What are the odds of a WNBA lockout? Our expert answers mailbag questions

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5 days ago

The drama of the WNBA season has not abated in the second half, with massive upsets, teams chasing playoff positioning, and the cloud of labor uncertainty looming over all of it. We're doing our best to assess all of it at The Athletic.
In today's WNBA mailbag, we'll dive into some of the big-picture questions regarding the league. Next week, we'll come back for more team-specific topics, including how franchises should prepare for the trade deadline on Aug. 7.
It *feels* like there are way more injuries this year than in the past few years. Is that true or just a skewed perception? If so, what long-term or structural solutions could there be to help keep players healthy? – Inocb99
The WNBA would argue that this is just a perception. When I asked commissioner Cathy Englebert about the rate of injury at All-Star Weekend, she said, 'I know there's been some very high-profile injuries. Our data would show there's no significant increase in injuries through the same number of games as last year.'
Independent data tracking from The Next Hoops would suggest otherwise. His research indicates that there have been 639 games lost to injury in 2025 compared to 711 during the entire 2024 season (as of July 31), and each team still has at least 16 games to play.
Assuming there has been an increase in injuries, there are many theories: the increased pace of play has made the game more physically demanding, youth basketball wears players down and contributes to overuse injuries, and the increased number of games is too taxing, among others. One thing is clear — player safety is imperative to the overall health of the league, and it is something that the WNBA continuously investigates, even if the league comes to different conclusions than the rest of us.
What do you think the odds are of there being a lockout for a significant length of time? And is there any indication the season might get longer (in terms of calendar days, not # of games)? – Chris H.
I would be surprised if a lockout extended into the start of the 2026 season and caused the league to miss games. There is so much momentum in the sport that both parties understand the risk of a stoppage, even if they are entertaining the possibility. At this moment, I would peg the odds of a lockout at 15 percent — not insignificant, but also not highly likely.
As far as the extension of the season, Engelbert indicated that the 2026 season (if it starts on time) could extend into November because the league might have to break for the FIBA World Cup in September. There doesn't seem to be an appetite for stretching the league's footprint beyond May to October unless there are extenuating circumstances, like the Olympics, though it's worth noting that the 2030 World Cup will be held after the WNBA season. Engelbert has said there could be 'leakage into November' but not a fundamental overhauling of the calendar.
What's up with the Liberty's obfuscation around injuries? I understand the strategic value of keeping things close to the chest. But are we really supposed to believe (coach Sandy Brondello) doesn't know what part of (Breanna Stewart's) leg is hurt? – Alexandra B.
For better or worse, the WNBA is starting to resemble other sports leagues, and that includes gamesmanship (to put it kindly) regarding proprietary information, including injury details. The Liberty have since announced that Stewart suffered a bone bruise in her knee, but that was hardly the most egregious injury shenanigans they engaged in this past week. They previously designated Kennedy Burke and Nyara Sabally as sitting out for 'rest', even though both had injuries. They have since been specified as knee and calf injuries, respectively. The Valkyries also reported Kayla Thornton as out for 'rest' before revealing that she had suffered a knee injury and had season-ending surgery.
Although coaches claiming not to know the status of their players (or their particular ailments) is annoying, that doesn't seem to be going away. The Sparks listed Rae Burell as out with a 'right leg' injury for up to eight weeks, but because she followed that timeline and came back within seven weeks, it didn't really matter what part of her leg she hurt.
Conflating rest with injury? That's an issue, especially for the league's gambling partners. My guess is the league office got a hold of the teams that have abused that distinction in recent days and put an end to it.
Given that off-season leagues sometimes pay more than the W, the players are given unique leverage where players in other U.S. leagues don't have the same options when negotiating new CBAs. If team owners and the union are still this far apart by the deadline as it is reported now, what are the chances the players have the owners sweat it out by playing in Europe or even use the stoppage as an opportunity to expand Unrivaled to a 'Summer League' edition? – Mike D. A
The problem with using Europe as a leverage play is that the majority of WNBA players would rather play domestically than have to go overseas for their full income. Part of the appeal of Unrivaled (and Athletes Unlimited before it) was to create an offseason option in the United States because living abroad for half the year is challenging for players and their families.
That said, Unrivaled's success is a useful piece of leverage because it provides the players everything that they are asking of the WNBA, including an equity share in the business and minimum workplace standards. Rest assured, the league took note of the positive press Unrivaled generated during its debut season. The scale of Unrivaled is currently too small to support the entire WNBA player pool — and it's an entirely different style of basketball — so it can't completely take the place of the W, but it is at least a model for how a league can be more player-friendly. For now, the 36 Unrivaled players can't turn their back on the remaining 100-plus players who don't play in the 3×3 league, meaning the WNBA still has some leverage of its own as a bigger entity.
You guys have previously reported on the WNBA officiating troubles. Is the CBA the (only, primary?) vehicle for addressing this issue? What other avenues are available? What is the likelihood that the upcoming CBA meaningfully tackles this (if that is where it is addressed)? – K.L.
Refereeing isn't collectively bargained. It is governed by the league office, in a manner similar to that of the NBA. Referees are trained by the same standards across the WNBA, NBA and G League, and independent evaluators review every call in every game.
Nevertheless, the quality of WNBA officiating does not seem on par with its brother league, as many players, coaches and executives complain about the lack of consistency. One of the issues is WNBA officials' pay relative to the NBA. NBA referees are full-time, salaried employees, but their WNBA counterparts are paid per game. The best officials are often promoted to the NBA, creating significant turnover in the WNBA.
There is a groundswell of support to address officiating in the WNBA — in fairness, no one in any league ever seems too happy with the quality of refereeing. However, this would be independent of labor negotiations and most likely require better compensation for the officials so they don't feel the need to make the NBA their end goal.
On the topic of coaching, a bunch of Qs:
• Will coaching salaries increase with the new media rights deal?
• How do general managers scout coaches, and how do they grade them?- Since teams may look completely different next year with all the free agents, would we expect teams to take advantage of the opportunity to make major coaching changes? – INocb99
There is no salary cap for coaches. Their salaries would only be tied to the new media rights deal in that organizations might be emboldened to spend more freely. Currently, multiple WNBA coaches make more than seven figures annually, even as the individual player maximum salary is about $250,000.
Given the historic turnover in the coaching ranks last offseason, when seven teams changed coaches in addition to Golden State hiring its first head coach, a massive changeup this year is unlikely. Some executives said that the impending uncertainty of the 2026 offseason made organizations proactively get their coaches in place for a year first, before the flurry of player movement.
WNBA coaches come from all over. College coaches are increasingly likely to turn to the professional game due to an improved work-life balance; two became head coaches in 2024 (Karl Smesko and Lynne Roberts). Former assistants can make the promotion to head coach, like Chris Koclanes and the Las Vegas Aces duo of Natalie Nakase and Tyler Marsh. Coaches come from overseas or NBA backgrounds. The league is becoming a more attractive destination in terms of the quality of play and the salaries for coaches. WNBA teams no longer have to stretch to find qualified coaches.
This is so far out, but how do you see division/conference realignment after expansion in 2030? Which option seems more likely?
• Option 1
West: Seattle, Portland, Golden State, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, Minnesota, Chicago
East: Indiana, Detroit, Cleveland, Toronto, Philadelphia, New York, Connecticut, Washington, Atlanta
Teams play 42 games: Home/Away against everyone (34 games) and another time against their conference (8 games)
• Option 2
West: Seattle, Portland, Golden State, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, PhoenixCentral: Dallas, Minnesota, Chicago, Indiana, Detroit, Cleveland
East: Toronto, Philadelphia, New York Connecticut, Washington, Atlanta
Teams play 44 games: Home/Away against everyone (34 games) and another Home/Away against their division (10 games)
–Joshua B.
A fun one! Given the WNBA's close ties to the NBA, my guess would be the first option, but I personally prefer the second. At the very least, use the second set-up for the Commissioner's Cup; add one wild-card team with the best second-place record for a four-team semifinal and a final in the in-season tournament.
The real question is whether the WNBA will revert to conference-based playoff seeding with expansion. The 1-1-1 three-game series in the first round will be a huge travel test. Seattle and Atlanta would currently match up as No. 4 vs No. 5, and that's about the longest trip possible in the league. Western and Eastern conference playoffs would avoid that type of travel nightmare until the finals, and they might help engender the rivalries that the WNBA desires with repeated postseason meetings.
With the rapid expansion of the league in the next few years, what is the feeling around the league about the talent and level of play going down? It's clear that the league can support a couple more competitive teams (like Golden State) but in 3-4 years will we see a more tiered league? – Kristen O.
There are varied opinions on how many teams the WNBA can support. In general, there is more concern about the overall league infrastructure holding up for 18 teams than the talent and level of play being compromised. Some like the exclusivity of the WNBA and the fact that every night pits All-Stars and Olympians against each other. Others are happy to create more jobs and are confident that the college pipeline will provide enough capable players.
As far as level of play, the 2025 season is already starting to see the effects of expansion on the best teams. Minnesota and New York could really use Cecilia Zandalisini and Kayla Thornton (at least pre-injury) in their attempts to return to the finals. It's harder to build deeper teams when the talent is spread out.
Expansion might actually create more parity than a tiered league. There are more places for stars to spread out, and it will be harder to consolidate them on one team, especially if the expansion teams prove to be desirable locations like Golden State.
Who is your favorite WNBA player? Why? – Abby L.
My favorite WNBA player of all-time is Maya Moore. The first time I got to see her play at UConn, it looked like she existed in a different physical realm than every other player on the court, which had eight other future WNBA players, one of whom became a Finals MVP. Moore had a fluidity and grace and could move in a way that seemed impossible. She also had such joy on the court at all times. A one-of-one talent in WNBA history.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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