Dubai luxury real estate supply shortage could see 2025 price rises – just where will the ultrarich live?
Over the past ten years, sales of luxury Dubai villas and apartments valued above AED15m ($4.1m) have risen dramatically, reaching AED71bn ($19.3bn) in 2024 for the second year in a row, an increase of almost 688 per cent since 2015.
However, while just over 326,000 are properties currently under construction in Dubai, a fäm Properties report reveals a clear picture of the limited number of luxury or ultra-luxury properties that will enter the market over the next two to three years.
Luxury Dubai real estate
It says a scarcity of ready properties in particular, amid keen buyer and investor interest, will support continued price growth in 2025. The latest data from DXBinteract, shows that only 16,500 units being built are in the luxury or ultra-luxury sectors as follows:
AED5-10m ($1.4m-$2.72m): 10,209 units
AED10-15m ($2.72m-$4.1m): 2,360 units
AED15-30m ($4.1m-48.2m): 2,831 units
AED30-60m ($8.2m-$16.3m): 809 units
AED60m+ ($16.3m): 330 units
In addition, the vast majority of these are a long way from completion, with 72 per cent in the 0-20 per cent range in terms of construction progress.
Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties, said: 'These figures underscore a restricted supply of ultra-luxury properties, indicating a highly exclusive and limited market, with demand expected to stay strong for at least the next two to three years.
'Beyond that, the balance of supply and demand will depend on how new projects are received. But if the forecasted inflow of around 6,500 HNWIs per year holds true through 2024-2026, we're likely to experience steady demand, supporting price appreciation.'
For 2025, fäm Lux, the luxury division of fäm Properties, has a target of AED10bn ($2.72bn) in sales transactions. Meanwhile, Nordic by fäm, the group's boutique developer specialising in bespoke villas, expects to achieve AED1bn ($272m) in sales from ready ultra-luxury villas.
As Dubai's ultra-luxury market matures, a shortage of villas and growing competition in the apartment market are shaping buyer preferences and developer strategies.
Prime land for ultra-luxury villas in areas like Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah Bay Island, and Emirates Hills is extremely limited, resulting in a critically short supply keeping demand consistently high.
Demand for ready ultra-luxury apartments alsoremains significantly higher than supply, driving prices up. Buyers are focused on true branded residences with a genuine luxury element.
Supply and demand for apartments in the resale sector are relatively balanced. Buyers also have options in developments nearing completion. Demand for off-plan branded apartments remains strong, with developers like Sobha, Emaar, and DAMAC giving investors more options.
Absorption rates for newly launched branded residences have shifted as a result of greater supply.
Developers are finding it harder to replicate the instant sell-outs of two years ago, when fäm Properties took AED1bn ($272m) worth of bookings for the Bvlgari Lighthouse within 24 hours.
Another new trend sees buyers in the ultra-luxury segment prioritising boutique, limited-supply developments which retain higher levels of exclusivity and command premium prices.
Meanwhile, in the off-plan market, developers partnering with international brands new to Dubai are attracting global investors and adding unique value to new projects.
'In the wake of all these shifts, the underlying fundamentals remain strong,' says Al Msaddi. 'With careful planning, unique designs, and exclusive offerings, developers and investors alike can thrive in this booming segment.'
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