Oops, Scientists May Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline
The Paris Climate Accords in 2015 set an ambitious (and necessary) goal of keeping global temperatures at 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temps. But a study says we might've blown past that threshold several years ago.
Scientists at the University Western Australia Oceans Institute studied long-lived Caribbean sclerosponges and created an ocean temperature timeline dating back to the 1700s.
While the study claims that we surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2020, other scientists question if data from just one part of the world is enough to capture the immense thermal complexity of our oceans.
Whatever your stance is on climate change (it's real, let's move on), it's impossible to have missed the near-ubiquitous call to action to 'keep temperatures from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.' Over the past few years, the somewhat bureaucratic phrase has become a rallying cry for the climate conscious.
This ambitious target first surfaced following the Paris Climate Agreement, and describes a sort of climate threshold—if we pass a long-term average increase in temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius, and hold at those levels for several years, we're going to do some serious damage to ourselves and our environment.
Well, a paper from the University Western Australia Oceans Institute has some bad news: the world might've blown past that threshold four years ago. Published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the paper reaches this conclusion via an unlikely route—analyzing six sclerosponges, a kind of sea sponge that clings to underwater caves in the ocean. These sponges are commonly studied by climate scientists and are referred to as 'natural archives' because they grow so slowly. Like, a-fraction-of-a-millimeter-a-year slow. This essentially allows them to lock away climate data in their limestone skeletons, not entirely unlike tree rings or ice cores.
By analyzing strontium to calcium ratios in these sponges, the team could effectively calculate water temperatures dating back to 1700. The sponges watery home in the Caribbean is also a plus, as major ocean currents don't muck up or distort temperature readings. This data could be particularly useful,as direct human measurement of sea temperature only dates back to roughly 1850, when sailors dipped buckets into the ocean. That's why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses 1850 and 1900 as its preindustrial baseline, according to the website Grist.
'The big picture is that the global warming clock for emissions reductions to minimize the risk of dangerous climate change has been brought forward by at least a decade,' Malcolm McCulloch, lead author of the study, told the Associated Press. 'Basically, time's running out.'
The study concludes that the world started warming roughly 80 years before the IPCC's estimates, and that we already surpassed 1.7 degrees Celsius in 2020. That's a big 'woah, if true' moment, but some scientists are skeptical. One such scientist, speaking with LiveScience, said that ' it begs credulity to claim that the instrumental record is wrong based on paleosponges from one region of the world … It honestly doesn't make any sense to me.' Other experts expressed wanting to see more data before completely upending the IPCC's climate goalposts, which say the Earth is currently hovering at a long-term temperature change of around 1.2 degrees Celsius.
Unfortunately, even if the sponges are wrong, there's mounting evidence that we are in the process of crossing that 1.5 degree threshold as we speak. This January was the hottest on record, clocking in at 1.7 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures. According to New Scientist, that means we've been above 1.5 degrees of change for at least a year. That doesn't jump the long-term average over the 1.5-line, but it's certainly a sign we're getting close fast.
Regardless of the percentage, one thing is certain—climate change is an all-hands-on-deck crisis. In order to save the planet for future habitability, humans need to curtail emissions immediately—after all, the sea sponges are telling us so.
You Might Also Like
The Do's and Don'ts of Using Painter's Tape
The Best Portable BBQ Grills for Cooking Anywhere
Can a Smart Watch Prolong Your Life?
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
Scientists Reveal Exact Point When Aging Accelerates In The Body—and What You Can Do About It
"Hearst Magazines and Yahoo may earn commission or revenue on some items through these links." New research has pinpointed the exact age when cell aging accelerates. Many organs start to age faster around the time you're 50. There are a few things you can do to slow the process, according to doctors. For years, the generally accepted view of aging is that it's a process that happens gradually over time. But a study published in the journal Nature Aging last year suggested that aging happens in spurts instead of at a steady pace. Now, there's new research that supports the idea that aging isn't linear—and researchers have identified a new timeframe for when aging tends to accelerate. For the study, which was published in the journal Cell, researchers analyzed blood and tissue samples from 76 organ donors who were between the ages of 14 and 68 when they died of accidental traumatic brain injury. The tissue samples looked at these systems in the body: cardiovascular, digestive, immune, endocrine, respiratory, skin, and muscular. Meet the experts: Melissa Batchelor, PhD, director of the Center for Aging, Health and Humanities at the George Washington University School of Nursing; Bert Mandelbaum, MD, co-director of the Regenerative Orthobiologic Center at Cedars-Sinai Orthopaedics in Los Angeles; John Fudyma, MD, clinical associate professor of medicine and interim chief of the Division of General Internal Medicine in the Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences at the University at Buffalo The researchers created a catalogue of the proteins that were found in these systems, looking at how the levels of these proteins changed with the donors' age. (The proteins helped to fuel cell growth, and lower levels of the proteins suggest that cells weren't regenerating as well as they would when people were younger.) That data was stacked against a database of diseases and associated genes to determine that the expression of 48 proteins linked to various diseases—cardiovascular diseases, fatty liver disease, liver-related tumors, and more—increased with age. What did the study find? Based on the findings, the biggest changes happened between the ages of 45 and 55. During this time, many of the tissues showed major changes. The most drastic happened in the aorta (the main artery that carries blood away from your heart to the rest of your body), along with the pancreas and spleen. The researchers ultimately concluded that there is an 'aging inflection' around age 50, 'with blood vessels being a tissue that ages early and is markedly susceptible to aging.' What does this mean? The researchers didn't dive into why 50 was the sweet spot—they simply found that aging seems to accelerate in some organs and bodily systems around this time. 'We don't really understand if it's genetic, inflammatory…we don't know why this seems to happen around age 50,' says John Fudyma, MD, clinical associate professor of medicine and interim chief of the Division of General Internal Medicine in the Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences at the University at Buffalo. What the study does show is the key proteins that are needed for normal cellular function tend to decline around age 50, he says. Hormonal changes may play a role, says Melissa Batchelor, PhD, director of the Center for Aging, Health and Humanities at the George Washington University School of Nursing. 'By the time you're 50, you're starting to go through hormonal shifts,' she says. 'Your muscle mass declines, your metabolism declines—but all of that is part of the natural aging process.' The study was relatively small, and it didn't necessarily prove that everyone goes through these changes at the same time, points out Bert Mandelbaum, MD, co-director of the Regenerative Orthobiologic Center at Cedars-Sinai Orthopaedics in Los Angeles. He stresses that the aging process is highly individual. 'There are two really important things that people have to understand about aging,' he says. 'One is genomics—what are your genes?—and the other part is what you do to those genes.' While your genes lay out the foundation for how you will age, your lifestyle habits can influence these in a positive or negative way, Dr. Mandelbaum says. 'That's really the key thing,' he adds. Batchelor agrees. 'Everybody varies in how quickly they're going to see those changes,' she says. 'A lot depends on lifestyle. If you're a person who has not-so-great lifestyle habits, you will age faster than someone who has better habits.' So, tweaking your habits may go a long way in prolonging this inflection point. How to live a longer, healthier life Experts stress that your lifestyle choices are crucial for aging in a healthy way. 'Aging well isn't as much of a crapshoot as people think it is,' Batchelor says. 'It's really about having small, healthy habits that you build into your daily life.' Doctors suggest focusing on these moves for healthy aging: Get seven-plus hours of sleep. This recommended amount can help your best rest, supporting your overall health in the process, Batchelor says. Stay physically active. Doing what you can to be active throughout your day is crucial, Batchelor says. 'Sitting is the new smoking,' she says. 'Make sure you're not sitting too much.' Incorporate strength training into your exercise routine. 'This is really important as our hormones and muscle mass change,' Batchelor says. Follow a healthy diet. 'It goes back to the basics: Eat a healthy, well-balanced diet with minimally processed foods,' Dr. Fudyma says. Try to manage stress. This is easier said than done, but doing what you can to manage the stress in your life will help support your mental and physical health, Dr. Fudyma says. Ultimately, Dr. Mandelbaum stresses that 'you are what you eat, drink, think, and do.' But he also points out the importance of focusing on your overall health—not just zeroing in on one or two areas of it and slacking on the rest. 'You have to have this overall, comprehensive approach to health,' he says. 'Your body is responsive to the good or bad you give it.' While aging will continue to happen if you're lucky, Batchelor says it's important to do what you can to live a healthy lifestyle to support your longevity. 'Decline and decay is not an inevitable part of aging,' she says. You Might Also Like Jennifer Garner Swears By This Retinol Eye Cream These New Kicks Will Help You Smash Your Cross-Training Goals
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Yahoo
A 19-Year-Old Chemist Turned a Perfume Ingredient Into a Lifesaving Drug
"Hearst Magazines and Yahoo may earn commission or revenue on some items through these links." Here's what you'll learn when you read this story: 19-year-old Adam Kovalčík has created a stronger—and much cheaper—version of a powerful emerging medication known as galidesivir. Instead of starting out with the sugar, which is normally used in the production of this drug, he rebuilt the formula with a base molecule of corn alcohol. This change increases efficiency and cuts costs by reducing production steps and using inexpensive materials. We live in the aftermath of a global pandemic. Leftover COVID-19 trauma and world news updates reporting outbreaks of Zika or Ebola have made us apprehensive about viruses, and most of us have been vigilant about being vaccinated and re-vaccinated. But what about when preventative measures aren't enough? What happens if a virus invades us before we can get to a vaccine? Adam Kovalčík is only 19, but the high school senior at Gymnázium Nové Zámky in Slovakia he has created something beyond what anyone would expect of someone his age. He has managed to turn an alcohol derived from corncobs and husks into galidesivir, an antiviral drug that targets RNA viruses like Zika and Ebola. Generating the drug this way, in his words, 'could potentially save tens of thousands of lives.' Kovalčík recently won the $100,000 Genrge D. Yancopoulos Innovator Award at the 2025 Regeneration International Science and Engineering Fair (ISEF). Galidesivir is the human-synthesized version of adenosine, which itself is a nucleoside—the components of nuclei acids. Among other biochemical functions, they are involved in storing and transferring genetic information. Adenosine is also an inhibitor of the enzyme RNA polymerase, which interferes with the function of certain enzymes in RNA viruses. The adenosine produced by our our bodies can inhibit RNA viruses (which clone their genomes in order to keep producing infinite copies of themselves), but it usually needs a boost when faced with potentially fatal pathogens like Ebola and Zika. This is where galidesivir comes in. Though not yet approved by the FDA, in vitro and animal tests have shown that galidesivir increases survival rates and has few side effects, which is why it is also being considered for treating COVID-19. It binds to the molecules that viruses use to clone themselves, making that function no longer accessible to the virus. The problem with galidesivir is that it costs $75 per gram (0.035 ounce) to produce, making the cost of a future prescription almost unfathomable, especially considering the state of healthcare. Kovalčík's process could bring that cost down to $12.50 per gram. Why is galidesivir so expensive? There is an extra step in the production of the most powerful form of this drug that ultimately affects the cost. When drugs are being developed, unwanted materials—such as variants of that drug—often end up in the first batch. These variants, or stereoisomers, have the same molecular formula as the finished drug, but their atoms form molecules in different arrangements. Kovalčík wanted to synthesize cis-OH galidesivir because it is 20 times stronger than its stereoisomer trans-OH galidesivir, so the trans version needs to be separated out to isolate the cis version. Separation involves extras steps that take extra time and cost more. Kovalčík used his experience working on perfumes in a chemistry lab to figure out how to synthesize galidesivir in a different way. He needed a starter molecule—typically, sugar is used for galidesivir, but sugar would just repeat the existing process, which was not efficient enough. Perfume taught Kovalčík that some scent compounds used furfural alcohol (corn alcohol) as a starter molecule, so he rebuilt the drug using it as the replacement starter molecule and was able to reduce the production steps from 15 to 10. Using corn alcohol also lowered the cost. This production method is not restricted to galidevisir—it could create other antivirals. Kovalčík used computer models to design new molecules that were supposed to operate in the same way as galidesivir, and one molecule he came up with (ADK-98) had the potential to be even more effective. The furfural alcohol distilled from corn would be the base for these future drugs. Kovalčík plans to continue refining his research and development process for this and other potential antivirals in collaboration with the Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava. And to think, this all started with a realization that came from molecules in perfume. Think about that with your next spritz of Dior Homme or Chanel No. 5. You Might Also Like The Do's and Don'ts of Using Painter's Tape The Best Portable BBQ Grills for Cooking Anywhere Can a Smart Watch Prolong Your Life? Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Yahoo
Scientists Are Building a Nuclear Device That Could Unveil an Invisible Universe
"Hearst Magazines and Yahoo may earn commission or revenue on some items through these links." Here's what you'll learn when you read this story: Scientists are close to creating a nuclear clock—an ultra-accurate clock that uses a low-energy transition in the nucleus of a thorium-229 atom to keep time. Electrical interference makes atomic clocks unsuited for dark matter detection, but nuclear clocks don't have that problem, and could provide a resolution some 100,000 times better than what we currently have. There's no guarantee that using a nuclear clock will finally find the theoretical perturbations caused by dark matter, but it will help scientists explore a new atomic realm as a part of that never-ending search. Once considered an unusable byproduct of the U.S. nuclear program, thorium-229—an isotope of the silvery-white metal, thorium—could become central to humanity's search for dark matter. Up to this point, scientists have devised massive detectors, surveyed gravitational effects, and studied cosmic radiation in the hopes that it might point to evidence of this elusive substance. Now, researchers are considering whether a nuclear clock powered by the low-energy transitions of a thorium-229 nucleus may work as a new method in the particle hunt. In a new study published in the journal Physical Review X, scientists from Germany, Israel, and Spain explored ways that the unique properties of a nuclear clock could detect the influence of dark matter. Today's most accurate clocks (atomic clocks) rely on the oscillations of electrons between two quantum states to keep time. While highly precise, these clocks are susceptible to electrical interference. Proposed nuclear clocks, which use the nuclei of an atom, are far less impacted by these disturbances. The resonance frequency—the steady swing of nuclei between 'ground' and 'high-energy' states—is typically pretty high, requiring strong radiation to excite the nucleus and produce the 'tick-tock' of a nuclear clock. Thorium-229, however, is special because its resonance frequency is low enough to be excited by modern laser technology, theoretically making a nuclear clock possible. 'When it comes to dark matter a thorium-229-based nuclear clock would be the ultimate detector,' Gilad Perez, a co-author of the study from the Weizmann Institute of Science, said in a press statement. 'Right now, electrical interference limits our ability to use atomic clocks in the search […]. We estimate [nuclear clocks] will enable us to detect forces 10 trillion times weaker than gravity, providing a resolution 100,000 times better than what we currently have in our search for dark matter.' In the past year, labs around the world have made major breakthroughs in developing a thorium-229 nuclear clock, which culminated in a paper published in September of 2024 in the journal Nature. That paper reported an observation of a thorium-229 transition that was millions of times more accurate than previous attempts. 'In a universe made up only of visible matter, the physical conditions and the absorption spectrum of any material would remain constant,' Perez said in a press statement. 'But because dark matter surrounds us, its wave-like nature can subtly change the mass of atomic nuclei and cause temporary shifts in their absorption spectrum […]. We still need even greater precision to develop a nuclear clock, but we've already identified an opportunity to study dark matter.' There's no guarantee that nuclear clocks will end our hunt for dark matter, but they do represent a new atomic frontier that has yet to be explored as part of that endless search. Not so bad for an isotope once considered a mere 'byproduct.' You Might Also Like The Do's and Don'ts of Using Painter's Tape The Best Portable BBQ Grills for Cooking Anywhere Can a Smart Watch Prolong Your Life? Solve the daily Crossword
