Rolling out the women's quota
In September 2023, Parliament passed the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam, the law that mandates setting aside one-third or 33% of the total seats in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies for women. The law also states that the reservation for women in the legislature can be rolled out only after the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies, which, in turn, can be done only after the census is completed. The government recently announced that the census, due in 2021, will now be completed by March 1, 2027. So, women's quota in the House can be rolled out only after the census and delimitation exercises are completed. Against this backdrop, the plan to hold the 2029 general election with the women's quota in place may seem a tall order, but is possible.
There are two challenges the political executive and administration will face. First, the census. Experience suggests that it may take nearly two years for the administration to process the enumeration data. This time caste will be added as an enumeration category, a first since 1931. However, digital technology is expected to help enumerators complete the process in less than a year. This should leave a sufficient window for the political executive to surmount the second hurdle, which is the delimitation exercise. The lack of a political consensus on delimitation of the Lok Sabha constituencies makes it a potentially contentious exercise: States including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, and Punjab have formed a Joint Action Committee on Fair Delimitation, which convened in Chennai in March, and demanded that a freeze on the number of parliamentary constituencies, based on the 1971 Census, be extended for another 25 years. However, the Centre has assured the restive States that their concerns will be addressed and that their current tally of seats will be protected.
The challenge before the Union government is how to firewall the delimitation exercise from the contingencies of electoral politics. This will surely test its persuasive powers and tactical acumen. What could aid its push to roll out the women's quota is the broad consensus in favour of political reservation for women: Women outvoted men (65.8% was the turnout for women as compared to 65.6% for men) in the 2024 general election, and it's natural that this enthusiasm is translated into political representation in Parliament.
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