Odds on Mike: Bulls to win a close one at Loftus, Leinster to beat Glasgow in URC semi-finals
With the home side likely to get front-foot ball, the Bulls backs should do the rest on the scoreboard. But I'm not predicting a high-scoring affair. The Sharks have a knack for pulling expansive teams down into the trenches for an arm wrestle.
The challenge for the Sharks became a whole lot tougher when they lost their all-Springbok second row of Eben Etzebeth and Jason Jenkins to injury. Etzebeth is the best lock in the world and Jenkins has been playing the quality of rugby that earned him Springbok colours. The Sharks' pack was always going to be under pressure from their in-form Bulls counterpart and with a makeshift second row, it is going to be a big ask for the visitors to gain parity up front.
Betting angle
The bookies have the Bulls as strong favourites. To back them simply as winners will mean that for every R100 you put down, you will get R28 back at Hollywoodbets. And if you fancy the Sharks to pull off an upset, R100 will get you a R280 reward. The wise bet is to back the Bulls, but rather on the handicap than just on the scoreboard. I like the minus-7.5 handicap, which means the Bulls must win by at least 7.5 points for the bet to pay out. In this case, R100 will win you R90 plus your stake back.
Alternatively, you can take the Sharks on the plus handicap. I think a tasty option is the plus-11.5 handicap. This means the Sharks won't lose by more than 11.5 points. I think this will happen. Finals are close-scoring affairs. R100 will win you R50.
Leinster v Glasgow in Dublin, 3.45pm
Much has been said about Leinster being chokers and an aging team because of their recent history of losing big games. I'm not so sure this Leinster team is over the hill just yet, and the recent losses will have rid them of the complacency which I think has been their problem. A correctly-focused, hungry Leinster team should win at a packed Aviva Stadium.
That said, the Warriors shocked Pretoria last year when they beat the Bulls in the URC final. They are a champion team and well-coached by South African Franco Smith. They were exceptional in their quarter-final demolition of the Stormers in the quarter-finals.
Betting angle
Glasgow are massive underdogs and R100 on them to win will net you R580. The same amount on Leinster will win you a paltry R12. So that is not worth it. I reckon the home team will win, but by how much? The handicap is the way to go in this game and a good option is the minus 13.5 handicap. For that to pay out, Leinster need to win by more than 13.5. That is basically two converted tries. R100 will reward you with an R85 profit.
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