Thune heads into a perilous vote-a-rama
IN TODAY'S EDITION:— Senate amendment fights to watch— House readies mid-week megabill vote— Don Bacon, Dusty Johnson to announce House exits
The Senate's 'big, beautiful' vote-a-rama starts in just over four hours — and nobody knows how it's going to end.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune can only lose one more vote with Sens. Rand Paul and Thom Tillis already opposed. As Senate GOP leaders scramble to strike deals to keep the bill on track, House Republicans are drawing red lines, with fiscal hawks threatening to tank the bill over the Senate's budget framework and moderates balking at the provider-tax crackdown.
Here are the big fights we're watching when amendment votes kick off at 9 a.m., leading to a final vote on passage late tonight or early Tuesday:
Medicaid: Sen. Rick Scott's proposal to curb a key Medicaid funding mechanism after 2030 has Thune's support as part of a deal struck to get the Florida senator and a handful of other holdouts to advance the megabill to debate.
If it fails, it could cost leadership some fiscal hawks, though Sens. Scott and Ron Johnson refused to go there Sunday night, our Jordain Carney writes in. If it passes, it could alienate so-called Medicaid moderates. One of them, Sen. Susan Collins, filed an amendment that would double the stabilization fund for rural hospitals to $50 billion, and pay for it by adding a 39.6-percent bracket on earners making over $25 million.
Medicaid moderates could also try to further water down the bill's cut to the provider tax. Keep an eye on Tillis, now unburdened by a reelection bid, who slammed the Medicaid cuts in a fiery floor speech Sunday and might jump in again. Another key player to watch is Sen. Lisa Murkowski and whether her support slips after the parliamentarian derailed Medicaid-payment provisions aimed at winning over the Alaskan. The parliamentarian also, as of early this morning, had yet to rule on food-aid waivers for Alaska that could affect Murkowski's vote.
Green credits: Moderates including Tillis and Sen. John Curtis could offer amendments to soften the bill's deep cuts against wind and solar energy, including its crackdown on IRA credits and a new excise tax, our Josh Siegel writes in. That could provoke a fight with House conservatives and the White House, which have pushed for aggressive rollbacks.
AI: Commerce Chair Ted Cruz and Sen. Marsha Blackburn are pitching a plan to cut the megabill's 10-year moratorium on state enforcement of AI laws in half and make accommodations for internet protections, our Mohar Chatterjee writes in.
The grand finale could be a manager's amendment that House GOP leaders are pushing for to further resolve differences between the chambers and speed the bill to Trump by Friday. The House is scheduled to vote as soon as Wednesday at 9 a.m.
GOOD MONDAY MORNING. You bring the snacks, we'll bring the live vote-a-rama coverage at politico.com/congress.
Email us at lkashinsky@politico.com and mmccarthy@politico.com.
THE SKED
The House is out but will hold a pro forma session at 2 p.m.
The Senate is in session and will begin voting on amendments for the megabill at 9 a.m.
The rest of the week: The House plans to vote on the megabill as soon as Wednesday morning.
THE LEADERSHIP SUITE
Jeffries declines to endorse Mamdani
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday he's not ready to endorse Zohran Mamdani, who won the New York Democratic mayoral primary last week.
The Brooklyn Democrat said he doesn't know Mamdani well and that their districts don't overlap, but added that he's hoping to sit down and 'discuss his vision for moving the city forward.' Mamdani, who identifies as a democratic socialist, has been criticized for his pro-Palestine positions and comments about Israel, a concern Jeffries addressed.
'With respect to the Jewish communities that I represent,' Jeffries said, 'I think our nominee is going to have to convince folks that he is prepared to aggressively address the rise in antisemitism in the city of New York, which has been an unacceptable development.'
POLICY RUNDOWN
FARM FIGHT IN THE MEGABILL — Dozens of agriculture groups are urging senators to oppose an amendment from Sen. Chuck Grassley that would limit income thresholds of farmers who can receive federal aid, Meredith Lee Hill reports.
A host of farm-state GOP senators also oppose Grassley's push, three people granted anonymity told Meredith. Some are concerned that liberal senators could join with conservative fiscal hawks to pass the amendment.
CHAMBER OPPOSES CLEAN-ENERGY TAX — The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Solar Energy Industry Association are slamming a new addition to the megabill that would tax solar and wind projects that have components from foreign sources, including China.
'Taxing energy production is never good policy, whether oil & gas or, in this case, renewables,' Chamber executive vice president and chief policy officer Neil Bradley wrote on X. 'Electricity demand is set to see enormous growth & this tax will increase prices.'
Some manufacturer interests including the Coalition for a Prosperous America and First Solar are supporting the provision, which they see as a measure to crack down on Chinese manufacturing.
Best of POLITICO Pro and E&E:
CAMPAIGN STOP
TILLIS SHAKES UP SENATE MAP — Democrats are eyeing a prime new pickup opportunity in North Carolina as Tillis retires. Their potentially most formidable candidate, former Gov. Roy Cooper, is expected to decide this summer whether he'll run for the seat. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel is already in the race. The possible Republican field includes Lara Trump, who is considering a campaign; RNC Chair Michael Whatley, whom the White House considers a strong candidate; and Rep. Pat Harrigan, whom some in Trump's orbit are also promoting, Lisa reports with our Nicholas Wu, Elena Schneider and Dasha Burns.
BACON, JOHNSON TO ANNOUNCE HOUSE EXITS — Rep. Don Bacon is expected to announce his retirement today, two people familiar with his plans told Meredith. The centrist Republican's Nebraska seat is a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats; it's one of only three GOP-held districts Kamala Harris won in 2024. Douglas County Sheriff Aaron Hanson has spoken with GOP operatives about the race, per Meredith.
Rep. Dusty Johnson is expected to announce a bid for South Dakota governor today, two people familiar with his planning told Meredith. He'll be the eighth House Republican to run for higher office in 2026.
POTENTIAL MASSIE CHALLENGER INCOMING — White House officials will host Kentucky state Sen. Aaron Reed in the coming weeks to discuss a primary campaign against Rep. Thomas Massie, Lisa scooped with our Rachael Bade and Ben Jacobs.
Massie endorsed Reed's run for state Senate in 2021, and Reed in return called the representative 'one of America's greatest Congressmen.'
CONNOLLY AIDE WINS SNAP PRIMARY — James Walkinshaw, a former top aide to the late Rep. Gerry Connolly, won the Democratic nomination to succeed his longtime boss, making him the favorite to win the suburban Virginia district.
As our Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing reported over the weekend, Connolly's social media accounts and campaign email list posthumously promoted Walkinshaw's campaign — one of several instances of lawmakers posting from the grave.
THE BEST OF THE REST
Lindsey Graham Swayed Trump on Striking Iran. Here's What's Next. from Siobhan Hughes, Eliza Collins and Meridith McGraw at The Wall Street Journal
'Multiple full-time jobs': Inside the life of young parents in Congress, from Cami Mondeaux at Deseret News
JOB BOARD
Claire Trokey, a policy adviser for House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, is leaving to join LinkedIn's U.S. public policy team. Trokey will lead the company's engagement with the Trump administration and congressional Republicans.
Adam Taylor, the former military legislative assistant and legislative director for Rep. Scott Peters, is now his Washington chief of staff.
John Crews will serve as deputy assistant secretary for Treasury's Office of Financial Institutions Policy. Prior to joining Treasury, he served as a policy adviser to Scalise and covered economic and financial services policy. Before that, Crews was policy director of the Senate Banking Committee.
Connor Dunn will serve as deputy assistant secretary for Treasury's Office of Legislative Affairs, covering banking and finance. Prior to joining Treasury, Dunn was at FS Vector, a strategic consulting firm. He's an alum of the Senate Banking and House Financial Services committees.
Spencer Hurwitz will serve as deputy assistant secretary for Treasury's public affairs office, covering terrorism and financial intelligence. He previously served as director of comms and senior adviser to Sen. Marsha Blackburn, a member of the Senate Finance Committee.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Blake Nanney of the American Cleaning Institute … Kyle Plotkin … former Rep. Barbara Comstock … Dan Leistikow … Dan Judy of North Star Opinion Research … Kara Adame … Zack Christenson … Eve Sparks of Rep. Jeff Crank's office … Adam Kennedy
TRIVIA
FRIDAY'S ANSWER: Jeff Jenks correctly answered that the House Agriculture Committee celebrated its 200th birthday in 2020.
TODAY'S QUESTION, from Mia: What is the highest number of roll call votes that have been offered during a vote-a-rama and in what year?
The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.
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