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Business Standard
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Census 2027: Findings to spruce up economic data, urban-rural gauges
The upcoming population census will improve the representativeness of sample surveys conducted to track important economic metrics and the changing equations between urban and rural agglomerations in the country, thus aiding more informed policy making, experts reckoned. Pronab Sen, former chief statistician of India says that the recent surveys being conducted by the National Statistics Office (NSO) have become less reliable as they have been drawing their samples from the previous census, which was conducted way back in 2011. 'The new census data will help in improving the samples that are used for NSO surveys, thus increasing their representativeness of the things happening in the Indian economy, particularly on parameters like consumption, health and labour markets,'he noted. TCA Anant, adjunct professor, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, and a former chief statistician said the census will be helpful in determining the true extent of urbanisation as well as the gender mix of the population. 'A lot of economic data is based on samples drawn from rural and urban stratums. Data on rural-urban division is quite fuzzy. From the time the last census was conducted, urbanisation has occurred at a rapid pace and we have been underestimating it since then… so the new data will help define urban-rural areas better,' he said. The next census' findings will also help identify the extent of India's ageing population and vulnerability levels. 'We have no reliable estimates of the senior citizens in the country, which affects our measure of the penetration of pension products in the country,' pointed out said Mukesh Anand, assistant professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. PC Mohanan, former acting chairman of the National Statistical Commission, said the Census 2027 data will be helpful to arrive at better estimates of employment indicators, particularly for the Periodic Labour Force Surveys (PLFS) and the Reserve Bank of India's KLEMS database. Moreover, the universal survey's data will also be used to update the National Population Register. 'However, one thing that will be a bit tricky will be the conduct of caste census, as the government is yet to come up with the methodology and the questionnaire,' Mohanan averred. In 2023, Shamika Ravi, member EAC-PM had said all major surveys in India that were conducted after 2011, and used the Census 2011 for the sampling frame, have significantly overestimated the proportion of the rural population.
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Business Standard
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Findings to spruce up economic data, urban-rural gauges
The upcoming population census will improve the representativeness of sample surveys conducted to track important economic metrics and the changing equations between urban and rural agglomerations in the country, thus aiding more informed policy making, experts reckoned. Pronab Sen, former chief statistician of India says that the recent surveys being conducted by the National Statistics Office (NSO) have become less reliable as they have been drawing their samples from the previous census, which was conducted way back in 2011. 'The new census data will help in improving the samples that are used for NSO surveys, thus increasing their representativeness of the things happening in the Indian economy, particularly on parameters like consumption, health and labour markets,'he noted. TCA Anant, adjunct professor, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, and a former chief statistician said the census will be helpful in determining the true extent of urbanisation as well as the gender mix of the population. 'A lot of economic data is based on samples drawn from rural and urban stratums. Data on rural-urban division is quite fuzzy. From the time the last census was conducted, urbanisation has occurred at a rapid pace and we have been underestimating it since then… so the new data will help define urban-rural areas better,' he said. The next census' findings will also help identify the extent of India's ageing population and vulnerability levels. 'We have no reliable estimates of the senior citizens in the country, which affects our measure of the penetration of pension products in the country,' pointed out said Mukesh Anand, assistant professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. PC Mohanan, former acting chairman of the National Statistical Commission, said the Census 2027 data will be helpful to arrive at better estimates of employment indicators, particularly for the Periodic Labour Force Surveys (PLFS) and the Reserve Bank of India's KLEMS database. Moreover, the universal survey's data will also be used to update the National Population Register. 'However, one thing that will be a bit tricky will be the conduct of caste census, as the government is yet to come up with the methodology and the questionnaire,' Mohanan averred. In 2023, Shamika Ravi, member EAC-PM had said all major surveys in India that were conducted after 2011, and used the Census 2011 for the sampling frame, have significantly overestimated the proportion of the rural population.
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
India may still cross the ‘miracle economy' benchmark of 7% GDP growth
India's economic growth story keeps getting better. I've long been cautious about cheering data that show extraordinary improvements. Later data revisions can present a very different picture. But at least two cheers, if not three, are warranted by the latest GDP growth rate for FY25 has been revised upwards from 6.3% to 6.5%. Readers might view this as a good, but not remarkable, improvement. The picture improves dramatically when we look at the upward revision for growth in FY24, the previous year, from 8.2% to 9.2%. Thereby hangs quite a tale. Chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran believes India is on a growth trajectory of 6.5%. He had predicted 6.5% growth at the start of both FY24 and FY25, continuing the trend of the last two decades. That provides the background to judge the latest estimates of 9.2% for FY24 and 6.5% for FY25. Critics have argued that the extraordinary performance in FY24 was misleading. The first advance estimate (AE) for that year was 7.4%. It was upped to 8.2% in the second AE, and now to 9.2% in the provisional estimate. The final estimate is yet to come. Many readers are confused by as many as four revisions, which are so large as to stoke suspicions of data fiddling. However, Pronab Sen, India's elder statesman in statistical issues, says that while data collection suffers from several flaws that need correction, they are not official inflation rate is currently based on CPI. But a different inflation rate - GDP deflator - is used to measure GDP growth. The two are often similar, but can also be very different. Since services account for three-fifths of GDP, they are given much bigger weightage in the GDP deflator than in CPI. In FY24, GDP deflator seems to have shrunk dramatically to just 0.6%, far lower than the 4.6% inflation indicated by large anomalies in two measures of inflation are rare, but not unheard of. Critics said GDP deflator had seriously distorted reality in FY24. The corollary of such fears was that, if GDP was statistically exaggerated in FY24, it would be statistically underestimated in FY25 as the deflator rebounded from 0.6% to 3.2%. The underlying trend would be the average for the two average turns out to be 7.85% - way above the 6.5% long-term trend. It is also way above the officially predicted average of 6.5% for the two years. It is well above the 7% benchmark for a 'miracle economy'.One does not know if further revisions will change the picture radically. But at this stage, India seems to be performing well above expert expectations. In a world filled with economic and geopolitical uncertainties, this is a good sign of resilience. In FY24, economist Larry Summers declared, 'The world is on fire,' reflecting Third World problems that led to IMF rescues in India's three neighbours - Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. In FY25, Donald Trump has created enormous geopolitical uncertainties, and the old economic order created after WW2 is eroding fast. This will tend to slow world growth. That makes India's performance look that much better. GoI's emphasis on manufacturing is not working well. Manufacturing is growing more slowly than GDP. So, its share is falling - now 18% - despite large incentives. The one area of success has been mobile phones, where Apple and Samsung have become huge exporters. Chinese major Vivo is outsourcing its phones to the Noida-based Indian company, Dixon Technologies. This sector is surrounded by uncertainty because of Trump's threat to Apple to make phones in the US, or be hit by high import tariffs. Investment, a major driver of growth, is doing well. Gross fixed capital formation grew at 9.4% in FY25. This raised the annual rate to 33.7% of GDP - the highest since FY13. Higher investment is required for sustaining higher growth, and the two have accelerated in tandem - a good sign. High government capex appears to have crowded in private investment. Net exports have also contributed. The merchandise trade gap has narrowed, and services surplus improved. Global capability centres (GCCs) continue to expand, creating a hi-tech high-income structure that bodes well for the future. A record rabi cop is in the offing. This should kindle rural consumer spending. A good monsoon is forecast, raising hopes for a bumper kharif harvest. Even as climate doomsters keep predicting disaster, agricultural performance keeps improving. India's macroeconomics looks good at a time when other emerging markets are in trouble. Fiscal deficit and trade deficit are both well under control, as is inflation. Many old and deep problems continue, such as lousy education and a dysfunctional police-justice system. Nevertheless, India may still cross the 'miracle economy' benchmark of 7% GDP growth in the foreseeable future.
Time of India
11-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
After multilateral agency granted fresh loans to Pakistan, Experts say IMF in need of funding process reforms
New Delhi: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) needs to reform its funding processes and review conditions for making finances available to countries, experts said on Saturday, a day after the multilateral body approved fresh loans to Pakistan amid its armed conflict with India. #Operation Sindoor India-Pakistan Clash Live Updates| Pak moving troops to border areas? All that's happening Why India chose to abstain instead of 'No Vote' against IMF billion-dollar funding to Pakistan How Pak's jihadi general Munir became trapped in his own vice The IMF should now analyse why frequent bailouts haven't worked for Pakistan and whether Islamabad deserves the fund's generous indulgence every now and then, they told ET. Also, Indian officials should step up engagement with the IMF staff and ensure that the funds being made available to Pakistan aren't diverted towards war or terrorism - a concern already expressed by New Delhi. Pronab Sen, former chairman at the National Statistical Commission , said the IMF funds to a country are typically tied to conditions. Once a country meets them, fresh tranches of a bailout programme are released. He expected India to continue to voice its opposition to the IMF funding to Pakistan. Given the dominant role of the US at the IMF, the "continuation of bailouts to Pakistan will hinge on how the American administration perceives Islamabad in the coming years - an ally of the US or China", Sen added. Live Events Review of Conditions NR Bhanumurthy, director of the Madras School of Economics , said: "It's time for the IMF to initiate reforms in fund disbursement processes. It has to review the whole gamut of conditionalities and the efficacy of bailout programmes for countries." This can be made a part of the reforms of the IMF and other multilateral institutions, mooted during India's G20 presidency in 2023, he added. India has pointed out to the IMF that Pakistan has had disbursements from the IMF in 28 of the 35 years since 1989. In the last five years, there have been four IMF programmes to support it. The IMF board, which met in Washington DC on Friday, approved an extended fund facility lending programme of $1 billion to Pakistan. It also cleared a $1.4 billion credit line for climate resilience efforts. India abstained from voting at the board meeting, raising concerns over the efficacy of such bailouts and flagging the "possibility of misuse of funds for state-sponsored cross-border terrorism". There is no provision to vote against a proposal at the IMF. A country can vote in favour or abstain. If the previous programmes had succeeded in putting in place a sound macroeconomic policy environment, India stressed, Pakistan would not have approached the fund for yet another bailout programme. New Delhi has also underscored the "oversized" role of the Pakistani army in the economic affairs there.
