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Yahoo
5 days ago
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- Yahoo
PWHL expansion mock draft: The Athletic plays GM and picks players for Vancouver and Seattle
The Professional Women's Hockey League has revealed which players will be protected in the league's first-ever expansion draft. Now it's time for us to put our GM hats on. For the next five days, Seattle and Vancouver will be able to sign players — either free agents or those who went unprotected — ahead of the June 9 expansion draft. Before that officially begins, however, Hailey Salvian and Shayna Goldman will be building their own rosters to simulate how the PWHL's expansion draft process could go if they were decision-makers. Advertisement Some ground rules: The PWHL expansion teams are permitted to sign up to five players during the signing window, and will make at least seven draft selections to get to a roster of 12 players. Only players signed through 2025-26, or whose rights remain with a team, can be protected. A refresher on who was protected and who might be available can be found here. After each team loses two players, in either the signing window or the draft, they will be permitted to protect one additional player. We will project who those players might be as part of the process. The league has yet to announce the expansion draft order, so we did a random selection, which Seattle won. While we will follow the league's rules, this is not meant to be a projection or even speculation on what could happen in the draft. These are the decisions would make if we were building our own expansion teams. Advertisement As reported Tuesday, the PWHL Players Association voted to disclose salaries, but we don't have access to those figures just yet so the signing window — and more generally constructing teams that will be cap compliant — is not a perfect science. This exercise is more about fun, and the friends we make (or lose) along the way. Let's begin. The signing window Vancouver (Salvian): This is a near-perfect start for the Vancouver franchise, if I do say so myself. The organization leaves the signing window with a star forward, two elite defenders, a local cornerstone and a starting goalie. Toronto not protecting Sarah Nurse gives me the chance to sign one of the most marketable women's hockey players in the world to a brand-new franchise. Not to mention, she was second in league scoring last season and was nearly a point-per-game player before getting injured this season. Jennifer Gardiner, from Surrey, B.C., is well-rounded and can easily be a top-line piece beside Nurse, or become a middle-six depth player depending on who we draft. Emerance Maschmeyer is a reliable No. 1 goalie and an easy fit for Vancouver. Advertisement Stealing both Sophie Jaques and Claire Thompson away from Minnesota was the toughest part of this window, with Shayna in Seattle also trying to lock them in. The selling point for each — given they'd both be drafted if they went unsigned — was to play in a major Canadian market. For Thompson specifically, joining Vancouver gives her the option to play professionally in her home country before returning to medical school. I'm OK with using one of these slots for potentially just one year of Thompson, too. Seattle (Goldman): The idea of the signing window? Find franchise cornerstones to build around. That starts with Knight, one of the greatest hockey players of all time. After a tough first year in Boston, she showed what she still has left in the tank this past season. But the harsh reality is that while Knight will help usher in this new era of hockey in Seattle, longevity is another factor to consider. That's what inspired the Jesse Compher and Hannah Bilka signings, even with Alex Carpenter available. Carpenter is 31 years old and still has a lot of hockey left to play. But there's something about adding two expensive contracts to the salary cap off the bat for two 30-plus-year-olds. Instead, Compher can slot in behind Knight on the depth chart to start and then eventually take over as the leading winger on this team. Bilka is a rising star to build around too, which gives this team a strong outlook in the near future and in the long term. After watching the Frost win their second straight championship, we are taking notes on what made them successful. One of the standouts? A deep, skilled blue line. That's why Seattle pursued Jaques, but ultimately lost the bidding war. But this team still has a true number one to build around in Cayla Barnes. Behind that defense will be Corinne Schroeder, who can be a backbone in net for her team. The expansion draft Round 1 Seattle: Danielle Serdachny, 24, forward (Ottawa Charge) Goldman: As modest as Serdachny's rookie season was in Ottawa, it was just a small glimpse into her star-caliber ceiling. The biggest issue with her first PWHL season was her usage — someone with game-breaking potential should be given the ice time to thrive. That's what she is going to get in Seattle at the top of the lineup. Serdachny will have a lot of offensive support to develop her game here, between Knight, Bilka, Compher and Barnes around her. She will grow into a franchise cornerstone that will help Seattle make the playoffs in Year 1 and for the foreseeable future. Advertisement Vancouver: Alex Carpenter, 31, forward (New York Sirens) Salvian: The PWHL has made it so expansion teams can compete in Year 1, which is why a player like Carpenter is available at all throughout this process. And if Seattle wants to keep an eye on the future, I'm going to focus on winning the Walter Cup in 2026 and take one of the very best forwards in the league. New York finished last in the league two straight years, but it wasn't her fault. Carpenter scored 19 goals and 43 points in 50 career games, the most among any available player in the draft. Round 2 Seattle: Savannah Harmon, 29, defense (Toronto Sceptres) Goldman: The balance here is that every team has to draft for skill and for need. Harmon accomplishes both. The 2024-25 season wasn't her strongest in Toronto, but Seattle is the perfect place for a rebound. Harmon has experience playing with Barnes and solidifies the top pair into a two-way threat that can go head-to-head with the best in the league. Advertisement Vancouver: Julia Gosling, 24, forward (Toronto Sceptres) Salvian: Gosling was Toronto's best forward in the postseason, scoring three goals in four games. She has pro size (5-foot-10) and should develop into a solid power forward. With Nurse and Carpenter in their 30s, Gosling also gives me another young core forward along with Gardiner. Round 3 Seattle: Maureen Murphy, 25, forward (Montreal Victoire) Goldman: Over the last couple of seasons in Montreal, Murphy has emerged as a real difference-maker. She can keep up and complement top players on the first line or play a supporting role on the third. That versatility gives a new team like Seattle options in the early goings. Unlike the six established teams, everything here is being built from scratch — including chemistry. That's why it helps to have character players like Murphy, and options to choose from to find the best matches up and down the lineup. Advertisement Vancouver: Anna Wilgren, 25, defense (Montreal Victoire) Salvian: With two offensive-minded defenders, I wanted to grab someone who played with a bit more focus on the defensive side of the puck. I had Megan Carter highlighted on my draft board, but she's no longer available with Toronto losing four players early into the process. Still, I'm happy with Wilgren. She's smart in the defensive zone and was second in blocked shots (57) in the PWHL as a rookie. She has proved to be a steady partner beside a more offensively gifted defender — like she was beside Cayla Barnes in Montreal — which could make her a great fit beside Jaques or Thompson. Round 4 Seattle: Daniela Pejšová, 22, defense (Boston Fleet) Goldman: Pejšová isn't an offensive game-breaker, but she provides balance to the blue line that Seattle needs with her two-way ability. She grew familiar with the speed and skill of the league around her in Year 1 with Boston, after excelling in the SDHL and with the Czech national team; now she can build on that in new surroundings. Her size and physicality give this new club an edge that's needed in this league, while her skating and shot will help facilitate plays from the back end. Advertisement Vancouver: Gabbie Hughes, 25, forward (Ottawa Charge) Salvian: With elite forward talent and some young complementary pieces, it's time to find someone who can anchor the middle six. To me, there's nobody better than Gabbie Hughes. She's a 200-foot center who can contribute on both sides of the puck. Hughes was among Ottawa's top scorers in her first two PWHL seasons (14 goals and 28 points in 53 games), but she was also one of the Charge's most reliable shutdown centers. In the first round of the PWHL playoffs, her line helped keep Montreal captain Marie-Philip Poulin largely off the scoresheet. Round 5 Seattle: Aneta Tejralová, 29, defense (Ottawa Charge) Goldman: The third pair can be addressed in free agency, but it was important to build a top four on defense through the draft. Tejralová absolutely helps solidify the group. She can absorb a lot of minutes, be deployed in any situation, and has been asked to shoulder tough minutes. Her play this year could have earned her a nod for Defender of the Year, even though her scoring didn't stack up to some of the league's best. Tejralová also has experience playing with Harmon in Ottawa, which gives the coaches more options to mix and match on defense for the best possible combinations. Advertisement Vancouver: Brooke McQuigge, 24, forward (Minnesota Frost) Salvian: McQuigge was one of my favorite players in the 2024 entry draft. She plays a physical, hard-nosed game with a clear, transferable identity, which has made McQuigge a solid contributing depth forward. McQuigge finished fourth in rookie scoring and her eight goals ranked third, behind only New York star Sarah Fillier (13) and teammate Britta Curl-Salemme (9). That her contract is likely cheaper than other top available players like Curl-Salemme or Kelly Pannek makes her the perfect late-round selection. Round 6 Seattle: Sophie Shirley, 25, forward (Boston Fleet) Goldman: With a top-four defense in place, it's time to shift the focus back to the forwards. Shirley's developed into an all-around threat over the last couple of seasons. She has the chops to bring reliable depth scoring, but has improved her defensive play as well. Shirley has become a utility player who gives this team more lineup flexibility. And at 25 years old, she is only just entering the prime of her career, and should keep growing from here. Advertisement Vancouver: Allyson Simpson, 24, Defense (New York Sirens) Salvian: I've kicked the defense can down the road long enough, and only players from New York and Minnesota are available at this point. That realistically left me with a choice between two fairly comparable defenders in Simpson and Jaime Bourbonnais. They're both on the bubble of their respective national teams, with solid offensive instincts. Simpson is a touch younger than Bourbonnais (26) and might have a slightly higher ceiling, at least on the defensive side of the puck. Simpson is also likely cheaper, which helps the bottom line. Round 7 Seattle: Dominique Petrie, 24, forward (Minnesota Frost) Goldman: Between Shirley, Tejralová and Pejšová, I found enough physicality to help complement all the skill at the top of the lineup. Seattle should be able to play an up-tempo game while being tough to match up against. But one thing is missing: extra support down the middle. That's what Petrie brings with her two-way game. The power forward was clearly missed by Minnesota when she missed time this year, but she returned just in time to become a champion. Advertisement Vancouver: Kayle Osborne, 23, goalie (New York Sirens) Salvian: This is the first time I was truly stumped. I wanted Petrie in this slot and was hoping Shayna might grab Bourbonnais or Abby Roque from New York. Taking a second goalie wasn't part of my plan, but Osborne is young, played well in her rookie season (2.22 goals-against average and a .916 save percentage) and definitely makes less money than Roque and Bourbonnais. With big-ticket players such as Nurse and Carpenter on the books, I just can't afford to go there. Osborne feels like the best player at the best price available, and now I can focus my free agency energy on shoring up my team's depth at forward and defense. The final rosters Vancouver (Salvian): This is a team that could win the Walter Cup next season, which is exactly what I set out to do. I have superstars at the top of the lineup, role players and strong goaltending. I'll try to grab some more offense in free agency (Michela Cava tops the list) and the entry draft, but this roster is well on its way to competing in 2025-26. Advertisement Seattle (Goldman): There is still work to do in free agency. I need to find more help up front and bolster this blue line (with Maggie Flaherty high up on my list). Plus, Schroeder needs a partner in net. But between the signing period and the expansion draft, this team has the makings of a playoff team in 2026. But more importantly, this is a group of players who can all grow with Seattle to make this team a perennial contender. Who got taken This article originally appeared in The Athletic. NHL, Women's Hockey 2025 The Athletic Media Company
New York Times
5 days ago
- Business
- New York Times
PWHL expansion mock draft: The Athletic plays GM and picks players for Vancouver and Seattle
The Professional Women's Hockey League has revealed which players will be protected in the league's first-ever expansion draft. Now it's time for us to put our GM hats on. For the next five days, Seattle and Vancouver will be able to sign players — either free agents or those who went unprotected — ahead of the June 9 expansion draft. Before that officially begins, however, The Athletic's Hailey Salvian and Shayna Goldman will be building their own rosters to simulate how the PWHL's expansion draft process could go if they were decision-makers. Advertisement Some ground rules: The real PWHL expansion teams are permitted to sign up to five players during the signing window, and will make at least seven draft selections to get to a roster of 12 players. Only players signed through 2025-26, or whose rights remain with a team, can be protected. A refresher on who was protected and who might be available can be found here. After each team loses two players, in either the signing window or the draft, they will be permitted to protect one additional player. We will project who those players might be as part of the process. The league has yet to announce the expansion draft order, so we did a random selection, which Seattle won. While we will follow the league's rules, this is not meant to be a projection or even speculation on what could happen in the draft. These are the decisions we would make if we were building our own expansion teams. As The Athletic reported Tuesday, the PWHL Players Association voted to disclose salaries, but we don't have access to those figures just yet so the signing window — and more generally constructing teams that will be cap compliant — is not a perfect science. This exercise is more about fun, and the friends we make (or lose) along the way. Let's begin. Vancouver (Salvian): This is a near-perfect start for the Vancouver franchise, if I do say so myself. The organization leaves the signing window with a star forward, two elite defenders, a local cornerstone and a starting goalie. Toronto not protecting Sarah Nurse gives me the chance to sign one of the most marketable women's hockey players in the world to a brand-new franchise. Not to mention, she was second in league scoring last season and was nearly a point-per-game player before getting injured this season. Jennifer Gardiner, from Surrey, B.C., is well-rounded and can easily be a top-line piece beside Nurse, or become a middle-six depth player depending on who we draft. Emerance Maschmeyer is a reliable No. 1 goalie and an easy fit for Vancouver. Advertisement Stealing both Sophie Jaques and Claire Thompson away from Minnesota was the toughest part of this window, with Shayna in Seattle also trying to lock them in. The selling point for each — given they'd both be drafted if they went unsigned — was to play in a major Canadian market. For Thompson specifically, joining Vancouver gives her the option to play professionally in her home country before returning to medical school. I'm OK with using one of these slots for potentially just one year of Thompson, too. Seattle (Goldman): The idea of the signing window? Find franchise cornerstones to build around. That starts with Knight, one of the greatest hockey players of all time. After a tough first year in Boston, she showed what she still has left in the tank this past season. But the harsh reality is that while Knight will help usher in this new era of hockey in Seattle, longevity is another factor to consider. That's what inspired the Jesse Compher and Hannah Bilka signings, even with Alex Carpenter available. Carpenter is 31 years old and still has a lot of hockey left to play. But there's something about adding two expensive contracts to the salary cap off the bat for two 30-plus-year-olds. Instead, Compher can slot in behind Knight on the depth chart to start and then eventually take over as the leading winger on this team. Bilka is a rising star to build around too, which gives this team a strong outlook in the near future and in the long term. After watching the Frost win their second straight championship, we are taking notes on what made them successful. One of the standouts? A deep, skilled blue line. That's why Seattle pursued Jaques, but ultimately lost the bidding war. But this team still has a true number one to build around in Cayla Barnes. Behind that defense will be Corinne Schroeder, who can be a backbone in net for her team. Note: With two players taken from several teams during the signing window, we've projected who each team might protect with the extra fourth slot. • Toronto protects forward Emma Maltais • Montreal protects defender Erin Ambrose • Boston protects forward Shay Maloney • Minnesota protects forward Grace Zumwinkle Advertisement Seattle: Danielle Serdachny, 24, forward (Ottawa Charge) Goldman: As modest as Serdachny's rookie season was in Ottawa, it was just a small glimpse into her star-caliber ceiling. The biggest issue with her first PWHL season was her usage — someone with game-breaking potential should be given the ice time to thrive. That's what she is going to get in Seattle at the top of the lineup. Serdachny will have a lot of offensive support to develop her game here, between Knight, Bilka, Compher and Barnes around her. She will grow into a franchise cornerstone that will help Seattle make the playoffs in Year 1 and for the foreseeable future. * Ottawa protects defender Ashton Bell * Vancouver: Alex Carpenter, 31, forward (New York Sirens) Salvian: The PWHL has made it so expansion teams can compete in Year 1, which is why a player like Carpenter is available at all throughout this process. And if Seattle wants to keep an eye on the future, I'm going to focus on winning the Walter Cup in 2026 and take one of the very best forwards in the league. New York finished last in the league two straight years, but it wasn't her fault. Carpenter scored 19 goals and 43 points in 50 career games, the most among any available player in the draft. *New York protects forward Jessie Eldridge * Seattle: Savannah Harmon, 29, defense (Toronto Sceptres) Goldman: The balance here is that every team has to draft for skill and for need. Harmon accomplishes both. The 2024-25 season wasn't her strongest in Toronto, but Seattle is the perfect place for a rebound. Harmon has experience playing with Barnes and solidifies the top pair into a two-way threat that can go head-to-head with the best in the league. Vancouver: Julia Gosling, 24, forward (Toronto Sceptres) Salvian: Gosling was Toronto's best forward in the postseason, scoring three goals in four games. She has pro size (5-foot-10) and should develop into a solid power forward. With Nurse and Carpenter in their 30s, Gosling also gives me another young core forward along with Gardiner. Advertisement Seattle: Maureen Murphy, 25, forward (Montreal Victoire) Goldman: Over the last couple of seasons in Montreal, Murphy has emerged as a real difference-maker. She can keep up and complement top players on the first line or play a supporting role on the third. That versatility gives a new team like Seattle options in the early goings. Unlike the six established teams, everything here is being built from scratch — including chemistry. That's why it helps to have character players like Murphy, and options to choose from to find the best matches up and down the lineup. Vancouver: Anna Wilgren, 25, defense (Montreal Victoire) Salvian: With two offensive-minded defenders, I wanted to grab someone who played with a bit more focus on the defensive side of the puck. I had Megan Carter highlighted on my draft board, but she's no longer available with Toronto losing four players early into the process. Still, I'm happy with Wilgren. She's smart in the defensive zone and was second in blocked shots (57) in the PWHL as a rookie. She has proved to be a steady partner beside a more offensively gifted defender — like she was beside Cayla Barnes in Montreal — which could make her a great fit beside Jaques or Thompson. Seattle: Daniela Pejšová, 22, defense (Boston Fleet) Goldman: Pejšová isn't an offensive game-breaker, but she provides balance to the blue line that Seattle needs with her two-way ability. She grew familiar with the speed and skill of the league around her in Year 1 with Boston, after excelling in the SDHL and with the Czech national team; now she can build on that in new surroundings. Her size and physicality give this new club an edge that's needed in this league, while her skating and shot will help facilitate plays from the back end. Vancouver: Gabbie Hughes, 25, forward (Ottawa Charge) Salvian: With elite forward talent and some young complementary pieces, it's time to find someone who can anchor the middle six. To me, there's nobody better than Gabbie Hughes. She's a 200-foot center who can contribute on both sides of the puck. Hughes was among Ottawa's top scorers in her first two PWHL seasons (14 goals and 28 points in 53 games), but she was also one of the Charge's most reliable shutdown centers. In the first round of the PWHL playoffs, her line helped keep Montreal captain Marie-Philip Poulin largely off the scoresheet. Seattle: Aneta Tejralová, 29, defense (Ottawa Charge) Goldman: The third pair can be addressed in free agency, but it was important to build a top four on defense through the draft. Tejralová absolutely helps solidify the group. She can absorb a lot of minutes, be deployed in any situation, and has been asked to shoulder tough minutes. Her play this year could have earned her a nod for Defender of the Year, even though her scoring didn't stack up to some of the league's best. Tejralová also has experience playing with Harmon in Ottawa, which gives the coaches more options to mix and match on defense for the best possible combinations. Advertisement Vancouver: Brooke McQuigge, 24, forward (Minnesota Frost) Salvian: McQuigge was one of my favorite players in the 2024 entry draft. She plays a physical, hard-nosed game with a clear, transferable identity, which has made McQuigge a solid contributing depth forward. McQuigge finished fourth in rookie scoring and her eight goals ranked third, behind only New York star Sarah Fillier (13) and teammate Britta Curl-Salemme (9). That her contract is likely cheaper than other top available players like Curl-Salemme or Kelly Pannek makes her the perfect late-round selection. Seattle: Sophie Shirley, 25, forward (Boston Fleet) Goldman: With a top-four defense in place, it's time to shift the focus back to the forwards. Shirley's developed into an all-around threat over the last couple of seasons. She has the chops to bring reliable depth scoring, but has improved her defensive play as well. Shirley has become a utility player who gives this team more lineup flexibility. And at 25 years old, she is only just entering the prime of her career, and should keep growing from here. Vancouver: Allyson Simpson, 24, Defense (New York Sirens) Salvian: I've kicked the defense can down the road long enough, and only players from New York and Minnesota are available at this point. That realistically left me with a choice between two fairly comparable defenders in Simpson and Jaime Bourbonnais. They're both on the bubble of their respective national teams, with solid offensive instincts. Simpson is a touch younger than Bourbonnais (26) and might have a slightly higher ceiling, at least on the defensive side of the puck. Simpson is also likely cheaper, which helps the bottom line. Seattle: Dominique Petrie, 24, forward (Minnesota Frost) Goldman: Between Shirley, Tejralová and Pejšová, I found enough physicality to help complement all the skill at the top of the lineup. Seattle should be able to play an up-tempo game while being tough to match up against. But one thing is missing: extra support down the middle. That's what Petrie brings with her two-way game. The power forward was clearly missed by Minnesota when she missed time this year, but she returned just in time to become a champion. Vancouver: Kayle Osborne, 23, goalie (New York Sirens) Salvian: This is the first time I was truly stumped. I wanted Petrie in this slot and was hoping Shayna might grab Bourbonnais or Abby Roque from New York. Taking a second goalie wasn't part of my plan, but Osborne is young, played well in her rookie season (2.22 goals-against average and a .916 save percentage) and definitely makes less money than Roque and Bourbonnais. With big-ticket players such as Nurse and Carpenter on the books, I just can't afford to go there. Osborne feels like the best player at the best price available, and now I can focus my free agency energy on shoring up my team's depth at forward and defense. Vancouver (Salvian): This is a team that could win the Walter Cup next season, which is exactly what I set out to do. I have superstars at the top of the lineup, role players and strong goaltending. I'll try to grab some more offense in free agency (Michela Cava tops the list) and the entry draft, but this roster is well on its way to competing in 2025-26. Seattle (Goldman): There is still work to do in free agency. I need to find more help up front and bolster this blue line (with Maggie Flaherty high up on my list). Plus, Schroeder needs a partner in net. But between the signing period and the expansion draft, this team has the makings of a playoff team in 2026. But more importantly, this is a group of players who can all grow with Seattle to make this team a perennial contender. (Top photo of Hilary Knight and Sarah Nurse: Troy Parla and Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
New York Times
20-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
2025 NHL Eastern Conference final preview: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers
By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille If not for a pesky New York Rangers second-round win last season (which, if we're being honest, looks a little fortunate in hindsight after their 2025 downfall), this would've been the third straight year that the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers meet in the Eastern Conference final. Advertisement Carolina is the class of the Metropolitan. Florida is the class of the Atlantic. The East goes through them. More specifically, it goes through the Panthers, who are looking to make their third straight Stanley Cup Final. Can the Hurricanes stop them? It'll be tight. At least, it should be. When these two teams faced off two years ago, it was tight — with every game being decided by a single goal and some with many overtimes. It's just that every time, the coin flipped Panthers. Sometimes hockey is like that, where a series that should be tight ends up anything but. It's possible there's something within the Panthers locker room that makes them innate winners, able to get a consistent coin-flip edge. This version of the Panthers looks the scariest yet, and that added killer instinct makes them feel like an impossible out. They're favorites for a reason. The beauty of this series is that the Hurricanes will have a shot at redemption, a chance to show they're just as worthy. On paper, with the help of home ice, they're not far off thanks to a deep team that executes a strong defensive structure. In practice, they'll have to earn every inch to prove that. The Eastern Conference final is a matchup of two of the best five-on-five teams in the league. The Corsi Canes' identity holds strong, as this team generates a ton of shots on a nightly basis. The shot volume and quality are there, but the scoresheet doesn't always reflect it. That was true in the regular season and continues in the playoffs, with the team creating 3.09 xGF/60 but only 2.16 GF/60 to show for it. The Panthers were in a similar boat in the regular season, but are converting at a higher rate so far through two rounds with 3.20 GF/60, one of the best rates of the postseason. The real question is whose offense makes it through their opponents' defense, where there is the narrowest of gaps between these two teams. Advertisement The Canes' shot suppression was elite in the regular season, but their expected and actual goals against were only average. The latter has changed in the playoffs, with Frederik Andersen standing tall in goal. The Panthers were one of the stingiest regular-season teams, allowing only 2.27 xGA/60 and even fewer goals against. That stout defense has stood out through two rounds, but the goaltending hasn't been as sparkling. The defensive battle extends to the penalty kill between two of the best short-handed teams. Florida limits its opponents' time and space, while the Canes have a more disruptive approach. If that neutralizes both teams' power plays, then five-on-five scoring will be all the more important in this series. How big is Florida's star-power edge? In a rare change of pace, the Hurricanes had the edge in star power at the top of the lineup in Round 2: Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho were the two best players in the series against the Washington Capitals. But that doesn't project to be the case in the Eastern Conference final. The Panthers aren't a team of aging stars and up-and-comers, like the Caps. The reigning champs have a deep lineup of stars that can match up with some of the best in the league. Up front, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Matthew Tkachuk combine to a projected Net Rating of plus-46. The Hurricanes' top forwards — Aho, Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov — on the other hand, add up to plus-29. On paper, that edge looks substantial. But the game isn't just played on paper. The model is harsh on players like Svechnikov, who didn't have the best regular season. His 2.34 points per 60 in the regular season was fine, but nothing game-breaking. Below the surface, his five-on-five impacts underwhelmed relative to the rest of the team. And this time, there isn't someone like Jake Guentzel to jump over him in the depth chart and provide that extra oomph in the playoffs. Advertisement But unlike last year, the Canes don't need someone from the outside to give them a boost of star power. Svechnikov is proving he can be The Guy for Carolina. Not only is he scoring at a higher pace with 2.98 points per 60 in 10 games, but it's also how he's putting up points. He is playing to his strengths as someone who can create a lot of dangerous chances and convert on them at an impressive rate. For a team that always needs more finish, Svechnikov is bringing it with 2.65 goals per 60, which leads all skaters this postseason. Between Svechnikov's star-caliber playoff performance and Jarvis' and Aho's two-way play, the Canes' top forwards are pacing a combined plus-42 Net Rating. And that's equal to the Panthers' current pace. Barkov and Reinhart have had a fine postseason so far, but neither has dominated their minutes through two rounds. And even more noticeable is that Tkachuk hasn't reached his usual playoff ceiling just yet. Injuries could be a factor here, considering Tkachuk missed all regular-season play after the 4 Nations Face-Off. As much as he shone in big moments against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1, he wasn't as impactful against the Toronto Maple Leafs in Round 2. The Panthers were the better team in his minutes below the surface, with a 58 percent expected goal rate, but he only tallied four assists in seven games — two at even strength, two on the power play. If Aho and Jarvis can match Barkov and Reinhart's impact, the series could come down to whether Svechnikov can surpass Tkachuk. That didn't seem possible when the playoffs began, but it is now through two rounds of play. That could be the key to a Canes series win. As much as two rounds of playoff action matter, history is still on Florida's side. The Panthers have shown exactly what they're capable of in two consecutive trips to the Cup Final. That makes them the safer bet on paper, but the matchup is much closer than it looks. Advertisement Can Frederik Andersen stay hot? Andersen's always been somewhat of a wild card — not because of his skill, but because of his durability. When he is healthy enough to play, he can be a real difference-maker. That's been a theme throughout his career. Just look at his last few seasons with the Hurricanes: injuries limited him to 22 regular-season appearances this year, 16 last year and 34 the year before. He even missed Game 5 of Round 1 a few weeks ago after a collision with Timo Meier. A goalie can't help bad injury luck, but can work to be the best version of themself when healthy, and Andersen has done that this year. He saved 15.8 goals above expected in 16 games and has raised his level in the playoffs. Andersen has given his team a chance to win with a quality start in eight of nine games, which adds up to a GSAx of 15, leading all goalies this spring. Can he keep it up? The Hurricanes usually don't need a game-breaker in net; they need someone who can come up with timely saves when chances sneak past their defense. Andersen has delivered that through two rounds against easier competition. But the Panthers are a different animal, so this will be a real test for the Canes' back end. In theory, the Panthers have a sizable edge at the top of the lineup. Barkov, Reinhart and Tkachuk are the best players in this series — a matchup problem the likes of which the Hurricanes have yet to face in these playoffs. The New Jersey Devils only had Nico Hischier to worry about, and the Hurricanes had the star-power edge against the Capitals. Against Florida, it's a different ballgame. As good as Aho, Jarvis and Svechnikov have been, this series will be a challenge. In practice, though, the Hurricanes could have a bigger problem: Florida's depth. Usually, that's Carolina's biggest advantage, especially on home ice. The Hurricanes' top line is generally good enough to win their matchups or at least keep things close against top-heavy teams, but it's the second, third and fourth lines where Carolina's real edge shines. That may prove much more difficult in this series. Advertisement It wasn't the Panthers' top guys that beat the Lightning or Maple Leafs — it was the totality of a relentless top nine that sent wave after wave of pressure. And it was primarily a third line anchored by deadline-day acquisition Brad Marchand and aided by Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen that has been a matchup nightmare so far. Without any of those three on the ice against Tampa Bay or Toronto, the scoreline was almost even (16-15) through two rounds at five-on-five. When they're on the ice, though, the Panthers are up 10-2. That's been the difference. The Hurricanes are significantly more equipped to handle that task than the Lightning or Leafs, two top-heavy teams. They control play better and have needle-movers through all four lines, so it's unlikely Marchand and company will feast to the same degree here. But the likelihood that Florida still wins that matchup anyway is bad math for Carolina, which normally has a stranglehold further down the lineup. Usually, the depth can make up for whatever top-of-the-lineup inefficiencies Carolina has. Here? It's a lot trickier. In that sense, the Hurricanes will need a lot more out of Jordan Staal. The veteran shutdown center is still projected to be one of the league's best defensive forwards, but he hasn't delivered on that promise in these playoffs yet. His 39 percent goal rate is a team-worst, and with 2.84 xGA/60, he's not even limiting chances against. Staal still takes on the toughest matchups for the Hurricanes and will have his work cut out for him here. It's not all on him, but he serves as a strong starting point. If Staal can be his Selke self, the Hurricanes have a shot. The version we've seen in the playoffs so far won't cut it. No matter how you slice it — player by player, line by line or as a whole — Florida's forwards are just better. Based on that alone, this series probably feels like a mismatch. And we didn't even mention Carter Verhaeghe or Sam Bennett yet, either, two guys known to deliver when it matters most. The Panthers are loaded with weapons up front. Carolina makes up ground with an extremely deep back end and a potential edge between the pipes. As loaded as the Panthers are offensively, they'll face their toughest defensive challenge yet in Carolina. That's led by Jaccob Slavin, one of the league's absolute best two-way defenders. He's a premier shutdown threat who doesn't sacrifice offense to get there, even if he doesn't put up points. Brent Burns has been a suitable partner for him despite his age and the pair has heavily outscored their opponents so far while playing the toughest minutes. Advertisement Beyond them the Hurricanes have no holes. The second pair of Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield is solid in both directions, while Shayne Gostisbehere delivers some offensive punch in a sheltered role. Sean Walker has been shockingly excellent in these playoffs, too. While the Panthers can more than match the top of that group with the likes of Gustav Forsling, Seth Jones and Aaron Ekblad, the blue line thins out a bit after them. As solid as the trifecta of Niko Mikkola, Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Kulikov are defensively, they all lack offensive dimension. The X-factor with Florida's blue line is Seth Jones, who has been a defensive beast in these playoffs. The Panthers have allowed just 1.8 xGA/60 and GA/60 with Jones on the ice, both of which are right up there with the team's best. His plus-2.3 Defensive Rating leads the playoffs, a strong statement of what Jones is capable of in the right situation. He may not have provided the expected offensive jolt, especially on the power play, but he has solidified Florida's blue line. All of that could be moot if Andersen stays hot, and that's where the Panthers will need a dialed-in Sergei Bobrovsky to bring it home. Two years ago, Bobrovsky was near perfect against Carolina allowing just six goals over four games thanks to a .966 save percentage where Bobrovsky saved a mind-boggling 12.8 goals above expected. The Panthers won't need that same level of play to get by, but they will need Bobrovsky at his best against Carolina's barrage of shots. That was a shaky bet halfway through the series against Toronto, but the fact he started to round into form could be a scary sign for Carolina. Going into Game 4, Bobrovsky had a below-average GSAx rate in six of eight games leading to an .875 save percentage and 3.7 goals allowed above expected — the third-worst mark in the playoffs. In the four games since, he had a .957 and saved 8.2 goals above expected. He looks locked in and the Hurricanes look designed to feed into that. Advertisement The Hurricanes have the talent to make this close, but they'll have to prove themselves against the defending champs who simply have a little bit more. Jaccob Slavin vs. Gustav Forsling Ask any hockey person who the best defenders in the world are and you'll likely get two of the same guys mentioned a lot: Slavin and Forsling. They're the new blueprint for shutdown excellence. Slavin and Forsling are rocks for their respective teams, the rare No. 1 defenseman whose primary focus is their defensive game rather than dynamic offense — though not sacrificing offense in the name of defense is part of the key. Perhaps there's a lesson there for teams angling to go as deep as these two teams routinely do. One of those lessons is what good defense looks like. With Slavin and Forsling, it's smarts more than snarl. It's moving the puck more than staying at home. It's playing the puck more than laying the body. More than anything, it's about finding the perfect balance between safe and aggressive, picking spots and snuffing out danger before there's even a threat of it. Proactive instead of reactive. The two are a major catalyst for their teams reaching the conference finals yet again. Now they battle for defensive supremacy to see who gets to go further. The Hurricanes are more than good enough to win this series with plenty of attention to detail around the margins. Andersen at his best could be enough to put them over the top. But they'll need the bulk of the lineup, the most important players, to step up in order to counter Florida's best. That's a tall order given how Florida has played so far — no matter how close it looks on paper. References How these projections work Understanding projection uncertainty Resources Evolving Hockey Natural Stat Trick Hockey-Reference NHL All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder (Photo of Brent Burns and Aleksander Barkov: Rich Storry / Imagn Images)
New York Times
20-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NHL playoff predictions 2025: Conference final winners, Stanley Cup champion and MVP
By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff The NHL's final four is set. The Florida Panthers continue their quest to win a second straight Stanley Cup on Tuesday night as they open the Eastern Conference final against the Carolina Hurricanes, and Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers kick off the Western Conference final on Wednesday night against the Dallas Stars for a second straight spring. Advertisement The Stars opened the second round as The Athletic NHL staff's favorite to win the Cup. Are they still our top pick? And who do we see taking the East after our pre-playoff pick — the Tampa Bay Lightning — got eliminated? What about Conn Smythe favorites? Here are the results of our staff survey after the second round, with analysis and critique from senior writers Sean Gentille and Mark Lazerus, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger. Figures are rounded. Gentille: The Panthers are the defending champs, so I get why there's a gap … but they were also just pushed to the brink by the Toronto Maple Leafs. How good could they really be? (This is half a joke.) Goldman: Just like Leafs-Panthers, this is going to be a closer series than it was in 2023. The Canes are a better team, but so are the Panthers … who just so happen to be the reigning champs. It makes sense that they have the edge in voting, but at least we all think this one is going deep. Lazerus: As good as the Canes have been for the last several years, they haven't won a single conference final game in this era, having been swept by the Bruins in 2019 and by the Panthers in 2023. None of us expects that to happen again. But Carolina, relentless and impressive as it is, still can't measure up to the Panthers in terms of high-end finishers and goaltending. Granger: For once, I think Carolina actually does measure up well in the goaltending department. Frederik Andersen has been the best goalie in the postseason, and he's been exceptional on shots from right in front of the net (Florida's specialty). Given his history and the Panthers' tendency to be … physical … with the opposing netminder, it's a big 'if,' but if Andersen stays healthy, I like Carolina a lot in this one. Gentille: I like Dallas in this one, but a 54.8 percent edge seems high. Edmonton made pretty light work of the Golden Knights. It might be a case of 'out of sight, out of mind' for our voters. Goldman: I think it's been pretty easy to talk yourself out of the Oilers each round — it was the best version of the Kings, the Golden Knights are filled with shutdown talent, and the Stars are one of the deepest teams now that they're actually healthy. But Edmonton has come to play this postseason, and there are only four games separating them from a return to the Final. Advertisement Lazerus: While I went with Dallas, too, I'm a little shocked by this disparity. The Oilers have two very impressive series victories so far in this postseason and have reminded everyone why they were the trendiest Stanley Cup pick back in October. But there's just no world in which I can bet on Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard against Jake Oettinger. This is the spring in which Oettinger finally gets recognized as one of the game's truly great goaltenders. Granger: What a heavyweight bout this is to crown the best in the West. Not only is it a rematch of last year's conference final, but at least one of these two teams has played in this series in five of the last six seasons. Gentille: More proof that I jumped off the Stars bandwagon at the absolute wrong time. Also, Western Conference bias is clearly in effect. Goldman: It actually surprises me that voting for the Panthers is down after Round 2 — sure, it took them seven games, but look at how they dominated Game 7. Lazerus: I guess it comes down to whether you think it's a positive thing that Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson, Tyler Seguin and several others have not been producing at all in the playoffs (they're due!) or if you think it's a negative thing (Mikko Rantanen can't do it all himself against a team that scores at will like Edmonton!). Y'all believe. (I can say 'y'all' now, because I basically live in Texas now.) Granger: The Stars certainly feel like the most well-rounded team. They have the star power up front (with Rantanen delivering in a big way). The blue line is dangerous with Miro Heiskanen back in the fold and Thomas Harley currently second in the playoffs for points by a defenseman. Oettinger is rock solid in net. It's really hard to find a reason this team loses outside of 'Pete DeBoer has come close so many times and never won a Cup.' Maybe this is Pete's year. Gentille: The most impactful player and leading scorer is the overall favorite. No need to get cute here. Andersen is a decent dark horse, though. Zero Hurricanes skaters getting a vote is kind of wild, too. Goldman: I get the Andersen hype; he has earned it, but I think Andrei Svechnikov and Jaccob Slavin should be in the mix for the Canes. And if the Panthers claw their way to the top again, Brad Marchand probably is high up on that list. Advertisement Lazerus: Don't sleep on Oettinger here. Rantanen has one point in his last three games and one goal in his last five. That run he had was spectacular, but Oettinger was the key to the Winnipeg series, and he's been far and away the most consistent Stars player. Granger: I'm loving all of this goalie discussion for Conn Smythe, considering how this postseason has gone for the vast majority of netminders. With the league average save percentage sitting at a cool .898 in these playoffs, Oettinger and Andersen have more than earned the hype with their steady play. Here's how our first- and second-round predictions held up, with the actual result of the series, the percent of voters who picked the right team and the percent who picked the right team and number of games: (Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Jeff Bottari, Ashley Potts, Jared C. Tilton, Peter Joneleit / Getty Images)
New York Times
06-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
2025 NHL playoff preview: Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars
By Shayna Goldman, Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille It's always fun to see Stanley Cup playoff series exceed their expectations. That, somehow, is what we got from both Central Division matchups. That's saying quite a bit; when the Dallas Stars-Colorado Avalanche series began, it felt like one of the most heavily anticipated first-round series in recent memory. Elite teams. Human drama. Couldn't ask for much more, and both teams came through. The Winnipeg Jets, meanwhile, avoided disaster spectacularly behind an in-series redemption arc starring the best regular-season goalie on the planet. Tough acts to follow. We believe in them, though. The odds If odds set expectations, expect more drama in the Central. This series — between the Presidents' Trophy winners and a team many pegged as the one to beat after a massive deadline add — is about as tight as it gets. As has been common in these playoffs, where not much separates the top teams on paper, this looks close to a pick 'em. That should mean a tightly contested battle between the Jets and Stars that could go the distance. There are a lot of caveats to that analysis, more than arguably any other series in recent memory. Will Connor Hellebuyck bounce back? Has Mikko Rantanen's game returned for good after a post-trade lull? How many games will the Stars and Jets get from their currently injured star players? All questions without concrete answers (though we'll give our best guess). Those considerations make this a difficult series to peg, where a toss-up slightly shaded to the Stars feels safest. All we know is this series should be a battle. The numbers On paper, this is the closest Round 2 matchup, with just a plus-2 Net Rating separating these teams. The Jets established themselves as a defensive powerhouse this season, giving Hellebuyck more support than he has had in years. At five-on-five, Winnipeg was stingy, only giving up 2.34 xGA/60. With Hellebuyck between the pipes, the team allowed a league-low 1.72 GA/60. But a lot of that defensive zone stability slipped in Round 1. Technically, the Jets allowed a lower rate of expected goals against at 2.17 per 60, but there were more glaring slip-ups, especially on the road. Winnipeg allowed some dangerous looks off the rush and left their goaltender exposed to a lot of screened shots, which he responded to really poorly. The Stars' offense may create trouble for the Jets' back end in Round 2. Dallas' five-on-five offense was top-seven in the league in both expected and actual goal creation over the regular season. That slipped in Round 1 against the Avs, but could rebound as this group gets healthier. Defense is a potential weak point for Dallas until Heiskanen returns. That became glaring after the 4 Nations Face-Off and remained a problem in Round 1, with the team giving up 3.24 xGA/60 in seven games. The Stars' penalty kill wasn't perfect in terms of shot quality, but goaltending made up for it. The opposite was true for the Jets in Round 1; the team gave up very little but didn't always get timely saves. That's something to watch in this series, considering how high-octane the Stars' power play was against Colorado. The big question Can Connor Hellebuyck bounce back? Playoff reputations are not etched in stone. They can follow a player for years and get stickier with each new disappointment. Redemption, though, is always a possibility. Narratives can change. There is no denying that Hellebuyck, over the last three playoffs, has not been good enough. That's his narrative: He is not a big-game player, he can't handle the heat. His work against the St. Louis Blues was particularly unfathomable; it was Hellebuyck's worst series yet, with some truly unconscionable goals allowed. But the Jets are still alive. They survived one of the worst goaltending playoff performances we've ever seen, and that's a testament to the team in front of Hellebuyck. It's what's supposed to make Winnipeg different this year. It gives Hellebuyck the opportunity to change his narrative. Every new series is a chance for redemption, and no player needs it more than he does. One year removed from allowing 6.5 goals above expected in five playoff games against the Avs (or 9.1 per seven games), Hellebuyck allowed 9.8 goals above expected against the Blues — the most he has ever given up in any given seven-game sequence ever. His previous low, minus-7.6, came back in 2017. Over his last two Vezina seasons, Hellebuyck had 111 distinct seven-game sequences during the regular season. In those, Hellebuyck was below average just five times and his lowest mark is just minus-2.1 goals allowed. That's who Hellebuyck should be. Who he's been during the season and who he's been in the postseason could not be more different. What Hellebuyck offers to us is an extreme lesson in goalie volatility — and its ability to snowball to truly unbelievable places when the temperature rises. His playoff work goes well beyond general small-sample goalie wackiness. It is so extreme that it cannot be chalked up to 'stuff happens.' Stuff like this defies any ounce of logic. It should not happen. But to Hellebuyck, it has. League-best regular seasons followed up by league-worst playoffs, to these extreme degrees, is not normal. And that makes for a very tricky conundrum regarding expectations for the Jets in this series. Winnipeg's 50-50 shot against Dallas depends heavily on a Hellebuyck redemption, which does not feel like a safe bet. While the model did downgrade Winnipeg's Defensive Rating (from plus-46 to plus-39), it's clear there is a wide range of possibilities for the Jets depending on which version of Hellebuyck shows up. Hellebuyck's projected Net Rating of plus-28 is the base case, one built on regressing his last five regular seasons (with more weight on the last two), where the expectation is he saves 0.37 goals above expected per game. If he can reliably be counted on to repeat this season's 0.64 per game, Winnipeg's odds shoot up to 64 percent. If, however, Playoff Hellebuyck has another unfortunate performance and allows one goal above expected per game (his average over the last three playoffs), Winnipeg's odds would drop all the way down to 9 percent. Yes, 9 percent. More than any other team, Winnipeg's success hinges greatly on the impact of one player — a player whose current impact could not be more unpredictable and whose downside looks tremendous. That the Jets got by the Blues was miraculous. The Stars — a loaded offensive team — are a different beast. Stopping the high-flying Stars in their tracks is a great place for Hellebuyck's redemption arc to start. It's also where things can spiral further downward. It's on Hellebuyck to decide where his narrative goes next. The X-factor How will injuries shift the balance of this series? The key to winning a Central Division matchup in the opening round? Play Game 7 without one of your best forwards and No. 1 defenseman, naturally. Credit to both the Jets and Stars for pulling that off — it's no small feat. Especially given the circumstances both teams found themselves in, down by two in the third period. But pulling that off for a long stretch of time against better competition is a tall task. In this series, at least to start, the Stars and Jets are in the same boat. The point at which either team will reach shore with a healthy roster is what makes projecting it so tricky. Without firm timelines on Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey, Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen, we're left guessing on that return. What we can tell you is the worst-case scenario for each team. At full health, the Jets would be favored in this series at 52 percent due to their having home ice advantage. If Dallas starts fully healthy, Winnipeg's chances would drop to 47 percent without Scheifele, 42 percent without Morrissey and 38 percent without both. That's for the whole series, which feels unlikely. The more games Scheifele and Morrissey play, the better the outlook. On the flip side, the Stars (starting at 48 percent) are at 43 percent without Robertson, 42 percent without Heiskanen and 37 percent without both. None of that is to say neither team can manage without its stars, just that the road to the conference final becomes that much more challenging. We're expecting the Stars duo back sooner, which is what gets the series to 50-50, but even that forecast is clear as mud. Whatever happens, this series is so close that whoever returns first (and closest to 100 percent) could end up being the difference. The rosters The Stars had two primary problems heading into the playoffs. The right side of the defense was a liability without Heiskanen, and Rantanen, who they brought in to be The Guy at the top of the lineup, had yet to hit his stride, which was extra concerning with Robertson injured. Rantanen came into this year with a Net Rating of at least plus-19 in each of the last three seasons. He was around a plus-17 at the time of the first trade, with an average Game Score of 1.27, but ended the year at about a plus-10. A few things contributed to that drop-off: a lack of scoring with the Canes despite promising underlying numbers, poor play-driving in Dallas and less ice time since leaving the Avs. With the Canes, his average Game Score plummeted to 0.66; in Dallas, it was 0.70. But after an up-and-down season with a lot of change and adjustments, Rantanen came to play when it mattered most and eliminated his former team in the process. After scoring a Game 7 hat trick, he ended Round 1 with five goals and 12 points and an average Game Score of 1.37, and paced at a plus-24 Net Rating. Rantanen is finally adjusting to his surroundings in Dallas and finding chemistry on an all-Finn line with Roope Hintz and Mikael Granlund. That could be a sign he is on track to return to his pre-trade caliber. If this is the Rantanen Dallas can expect going forward — the Rantanen they paid a lot for — we're probably underestimating their chances here. Rantanen, at a plus-17 Net Rating, swings the series odds four percentage points in the Stars' favor. The Stars' forward depth gives them their biggest edge in the playoff field, which helped them weather Robertson's absence. Tyler Seguin's return reunited a productive second line with Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene, which outscored Colorado 2-1 in Round 1. After a slow start to the playoffs, Wyatt Johnston found the scoring touch that made him stand out last spring. If he can keep that up, he should help turn around a third line with Jamie Benn, who had mixed results against the Avs. Considering some of the Jets' injury woes, the matchups may not be as daunting, either — the Stars' third line got a heavy dose of Nathan MacKinnon's line in Round 1 and had to fight through those minutes with Esa Lindell and Cody Ceci on the back end. Not only does it hurt the Stars to be without Heiskanen's two-way skill, but it also forces other defensemen out of their depth. Ceci has been tasked with playing matchup minutes, and in Round 1, the team gave up an xGA/60 of 4.0 with him and Lindell on the ice at five-on-five. Oettinger stopped the bleeding and kept their actual goal rate down to 1.75 per 60, but that may not be sustainable. Heiskanen's return will help reset the Stars' defense and give Thomas Harley more top-four support, whether they are reunited or split across two pairs. But the team has to get by until then. The Jets got reinforcements back in Round 1 with the return of Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers, but Scheifele's status is uncertain. Scheifele and Connor were dynamic together to open the series. Connor, tied with Rantanen as the league leader with 12 points, comes into this series with a plus-11 Net Rating to lead the Jets forwards. But can he keep that up against the Stars without a true 1C? Connor started Game 7 with Vladislav Namestnikov, but ended up spending most of the night with Adam Lowry, whose plus-3 Defensive Rating leads all forwards in this series. Lowry doesn't thread the needle offensively, but could help Connor win his minutes against the Stars' best. Year after year, Ehlers stands out as one of the Jets' top forwards in the regular season but wilts in a playoff environment. He proved that wasn't the case in Game 7, with a gutsy lateral pass to Connor that set up Cole Perfetti's game-tying goal. It was shaky on the way there, but at the biggest moment, Ehlers delivered. After being scratched through most of last year's postseason, Perfetti is showing he can thrive in a playoff environment. He is a shooting threat and is driving to the quality areas, which helped set up both of his Game 7 goals. With Ehlers and Namestnikov, the Jets' second line earned a 54 percent expected goal rate and outscored opponents 24-14 in the regular season — that's the kind of production, at minimum, this team needs to counter the Stars' middle six. As long as Lowry stays with Connor, the third line won't be as defensively sound. But if Sunday's in-game tweaks hold, Vilardi could make it more of a scoring threat. On the back end, the Jets must also prepare to play without Morrissey, whose status is uncertain. In Game 7, Dylan DeMelo spent a lot of time with shutdown defenseman Dylan Samberg, and the two were lights-out in 10:37 five-on-five minutes. The Jets attempted 15 shots, limited the Blues to two against and earned 94 percent of expected goals. But that likely leaves the team's defense too top-heavy against a deep opponent. Samberg and Neal Pionk, who take on top competition, become the de facto top pair without Morrissey. But the bottom-four configuration is tricky, considering how much the third pair already burned the Jets in Round 1. Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn were crushed in their third pair minutes against the Blues; St. Louis earned a 60 percent expected goal rate in their minutes and outscored the Jets 4-1. Haydn Fleury can help there and looked composed in Game 7, but he's no savior — the third pair is still a point of weakness that can be exploited. Against a Stars team with a loaded top nine, it gets even dicier and creates even more problems for a shaky Hellebuyck between the pipes. The key matchup Connor Hellebuyck vs. Jake Oettinger At some point last week, when Hellebuyck and the Jets were at their low point, it felt like we were getting an early referendum on Team USA's starting goaltender at the 2026 Olympics. How could you go with Hellebuyck in a high-stakes environment over Oettinger, who was in the process of adding to his (already impressive) case for No. 1? Now, thanks to his final four periods or so in Game 7, Hellebuyck has re-entered the conversation. Oettinger's reputation doesn't need that level of rebuilding, though. In his last four postseasons, he 1) had one of the best series by a goaltender in recent history, against Calgary in 2022; 2) led Dallas to consecutive conference finals in 2023 and 2024, though he was certainly better the second time around; and 3) got them out of a series in which they missed their No. 1 defenseman and All-Star winger. Oetttinger didn't allow a third-period goal against the Avs until Game 6, then shut Colorado down for the final 19:29 of Game 7, a stretch in which Dallas took the score from 2-0 to 4-2. That's big-game, resume-building stuff, and Oettinger now has the opportunity for even more of the same. The bottom line Between key injuries and Hellebuyck's playoff demons, the deck is stacked against the Jets right now. Winnipeg's star power is lacking, while the Stars are just heating up. But these teams are more than what they did in Round 1. The Central Division has been a battle all season long, and this series will likely be no different. References How these projections work Understanding projection uncertainty Resources Evolving Hockey Natural Stat Trick Hockey Reference NHL All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder (Photo of Jake Oettinger and Connor Hellebuyck: Matthew Stockman and Cameron Bartlett / Getty Images)
