What's behind Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck's playoff struggles?

New York Times

26-04-2025

ST. LOUIS — A Friday afternoon Google search for 'Connor Hellebuyck' yielded seven of what Google calls its 'top stories.'
Three of those seven headlines were about Hellebuyck getting pulled in Game 3. Three more led with Hellebuyck being haunted by playoff demons. The seventh merely referenced Pavel Buchnevich's Game 3 hat trick.
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This is not an ideal place for a franchise goaltender's narrative to land, particularly after producing the best regular-season performance in the NHL for the second straight year while earning front-runner status for the Vezina Trophy and consideration for the Hart.
It is also a fair assessment of the Hellebuyck story right now. The 31-year-old goaltender, who specializes in a 'big and boring' playing style that exploits his best-in-class read of the play in front of him, has been beaten badly in recent playoff series. He's a generational goaltender, a future Hall of Famer and perhaps the best American goaltender in history, but Hellebuyck has allowed 52 goals in his last 13 playoff games.
'To not be able to keep four goals off the board is heartbreaking,' Hellebuyck said after Winnipeg's loss to the Colorado Avalanche in the playoffs last year. 'For me to not be able to put my foot down even in a single game is really heartbreaking. It's not typically how I do things.'
Hellebuyck's 'typical' is to be the best. This season, the defending Vezina Trophy winner posted the NHL's best save percentage and goals against average and the most shutouts and goals saved above expected among starters. He was brilliant for Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off, saving three goals above expected in the gold medal game as Canada held a dominant edge in slot shots.
So, why has he averaged four goals against in 13 playoff games going back to 2023 against the Vegas Golden Knights?
Is it something about the way Winnipeg defends in front of him? Something that teams have exploited? Or is it just bad luck in small samples? Remember that Hellebuyck was sensational against Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and company the last time Winnipeg won a playoff series, stopping 151 of 159 shots and posting one shutout in a four-game sweep. He out-battled Pekka Rinne in Game 7 of 2018 — the biggest playoff game in Jets history at the time — and has put together long stretches of spectacular play in front of poor defending before.
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How much of Hellebuyck's 'demons' are just narrative, then, and what are the facts?
Let's bring in The Athletic's resident goaltending guru, Jesse Granger, to explore how and why Hellebuyck has been beaten so far this series.
Here's how the 16 starting goalies stack up in Goals Saved Above Expected through 6 days of the NHL Playoffs (data via @EvolvingHockey)
Blackwood, Andersen, Markstrom and Thompson have been stellar.
Really slow starts for 3 Vezina winners at the bottom. pic.twitter.com/dhJ9VBIrDg
— Jesse Granger (@JesseGranger_) April 25, 2025
Hellebuyck hasn't been terrible over the first three games of the series, despite what his statistics might say. He also hasn't been his usual, spectacular self who bails the Jets out of defensive lapses with regularity.
At times, I wonder if his unique style of goaltending, which is built around playing deep in his crease to require less movement to stay in position, leaves him less room for error in the postseason. More than any other time of the year, teams crowd the crease in the playoffs and try to score through screens. Because Hellebuyck doesn't typically play these situations aggressively at the top of his crease, more net is available, and when he doesn't see the shot, the puck finds room.
This power-play goal by Jordan Kyrou in Game 1 is a good example. Once screened by Oskar Sundqvist, Hellebuyck shrinks into his net and flattens along the goal line by rotating his right skate back.
By the time the shot arrives, Hellebuyck is covering significantly less net, especially toward the far-side post, where Kyrou's shot scores.
Going back to last year's struggles in the first round against Colorado, it seems like a lot of goals are being scored against Winnipeg in this manner. Hellebuyck is so good at reading the play and staying in position when he sees the puck that teams are relying on firing shots from the point while sending all hands on deck to disrupt Hellebuyck's vision.
This goal by Kyrou in Game 3 is another good example because it highlights how many things are going wrong around Hellebuyck that certainly aren't helping.
First, it's a five-on-three power play for the St. Louis Blues, which already puts him behind the eight ball. On top of that, Hellebuyck is facing a cross-seam pass while dealing with a screen by Blues forward Brayden Schenn and an additional screen by his own defenseman, Dylan Samberg. If Samberg is going to kneel for that block, he really needs to make it, or he puts his goaltending in a tough spot.
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On most of the goals going in, it's hardly Hellebuyck's fault. But as mentioned, he's also not coming to the rescue as often, and once again, his depth is at least partially to blame. Before the pass, Hellebuyck has his toes at the top of his crease, but when he pushes across, he loses significant depth, ending up about halfway between his goal line and the top of the blue paint.
Kyrou's shot is perfectly placed into the corner, but if you look closely, Hellebuyck reacts with his glove. He missed it by an inch. If he were at the top of his crease, the puck likely would have hit him in the glove even if he didn't see it.
This isn't a plea for Hellebuyck to suddenly abandon the style that's made him the most consistent goaltender of this generation. It does mean his teammates need to work harder to clear traffic in front. It also means Hellebuyck could do himself a favor by standing tall and holding his ground confidently on these screens, rather than ducking or slumping back in an attempt to see the release.
A slippery thing about narratives, for better and for worse, is that they get dictated by results. When a series is won or lost, few observers slow down, rewind and dig into the process behind those results. Wins are inarguable and permanent; process is an opinion. Thus, our understanding of playoff greatness is determined by what happens, not what might have been.
When Winnipeg got reverse-swept by Colorado, not all observers considered the scale of the Avs' dominance in their analysis of the Jets' goaltender. Much like St. Louis did Thursday, Colorado had forechecked in waves. It recovered every dumped puck, took its shooting options and recovered so many pucks in a row that in Game 4, Colorado had taken four shots on goal in 20 seconds or less — twice — in the first six minutes.
When Jim Montgomery talks about the Blues attacking with 'chaos,' that's what he means. The Blues have found a way to get away from Winnipeg's swarming defence, getting out of outnumbered situations by firing pucks from one side of the offensive zone to the other and then being the first to recover them. They've crowded the Jets' crease, getting bounces and screens, kick plays and great hand-eye coordination.
It's Hellebuyck's job to fight through all of that. It's also Winnipeg's job to be better at handling net-front traffic to turn its 2-1 series lead into something approaching a win. If the Blues channel their Game 3 formula, take control of the series and blow out the Jets in Game 4, not many people will remember how they did it.
For Hellebuyck's and his team's sake and the enduring belief from Jets fans, the next search for Hellebuyck's name needs to result in a 'W.'