NHL 2024-25 season predictions 5.0: How did the trade deadline impact our picks?

New York Times

15-03-2025

By Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, James Mirtle, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff
In October, The Athletic's NHL staff didn't consider the Florida Panthers serious contenders to repeat as Stanley Cup champions as they didn't receive a single vote. Additionally, the Dallas Stars only got 21.4 percent of the vote to win it all.
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A little more than five months later, and after savvy moves at the trade deadline, the Panthers and Stars lead as our picks to win the whole thing.
What else has changed? This week, we polled staffers on the same questions we asked in the preseason. Here's how our expectations for 2024-25 have further evolved, with expert analysis and critique from NHL senior writers James Mirtle and Mark Lazerus, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger.
Note: Tables display the percentage of votes received each month. You can find our season predictions from October here and awards predictions here. You can find our predictions from November here, December here and January here. We skipped staff predictions in February to give readers a chance to share their picks, which you can check out here.
Lazerus: There's a lot to unpack here, but my real question is how did just 3.7 percent of us (presumably just one of us) have Florida in January? Even before the Panthers added Brad Marchand and Seth Jones, they were still the Panthers. Champs going on cruise control in December and January is as much a hockey tradition as the handshake line and facewashes, so nobody should have doubted them. But yeah, no surprise that Dallas and Florida took huge leaps. Two of the best teams in the league loaded up at the deadline and we could be looking at another Sun Belt Final.
Goldman: RIP to any Pacific contender — I guess no one liked what Vegas or Edmonton did at the deadline! It's hard to compete with the Central Division, and the Stars are rightfully the favorite. Maybe the Avalanche would get more support here if they weren't on a collision course for a Round 1 matchup with Dallas.
Granger: Pete DeBoer has come so close so many times, and it feels like this might finally be his year. The Stars were already loaded at forward before adding Mikko Rantanen and Mikael Granlund. They are going to be a matchup nightmare for just about everyone. Jake Oettinger is proven in the postseason. There's a lot to like about the Stars.
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Mirtle: The league is still wide open, even if nearly 80 percent of us chose two teams. That's not what the oddsmakers are saying! The Lightning and Golden Knights, in particular, deserve some more love, even if their deadlines weren't as sexy. And the Avs, with Mackenzie Blackwood playing this well, should be right there with Dallas.
Lazerus: Oof, New Jersey. As someone whose The Athletic fantasy-league team was built around Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton, I feel this one.
Goldman: I can get behind the idea that a Florida team will reach the Final for the sixth consecutive season. Tampa Bay rounded out its edges, which skyrocketed its chances of going on a deep run.
Granger: The Central and Atlantic domination continues here. It's hard to blame the voters after that deadline. I picked Tampa Bay myself. Andrei Vasilevskiy has looked like his old self lately, and the Lightning's top scorers are all rounding into form at a good time of year.
Mirtle: I stuck with the Hurricanes here, the lone holdout left. I can see a world where the Big Three in the Atlantic beat the tar out of one another, and it's smooth sailing on the other side, especially with what's happened to New Jersey.
Lazerus: Shout out to the Blue Jackets, who were the second-most popular pick at the start of the season to finish dead last. Now, they are sitting in a playoff spot in mid-March. Best story in the league in years.
Goldman: A total flip here between San Jose and Chicago makes all the sense in the world — one team is trotting out Alexandar Georgiev in goal, while Spencer Knight is cooking in goal for the Blackhawks.
Granger: The Sharks had a solid deadline in terms of building for the future, and that includes winning this poll.
Mirtle: It will be fun to see Macklin Celebrini lead a bunch of kids up the standings in the next few years. Has a team finishing 32nd ever felt like it's on this much of an upswing before?
Lazerus: Fortunately for both the Rangers and Canucks, they play in very quiet, super-sane markets without a lot of day-to-day scrutiny. I'm sure everyone will handle this with grace and perspective.
Goldman: Even if the Maple Leafs and Oilers faceplant in Round 1, the Rangers and Canucks take the cake here.
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Granger: I was one of the few holdouts waiting for the Rangers to go on a run, but even I've lost hope. Typically, when an expected contender falls this short of expectations, goaltending plays a large role. That's what makes this so odd. Igor Shesterkin has been brilliant, despite facing more high-danger shots than any goalie in the NHL, but it still hasn't translated to wins.
Mirtle: J.T. Miller has enjoyed being part of double trainwrecks this season, so he has that going for his season. But wait, who was picking Florida and Dallas at the beginning of the year? Should we name and shame?
Lazerus: Yes, the Lightning look like the Lightning again, and the Jets are the best team in the regular season. But everyone's sleeping on Vegas. You'd think we'd know better by now.
Granger: The Golden Knights aren't as deep as in years past, but still have arguably the strongest center group in the league led by Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl and William Karlsson. They're a big, strong team built for playoff hockey. It will come down to health.
Goldman: The Capitals are rightfully gaining steam after sustaining their success across three-quarters of the season. Washington is the real deal, and there are some weaknesses in the Metro and wild-card picture to take advantage of.
Mirtle: Looks like a list with four plain contenders to me. I don't think any of Tampa, Winnipeg, Washington or Vegas would be a surprise, even if their odds were middling to start the year.
Lazerus: We've all been focusing so much on the Eastern Conference wild-card race that the West has gotten incredibly close under our noses. Columbus is the right call here, but if Utah sneaks in with this second-half surge, that'll make a heck of a story in its own right.
Goldman: Woof, Detroit. The Red Wings had such an opportunity to return to the playoff picture, but with one of the most daunting schedules ahead, it won't be easy. The Blue Jackets are the slam-dunk pick here now.
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Granger: It's not just that the Blue Jackets are winning that's so shocking. It's how they're winning. This team is so much fun to watch. They fill the net with pucks on a nightly basis.
Mirtle: Columbus is the league's best story by a mile, but Utah has been playing great hockey lately, and it would be a lot of fun to see the momentum build there if they make it in. I questioned them not selling at the deadline, but maybe it was worth it. Vancouver certainly isn't inspiring a lot of confidence lately.
Lazerus: It feels like Peter Laviolette has been on the verge of being fired for four months. What does he have to do to keep his job? If the Rangers sneak into the playoffs, is that enough? Does he get another chance if they don't? Does he have to win a playoff round? Is that even fair to ask, given how much the Rangers have traded away and how good their likely first-round opponents will be? No easy answers in New York.
Goldman: I can't see Laviolette making it past this season. His coaching style and systems have a short shelf life. He isn't to blame for all the Rangers' shortcomings, but he certainly has contributed to this disappointing year. That probably is more of an offseason problem, though.
(*-playoff team in 2023-24)
Lazerus: The two people who picked the Red Wings here have a lot more faith in them than all the Detroit fans in my mentions and comment sections after the Petr Mrázek trade. Steve Yzerman is infallible no more.
Goldman: We've all been waiting for one of those up-and-coming Atlantic Division teams to finally turn the corner. The Red Wings' last stretch may have crushed their chances, but it looks like the Senators are finally ready for the playoffs.
Granger: He's fought through some injuries, but outside of that, Linus Ullmark has been everything the Senators dreamed of when they traded for him. He's brought a calming presence to the back end, and helped the entire team learn how to win together.
Mirtle: Ottawa with goaltending is a different beast. They could surprise someone in Round 1.
(*-playoff team in 2023-24)
Lazerus: A precipitous plummet for the Canucks. Fun fact: Entering Friday, Vancouver had a higher expected-goals percentage at five-on-five than Tampa Bay (50.28-49.67), but Tampa Bay had a plus-51 goal differential, while Vancouver had a minus-20. OK, that fact probably isn't fun for Canucks fans.
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Goldman: Even after an underwhelming deadline, the Canucks have a real shot with the return of Quinn Hughes. But I'm still keeping an eye on Utah to disrupt the playoff picture — Karel Vejmelka has been excellent, and this team is finally healthy.
Granger: This should be a fun race down the stretch. I like Calgary's roster the most out of these three teams, but the Flames' schedule down the stretch is pretty brutal. They play the Ducks and Sharks twice each and will need every point out of those games because the rest is murderers' row.
Mirtle: Yeah, I was one of the three Utah voters. The Hockey Clubbers have been fun to watch lately, running off an 8-3-2 stretch (entering Friday) at just the right time.
Lazerus: The correct answer here is Connor Hellebuyck, and I expected Leon Draisaitl to be running away with this, but how about Nikita Kucherov — averaging 1.51 points per game for one of the biggest surprise teams of the season — getting zero votes?
Goldman: Once again, this is Zach Werenski erasure. Goalies and defensemen always get overlooked by star-powered forwards.
Granger: When Carey Price won the Hart in 2014-15 he saved 38.88 goals above expected while the next-closest goalie stopped 20.01 (a gap of 18.87). This season, Hellebuyck leads the league with 43.23 GSAx entering Friday, and the next closest had 28.3 (a gap of 14.93). Hellebuyck's save percentage (.927) is also .026 above the league average (.901) compared to Price's (.933), which was only .018 above the league average that year. This should go to Hellebuyck. He's been the most valuable player in the league.
Mirtle: Is this the year the non-forwards get some real MVP love? As someone who has burned many Hart votes on goalies over the years, I'm skeptical.
Lazerus: *stares blankly at the Auston Matthews vote*
Mirtle: Err, did someone send in an old ballot? Pavel Dorofeyev has more goals than Matthews, who is still playing through something and has scored three times in his last 16 games.
Goldman: Boring! It's a race for second place, and there are like 10 players in contention for that.
Granger: At least we're going to get one of these predictions right.
Lazerus: It's a shame that Quinn Hughes missed so much time, because this could have turned into one hell of a three-horse race.
Granger: Hughes' injury derailed what was shaping up to be one of the better Norris races in recent history.
Goldman: Again, this is Werenski erasure. There are some real contenders for that number three spot on the ballot since Hughes missed so much time with injury. He could still land on the final, though, considering how excellent he has been when healthy and other key injuries in the field.
Mirtle: Werenski has been one of the best stories of the season. Here's hoping this one doesn't just get decided by point totals.
Lazerus: I'd like to see Sam Reinhart get his due here, but I expect we're in for a Patrice Bergeron-esque run where Aleksander Barkov wins this every year for the foreseeable future.
Goldman: Centers will always crush wingers in this race, so Barkov will always have that edge over Reinhart.
Granger: I agree with all of that, but I also love seeing Adam Lowry get a vote here. He's such an underrated piece of that Jets team, and he creates matchup problems on a nightly basis with his speed and physicality. That third line with Lowry, Nino Niederreiter and Mason Appleton is an absolute weapon.
Mirtle: This would be Barkov's third Selke in five years. Only Bergeron and Bob Gainey have won more than three, which now feels inevitable, given Barkov is only 29. Can he match Bergeron's record of six?
Granger: Congrats to Hellebuyck, who should become only the fourth goalie to win at least three Vezinas since they changed the award criteria in 1981. The others are Patrick Roy, Dominik Hasek and Martin Brodeur. So … pretty solid company to keep.
Lazerus: Y'all sure we don't want to throw a vote Auston Matthews' way?
Mirtle: Well, this did happen …
Auston Matthews and Elvis Merzlikens both lost their sticks, Elvis took AM34's so Auston picked up the goalie stick 😭
Both got two minutes for swapping sticks pic.twitter.com/s7pN1ac1YG
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) January 23, 2025
Lazerus: I don't mean to diminish the outstanding job that Spencer Carbery has done with a Capitals team we all thought of as an also-ran, but Dean Evason might have had one of the toughest jobs in NHL history and has his team on the brink of the playoffs. If that's not the coach of the year, I don't know what is.
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Goldman: Carbery should have gotten more Jack Adams nods last year, because he did a lot with a little in Washington. That would probably clear the way for Evason this year. It feels like a safe bet that one of them will take home the trophy this year, and both have unquestionably earned it.
Granger: I could not agree more, Shayna. There are two deserving coaches this season, but only one can get the award.
Mirtle: This one feels as simple as: Blue Jackets make playoffs, Evason wins; Blue Jackets miss playoffs, Carbery wins.
Lazerus: I picked a goalie for Hart and a goalie for Calder. Goalies deserve love, too.
Goldman: Can't stop howling for Dustin Wolf. He could drag this Flames team to the playoffs! The Calder is the bar for him, but he could even earn some Vezina nods to finish top three as well.
AWOOOOO 🐺
Dustin Wolf becomes the first @NHLFlames rookie goalie to record three @pepsi shutouts in a single season! pic.twitter.com/VS6RVc7b8y
— NHL (@NHL) March 9, 2025
Granger: You two know the way to my heart. Fun fact: Wolf's 26.82 goals saved above expected are the most by a goalie 23 years or younger in the last 17 years.
Mirtle: Celebrini has been awesome to watch and likely has the best career of the players here. But best season? Entering Friday, Wolf is fourth in the entire NHL in goals saved above expected and tied for fifth in save percentage. As Shayna mentions, he should get Vezina votes, especially if Calgary makes the postseason. Plus, he's 6-foot-nothing and 166 pounds, a wee leprechaun by NHL goalie standards. Anthony Stolarz's chest protector is bigger than that!
(Top photo of the Stars celebrating a win: Derek Cain / Getty Images)