Do the Timberwolves fear the Thunder? 3 keys to winning West Finals matchup

New York Times

20-05-2025

The Bounce Newsletter | This is The Athletic's daily NBA newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Bounce directly in your inbox.
On this date, 30 years ago, Mario Elie delivered the 'Kiss of Death' in Game 7 against the Suns. The Rockets broke a string of 20 straight home teams winning a Game 7. They also went on to win the NBA title as the lowest seed ever (No. 6) to win the title. Minnesota will now try to match that feat. The Timberwolves also have a foreign-born center. It's exactly the same thing.
All season long, we've seen the Thunder overwhelm their opponents. While they answered questions about their clutch-time prowess against Denver, they also reminded everybody that things can get out of hand in the blink of an eye. Two of their wins over the Nuggets were by a combined 75 points (!!!). You kind of forget that level of dominance when you think about a seven-game series that felt like it was balanced the whole time.
Advertisement
Now, they face the Timberwolves, who were here a year ago. This time, it wasn't a struggle to get through to the conference finals. They smacked the Lakers around in five games. Then, they weren't really challenged by a Warriors squad missing Steph Curry for all but 13 minutes. Minnesota is fresh, ready and trying to prove it has learned from last year's Western Conference finals, when the Mavericks were simply too much.
Have the Thunder learned enough from this experience to combine that with their regular-season dominance to move on to their first NBA Finals since 2012? Have the Wolves learned from last year's five-game loss to the Mavericks in order to leap into their first NBA Finals in franchise history? Let's preview the Western Conference finals!
Shooting Stars
The star power in this series resides in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards. We assume some time this week, the NBA might get around to announcing the MVP award. We double-assume that it will go to SGA. Edwards, while three years younger than his SGA, is trying to throw his name into the mix as a true contemporary. Over the last two seasons, SGA has put himself a cut above most of the league, but Edwards battling him toe-to-toe in this series – and even upsetting him by winning the series – would erase any doubt of them being on the same level. But it has to be proven.
SGA has been nothing short of spectacular in this postseason run, thus far. The 3-point shot hasn't been there (29.3 percent), but everything else has been top notch:
The flip side of that is Edwards' run through the playoffs. He injured his ankle when LeBron James rolled on it in the first round and tweaked it in the second round. But his postseason numbers have been close to brilliant, at 26.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 5.9 assists with 44.5/38.5/73.7 splits.
Against OKC this season, Edwards wasn't as efficient or productive, though. He averaged 22.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 6.0 assists in four matchups, but his 36.4/31.6/82.9 splits weren't up to his usual production. With that being said, the Wolves and Thunder went 2-2 against each other, and both stars had big moments.
Advertisement
The beauty of this matchup is both star guards do it all. They'll both spend time defending each other. They'll both spend time dissecting defenders assigned to them. And they'll both be expected to deliver an NBA Finals berth.
The turnover battle
The Wolves are going to have to watch the turnovers in this series, more so than they did against Golden State last round. Minnesota was sloppy with the ball in the regular season, ranking 20th in turnover rate. There was a slight uptick in turnovers in the postseason, but that must subside against the Thunder. The latter are the best in the league at forcing turnovers and taking care of the ball.
Minnesota will lose the turnover battle, but it can't get dominated in that category. In the Thunder's four-game sweep of the Grizzlies, they won the turnover battle. They won it by 46 in seven games against Denver. The Wolves turned the ball over 92 times in five games against the Warriors, after doing so 56 times against the Lakers in the same number of games. They have to eliminate the dumb mistakes.
Keeping up on the perimeter
The 3-point shot has completely left the Thunder during the playoff run so far. They're shooting 31.9 percent from deep in 11 games. SGA, Lu Dort and Jalen Williams are all under 30 percent in the postseason. That won't fly against Minnesota's defense.
Minnesota gave up the sixth-lowest 3-point percentage (35.3) this season. That went to 35.1 percent against the Lakers and then 34.4 percent against the Warriors (remember, there was pretty much no Curry). The Wolves are great at defending the perimeter, so the Thunder have to regain their outside shooting touch to put pressure on a really good defense.
Game 1 is tonight in OKC at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN (You can also watch on Fubo for free!).
We want to hear from you again! We have another poll for you, The Bouncers, to vote in to make your predictions for the Western Conference finals! We'll share your results for the Eastern Conference finals predictions below.
Did WWE script Knicks-Pacers East finals?
💪 Royal Rumble. Wrestling paved the way for this year's East finals matchup. Grab a chair and brass knuckles!
🔮 Who wins? We've got writers here at The Athletic predicting the conference finals. Who's picking Minnesota?
🏀 The bigger picture. Chris Finch knew the plan would work if they stuck to it. The Wolves made it back.
🏀 Time for change? Is Brad Stevens ready to talk about big changes to the Celtics? Not yet.
Advertisement
🧍 Standing tall. Under coach Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks are enjoying their deepest playoff run in a quarter century.
🎧 Tuning in. Today's 'NBA Daily' previews the keys to each conference finals series. Likewise for the 'No Dunks' crew!
The story of the greatest players in NBA history. In 100 riveting profiles, top basketball writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NBA in the process.
The story of the greatest players in NBA history.
East finals predictions are now in!
Yesterday, we asked you (yes, specifically you 🫵) to vote for and predict the outcome of the Eastern Conference finals and beyond. You did, so it's time to go over the results!
Who will win the East finals? In how many games?
Who will be the East finals MVP?
Then, we had other options to receive smaller portions of the vote. We also allowed write-in votes. Mitchell Robinson got one. Frank Ntilikina, a.k.a. Frankie Smokes, who plays in the Serbian League, received a vote. And, of course, one person wrote in Thanasis Antetokounmpo, as always. I will find you someday, whoever you are.
Will the winner of the East finals win the NBA Finals?
Who do I have advancing, you ask?
I guess if I'm asking everybody else to make predictions and we have a link to our writers making predictions, then I should put my own predictions on the line. I've thought a lot about where I think these two series will go, and what potential storylines might happen.
Also, check out the latest episode of The Bounce by clicking on my moving face!
Did you know this league has trade demands?
During the first couple of years of the Big 3, I was casually into it. You got a little bit of nostalgia with players out of the league still giving it a go. It was my only chance to still watch Ricky Davis – one of my all-time favorites – hoop. And I was in the building when Charles Oakley 'accidentally' hit Al Harrington in the teeth with the backfist.
Since then, the only time I really think about it is when Jeff Teague is discussing his experience on his podcast. I'm not trying to be dismissive about it. It still seems like a good, fun product, and people are enjoying it. It's successful. I just kind of check out of hoops during the summer to recharge my battery. Well, I saw a social media post today that definitely got me interested in it.
This was from Chris Haynes, reporting that Michael Beasley (yes, that Michael Beasley) is upset that the expansion Miami Big 3 team drafted Lance Stephenson (yes, that Lance Stephenson), and is contemplating requesting a trade.
This reads like 2012 basketball MadLibs. This led to one of my group chats having a lot of questions:
I'm curious if Beasley will try to get traded to the Houston Rig Hands or Boston Ball Hogs or LA Riot. Yes, those are all real team names.
I know it seems like I'm making fun of the Big 3, and I promise that's not the intention. I do actually want to get back into it this season. Teague's podcast has been a big part of that, and I love watching Beasley cook. That's especially so if we're about to get a big-time Beasley-Stephenson rivalry and drama either with them on the same or opposite team. Or is it just forced promotion for some one-on-one battle they're doing on the internet? (I'm not linking to it).
I just need to know when Ricky Davis is getting elected into the Big 3 Hall of Fame.