Trump's Vision: One World, Three Powers?

New York Times

26-05-2025

For President Trump, anytime is a good time for deal-making, but never more so than now with the leaders of China and Russia.
Last week, Mr. Trump said he wanted to normalize commerce with Russia, appearing to lessen the pressure on Moscow to settle its war with Ukraine. And he is trying to limit the fallout from his own global trade war by urging China's leader to call him.
'We all want to make deals,' Mr. Trump said in a recent interview with Time magazine. 'But I am this giant store. It's a giant, beautiful store, and everybody wants to go shopping there.'
Mr. Trump may have something even bigger in mind involving Russia and China, and it would be the ultimate deal.
His actions and statements suggest he might be envisioning a world in which each of the three so-called great powers — the United States, China and Russia — dominates its part of the globe, some foreign policy analysts say.
It would be a throwback to a 19th-century style of imperial rule.
Mr. Trump has said he wants to take Greenland from Denmark, annex Canada and re-establish American control of the Panama Canal. Those bids to extend U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere are the clearest signs yet of his desire to create a sphere of influence in the nation's backyard.
He has criticized allies and talked about withdrawing U.S. troops from around the globe. That could benefit Russia and China, which seek to diminish the American security presence in Europe and Asia. Mr. Trump often praises President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping, China's leader, as strong and smart men who are his close friends.
To that end, Mr. Trump has been trying to formalize Russian control of some Ukrainian territory — and American access to Ukraine's minerals — as part of a potential peace deal that critics say would effectively carve up Ukraine, similar to what great powers did in the age of empires. Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin spoke about Ukraine in a two-hour phone call on last week.
'The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent,' Mr. Trump wrote on social media.
Monica Duffy Toft, a professor of international politics at Tufts University's Fletcher School, said that the leaders of the United States, Russia and China are all striving for 'an imaginary past that was freer and more glorious.'
'Commanding and extending spheres of influence appears to restore a fading sense of grandeur,' she wrote in a new essay in Foreign Affairs magazine. The term 'spheres of influence' originated at the Berlin Conference of 1884-5, in which European powers adopted a formal plan to carve up Africa.
Some close observers of Mr. Trump, including officials from his first administration, caution against thinking his actions and statements are strategic. While Mr. Trump might have strong, long-held attitudes about a handful of issues, notably immigration and trade, he does not have a vision of a world order, they argue.
Yet there are signs that Mr. Trump and perhaps some of his aides are thinking in the manner that emperors once did when they conceived of spheres of influence.
'The best evidence is Trump's desire to expand America's overt sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere,' said Stephen Wertheim, a historian of U.S. foreign policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
But setting up a sphere of influence in the post-imperial age is not easy, even for a superpower.
Last month, Canadians elected an anti-Trump prime minister, Mark Carney, whose Liberal Party appeared destined to lose the election until Mr. Trump talked aggressively about Canada. Leaders of Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, have rejected the idea of U.S. control. Chinese officials are threatening to stop a Hong Kong company from selling its business running two ports in the Panama Canal to American investors.
'China will not give up its stakes in the Western Hemisphere so easily without a fight,' said Yun Sun, a China analyst at the Stimson Center in Washington.
Even so, Mr. Trump and his aides persist in trying to exert greater American influence from the Arctic Circle to South America's Patagonia region. When Mr. Carney told Mr. Trump this month in the Oval Office that Canada was 'not for sale,' Mr. Trump replied: 'Never say never.'
In March, Vice President JD Vance visited a U.S. military base in Greenland to reiterate Mr. Trump's desire to take the territory.
And it is no coincidence that Secretary of State Marco Rubio's two most substantial trips since taking office have been to Latin America and the Caribbean.
In El Salvador, Mr. Rubio negotiated with Nayib Bukele, the strongman leader, to have the nation imprison immigrants deported by the U.S. government, setting up what is effectively an American penal colony. Mr. Rubio also pressed Panama on its ports.
As a senator representing Florida, Mr. Rubio said at a hearing in July 2022 that focusing more closely on the Western Hemisphere was 'critical to our national security and our national economic interests.'
'Geography matters,' he said, because 'proximity matters.'
During that trip to the region, Mr. Rubio was asked by a reporter whether administration officials had discussed setting up spheres of influence, which would entail negotiating limits on each superpower's footprint, including in Asia.
Mr. Rubio, who has more conventional foreign policy views than Mr. Trump, asserted that the United States would maintain its military alliances in Asia. Those alliances allow it to base troops across the region.
'We don't talk about spheres of influence,' he said. 'The United States is an Indo-Pacific nation. We have relationships with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines. We're going to continue those relationships.'
Some analysts say Mr. Trump's approach to the war in Ukraine is consistent with the concept of spheres of influence. The United States is talking to another large power — Russia — about how to define the borders of a smaller country and is itself trying to control natural resources.
Mr. Trump has proposed terms of a settlement that would mostly benefit Russia, including U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and acknowledgment of Russian occupation of large swaths of eastern Ukraine. This week, Mr. Trump even seemed to back off his demand that Russia agree to an immediate cease-fire with Ukraine. Earlier, he got Ukraine to sign an agreement to give American companies access to the country's minerals.
Supporters of Mr. Trump's settlement proposal say it reflects the reality on the ground, as Ukraine struggles to oust the Russian occupiers.
But Mr. Trump's praise of Mr. Putin and of Russia, and his persistent skepticism of America's role in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has inflamed anxieties among European nations over a potentially waning U.S. presence in their geographic sphere.
The same is true of Taiwan and Asian security. Mr. Trump has voiced enough criticism of the island over the years, and showered enough accolades on Mr. Xi, China's leader, that Taiwanese and U.S. officials wonder whether he would waver on U.S. arms support for Taiwan, which is mandated by a congressional act.
Mr. Trump says he wants to reach a deal with China. Whether that would go beyond tariffs to address issues such as Taiwan and the U.S. military presence in Asia is an open question.
'Beijing would love to have a grand bargain with the U.S. on spheres of influence,' Ms. Sun said, and 'its first and foremost focus will be on Taiwan.'
Trump administration officials have not detailed how far the United States would go to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. At his confirmation hearing, Elbridge A. Colby, the under secretary of defense for policy, was asked by Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, why Mr. Colby's stance on defending Taiwan appeared to have 'softened' recently.
Mr. Colby said Taiwan was 'not an existential interest' for the United States, and affirmed a vague commitment to Asia: 'It's very important the core American interest is in denying China regional hegemony.'