Taking the temperature of summer travel
Richard Turen
When you operate a store that sends patrons with varying budgets to various places on our planet at various times of the year, the results can, well, vary. Examining data that is useful for explaining what is happening in travel this summer and next is time-consuming and can lead to conclusions that are far from universally accepted. But I feel an obligation to look at some of the hard questions with you to see if we can find any reality in the data.
Where the hell are we when it comes to the current travel plans of Americans?
Clients are concerned about several issues that are affecting their choices for both domestic and international travel. Revenge travel is over. Talk about tariffs; price increases; canceled flights and the need to overhaul our air traffic control system; anti-American feelings reflecting the election of an "America first" president; and a stock market that is, at best, unpredictable, have caused many of our clients to reconsider travel abroad.
But we want to be very careful not to overstate the case. Nothing truly dramatic is revealed in the data, and 2026 can still be a strong year for Americans visiting Europe. I do, however, think we need to take note of the following:
The percentage of American adults planning a summer vacation this year has fallen from 53% to 46% since last year, according to a survey done by CNBC and Bankrate.
The same study showed that those who cited the hassle of traveling as a possible reason to delay has risen from 11% to 16%.
Fears of a recession, more job insecurity and tariff talk are causing an increasing number of Americans to take a wait-and-see attitude about future travel plans. A Bank of America report from March shows that spending for lodging, flights and touristic activities are all off year over year.
CNBC reports that, for the first time, 15% of respondents now list flight safety as a reason they are reconsidering current travel plans.
There is also data that shows that lower-income households are cutting back the most on vacation spending.
The Bank of America report reveals that wealthier Americans seem to be both aware and accepting of higher travel costs in Europe, and this is not resulting in any obvious cutback in demand.
Of course, inbound tourism figures mightily into the overall picture of our economic health going forward as well. And things aren't looking good there, either: Travel Weekly news editor Johanna Jainchill reported that the latest Economic Impact Research from the World Travel & Tourism Council and Oxford Economics said the U.S. is on track to lose $12.5 billion in international visitor spending this year.
Delta, United and several other domestic carriers have reported on earnings calls that they are projecting weaker outlooks tied to fewer Americans vacationing abroad but also, perhaps more importantly, to the decline of non-Americans flying for a vacation in the U.S.
What really has the analysts' attention is that a significant number of U.S. tourists are now turning away from France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Austria and Switzerland. We are also seeing a demonstrable turning-away from beach destinations with the likelihood of record-high temperatures.
What we are seeing, in its early stages, is a shift from our most popular European destinations to places like Japan, Iceland, Latin America and the U.S. When the final analysis is done, we may see a stronger euro, market saturation, concerns about a "welcoming attitude" in parts of the world that were once close allies, fear of flying hassles and the growing price differentials between domestic and international vacations as factors that will cause a shift in destination demographics.
Our Little Shop That Sells the World will experience some new challenges. But we never expected the world to make our work any easier.
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