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'I think the trade deals are working out very well — hopefully for everybody, but for the United States they're very, very good,' the president said Tuesday while flying home to Washington from Scotland. Yet while the scale of America's tariff wall is becoming clearer, other details remain fuzzy in the extreme – especially investment promised by counterparties, which on paper exceeds $1 trillion for the EU and Japan deals alone. For Trump, these capital pledges are evidence that his protectionist agenda is on course to do what he promised it would: revive American manufacturing and create jobs. If actual investment falls short of the big numbers, tariffs could end up boosting revenue for the government – and costs for US consumers and companies – while failing to achieve those loftier goals. 'Signing Bonus' Trump's deal with Japan includes a $550 billion fund that the US called a 'foreign investment commitment,' and the president said amounts to 'a sort of signing bonus.' But Japanese officials said only 1% or 2% of the total – a maximum $11 billion — would be investment, with the rest essentially made up of loans. And they said the 90%-10% profit split in America's favor highlighted by Trump's team only applies to that smaller investment portion. At minimum, the two countries are describing the accord differently, raising the potential for future snags. 'It's not that $550 billion in cash will be sent to the US,' Japan's top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said. But Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick put it this way, speaking last week to Fox News: 'This is literally the Japanese government giving Donald Trump $550 billion.' Lutnick said Trump would increase tariffs again if Japan reneged on the fund. As for the EU deal, he acknowledged on Tuesday that there's 'plenty of horse-trading left to do.' The EU pledged $600 billion in new investments. European officials say the target is just an aggregate of promises by companies, and the bloc can't commit to a binding target. Neither side has spelled out the contents. 'Basically they're going to build the factories,' Lutnick told Fox News Monday. 'All the car companies committed they're going to build the factories. The pharmaceutical companies have gone out and said they're going to build these factories.' The EU also promised energy purchases from the US worth $750 billion over the next three years — roughly triple the current pace. That target could strain the capacity of American exporters as well as European importers, some analysts say. Aside from the tariff rates, much of the recent deals consist of 'vague promises with large numbers attached that don't have any mechanisms for follow-through,' said Alex Jacquez, who served on the Biden administration's National Economic Council. 'Nobody seems to believe that these checks as written are actually going to cash.' Russia Wildcard There's more clarity around the tariff numbers, though they're still in flux too. Trump will raise duties on most imports from Japan and the EU to 15% from the current 10%. Those partners will get a partial waiver on certain industry-specific US tariffs that carry higher rates worldwide – like for automobiles – but not on others like steel and aluminum, where talks on an exemption involving quotas continue. The revised auto tariffs on Japan and the EU are not yet finalized but are expected to take effect on Aug. 1, according to a White House official. Europeans are pushing for further exemptions, especially for its wine and spirits industry. Trump says there are more of these sectoral tariffs to come, and some of his recent deals may cause confusion by preempting yet-to-be-announced numbers. For instance, he pledged 15% tariffs for the EU on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals — two sectors where rates haven't been finalized. A senior US official also said that Trump agreed to grant Japan whatever the lowest rate is for those two categories, but that commitment isn't in the public US fact sheet. A White House official said that the lower 15% rates for pharmaceuticals and chips would only kick-in once higher levies Trump has threatened under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act take effect. 'Always Willing' Other already-announced deals have raised questions too – like the one with Vietnam earlier this month, which appears to have surprised officials in Hanoi with a tariff of 20%, higher than they were said to have agreed to. US and Chinese negotiators, after two days of talks in Sweden this week, said they're on track to extend the tariff truce between the two countries. A wildcard there is Trump's threat to impose new charges on countries that buy energy from Russia. China is the biggest buyer of Russian oil — followed by India. Trump announced a 25% tariff rate for India in a social media post early Wednesday, 'PLUS A PENALTY' due to its energy purchases from Moscow, starting on Aug. 1. He didn't specify the size of the extra charge. The fate of the two biggest US trade partners also seems to be headed down to the wire. Trump has downplayed the chance of a deal with Canada, though Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney shrugged that off. Both Canada and Mexico face tariff hikes this week, but they won't apply across the board. Goods compliant with the USMCA trade pact are poised to maintain their current exemption, a major relief for both countries. Some critics say the administration's deal-by-deal approach to tariff rates risks ending up as a patchwork that lacks coherence. US auto companies, for example, objected to the Japan agreement, saying imported cars that don't have any US content are set to be taxed less than North American-built models that do. For all the unresolved questions, the administration is casting Aug. 1 as something of a milestone in setting rates after months of threats. It's just not likely to be the final word in Trump's rolling dealmaking. Several more pacts are very close, and tariff rates will either be agreed or imposed by Aug. 1, Kevin Hassett – head of the White House National Economic Council – said on Tuesday. But even after that, 'people can continue to negotiate,' he said. 'The president is always willing to negotiate.' --With assistance from Jennifer A. Dlouhy and John Harney. (Updates throughout with India tariff rate, more EU talks) It's Not Just Tokyo and Kyoto: Tourists Descend on Rural Japan Burning Man Is Burning Through Cash Everyone Loves to Hate Wind Power. Scotland Found a Way to Make It Pay Off Cage-Free Eggs Are Booming in the US, Despite Cost and Trump's Efforts Russia Builds a New Web Around Kremlin's Handpicked Super App ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
