Weekend NHL rankings: No, your predictions are wrong

New York Times

10-02-2025

Well, well, well, what do we have here?
We asked. You voted. The results are in.
Fan picks for Stanley Cup winner, awards and more
On @TheAthleticNHL ⤵️https://t.co/kCqdjI93FW
— Jesse Granger (@JesseGranger_) February 8, 2025
GO DEEPER
NHL fan predictions: Your picks for Stanley Cup winner, awards and more
Yes, it's yet another batch of predictions. But this time it's not me or the other writers making the picks, it's you. Yes, you, personally, because I'm going to assume you took part in The Athletic's recent survey. More than 2,500 readers did. Including you.
And that means this week, I get to tell you why your predictions are bad.
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Oh, how the turns have tabled. Give me a second while I get into full 'comment section' mode. (Hits self in the head with a brick several times.) Heh, heh … clicks. OK, let's do this.
1. You don't believe in the Capitals — This was surprising, because it's been explained to me that anyone who watched the games would know this Washington season is for real. I haven't had them in my one-spot all season, despite them starting to pull away at the top of the standings. But I've had them as high as No. 2, and they've been somewhere in the top five for 10 straight weeks. Meanwhile, you all had them as just your seventh-most mentioned Cup pick. Any thoughts on that you'd like to share, Caps fans?
2. You're wrong on the Hart Trophy — You think it's going to be Leon Draisaitl in a narrow win over Nathan MacKinnon, and both of those picks are reasonable. But only 14.2 percent of you have the right answer: This is the year the Hart goes back to the goalies, with Connor Hellebuyck uniting the 'this isn't just supposed to be an offense award' voting block while Draisaitl, MacKinnon and Connor McDavid split the forward vote.
3. You're super wrong on the Calder — Lane Hutson is the best player ever and the 79.4 percent of you who don't think he's the best rookie in the world have never watched a single hockey game in your miserable lives! Am I doing this right, Habs fans? Too calm and reasonable? I thought so, I'll try to get a little more amped up for next time.
4. You're probably wrong on last place — The Sharks have opened up a reasonably significant lead on the Hawks in the battle for dead last, but 53.7 percent of you still think Chicago is going to take the top lottery odds. I thought so, too, up until a few weeks ago, but the Sharks are not only worse right now, they're probably in better position to subtract at the deadline. Also, that people were picking teams like the Sabres, Ducks and (especially) Rangers suggests that some of you don't know how standings work.
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5. You're still somehow sleeping on the Panthers — I get that picking the defending champs feels boring, especially when that same team also went to the Final the year before. Voter fatigue is real. But still … only 2.7 percent of you have the Panthers as your Cup pick? That's less than what you'd expect if we just distributed the votes randomly among all 32 teams. All this for a team in a very winnable Atlantic, whose only competition for top spot in the division is an inconsistent Leafs team, and whose main competition in the conference finals would either be that Capitals team you don't believe in, or a Hurricanes team you mostly do believe in but that hasn't really clicked since the Mikko Rantanen deal.
Sometimes, the boring pick is the right one, and while the Panthers have been in and out of my top five all year long, you'd better believe I wouldn't have them lumped into 'other.'
On to this week's rankings, which are better than yours, you imbecile.
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
The trade board has been updated, and … honestly, maybe don't bother taking deadline day off this year.
5. Florida Panthers (34-20-3, +23 true goals differential*) — Hey, after that rant up above, I've got to put my money where my mouth is. But five wins in six to regain top spot in the Atlantic helps make my case.
4. Dallas Stars (35-18-2, +42) — Funniest non-celebration of the week honors go to Jamie Benn, who apparently didn't feel like putting an eight-spot on the lowly Sharks was even worth acknowledging.
Jamie Benn joins the Stars scoring party! 🥳 pic.twitter.com/amvjTpBCpg
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) February 9, 2025
3. Washington Capitals (36-11-8, +59) — The Caps' shootout loss to Utah was a reminder of how weird it is that Alex Ovechkin, the greatest goal scorer in the history of the sport, often doesn't get chosen to take part in the goal-scoring contest. I mean, we get it — he's never been a breakaway guy, and it's hard to set up the top-of-the-circle one-timer in a shootout — but try explaining that to a non-fan.
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2. Edmonton Oilers (34-17-4, +31) — Prediction contest update: The dreaded all-or-nothing bonus question could be a bloodbath, with Draisaitl sitting as the only player in the league comfortably on pace for 50 goals. About 64 percent of you chose to roll the dice on that question ('Name one and only one player who will finish this season with at least 50 goals, but who is not Auston Matthews') and less than 20 percent of those took Draisaitl.
1. Winnipeg Jets (39-14-3, +68) — Yep, I'm on board. Count me in with the other rankings, who also picked this weekend to move the Jets into top spot. They head into the break having won eight straight, including wins over the Avalanche, Hurricanes and Capitals. And they come off the break with a stretch of seven games in which Ottawa is the only playoff team they'll face. The race for top spot in the West might be over by March.
In other Jets news, Mark Scheifele is reportedly next up if Sidney Crosby can't go for Team Canada, although that decision might not come down until right at tonight's final roster deadline.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Detroit Red Wings — OK, now that they've finally lost a game, let's regroup and see where this team is really at.
Saturday's loss to the Lightning snapped a seven-game win streak and left the Wings with a mark of 15-5-1 under Todd McLellan. That's still an excellent record, obviously, and it's been enough to get them into the last wild-card spot. It's been an impressive climb — when the win streak started on Jan. 23, they were 14th in the conference, five points out of a playoff spot. When McLellan took over, they were 15th, and eight points back. To cover all that ground and pass all those teams in just six weeks is an impressive feat.
But it still leaves them in a precarious spot, setting up a second half in which every point will be crucial. And for our purposes, it makes them a tough team to evaluate. The pessimist's view is they're a mediocre team that got hot for just long enough to barely climb into a wild-card spot. Every team has a win streak at some point, and while those wins count as much as any other, regression arrives eventually. When it does, these Wings will revert back to being what they've been for a few years now — a wild-card bubble team that ends up falling short.
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The optimist's case is McLellan, and the fact his arrival coincides with the best six weeks this team has played in years, isn't some random quirk. This is his team now, and he's unlocked something here. Derek Lalonde had sucked the life out of this group, and McLellan brought it back. Maybe they won't play at a 120-point pace for the rest of the year, but we shouldn't worry about anything that happened in the pre-McLellan era. And if you buy that, the Wings are going to roll to a playoff spot.
Of course, you could also be boring and say the truth is somewhere in the middle. That might be good enough for Wings fans, who haven't seen a playoff game since 2016 and might figure an underdog run as a wild card would be good enough for this season especially given how it started. But at least they can spend the break hoping for something more, as unlikely as it seems.
The five teams headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for a top pick that could be James Hagens, Matthew Schaefer or someone else.
The 4 Nations Face-Off is here, meaning the NHL is on break until Feb. 22. We have a ton of insightful preview content coming over the next few days. We also had this post, in which we made a bunch of trades for an event that has no trades, which was maybe not as insightful but you should definitely still read it.
5. Montreal Canadiens (25-26-5, -31) — Well, it was fun while it lasted.
4. Philadelphia Flyers (24-26-7, -30) — It's possible I'm just slipping them in here because nobody in Philadelphia is thinking about hockey this morning. But while they're here: Am I reading too much into it, or is it a little weird to have traded two guys away who then immediately start talking about how they feel respected?
3. Nashville Predators (19-28-7, -36) — Saturday's matchup featured the Predators on a six-game losing streak and the Sabres having won four straight, so it goes without saying Nashville won. They gave Juuse Saros the night off, which was probably a good move given how much action he might be seeing over the next week with that mess of a Team Finland blue line.
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2. Chicago Blackhawks (17-31-7, -41) — We've apparently made a collective decision that February will be international pick-on-Connor Bedard month. Is that fair? Not necessarily, and Scott went back and broke down Bedard's recent shifts to see which criticisms have been valid and which may have been misdirected.
1. San Jose Sharks (15-35-7, -64) — Saturday's blowout loss to the Stars was the last chance to see them on home ice for a full month. After 4 Nations ends, the Sharks head out on a seven-game road trip and don't get back for a game until March 8.
Not ranked: Buffalo Sabres — No Sabres in the bottom five this week, for the first time since mid-December, thanks to those four straight wins heading into the weekend. That stretch hasn't pushed them back into the playoff hunt, mind you; it would probably have needed to hit double digits to even come close to that.
So today, I just want to ask Sabres fans one question: Was that win streak a good thing?
Yes or no. And this isn't meant to be rhetorical, I'm really not sure. Do you want to see this team win right now?
I can see both sides. On one hand, you root for a team because you want to see them win. And even if that's more of a long view, you have to start somewhere. The journey of a thousand miles begins with four consecutive steps, that sort of thing. If there's any hope of the Sabres winning anything with this core, they have to start showing us some proof of concept at some point. If it's happening right now, that's good news.
Unless it isn't, because come on, we all know this story. A broken team drops out of the running, then heats up against backup goalies and opponents who are looking past them, winning just enough games to accomplish two things: tanking their lottery odds and convincing their front office to take the path of least resistance and stay the course.
The Buffalo Sabres as soon as they're 47 points out of the playoffs race pic.twitter.com/bNW5GH6QKD
— sba (@essbeeay) February 2, 2025
I'm torn. So Sabres fans, nice and simple: Is this streak a good thing or a bad thing? Let me know in the comments. I'm genuinely curious how this is playing out in the fan base.
(Photo of Panthers fans: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)