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New York Times
04-06-2025
- Entertainment
- New York Times
Stanley Cup Final predictions, NHL playoff format, officiating, 2026 Olympics and more
By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, James Mirtle, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff No, it's not 2024. It might feel that way, however, as the Florida Panthers continue their quest to win a second straight championship on Wednesday night when they open a rematch of the Stanley Cup Final against the Edmonton Oilers. Advertisement A familiar matchup calls for something different, which is why we knew we had to go deeper, make this more interesting, more fun than just picking the winner and who will get the Conn Smythe Trophy — don't worry, we do that, too. Beyond that, we had The Athletic's NHL staff give their opinions on playoff officiating, the idea of changing the postseason format, the 2026 Milano Cortina Olympics and next year's Stanley Cup champion. Here are the results of the survey, with analysis and critique from senior writers Sean Gentille, James Mirtle and Mark Lazerus, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger. Let's get into it. Figures are rounded and some staff comments have been edited for length and clarity. Lazerus: A coin flip sounds just about right, though I still lean Florida based on the Sergei Bobrovsky vs. Stuart 'Box of Chocolates' Skinner. Also, if Darnell Nurse or Evan Bouchard try to break anyone's foot in the final, something tells me Florida will actually respond. This will be a very different series for Edmonton than the Western Conference final. Florida is mean, nasty, physical, tested and remarkably rested for a team entering its third straight Stanley Cup Final — everything Dallas wasn't. Gentille: I told myself at the start of all this that whichever team won the first-round matchup between Florida and Tampa Bay would make the final, and that I couldn't trust Skinner to hold up over the course of a full postseason. That all still checks out — but most of all, I'm done picking against the Panthers until they lose another series. They have to show that they can't do it. Granger: Tampa Bay looked like perhaps the most complete team in the league entering the playoffs, and the Panthers steamrolled them. Carolina was playing so well, I believed in the Hurricanes more than ever before heading into the Eastern Conference final, and Florida demolished them. Edmonton is a great team, but this Florida squad has made a habit of making great teams look bad. Advertisement Mirtle: All right, I'll admit it, I'm going Oilers in seven. Something about the way Edmonton has decimated three good teams in a row just says team of destiny to me this year. Or more like a player of destiny, given how focused and determined Connor McDavid looks. Goldman: I have picked against the Oilers every round and have been wrong, but … I still am picking against them here. I think the series goes seven again, and maybe in less dramatic fashion than last year. The Zach Hyman injury is what holds me back, despite McDavid hitting that next level in Round 3 that I think we were all waiting to see. Lazerus: Sam Bennett leads the postseason with 10 goals and influences the game as much as any player on the Panthers. Perhaps no individual player is a better fit for his team than Bennett and the Panthers. If he pops a game-winning goal or two in this series, we're all going to look pretty silly when he wins the Conn Smythe. (And some GM is going to look even sillier when he gives him a seven-year, $77 million contract.) Gentille: I went with Aleksander Barkov. That took some degree of projection, but he's the leading scorer on the team I think is going to win the series, and he's a name-brand guy who's already had a couple of major moments in the playoffs thus far, most recently in the third period of Florida's clincher against the Hurricanes. Granger: Bobrovsky leads all goalies with 40 playoff wins over the last three seasons. The next-closest is Jake Oettinger with 29. He also leads all goalies with 36.71 goals saved above expected over that span, more than 10 clear of the next goalie. If Florida wins, he should get his Conn Smythe to sit next to his two Vezina trophies. Mirtle: Leon Draisaitl feels low to me, given how close he's been to McDavid for a lot of this run. And McDavid won last year, so maybe that sways a few voters to change it up a little if they're close. Goldman: Echoing Sean on this one with Barkov, but for a slightly different reason: if Florida wins again, it's likely because Barkov's line has slowed down McDavid or Draisaitl. That's what could separate him from someone like Bennett in voting. A bad call in the playoffs always gets big attention, and this year, the hockey world is buzzing every time the rule book seems to be ignored in a game. Our panel did not go easy on their grading. 'As bad as usual. Inconsistent rule book with the added bonus of prison rules in high-leverage games. By 'letting them play,' the officials create an advantage to the team that breaks the most rules when the games matter most. No other sport treats the rule book as optional.' 'They're officiating the score and situation, not the rules. A penalty is a penalty; it doesn't matter when it happened in a game or if a team is ahead or behind. This isn't new. It's always this way. And it's no secret the whistles will be in Saskatchewan and Cuba instead of Edmonton and Sunrise for the Cup Final. The 'let them play' motto is nonsense. Let them play under the rules.' 'The lack of consistency from game to game and series to series makes it very difficult for players to understand where the line is.' 'I don't know if following the rule book to the letter would actually create a game most people want to watch. Players do take advantage of that wiggle room in the playoffs, and when 'letting them play' goes against a team you're invested in, there are understandably intense emotions and reactions in such high-stakes games. But I think consistency is more the key measure to grading officials, and I haven't had major issues with the refs in these playoffs by that standard. It has been interesting to see some embellishment calls — that was not something I would have anticipated, and it feels like a particularly difficult call to be consistent on. The officials will never be perfect, of course, and there is usually a call or two in each game worthy of scrutiny. But that's part of the game and the fine margins of playoff hockey.' 'Don't we complain about officiating every year? And it's still bad? At this point, apathy has long set in over officiating.' 'It's far from perfect, but the officials have also become the whipping boys for every fan base that's sour about how the postseason went. 'We want consistency!' No, you want the calls to go your way, just like everyone else. At least own it.' Advertisement Lazerus: Hey! I wrote about this! Gentille: It's been worse. Also, after decades as a fan and then someone who covers the league, I've lost the capacity to get all that mad over officiating, barring something egregiously awful at a terrible time. Which means we're about to get something egregiously awful at a terrible time. Goldman: The problem is that the bar is so low with NHL officiating — we all expect a lot of mistakes, and this year is no different. There's been controversy in pretty much every series Florida has been a part of because of how they walk the line, and that conversation is bound to continue in the final. I think the big difference from years past is that there haven't been as many controversies surrounding things such as goalie interference because most of the challenges have been questionable in the first place. A first-round matchup of two heavyweights in this year's playoffs, the Avalanche and Stars, reignited the debate on whether the NHL should change its playoff format. So we polled our writers. Eight staff members simply wrote '1 vs. 8.' 'Bring back the 1 vs. 8 format. Never found an issue with it when it was changed to division-based to supposedly inject existing rivalries with rocket fuel. I like the occasional variance that playoff matchups brought with 1 vs. 8.' 'They should seed each side 1-8, and they never should have stopped doing that.' 'Everyone in the league and 95 percent of fans — I know this because I asked on social media — want the 1 vs. 8 format. It shouldn't be this hard.' 'I've been in favor of the divisional rivalries. But this format has led to too much repetition among conference finalists. NHL should adopt the NBA format, including the play-in for seeds 7-10. There's nothing wrong with stealing a good idea. It won't dilute the playoffs. And it rewards the top six teams with time off at the start of the playoffs.' 'I don't need a play-in or anything like that — there aren't enough good teams to justify that — but it should be seeded 1-8.' 'I never minded 1 vs. 8 when that was the format and don't have a huge opposition to it, but I think there's a little too much blame being placed on the format/seeding for certain teams' outcomes. Sure, Tampa and Toronto would have been better off not drawing the Panthers in the first or second round, but they were going to have to play them eventually to make a serious run. Going 1 vs. 8 in the West would have kept us from matching up two favorites in Dallas and Colorado in Round 1, but two of the Western Conference series would have remained the same, and a 1 vs. 8 format would have still pitted the Stars against the Oilers (the eventual conference final) in that first round as a 3 vs. 6 matchup. The eventual East final (Carolina vs. Florida) would have also been a first-round 4 vs. 5 matchup. In hindsight, the short series would indicate maybe that would have been better in this case. But with enough good teams, someone is always in what feels like 'too hard' of a first-round draw. Getting tough, dramatic series in the first round is a good thing, not something to be wished away, even though the short conference finals were disappointing. And while certain teams surely can get tougher early matchups than seems 'fair' based on the regular-season standings, the bottom line is if you can't win that matchup, you can't win the Stanley Cup.' 'The 82-game regular season should matter and the fans want a return to 1 vs. 8. The current playoff format has not worked. It's time to reward the work that players put into the regular season and to respond to the fans for a change.' 'The divisional alignment is pitched as rivalry-forming, but I don't think NHL players need an extra pretense to compete with each other over the course of a seven-game playoff series. In practice, it creates high-quality matchups earlier in the playoffs instead of saving them for the conference finals. Is this better for TV revenue? Is this better for selling outsiders on the wonder of playoff hockey? Or just a meaningless way of devaluing regular season performance in the name of a divisional rival storyline that few people seem to care about?' Advertisement Lazerus: Conferences mean so little these days. Let's just go 1-16 already. Gentille: I also want to see a test drive of a seeds 7-10, NBA-style play-in tournament. It rewards better teams, creates stakes down the stretch, adds revenue and works well as a TV event. Granger: I disagree with you both and want my old 1 vs. 8 back in both conferences. And while we're at it, move Detroit back to the West. Mirtle: Add the play-in, go 1 vs. 8, and suddenly there's a nice advantage to having a good regular season again. Goldman: Mostly on the same page as Mirtle; 1-8 is absolutely the way to go, but the play-in, I think, needs to be very limited: seeds eight and nine have a three-game wild card series. Any other playoff expansion waters it down way too much. Looking ahead, the 2026 Milano Cortina Olympics are scheduled for next year and after this year's 4 Nations Face-Off tournament, there is a lot of intrigue. Rosters will begin to roll out on June 15, with each country expected to name its initial six players, and the rest of the roster expected in December. Lazerus: I still don't trust Canada's goaltending, but Connor Hellebuyck in the second round and Jake Oettinger in the third round didn't exactly fill Americans with confidence, either. Gentille: Hellebuyck and Oettinger could've gotten their teams swept and I still wouldn't have picked against the U.S. here. Granger: After that 4 Nations Face-Off, I'm just pumped to watch the Tkachuk brothers as teammates again, and hope the Olympic-style rules don't dampen the fun. Mirtle: I'm outnumbered here! Until Canada loses a best-on-best, they're winning them all on paper. Especially while Sidney Crosby is around. Goldman: Maybe losing 4 Nations will light a fire under Team USA … but I can't see Crosby losing in what is likely his last Olympics. To close things out, we went back to where we started — Lord Stanley — and asked who will win the Stanley Cup next season? Lazerus: This was harder than I expected. While I'm sure Florida and Edmonton will be in the mix again, it's tough to pick yet another deep run for each of them. Picking Dallas or Carolina, as usual, feels like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football. And after that, every team has a lot of question marks. It could be a wide-open field next year. Or it could be between the same few teams again. Advertisement Gentille: Someday, we'll all be right about the Stars. Granger: The Panthers have some major pending UFAs this summer. Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad, Nate Schmidt and deadline rental Brad Marchand are all on expiring deals. Plus, Bobrovsky will be 37 before the season begins. Having said all of that, my money is still on Florida. Mirtle: Let us at least see free agency first … feels like mass upheaval is coming this offseason with so many teams with tons of cap room. Points to whoever was picking the Wild, as they're finally out of buyout jail. Goldman: I'll buy the Stars if someone else is behind the bench … until then, I'm super curious to see what a team like Tampa Bay does to keep its window open for another year. Here's how our first-, second- and third-round predictions held up, with the actual result of the series, the percent of voters who picked the right team and the percent who picked the right team and number of games: (Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Patrick Smith, Harry How / Getty Images)
New York Times
05-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NHL playoffs second-round winners, 2025 Stanley Cup champion and more predictions
By Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, James Mirtle, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff The second round of the 2025 NHL playoffs will begin tonight with Game 1 of Toronto Maple Leafs-Florida Panthers, followed by Washington Capitals-Carolina Hurricanes, Golden Knights-Edmonton Oilers and Winnipeg Jets-Dallas Stars in the upcoming days. Advertisement What do we expect? What have we learned so far? Who will be left standing for the conference finals? The Athletic surveyed its NHL staff to get their answers to these questions. We asked for a winner for each second-round series, plus updated picks to win the Eastern and Western Conferences, the Stanley Cup and the Conn Smythe. Here are the full results of our survey. To analyze and critique the picks, we've brought in senior writers James Mirtle and Mark Lazerus, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger. Figures are rounded. Mirtle: Not a lot of be-Leaf in the staff, I see. There's no denying the Panthers have really had Toronto's number in recent years, and their second-round meeting two years ago, which Florida won in five games, looms large. But these Leafs should be better equipped to play a series like this than that group. Ultimately, however, this core has earned whatever skepticism it gets. Lazerus: The Panthers are simply built for the playoffs. All the people rending garments over their middling play down the stretch must have never seen the mid-2010s Blackhawks or the late-2010s Penguins yawn their way through another meaningless March. I will say this, though: Anthony Stolarz gives me pause here. For the first time, I actually be-Leaf in a Toronto goalie. This won't be a cakewalk for Florida by any means. Goldman: I think Round 1 was eye-opening on just how good this Panthers team is, too. We all know they have a ton of playoff pedigree, strength in their systems and a deep lineup. But there's a difference between knowing that on paper and actually seeing it all together in action for the first time in Round 1, truly at full strength. Granger: I buried the Panthers too early after watching how banged up and flat-out tired they looked down the stretch of the regular season. Turns out they were just bored. They flipped their playoff switch quickly and look like the team to beat. No one makes life harder on the opposing goalies with bodies in front of the net. Mirtle: It sounds like Frederik Andersen will be healthy, which is a big positive given how well he played in Round 1. This is going to be a really interesting one, given how big of a stylistic mismatch it is. Can Washington survive what is sure to be relentless pressure and puck possession all series long? And can Carolina turn pressure into pucks in the net? Advertisement Granger: This series features the two remaining goalies with the highest save percentage and goals saved above expected in the first round. Both were also injured in the first round after being crashed into, although Logan Thompson's injury kept him out for less than a full game, while Andersen missed more time. Hopefully both are fully healthy now, because this should be a fun duel. Lazerus: This is exactly what Dom's model spit out, too, right? The Capitals are the top seed in the East and have the longest odds to win the championship, per our degenerate friends in Las Vegas. If they win this round, will we finally believe? (No. No, we will not.) Goldman: Being doubted hasn't fazed the Capitals at all this year, and being favored hasn't always helped the Hurricanes. Maybe the vibes decide this one! One thing we all seem to agree on is that this series should be pretty long and of a much different caliber from either of their Round 1 matchups. Mirtle: Edmonton didn't exactly instill a ton of confidence with how Round 1 went, although the Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl show certainly delivered. I know a lot of people will be down on them because of their goaltending, but it's worth noting Adin Hill had a tougher first round than Calvin Pickard, statistically. Lazerus: Hockey's the ultimate team game, right? Yes, except when it comes to the Oilers. McDavid and Draisaitl have attained a level of hockey godliness that makes you question everything about a series like this. Of course, Vegas should win. Handily, if we're being honest. And yet … Goldman: On paper, Vegas has the shutdown talent to manage McDavid and Draisaitl, whether they are together or apart. They aren't as passive stylistically as the Kings, either. It makes perfect sense as to why so many of us (including me!) picked them. But … there always has to be a but for a team with McDavid and Draisaitl. Advertisement Granger: On the one hand, the Golden Knights struggled to slow down the pairing of Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy early in their first-round series, and McDavid and Draisaitl are another level. On the other hand, after Bruce Cassidy put Jack Eichel and William Karlsson on the same line, they shut the Wild down, and we've already seen Karlsson give McDavid problems in the playoffs. This is an incredible matchup that should be one of the more emotional series in this postseason. Mirtle: I haven't even looked at what our Cup picks are like, but I'm assuming Dallas is running away with it. Whoever survived that series was going to be a favorite, and the Stars doing it without Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson was really impressive. Connor Hellebuyck, meanwhile, has left everyone with a lot of doubts. Lazerus: Having spent the past couple of weeks around the Stars, I'm a believer. There's this uncanny coolness to them, just a remarkable poise. Most teams, let's face it, might have rushed Heiskanen back for Games 6 and 7. Dallas didn't. Dallas stayed patient. And now Heiskanen is about to return. And now the moose is off Mikko Rantanen's back. And now Robertson is skating again. And now the Stars are the team to beat. Goldman: The Stars were one of the deepest groups before Rantanen settled into his new surroundings. That's how they were able to weather the loss of Robertson in Round 1. But … can you say the same about the Jets, who are missing Mark Scheifele? Do they have the juice to potentially play without Josh Morrissey, either? If Hellebuyck was playing like his regular-season self, maybe. But the Jets can't count on that. Granger: Perhaps that Game 7 win is what Hellebuyck needed to exorcise his playoff demons, and he's back to being the best goalie on earth. Perhaps the opposing fans will be chanting his name at American Airlines Center as he gets pulled on repeat. At this point, who the heck knows? Mirtle: Yeah, dusting off that Tampa team in five games will do that. Lazerus: I expected the Hurricanes to get more love here. Hard to deny how impressive the Panthers looked, though. Goldman: Whichever team came out of the Battle of Florida was going to get all the support — and the way the Panthers gave Tampa Bay zero space in Round 1 only solidified that. Advertisement Granger: I never thought I'd say this, but no one is talking about the Maple Leafs. In his first postseason starts, Stolarz looked built for this type of hockey. The battle in and around the Toronto crease is going to be fun to watch, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Stolarz come out on top — of that battle or the series. Mirtle: Honestly, these four teams should probably be pretty close together. The West is so good this year; I still think any of these teams can win it here. Granger: I'm in complete agreement. I don't know if I can remember a recent year with a stronger top four in the West. Lazerus: OK, so forget all that stuff I said about the Stars. What if Hellebuyck, now freed from the belief and the burden that he needs to be utterly perfect in order for the Jets to win a series, goes back to being the best goalie on the planet? Hey, it could happen. Just remarkable to see how little love the two top seeds are getting here. Goldman: Same as the East, in that the winner of what was thought of as a best-on-best in Round 1 was going to be the favorite to win it all. Who knows, maybe the adrenaline will run out after such a dramatic series. Mirtle: Interesting that the Hurricanes are the only team no one picked, even though a lot of the oddsmakers have them as heavy favorites in this round. Lazerus: I picked the Stars before it was cool to pick the Stars. Goldman: Avalanche-Lightning was the trending pick before, now it's Stars-Panthers. Maybe the lesson is that we're all wrong and it will be Hurricanes-Oilers! Granger: No, if we follow the pattern, the clear next turn is Jets-Maple Leafs. Mirtle: Signs you had a good first round for $2,000, Alex. What a story it'll be if Rantanen wins it … against Carolina. Lazerus: What Rantanen did in Games 5-7 was the stuff of legend. If Dallas does win it all, it'll be on his back. Goldman: Thomas Harley could have landed high on this list if Rantanen didn't pop off in Round 1. For Vegas, Eichel got hot at the right time, but I think Mark Stone is The Guy who deserves the hype in that series against Minnesota. Advertisement Granger: Having Eichel second here is more about projecting forward than him having a monster first round. He was incredibly quiet for the first five games against Minnesota, but after a brilliant performance to close that series out, and a must-watch matchup against McDavid on tap, Eichel could be heating up. (Top photo of the Maple Leafs and Panthers: Mark Blinch / NHLI via Getty Images)
New York Times
26-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
What's behind Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck's playoff struggles?
ST. LOUIS — A Friday afternoon Google search for 'Connor Hellebuyck' yielded seven of what Google calls its 'top stories.' Three of those seven headlines were about Hellebuyck getting pulled in Game 3. Three more led with Hellebuyck being haunted by playoff demons. The seventh merely referenced Pavel Buchnevich's Game 3 hat trick. Advertisement This is not an ideal place for a franchise goaltender's narrative to land, particularly after producing the best regular-season performance in the NHL for the second straight year while earning front-runner status for the Vezina Trophy and consideration for the Hart. It is also a fair assessment of the Hellebuyck story right now. The 31-year-old goaltender, who specializes in a 'big and boring' playing style that exploits his best-in-class read of the play in front of him, has been beaten badly in recent playoff series. He's a generational goaltender, a future Hall of Famer and perhaps the best American goaltender in history, but Hellebuyck has allowed 52 goals in his last 13 playoff games. 'To not be able to keep four goals off the board is heartbreaking,' Hellebuyck said after Winnipeg's loss to the Colorado Avalanche in the playoffs last year. 'For me to not be able to put my foot down even in a single game is really heartbreaking. It's not typically how I do things.' Hellebuyck's 'typical' is to be the best. This season, the defending Vezina Trophy winner posted the NHL's best save percentage and goals against average and the most shutouts and goals saved above expected among starters. He was brilliant for Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off, saving three goals above expected in the gold medal game as Canada held a dominant edge in slot shots. So, why has he averaged four goals against in 13 playoff games going back to 2023 against the Vegas Golden Knights? Is it something about the way Winnipeg defends in front of him? Something that teams have exploited? Or is it just bad luck in small samples? Remember that Hellebuyck was sensational against Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and company the last time Winnipeg won a playoff series, stopping 151 of 159 shots and posting one shutout in a four-game sweep. He out-battled Pekka Rinne in Game 7 of 2018 — the biggest playoff game in Jets history at the time — and has put together long stretches of spectacular play in front of poor defending before. Advertisement How much of Hellebuyck's 'demons' are just narrative, then, and what are the facts? Let's bring in The Athletic's resident goaltending guru, Jesse Granger, to explore how and why Hellebuyck has been beaten so far this series. Here's how the 16 starting goalies stack up in Goals Saved Above Expected through 6 days of the NHL Playoffs (data via @EvolvingHockey) Blackwood, Andersen, Markstrom and Thompson have been stellar. Really slow starts for 3 Vezina winners at the bottom. — Jesse Granger (@JesseGranger_) April 25, 2025 Hellebuyck hasn't been terrible over the first three games of the series, despite what his statistics might say. He also hasn't been his usual, spectacular self who bails the Jets out of defensive lapses with regularity. At times, I wonder if his unique style of goaltending, which is built around playing deep in his crease to require less movement to stay in position, leaves him less room for error in the postseason. More than any other time of the year, teams crowd the crease in the playoffs and try to score through screens. Because Hellebuyck doesn't typically play these situations aggressively at the top of his crease, more net is available, and when he doesn't see the shot, the puck finds room. This power-play goal by Jordan Kyrou in Game 1 is a good example. Once screened by Oskar Sundqvist, Hellebuyck shrinks into his net and flattens along the goal line by rotating his right skate back. By the time the shot arrives, Hellebuyck is covering significantly less net, especially toward the far-side post, where Kyrou's shot scores. Going back to last year's struggles in the first round against Colorado, it seems like a lot of goals are being scored against Winnipeg in this manner. Hellebuyck is so good at reading the play and staying in position when he sees the puck that teams are relying on firing shots from the point while sending all hands on deck to disrupt Hellebuyck's vision. This goal by Kyrou in Game 3 is another good example because it highlights how many things are going wrong around Hellebuyck that certainly aren't helping. First, it's a five-on-three power play for the St. Louis Blues, which already puts him behind the eight ball. On top of that, Hellebuyck is facing a cross-seam pass while dealing with a screen by Blues forward Brayden Schenn and an additional screen by his own defenseman, Dylan Samberg. If Samberg is going to kneel for that block, he really needs to make it, or he puts his goaltending in a tough spot. Advertisement On most of the goals going in, it's hardly Hellebuyck's fault. But as mentioned, he's also not coming to the rescue as often, and once again, his depth is at least partially to blame. Before the pass, Hellebuyck has his toes at the top of his crease, but when he pushes across, he loses significant depth, ending up about halfway between his goal line and the top of the blue paint. Kyrou's shot is perfectly placed into the corner, but if you look closely, Hellebuyck reacts with his glove. He missed it by an inch. If he were at the top of his crease, the puck likely would have hit him in the glove even if he didn't see it. This isn't a plea for Hellebuyck to suddenly abandon the style that's made him the most consistent goaltender of this generation. It does mean his teammates need to work harder to clear traffic in front. It also means Hellebuyck could do himself a favor by standing tall and holding his ground confidently on these screens, rather than ducking or slumping back in an attempt to see the release. A slippery thing about narratives, for better and for worse, is that they get dictated by results. When a series is won or lost, few observers slow down, rewind and dig into the process behind those results. Wins are inarguable and permanent; process is an opinion. Thus, our understanding of playoff greatness is determined by what happens, not what might have been. When Winnipeg got reverse-swept by Colorado, not all observers considered the scale of the Avs' dominance in their analysis of the Jets' goaltender. Much like St. Louis did Thursday, Colorado had forechecked in waves. It recovered every dumped puck, took its shooting options and recovered so many pucks in a row that in Game 4, Colorado had taken four shots on goal in 20 seconds or less — twice — in the first six minutes. When Jim Montgomery talks about the Blues attacking with 'chaos,' that's what he means. The Blues have found a way to get away from Winnipeg's swarming defence, getting out of outnumbered situations by firing pucks from one side of the offensive zone to the other and then being the first to recover them. They've crowded the Jets' crease, getting bounces and screens, kick plays and great hand-eye coordination. It's Hellebuyck's job to fight through all of that. It's also Winnipeg's job to be better at handling net-front traffic to turn its 2-1 series lead into something approaching a win. If the Blues channel their Game 3 formula, take control of the series and blow out the Jets in Game 4, not many people will remember how they did it. For Hellebuyck's and his team's sake and the enduring belief from Jets fans, the next search for Hellebuyck's name needs to result in a 'W.'
New York Times
15-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NHL 2024-25 season predictions 5.0: How did the trade deadline impact our picks?
By Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, James Mirtle, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff In October, The Athletic's NHL staff didn't consider the Florida Panthers serious contenders to repeat as Stanley Cup champions as they didn't receive a single vote. Additionally, the Dallas Stars only got 21.4 percent of the vote to win it all. Advertisement A little more than five months later, and after savvy moves at the trade deadline, the Panthers and Stars lead as our picks to win the whole thing. What else has changed? This week, we polled staffers on the same questions we asked in the preseason. Here's how our expectations for 2024-25 have further evolved, with expert analysis and critique from NHL senior writers James Mirtle and Mark Lazerus, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger. Note: Tables display the percentage of votes received each month. You can find our season predictions from October here and awards predictions here. You can find our predictions from November here, December here and January here. We skipped staff predictions in February to give readers a chance to share their picks, which you can check out here. Lazerus: There's a lot to unpack here, but my real question is how did just 3.7 percent of us (presumably just one of us) have Florida in January? Even before the Panthers added Brad Marchand and Seth Jones, they were still the Panthers. Champs going on cruise control in December and January is as much a hockey tradition as the handshake line and facewashes, so nobody should have doubted them. But yeah, no surprise that Dallas and Florida took huge leaps. Two of the best teams in the league loaded up at the deadline and we could be looking at another Sun Belt Final. Goldman: RIP to any Pacific contender — I guess no one liked what Vegas or Edmonton did at the deadline! It's hard to compete with the Central Division, and the Stars are rightfully the favorite. Maybe the Avalanche would get more support here if they weren't on a collision course for a Round 1 matchup with Dallas. Granger: Pete DeBoer has come so close so many times, and it feels like this might finally be his year. The Stars were already loaded at forward before adding Mikko Rantanen and Mikael Granlund. They are going to be a matchup nightmare for just about everyone. Jake Oettinger is proven in the postseason. There's a lot to like about the Stars. Advertisement Mirtle: The league is still wide open, even if nearly 80 percent of us chose two teams. That's not what the oddsmakers are saying! The Lightning and Golden Knights, in particular, deserve some more love, even if their deadlines weren't as sexy. And the Avs, with Mackenzie Blackwood playing this well, should be right there with Dallas. Lazerus: Oof, New Jersey. As someone whose The Athletic fantasy-league team was built around Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton, I feel this one. Goldman: I can get behind the idea that a Florida team will reach the Final for the sixth consecutive season. Tampa Bay rounded out its edges, which skyrocketed its chances of going on a deep run. Granger: The Central and Atlantic domination continues here. It's hard to blame the voters after that deadline. I picked Tampa Bay myself. Andrei Vasilevskiy has looked like his old self lately, and the Lightning's top scorers are all rounding into form at a good time of year. Mirtle: I stuck with the Hurricanes here, the lone holdout left. I can see a world where the Big Three in the Atlantic beat the tar out of one another, and it's smooth sailing on the other side, especially with what's happened to New Jersey. Lazerus: Shout out to the Blue Jackets, who were the second-most popular pick at the start of the season to finish dead last. Now, they are sitting in a playoff spot in mid-March. Best story in the league in years. Goldman: A total flip here between San Jose and Chicago makes all the sense in the world — one team is trotting out Alexandar Georgiev in goal, while Spencer Knight is cooking in goal for the Blackhawks. Granger: The Sharks had a solid deadline in terms of building for the future, and that includes winning this poll. Mirtle: It will be fun to see Macklin Celebrini lead a bunch of kids up the standings in the next few years. Has a team finishing 32nd ever felt like it's on this much of an upswing before? Lazerus: Fortunately for both the Rangers and Canucks, they play in very quiet, super-sane markets without a lot of day-to-day scrutiny. I'm sure everyone will handle this with grace and perspective. Goldman: Even if the Maple Leafs and Oilers faceplant in Round 1, the Rangers and Canucks take the cake here. Advertisement Granger: I was one of the few holdouts waiting for the Rangers to go on a run, but even I've lost hope. Typically, when an expected contender falls this short of expectations, goaltending plays a large role. That's what makes this so odd. Igor Shesterkin has been brilliant, despite facing more high-danger shots than any goalie in the NHL, but it still hasn't translated to wins. Mirtle: J.T. Miller has enjoyed being part of double trainwrecks this season, so he has that going for his season. But wait, who was picking Florida and Dallas at the beginning of the year? Should we name and shame? Lazerus: Yes, the Lightning look like the Lightning again, and the Jets are the best team in the regular season. But everyone's sleeping on Vegas. You'd think we'd know better by now. Granger: The Golden Knights aren't as deep as in years past, but still have arguably the strongest center group in the league led by Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl and William Karlsson. They're a big, strong team built for playoff hockey. It will come down to health. Goldman: The Capitals are rightfully gaining steam after sustaining their success across three-quarters of the season. Washington is the real deal, and there are some weaknesses in the Metro and wild-card picture to take advantage of. Mirtle: Looks like a list with four plain contenders to me. I don't think any of Tampa, Winnipeg, Washington or Vegas would be a surprise, even if their odds were middling to start the year. Lazerus: We've all been focusing so much on the Eastern Conference wild-card race that the West has gotten incredibly close under our noses. Columbus is the right call here, but if Utah sneaks in with this second-half surge, that'll make a heck of a story in its own right. Goldman: Woof, Detroit. The Red Wings had such an opportunity to return to the playoff picture, but with one of the most daunting schedules ahead, it won't be easy. The Blue Jackets are the slam-dunk pick here now. Advertisement Granger: It's not just that the Blue Jackets are winning that's so shocking. It's how they're winning. This team is so much fun to watch. They fill the net with pucks on a nightly basis. Mirtle: Columbus is the league's best story by a mile, but Utah has been playing great hockey lately, and it would be a lot of fun to see the momentum build there if they make it in. I questioned them not selling at the deadline, but maybe it was worth it. Vancouver certainly isn't inspiring a lot of confidence lately. Lazerus: It feels like Peter Laviolette has been on the verge of being fired for four months. What does he have to do to keep his job? If the Rangers sneak into the playoffs, is that enough? Does he get another chance if they don't? Does he have to win a playoff round? Is that even fair to ask, given how much the Rangers have traded away and how good their likely first-round opponents will be? No easy answers in New York. Goldman: I can't see Laviolette making it past this season. His coaching style and systems have a short shelf life. He isn't to blame for all the Rangers' shortcomings, but he certainly has contributed to this disappointing year. That probably is more of an offseason problem, though. (*-playoff team in 2023-24) Lazerus: The two people who picked the Red Wings here have a lot more faith in them than all the Detroit fans in my mentions and comment sections after the Petr Mrázek trade. Steve Yzerman is infallible no more. Goldman: We've all been waiting for one of those up-and-coming Atlantic Division teams to finally turn the corner. The Red Wings' last stretch may have crushed their chances, but it looks like the Senators are finally ready for the playoffs. Granger: He's fought through some injuries, but outside of that, Linus Ullmark has been everything the Senators dreamed of when they traded for him. He's brought a calming presence to the back end, and helped the entire team learn how to win together. Mirtle: Ottawa with goaltending is a different beast. They could surprise someone in Round 1. (*-playoff team in 2023-24) Lazerus: A precipitous plummet for the Canucks. Fun fact: Entering Friday, Vancouver had a higher expected-goals percentage at five-on-five than Tampa Bay (50.28-49.67), but Tampa Bay had a plus-51 goal differential, while Vancouver had a minus-20. OK, that fact probably isn't fun for Canucks fans. Advertisement Goldman: Even after an underwhelming deadline, the Canucks have a real shot with the return of Quinn Hughes. But I'm still keeping an eye on Utah to disrupt the playoff picture — Karel Vejmelka has been excellent, and this team is finally healthy. Granger: This should be a fun race down the stretch. I like Calgary's roster the most out of these three teams, but the Flames' schedule down the stretch is pretty brutal. They play the Ducks and Sharks twice each and will need every point out of those games because the rest is murderers' row. Mirtle: Yeah, I was one of the three Utah voters. The Hockey Clubbers have been fun to watch lately, running off an 8-3-2 stretch (entering Friday) at just the right time. Lazerus: The correct answer here is Connor Hellebuyck, and I expected Leon Draisaitl to be running away with this, but how about Nikita Kucherov — averaging 1.51 points per game for one of the biggest surprise teams of the season — getting zero votes? Goldman: Once again, this is Zach Werenski erasure. Goalies and defensemen always get overlooked by star-powered forwards. Granger: When Carey Price won the Hart in 2014-15 he saved 38.88 goals above expected while the next-closest goalie stopped 20.01 (a gap of 18.87). This season, Hellebuyck leads the league with 43.23 GSAx entering Friday, and the next closest had 28.3 (a gap of 14.93). Hellebuyck's save percentage (.927) is also .026 above the league average (.901) compared to Price's (.933), which was only .018 above the league average that year. This should go to Hellebuyck. He's been the most valuable player in the league. Mirtle: Is this the year the non-forwards get some real MVP love? As someone who has burned many Hart votes on goalies over the years, I'm skeptical. Lazerus: *stares blankly at the Auston Matthews vote* Mirtle: Err, did someone send in an old ballot? Pavel Dorofeyev has more goals than Matthews, who is still playing through something and has scored three times in his last 16 games. Goldman: Boring! It's a race for second place, and there are like 10 players in contention for that. Granger: At least we're going to get one of these predictions right. Lazerus: It's a shame that Quinn Hughes missed so much time, because this could have turned into one hell of a three-horse race. Granger: Hughes' injury derailed what was shaping up to be one of the better Norris races in recent history. Goldman: Again, this is Werenski erasure. There are some real contenders for that number three spot on the ballot since Hughes missed so much time with injury. He could still land on the final, though, considering how excellent he has been when healthy and other key injuries in the field. Mirtle: Werenski has been one of the best stories of the season. Here's hoping this one doesn't just get decided by point totals. Lazerus: I'd like to see Sam Reinhart get his due here, but I expect we're in for a Patrice Bergeron-esque run where Aleksander Barkov wins this every year for the foreseeable future. Goldman: Centers will always crush wingers in this race, so Barkov will always have that edge over Reinhart. Granger: I agree with all of that, but I also love seeing Adam Lowry get a vote here. He's such an underrated piece of that Jets team, and he creates matchup problems on a nightly basis with his speed and physicality. That third line with Lowry, Nino Niederreiter and Mason Appleton is an absolute weapon. Mirtle: This would be Barkov's third Selke in five years. Only Bergeron and Bob Gainey have won more than three, which now feels inevitable, given Barkov is only 29. Can he match Bergeron's record of six? Granger: Congrats to Hellebuyck, who should become only the fourth goalie to win at least three Vezinas since they changed the award criteria in 1981. The others are Patrick Roy, Dominik Hasek and Martin Brodeur. So … pretty solid company to keep. Lazerus: Y'all sure we don't want to throw a vote Auston Matthews' way? Mirtle: Well, this did happen … Auston Matthews and Elvis Merzlikens both lost their sticks, Elvis took AM34's so Auston picked up the goalie stick 😭 Both got two minutes for swapping sticks — B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) January 23, 2025 Lazerus: I don't mean to diminish the outstanding job that Spencer Carbery has done with a Capitals team we all thought of as an also-ran, but Dean Evason might have had one of the toughest jobs in NHL history and has his team on the brink of the playoffs. If that's not the coach of the year, I don't know what is. Advertisement Goldman: Carbery should have gotten more Jack Adams nods last year, because he did a lot with a little in Washington. That would probably clear the way for Evason this year. It feels like a safe bet that one of them will take home the trophy this year, and both have unquestionably earned it. Granger: I could not agree more, Shayna. There are two deserving coaches this season, but only one can get the award. Mirtle: This one feels as simple as: Blue Jackets make playoffs, Evason wins; Blue Jackets miss playoffs, Carbery wins. Lazerus: I picked a goalie for Hart and a goalie for Calder. Goalies deserve love, too. Goldman: Can't stop howling for Dustin Wolf. He could drag this Flames team to the playoffs! The Calder is the bar for him, but he could even earn some Vezina nods to finish top three as well. AWOOOOO 🐺 Dustin Wolf becomes the first @NHLFlames rookie goalie to record three @pepsi shutouts in a single season! — NHL (@NHL) March 9, 2025 Granger: You two know the way to my heart. Fun fact: Wolf's 26.82 goals saved above expected are the most by a goalie 23 years or younger in the last 17 years. Mirtle: Celebrini has been awesome to watch and likely has the best career of the players here. But best season? Entering Friday, Wolf is fourth in the entire NHL in goals saved above expected and tied for fifth in save percentage. As Shayna mentions, he should get Vezina votes, especially if Calgary makes the postseason. Plus, he's 6-foot-nothing and 166 pounds, a wee leprechaun by NHL goalie standards. Anthony Stolarz's chest protector is bigger than that! (Top photo of the Stars celebrating a win: Derek Cain / Getty Images)
New York Times
10-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Weekend NHL rankings: No, your predictions are wrong
Well, well, well, what do we have here? We asked. You voted. The results are in. Fan picks for Stanley Cup winner, awards and more On @TheAthleticNHL ⤵️ — Jesse Granger (@JesseGranger_) February 8, 2025 GO DEEPER NHL fan predictions: Your picks for Stanley Cup winner, awards and more Yes, it's yet another batch of predictions. But this time it's not me or the other writers making the picks, it's you. Yes, you, personally, because I'm going to assume you took part in The Athletic's recent survey. More than 2,500 readers did. Including you. And that means this week, I get to tell you why your predictions are bad. Advertisement Oh, how the turns have tabled. Give me a second while I get into full 'comment section' mode. (Hits self in the head with a brick several times.) Heh, heh … clicks. OK, let's do this. 1. You don't believe in the Capitals — This was surprising, because it's been explained to me that anyone who watched the games would know this Washington season is for real. I haven't had them in my one-spot all season, despite them starting to pull away at the top of the standings. But I've had them as high as No. 2, and they've been somewhere in the top five for 10 straight weeks. Meanwhile, you all had them as just your seventh-most mentioned Cup pick. Any thoughts on that you'd like to share, Caps fans? 2. You're wrong on the Hart Trophy — You think it's going to be Leon Draisaitl in a narrow win over Nathan MacKinnon, and both of those picks are reasonable. But only 14.2 percent of you have the right answer: This is the year the Hart goes back to the goalies, with Connor Hellebuyck uniting the 'this isn't just supposed to be an offense award' voting block while Draisaitl, MacKinnon and Connor McDavid split the forward vote. 3. You're super wrong on the Calder — Lane Hutson is the best player ever and the 79.4 percent of you who don't think he's the best rookie in the world have never watched a single hockey game in your miserable lives! Am I doing this right, Habs fans? Too calm and reasonable? I thought so, I'll try to get a little more amped up for next time. 4. You're probably wrong on last place — The Sharks have opened up a reasonably significant lead on the Hawks in the battle for dead last, but 53.7 percent of you still think Chicago is going to take the top lottery odds. I thought so, too, up until a few weeks ago, but the Sharks are not only worse right now, they're probably in better position to subtract at the deadline. Also, that people were picking teams like the Sabres, Ducks and (especially) Rangers suggests that some of you don't know how standings work. Advertisement 5. You're still somehow sleeping on the Panthers — I get that picking the defending champs feels boring, especially when that same team also went to the Final the year before. Voter fatigue is real. But still … only 2.7 percent of you have the Panthers as your Cup pick? That's less than what you'd expect if we just distributed the votes randomly among all 32 teams. All this for a team in a very winnable Atlantic, whose only competition for top spot in the division is an inconsistent Leafs team, and whose main competition in the conference finals would either be that Capitals team you don't believe in, or a Hurricanes team you mostly do believe in but that hasn't really clicked since the Mikko Rantanen deal. Sometimes, the boring pick is the right one, and while the Panthers have been in and out of my top five all year long, you'd better believe I wouldn't have them lumped into 'other.' On to this week's rankings, which are better than yours, you imbecile. The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup. The trade board has been updated, and … honestly, maybe don't bother taking deadline day off this year. 5. Florida Panthers (34-20-3, +23 true goals differential*) — Hey, after that rant up above, I've got to put my money where my mouth is. But five wins in six to regain top spot in the Atlantic helps make my case. 4. Dallas Stars (35-18-2, +42) — Funniest non-celebration of the week honors go to Jamie Benn, who apparently didn't feel like putting an eight-spot on the lowly Sharks was even worth acknowledging. Jamie Benn joins the Stars scoring party! 🥳 — Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) February 9, 2025 3. Washington Capitals (36-11-8, +59) — The Caps' shootout loss to Utah was a reminder of how weird it is that Alex Ovechkin, the greatest goal scorer in the history of the sport, often doesn't get chosen to take part in the goal-scoring contest. I mean, we get it — he's never been a breakaway guy, and it's hard to set up the top-of-the-circle one-timer in a shootout — but try explaining that to a non-fan. Advertisement 2. Edmonton Oilers (34-17-4, +31) — Prediction contest update: The dreaded all-or-nothing bonus question could be a bloodbath, with Draisaitl sitting as the only player in the league comfortably on pace for 50 goals. About 64 percent of you chose to roll the dice on that question ('Name one and only one player who will finish this season with at least 50 goals, but who is not Auston Matthews') and less than 20 percent of those took Draisaitl. 1. Winnipeg Jets (39-14-3, +68) — Yep, I'm on board. Count me in with the other rankings, who also picked this weekend to move the Jets into top spot. They head into the break having won eight straight, including wins over the Avalanche, Hurricanes and Capitals. And they come off the break with a stretch of seven games in which Ottawa is the only playoff team they'll face. The race for top spot in the West might be over by March. In other Jets news, Mark Scheifele is reportedly next up if Sidney Crosby can't go for Team Canada, although that decision might not come down until right at tonight's final roster deadline. *Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason. Not ranked: Detroit Red Wings — OK, now that they've finally lost a game, let's regroup and see where this team is really at. Saturday's loss to the Lightning snapped a seven-game win streak and left the Wings with a mark of 15-5-1 under Todd McLellan. That's still an excellent record, obviously, and it's been enough to get them into the last wild-card spot. It's been an impressive climb — when the win streak started on Jan. 23, they were 14th in the conference, five points out of a playoff spot. When McLellan took over, they were 15th, and eight points back. To cover all that ground and pass all those teams in just six weeks is an impressive feat. But it still leaves them in a precarious spot, setting up a second half in which every point will be crucial. And for our purposes, it makes them a tough team to evaluate. The pessimist's view is they're a mediocre team that got hot for just long enough to barely climb into a wild-card spot. Every team has a win streak at some point, and while those wins count as much as any other, regression arrives eventually. When it does, these Wings will revert back to being what they've been for a few years now — a wild-card bubble team that ends up falling short. Advertisement The optimist's case is McLellan, and the fact his arrival coincides with the best six weeks this team has played in years, isn't some random quirk. This is his team now, and he's unlocked something here. Derek Lalonde had sucked the life out of this group, and McLellan brought it back. Maybe they won't play at a 120-point pace for the rest of the year, but we shouldn't worry about anything that happened in the pre-McLellan era. And if you buy that, the Wings are going to roll to a playoff spot. Of course, you could also be boring and say the truth is somewhere in the middle. That might be good enough for Wings fans, who haven't seen a playoff game since 2016 and might figure an underdog run as a wild card would be good enough for this season especially given how it started. But at least they can spend the break hoping for something more, as unlikely as it seems. The five teams headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for a top pick that could be James Hagens, Matthew Schaefer or someone else. The 4 Nations Face-Off is here, meaning the NHL is on break until Feb. 22. We have a ton of insightful preview content coming over the next few days. We also had this post, in which we made a bunch of trades for an event that has no trades, which was maybe not as insightful but you should definitely still read it. 5. Montreal Canadiens (25-26-5, -31) — Well, it was fun while it lasted. 4. Philadelphia Flyers (24-26-7, -30) — It's possible I'm just slipping them in here because nobody in Philadelphia is thinking about hockey this morning. But while they're here: Am I reading too much into it, or is it a little weird to have traded two guys away who then immediately start talking about how they feel respected? 3. Nashville Predators (19-28-7, -36) — Saturday's matchup featured the Predators on a six-game losing streak and the Sabres having won four straight, so it goes without saying Nashville won. They gave Juuse Saros the night off, which was probably a good move given how much action he might be seeing over the next week with that mess of a Team Finland blue line. Advertisement 2. Chicago Blackhawks (17-31-7, -41) — We've apparently made a collective decision that February will be international pick-on-Connor Bedard month. Is that fair? Not necessarily, and Scott went back and broke down Bedard's recent shifts to see which criticisms have been valid and which may have been misdirected. 1. San Jose Sharks (15-35-7, -64) — Saturday's blowout loss to the Stars was the last chance to see them on home ice for a full month. After 4 Nations ends, the Sharks head out on a seven-game road trip and don't get back for a game until March 8. Not ranked: Buffalo Sabres — No Sabres in the bottom five this week, for the first time since mid-December, thanks to those four straight wins heading into the weekend. That stretch hasn't pushed them back into the playoff hunt, mind you; it would probably have needed to hit double digits to even come close to that. So today, I just want to ask Sabres fans one question: Was that win streak a good thing? Yes or no. And this isn't meant to be rhetorical, I'm really not sure. Do you want to see this team win right now? I can see both sides. On one hand, you root for a team because you want to see them win. And even if that's more of a long view, you have to start somewhere. The journey of a thousand miles begins with four consecutive steps, that sort of thing. If there's any hope of the Sabres winning anything with this core, they have to start showing us some proof of concept at some point. If it's happening right now, that's good news. Unless it isn't, because come on, we all know this story. A broken team drops out of the running, then heats up against backup goalies and opponents who are looking past them, winning just enough games to accomplish two things: tanking their lottery odds and convincing their front office to take the path of least resistance and stay the course. The Buffalo Sabres as soon as they're 47 points out of the playoffs race — sba (@essbeeay) February 2, 2025 I'm torn. So Sabres fans, nice and simple: Is this streak a good thing or a bad thing? Let me know in the comments. I'm genuinely curious how this is playing out in the fan base. (Photo of Panthers fans: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
