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RNZ News
6 hours ago
- RNZ News
Devastating cyclones to get 20-35 percent wetter with fossil fuel emissions
Debris and damage at Redclyffe bridge in Taradale, Napier after Cyclone Gabrielle. Photo: Givealittle / Waiohiki Marae Devastating cyclones like the one that sank the Wahine could get 20-35 percent wetter with fossil fuel emissions, unless countries pick up their climate efforts, a study has found. The most devastating cyclones to hit New Zealand - like Gabrielle, Bola and Giselle, which sank the Wahine in 1968 - have been ex-tropical cyclones. Now new, more precise climate modelling shows they could dump 35 percent more rain by the end of the century. Even if governments lowered emissions enough to keep global temperatures to 2C hotter than the late 1990s and early 2000s, extreme rainfall from tropical and ex-tropical cyclones could rise by up to 20 percent, the peer-reviewed study out of New Zealand found. The world is currently on track to get hotter than that, and only one country - the United Kingdom - has set a target for 2035 consistent with keeping heating to 1.5C, according to charity Climate Action Tracker . "The most relevant take home for New Zealand is that the amount of extreme rainfall coming out of these storms will increase in the future and this increase will be dependent on future temperature increases," said climate scientist Peter Gibson, who led the study with colleagues from Earth Sciences NZ (formerly NIWA) and the University of Waikato. "Under a high emissions scenario we could see as much as 30-35 percent increases ... whereas if we follow more of a moderate emissions pathway the warming would be more like 2°C by the end of the century and that would limit the increase to about 20 percent." He said even that would be significant. "Especially when you're talking about the really devastating events like Gabrielle, Bola and Giselle, these storms can often produce 400mm of rainfall in some places, so 20-30 percent really has strong implications on the ground," Gibson said. The researchers used new, more precise climate modelling which NIWA generated for New Zealand last year. They simulated how extreme cyclones would change in the South Pacific (including New Zealand) under low, medium and high emissions futures. Those levels of greenhouse gases translated to heating of around 1C, 2C and 3C respectively, compared with a baseline of 1995-2014 temperatures. Gibson said they also looked at whether other changes to weather patterns - such as increased high pressure systems or changing winds - might act as a shield and deflect some ex-tropical cyclones from reaching New Zealand. "Unfortunately we don't find strong evidence of that occurring over New Zealand in our simulations." The study confirmed earlier projections by the world's peak climate science body, the IPCC, and others. Earlier modelling has found little evidence that ex-tropical cyclones would become more frequent, but found each storm would bring more intense rain. Gibson said previous findings were based on much lower-resolution models. "This is particularly important for tropical cyclones, because if you think about the eye of a tropical cyclone, these are tens of kilometres across and the resolution of global climate models is roughly 100km. Global climate models really struggle capture tropical cycles," he said. "In our high-resolution models which we using here, we have a much better representation of the physics." The study was funded by the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment through the Building for Climate Change programme and Strategic Science Investment Fund. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
RNZ News
15 hours ago
- RNZ News
Navy enlisted in Zealandia lake survey effort
The survey is like mowing a lawn, traversing back and forth mapping the lakebed below. Photo: Kate Green / RNZ The Navy has descended on a Wellington eco-sanctuary - but it's not to prevent an invasion, pests or otherwise. Rather it is conducting a survey of the Zealandia lake, good practice for the crew and useful information for the sanctuary. Zealandia chief financial officer John Diggins watched on while the Navy crew set up their black, inflatable Zodiac with surveying equipment on Wednesday morning. "It's really exciting," he said. "It actually shows us how the lake sits underneath, you can see the old creak that runs through, the original creak from before the dam was actually built, and just shows us any submerged logs. "There's also potentially a little goldmine down there, a little goldmine shaft that they saw on the last survey." The Navy crew sets up their surveying equipment aboard the Zodiac on Wednesday morning. Photo: Kate Green / RNZ That survey was done in 2018, and since then, technology had advanced and would hopefully give them a better look. The results would make it safer to navigate Zealandia's electric boat, Ara Kawau, around the man-made lake, Diggins said. "It's a really cool trip, and it's just really good to know if there are submerged logs that are hazards for the boat so we can just stay away from them." The Navy crew would be on deck for the next couple of days, and Diggins hoped they might get time to map the Upper Dam as well, which had never been surveyed before. Chief petty officer Julie O'Hara of HMNZS Matataua and the Navy's search, survey and recovery team. Photo: Kate Green / RNZ Chief Petty Officer Julie O'Hara of HMNZS Matataua and the Navy's search, survey and recovery team explained the portable multi-beam surveying system could see down to depths of 300 metres - but she was not expecting anything deeper than 15 metres. Three crew members set out across the lake in the Zodiac just after 10am. The boat would traverse back and forth across the lake, mapping the floor below. "It's kind of like mowing the lawns," O'Hara explained. The end product would come in the form of a map, with different colours representing different depths, which Zealandia could use to steer clear of shallows and obstacles - and it could be ready as soon as Friday. Zealandia's chief financial officer John Diggins watches on, as the Navy crew sets up the boat for the lake survey. Photo: Kate Green / RNZ As well as being useful for Zealandia, O'Hara said it was good training. "We had a bit of an operational pause at the start of the year from the Manawanui sinking [in October 2024], so we came together as a trade and looked at how we can improve." "A lot of training, getting back into it, and then doing this training exercise here to really consolidate it." Zealandia's electric boat, Ara Kawau. Photo: Kate Green / RNZ The team carried out a huge variety of work - uncovering landmines, recovering vehicles, searching for missing people and surveying sea floors. "We never know where we're going to deploy in the world, and what's asked of us, so by doing different lakes it really gives us the training that we need to move from normally working salt water, to working in fresh water." Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
RNZ News
18 hours ago
- RNZ News
Navy conducting survey of Zealandia lake
environment 22 minutes ago The Navy has descended on a Wellington eco-sanctuary, but it's not to prevent an invasion, pests or otherwise. Instead, they are conducting a survey of the Zealandia lake, which is good practice for their crew and useful information for the sanctuary. Kate Green reports.
