Editorial: Japan needs bold new policies as births fell below 700,000 for 1st time in 2024

The Mainichi

18 hours ago

Japan's population decline is accelerating much faster than predicted by the government. The nation cannot afford to ignore this inconvenient truth.
The number of births among Japanese citizens in 2024 stood at 686,061, falling below 700,000 for the first time since record-keeping began. The figure had dropped below 800,000 just two years earlier. The total fertility rate, defined as the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, also hit a record low of 1.15.
Japan has spent the past 30 years implementing policy measures to tackle the falling birth rate. Yet, far from stopping, the decline continues to accelerate -- progressing about 15 years ahead of what the government previously considered a realistic scenario. At this rate, the country faces a shrinking workforce and consumer base, threatening to sap the vitality of society.
The number of marriages has also dropped sharply, falling 40% from approximately 800,000 in 2001. Anxiety among young people about their futures is cited as one contributing factor.
While overall employment conditions are improving, there remain significant wage disparities depending on company size and employment status. Additionally, rising housing costs in urban areas are straining household budgets. Improvements in wages and working conditions are urgently needed.
The current situation in which domestic chores and child care responsibilities fall disproportionately on women must also change. Many women view marriage and childbirth as obstacles to building their careers.
The administration of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida introduced what it called "unprecedented measures to reverse the declining birth rate," including expansions in child allowances and childcare leave benefits. While up to 3.6 trillion yen (about $24.8 billion) has been allocated, these policy initiatives largely remain extensions of previous ones, making their potential effectiveness uncertain.
More fundamentally, the government must carefully reevaluate whether these moves meet the actual needs of the younger generation.
Public perceptions regarding family and work have significantly evolved. Some young people feel a fundamental disconnect with Japan's marriage system, which effectively requires women to change their surnames, and with employment practices that assume long hours and frequent job relocations. Policymakers must begin by identifying these structural issues.
If the current pace of population decline persists, the number of working-age people in Japan will drastically decrease, threatening the sustainability of public pensions. This could lead even more individuals to hesitate over life decisions such as marriage and having children, creating another vicious cycle.
Policies based on outdated assumptions will undoubtedly fail to resolve these challenges. The government must adopt a sense of crisis and urgently take up bold new ideas and approaches.