias Hidmanna Age: 46 | In-Charge of Jharkhand & Southern Sub-Zone Reward: Rs 40 lakh Accused in multiple deadly ambushes, including the 2021 Sukma attack. Possibly the most feared name in Bastar today. In a candid conversation, Sundarraj P, Inspector General of Police (Bastar Range), told NDTV: "We have neutralised more than 50 per cent of the CPI (Maoist)'s top leadership. We're tracking 15 more top operatives. Many of them are old, fatigued, and some are thinking about surrendering... Our appeal to them is clear-come back to the mainstream. This war doesn't have to end with death." A Movement in Decline, A Leadership in Crisis In the last three years, the CPI (Maoist) has witnessed a sustained and systematic targeting of its top leadership. The police confirm that more than 50 per cent of the Maoist central command has been either killed or captured. In the last 17 months alone, over 400 Maoists have been killed in anti-Naxal operations across Chhattisgarh and neighbouring regions. But the real story begins where the fight gets personal - with the elimination of those who once held the reins of the red terror. Sundarraj P, who leads anti-Maoist operations in Bastar, shared details of what is being described as the most decisive phase in the history of the movement: "In recent years, CPI (Maoist) Central Committee member Deepak Teltumbde was eliminated in Gadchiroli, Maharashtra. In Chhattisgarh's Gariaband, we recovered the body of Chalapathi. On May 21, a landmark operation was carried out in Abujhmad, where we killed the top Maoist commander Basavaraju. In Jharkhand, Prashant, a Politburo member, was arrested. His wife Sheila, also a Central Committee member, was caught shortly after. Four Central Committee members - Ramanna, Ramakrishna, Haribhushan, and Sudarshan - died in South Bastar at different times. And in Jharkhand, we recovered the body of Arvind ji, another key leader, who died due to illness." These names were once the core of the CPI (Maoist)'s leadership - mentors, strategists, commanders. For the first time in the history of Naxal operations, security forces have successfully eliminated 8 out of the top 10 Maoist leaders. The remaining two? Captured alive. This is being hailed as the most significant blow ever dealt to the Maoist structure. But even in this moment of victory, the war is far from over. More than 15 high-ranking Maoist leaders are still at large. They continue to hide in forests. And at any given moment-they could emerge. Guns blazing. They are the remnants of an ideology under siege - waiting for their final confrontation. What makes this conflict different is that it is not just a war of weapons. It is a war of terrain, patience, and silence. The Maoist strategy has always thrived on secrecy, local support, and the wilderness. The government, in turn, has responded with better tech, improved intel, and most importantly, coordination between states. Operations like the one in Abujhmad, which killed Basavaraju, are products of years of human intelligence and tactical planning. Inside Abujhmad: The Theatre of the Final War The operation that killed Basavaraju took place in Gunde Kot, a remote village in Abujhmad-one of India's most impenetrable and poorly mapped forest zones. In this region, state presence is minimal, and basic infrastructure like roads, schools, and health centres is still absent in many parts. Local accounts paint a chilling picture of life under Maoist control. "Two years ago, Naxals came to our house," recalled Sarita, a young girl from Gunde Kot. "They saw we had six children. They told my parents, 'Give us one.' They took away my elder sister, Madko. They said if we refused, they would punish the whole village." Such stories are common across Bastar, where the Maoist presence has often translated into decades of fear, deprivation, and forced recruitment. Government Pushes Development, Seeks to Fill Vacuum With the Maoist command structure crumbling, the Chhattisgarh government has intensified its efforts to bring development to areas that were long under rebel influence. "We are determined to change the narrative," said Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Sharma. "We are building schools in areas that never saw classrooms, setting up forest produce centers to provide income to tribal families, and converting old Maoist camps into training hubs and livelihood centres." Officials claim that this developmental push is being strategically combined with a psychological outreach, where security forces interact directly with tribal communities, encouraging them to join village defence committees, forest cooperatives, and civil society initiatives. The Road Ahead: Can the Guns Fall Silent? With most top commanders either dead or behind bars, and local recruitment dipping drastically due to increased awareness and development, many security experts believe the Maoist movement is nearing its endgame. But there is caution in celebration. Officers on the ground say the CPI (Maoist) has a long history of resilience - of going silent, regrouping, and returning when least expected. For now, the jungles of Bastar remain under watch -- by drones, patrols, and by hope. Hope that for the first time in decades, an entire generation of tribal children may grow up without having to march into the forest with a gun.
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New Indian Express
an hour ago
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Senior Maoist leader killed in encounter with security forces in Chhattisgarh
BIJAPUR: A senior Maoist leader carrying Rs 40 lakh bounty was killed in an encounter with security forces in Chhattisgarh's Bijapur district on Thursday, official sources said. According to the sources, Maoists' Central Committee member Gautam alias Sudhakar was gunned down in the latest gunfight, which comes days after CPI (Maoist) general secretary Nambala Keshav Rao alias Basavaraju was killed by security forces in the Bastar region, dealing a major blow to the armed movement. However, Sudhakar's death is yet to be officially announced. The exchange of fire broke out in the forest of Indravati National Park area when a joint team of security personnel was out on an anti-Naxalite operation based on inputs about the presence of senior cadres, a senior police official posted in Bastar Range told PTI. Personnel belonging to the Special Task Force, District Reserve Guard, both units of the Chhattisgarh police, and CoBRA (Commando Battalion for Resolute Action - an elite unit of CRPF) were involved in the operation, he said. The offensive was launched based on inputs about the presence of Maoist leader Sudhakar, Telangana State Committee member Bandi Prakash, Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee (DKSZC) member Pappa Rao, and a few other armed cadres, the official said. "Preliminary reports suggest a strong possibility of major success for security forces in the operation," he said. Search operations were still underway in the area and more details will be shared later, he added.
