NPC Rugby: Where will the Ranfurly Shield reside this summer?
The iconic log o' wood
Perhaps the most prestigious and coveted prize in New Zealand Rugby, besides the Web Ellis Trophy. Introduced in 1904, the shield has sat centre stage for some of the greatest matches played on this country's fields. While fanfare surrounding Super Rugby has dwindled badly in the last decade, and the glory days of the NPC are long dead, the passion, pride, and parochialism the shield evokes ensure that from Kaitāia to Bluff, the game's heart still beats.
The holders
The Taranaki Bulls brought an end to Tasman's historic inaugural Shield run in Nelson on October 6, breaking Mako hearts with a 42-29 victory.
They have since defended it twice against Heartland opposition, 78-7 over King Country, and 97-0 over Thames Valley. Taranaki will have to see off five more challenges in 2025 in order to lock the shield away for summer. It's a tough road to securing the shield for Taranaki, but not beyond the realms. Bay of Plenty and Hawke's Bay will no doubt present formidable challenges in New Plymouth.
The scenarios
Okay, so let's assume no side will defend the shield this season, and it changes hands at every opportunity. Where does it end up?
Northland could take the shield from Taranaki in round one, and if they do so, their next challenge will be Southland.
If Southland wins, their next challenge would be Manawatu.
If Manawatu wins, their next challenge would be Wellington.
If Wellington wins, their next challenge would be Auckland.
If Auckland wins, their next challenge would be Manawatu.
If Manawatu wins, their next challenge would be Bay of Plenty.
If Bay of Plenty wins, their next challenge would be Waikato.
If Waikato win, their next challenge would be Northland.
If Northland won, the shield would spend its summer in Whangarei.
All right, so that's a bit extreme, so let's look at a more likely potential outcome.
If Taranaki beat Northland but lost to Waikato in round four, the Mooloos would have a relatively comfortable first defence against Southland and then a slightly tougher assignment against North Harbour before a final round defence against Northland. Waikato will end 2025 with three successful defences with the shield to reside in Hamilton.
My pick
Taranaki will see off Northland and Waikato, but their reign will be ended at the hands of Bay of Plenty. The Steamers will hold it for less than a week, though, with Hawke's Bay spoiling the party in Tauranga. The Magpies will prevail in the battle of the bays and will then need just one defence in order to lock away the shield post-season, against Auckland, which they will do in dramatic fashion at McLean Park with a try on the siren.
RNZ's predicted summer home for the Ranfurly Shield - Napier.
Your side's road to Ranfurly glory:
Taranaki - Reigns - 8; most recent - 2024.
Holders - Five defences vs Northland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Hawke's Bay, and Wellington.
Second chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, Southland beat Waikato in week five, Canterbury beat Southland in week six, Canterbury defend against Tasman in week seven and Otago in week eight, Taranaki challenge Canterbury in week ten.
Third chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland in week two, Tasman beat Northland in week three, Otago beat Tasman in week five, Otago defend against Northland, Taranaki challenge Otago in week seven.
Northland - Reigns - 4; most recent - 1978.
Challenge - Taranaki in week one.
Second chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, defend against Southland and North Harbour, Northland challenge Waikato in week 10.
Third chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, defend against Southland in week five, North Harbour beat Waikato in week seven, Northland challenge North Harbour in week eight.
Waikato - Reigns - 13; most recent - 2018.
Challenge - Taranaki in week four
Second chance - Bay of Plenty beat Taranaki in week five and Hawke's Bay in week seven, Waikato challenge Bay of Plenty in week nine.
Third chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, Southland beat Northland in week two, Manawatu beat Southland in week three, Manawatu beat Wellington in week four, Waikato challenge Manawatu in week six.
Bay of Plenty - Reigns- 1; most recent - 2004.
Challenge - Taranaki in week six
Second chance - Wellington beat Taranaki in week nine, Bay of Plenty challenge Wellington in week 10
Third chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland, lose to Tasman in week three, Tasman defend against Otago, Auckland beat Tasman in week six, Manawatu beat Auckland in week seven, Bay of Plenty challenge Manawatu in week eight.
Hawke's Bay - Reigns - 7; most recent - 2024.
Challenge - Taranaki in week eight
Second chance - Bay of Plenty beat Taranaki in week six, Hawke's Bay challenge Bay of Plenty in week seven.
Third chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland and Tasman, Hawke's Bay challenge Northland in week five.
Wellington - Reigns- 11; most recent - 2022.
Challenge - Taranaki in week nine
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, Southland beat Northland in week two, Manawatu beat Southland in week three, Wellington challenge Manawatu in week four.
Third chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland, Tasman and Hawke's Bay, Wellington challenge Northland in week seven.
North Harbour - Reigns- 1; most recent - 2006.
Best chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, defend against Southland, North Harbour challenge Waikato in week seven.
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland in week two, lose to Tasman in week three, Otago beat Tasman in week five, defend against Northland and Taranaki, North Harbour challenge Otago in week nine.
Auckland - Reigns- 16; most recent- 2007.
Best chance - Hawke's Bay beat Taranaki in week eight, Auckland challenge Hawke's Bay in week nine.
Second chance - Bay of Plenty beat Taranaki in week six, Hawke's Bay beat Bay of Plenty in week seven, Auckland challenge Hawke's Bay in week nine.
Counties Manukau - Reigns- 1; most recent- 2013.
Best chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland, Tasman beat Northland in week three, defend against Otago, Auckland and Waikato, Counties Manukau challenge Tasman in week ten.
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, Southland beat Northland in week two, defend against Manawatu and Canterbury, Counties Manukau challenge Southland in week seven.
Manawatu - Reigns - 1; most recent- 1976.
Best chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, Southland beat Northland in week two, Manawatu challenge Southland in week three.
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in round one, defend against Southland in week two, Tasman beat Northland in week three, defend against Otago, Auckland beat Tasman in week six, Manawatu challenge Auckland in week seven.
Tasman - Reigns- 1; most recent- 2024.
Best chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland in week two, Tasman challenge Northland in week three.
Second chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, Southland beat Waikato in week five, Canterbury beat Southland in week six, Tasman challenge Canterbury in week seven.
Canterbury - Reigns- 16; most recent- 2019.
Best chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, Southland beat Waikato in week five, Canterbury challenge Southland in week six.
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland, Tasman, Hawke's Bay and Wellington, Canterbury challenge Northland in week nine.
Otago - Reigns- 7; most recent- 2020.
Best chance - Hawke's Bay beat Taranaki in week eight, Auckland beat Hawke's Bay in week nine, Otago challenge Auckland in week 10.
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, defend against Southland in week two, lose to Tasman in week three, Otago challenge Tasman week five.
Southland - Reigns- 7; most recent- 2011.
Best chance - Waikato beat Taranaki in week four, Southland challenge Waikato in week five.
Second chance - Northland beat Taranaki in week one, Southland challenge Northland in week two.
The battle for the Ranfurly Shield will be fierce and long. Photo / Paul Taylor
Taranaki squad
Scott Barrett**, Beauden Barrett**, Jordie Barrett**, Kaylum Boshier, Logan Crowley, Hemopo Cunningham, Meihana Grindlay, Harry Hansen*, Josh Jacomb, Josh Lord, Perry Lawrence, Adam Lennox, Michael Loft, Brayton Northcott-Hill, Mitch O'Neill, Reuben O'Neill, Jesse Parete, JJ Pokai, Arese Poliko, Jared Proffit, Taniela Rakuro*, Daniel Rona, Willem Ratu, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, Leone Nawai, Obey Samate, Fiti Sa, Jayden Sa, Josh Setu, Bradley Slater, Vereniki Tikoisolomone, Tupou Vaa'i**, Sage Walters-Hansen*, Keightley Watson*.
*yet to debut
**All Black
The challengers
Northland
Week one
Saturday, August 2
7.10pm
Waikato
Week four
Saturday, August 23
2.05pm
Bay of Plenty
Week six
Sunday, September 7
2.05pm
Hawke's Bay
Week eight
Friday, September 19
7.10pm
Wellington
Week nine
Saturday, September 27
2.05pm
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They have the Ranfurly Shield, though, and a team list chock-full of talent again. Hooker Ricky Riccitelli is one of the more effective players for the Bulls and nabbed a team-high eight tries. And watch out for Highlanders fullback Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens. TASMAN Last year: Eliminated in quarterfinals. The oil: Blockbusting outside back Leicester Fainga'anuku is returning for the Mako and he will make their backline infinitely more dangerous. They have also signed promising first five Harry Inch, powerful Australian utility forward Lopeti Faifua and Moana Pasifika hooker Tomasi Maka. Canterbury halfback Mitchell Drummond has made the move as well. HAWKE'S BAY Last year: Eliminated in quarterfinals. The oil: Moana Pasifika blindside Miracle Fai'ilagi and Māori All Black utility back Zarn Sullivan will play for the Magpies. Sullivan is on loan from Auckland and Fai'ilagi's bruising game will be a welcome addition. The Magpies were edged 19-17 in the quarterfinals by rival Bay of Plenty. COUNTIES-MANUKAU Last year: Eliminated in quarterfinals. The oil: No-one wanted to play the Steelers towards the end of the season. They started with four consecutive losses but charged up the ladder and into the playoffs, where they were beaten 29-14 by the eventual champions. Powerhouse No8 Hoskins Sotutu shapes as a key figure again. OTAGO Last year: Ninth. The oil: Missed the playoffs by a couple of bonus points. But it was the costly 45-17 loss to Counties-Manukau that sank their prospects. Looked good in a warm-up game against Southland. Winger Jona Nareki has recovered from a knee injury but Oliver Haig will miss the first month of the competition, and exciting fullback Finn Hurley is out for up to two months. Halfback Dylan Pledger is a very promising player. NORTH HARBOUR Last year: 10th. The oil: Former Steelers coach Jimmy Maher has taken over the reins and his first job is to sort out their lineout troubles and defensive leaks. They can score, though. Winger Mark Tele'a appears set for a full campaign unless he gets a call back from the All Blacks. Outside back Kade Banks was the competition's leading try-scorer, bagging 10. All Blacks loose forward Wallace Sititi might pop up late in the season if he is fully fit. AUCKLAND Last year: 11th. The oil: Auckland started with four consecutive losses and rounded out their campaign with three more losses. There was not much to celebrate. They have signed former Otago halfback James Arscott, Stephen Perofeta has transferred from Taranaki, and former New Zealand under-20 player Leo Gordon and Highlanders back-up lock Tai Cribb have joined the squad. SOUTHLAND Last year: 12th. The oil: Former Canterbury halfback Nic Shearer has made the move south and the Stags will be captained by Sean Withy again. Burly No 8 Semisi Tupou-Ta'eiloa is a strong ball-carrier. The Stags will struggle to make the playoffs. But as long as they beat Otago in round one, all will be well in Invercargill. Look out for development player Mika Muliaina. The Southlander has impressed in Dunedin club rugby this season and the young first five has all the skills to take his game to the next level. NORTHLAND Last year: 13th. The oil: They challenge Taranaki for the Ranfurly Shield in the opening round and they have not held it aloft since 1978. The Taniwha have a light splattering of talent, but the playoffs seem unlikely. That makes game one all or nothing. First five Rivez Reihana will lead the team around. MANAWATŪ Last year: Last. The oil: The Turbos have the silliest nickname in the competition. They are also based in Palmerston North. That's two strikes. Loose forwards TK Howden and Brayden Iose will give the pack some go-forward and Brett Cameron is an experienced first five. Highlanders fill-in Taniela Filimone is a strong runner.
