NHL playoffs second-round winners, 2025 Stanley Cup champion and more predictions

New York Times

05-05-2025

By Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, James Mirtle, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff
The second round of the 2025 NHL playoffs will begin tonight with Game 1 of Toronto Maple Leafs-Florida Panthers, followed by Washington Capitals-Carolina Hurricanes, Golden Knights-Edmonton Oilers and Winnipeg Jets-Dallas Stars in the upcoming days.
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What do we expect? What have we learned so far? Who will be left standing for the conference finals?
The Athletic surveyed its NHL staff to get their answers to these questions. We asked for a winner for each second-round series, plus updated picks to win the Eastern and Western Conferences, the Stanley Cup and the Conn Smythe.
Here are the full results of our survey. To analyze and critique the picks, we've brought in senior writers James Mirtle and Mark Lazerus, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger.
Figures are rounded.
Mirtle: Not a lot of be-Leaf in the staff, I see. There's no denying the Panthers have really had Toronto's number in recent years, and their second-round meeting two years ago, which Florida won in five games, looms large. But these Leafs should be better equipped to play a series like this than that group. Ultimately, however, this core has earned whatever skepticism it gets.
Lazerus: The Panthers are simply built for the playoffs. All the people rending garments over their middling play down the stretch must have never seen the mid-2010s Blackhawks or the late-2010s Penguins yawn their way through another meaningless March. I will say this, though: Anthony Stolarz gives me pause here. For the first time, I actually be-Leaf in a Toronto goalie. This won't be a cakewalk for Florida by any means.
Goldman: I think Round 1 was eye-opening on just how good this Panthers team is, too. We all know they have a ton of playoff pedigree, strength in their systems and a deep lineup. But there's a difference between knowing that on paper and actually seeing it all together in action for the first time in Round 1, truly at full strength.
Granger: I buried the Panthers too early after watching how banged up and flat-out tired they looked down the stretch of the regular season. Turns out they were just bored. They flipped their playoff switch quickly and look like the team to beat. No one makes life harder on the opposing goalies with bodies in front of the net.
Mirtle: It sounds like Frederik Andersen will be healthy, which is a big positive given how well he played in Round 1. This is going to be a really interesting one, given how big of a stylistic mismatch it is. Can Washington survive what is sure to be relentless pressure and puck possession all series long? And can Carolina turn pressure into pucks in the net?
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Granger: This series features the two remaining goalies with the highest save percentage and goals saved above expected in the first round. Both were also injured in the first round after being crashed into, although Logan Thompson's injury kept him out for less than a full game, while Andersen missed more time. Hopefully both are fully healthy now, because this should be a fun duel.
Lazerus: This is exactly what Dom's model spit out, too, right? The Capitals are the top seed in the East and have the longest odds to win the championship, per our degenerate friends in Las Vegas. If they win this round, will we finally believe? (No. No, we will not.)
Goldman: Being doubted hasn't fazed the Capitals at all this year, and being favored hasn't always helped the Hurricanes. Maybe the vibes decide this one! One thing we all seem to agree on is that this series should be pretty long and of a much different caliber from either of their Round 1 matchups.
Mirtle: Edmonton didn't exactly instill a ton of confidence with how Round 1 went, although the Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl show certainly delivered. I know a lot of people will be down on them because of their goaltending, but it's worth noting Adin Hill had a tougher first round than Calvin Pickard, statistically.
Lazerus: Hockey's the ultimate team game, right? Yes, except when it comes to the Oilers. McDavid and Draisaitl have attained a level of hockey godliness that makes you question everything about a series like this. Of course, Vegas should win. Handily, if we're being honest. And yet …
Goldman: On paper, Vegas has the shutdown talent to manage McDavid and Draisaitl, whether they are together or apart. They aren't as passive stylistically as the Kings, either. It makes perfect sense as to why so many of us (including me!) picked them. But … there always has to be a but for a team with McDavid and Draisaitl.
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Granger: On the one hand, the Golden Knights struggled to slow down the pairing of Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy early in their first-round series, and McDavid and Draisaitl are another level. On the other hand, after Bruce Cassidy put Jack Eichel and William Karlsson on the same line, they shut the Wild down, and we've already seen Karlsson give McDavid problems in the playoffs. This is an incredible matchup that should be one of the more emotional series in this postseason.
Mirtle: I haven't even looked at what our Cup picks are like, but I'm assuming Dallas is running away with it. Whoever survived that series was going to be a favorite, and the Stars doing it without Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson was really impressive. Connor Hellebuyck, meanwhile, has left everyone with a lot of doubts.
Lazerus: Having spent the past couple of weeks around the Stars, I'm a believer. There's this uncanny coolness to them, just a remarkable poise. Most teams, let's face it, might have rushed Heiskanen back for Games 6 and 7. Dallas didn't. Dallas stayed patient. And now Heiskanen is about to return. And now the moose is off Mikko Rantanen's back. And now Robertson is skating again. And now the Stars are the team to beat.
Goldman: The Stars were one of the deepest groups before Rantanen settled into his new surroundings. That's how they were able to weather the loss of Robertson in Round 1. But … can you say the same about the Jets, who are missing Mark Scheifele? Do they have the juice to potentially play without Josh Morrissey, either? If Hellebuyck was playing like his regular-season self, maybe. But the Jets can't count on that.
Granger: Perhaps that Game 7 win is what Hellebuyck needed to exorcise his playoff demons, and he's back to being the best goalie on earth. Perhaps the opposing fans will be chanting his name at American Airlines Center as he gets pulled on repeat. At this point, who the heck knows?
Mirtle: Yeah, dusting off that Tampa team in five games will do that.
Lazerus: I expected the Hurricanes to get more love here. Hard to deny how impressive the Panthers looked, though.
Goldman: Whichever team came out of the Battle of Florida was going to get all the support — and the way the Panthers gave Tampa Bay zero space in Round 1 only solidified that.
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Granger: I never thought I'd say this, but no one is talking about the Maple Leafs. In his first postseason starts, Stolarz looked built for this type of hockey. The battle in and around the Toronto crease is going to be fun to watch, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Stolarz come out on top — of that battle or the series.
Mirtle: Honestly, these four teams should probably be pretty close together. The West is so good this year; I still think any of these teams can win it here.
Granger: I'm in complete agreement. I don't know if I can remember a recent year with a stronger top four in the West.
Lazerus: OK, so forget all that stuff I said about the Stars. What if Hellebuyck, now freed from the belief and the burden that he needs to be utterly perfect in order for the Jets to win a series, goes back to being the best goalie on the planet? Hey, it could happen. Just remarkable to see how little love the two top seeds are getting here.
Goldman: Same as the East, in that the winner of what was thought of as a best-on-best in Round 1 was going to be the favorite to win it all. Who knows, maybe the adrenaline will run out after such a dramatic series.
Mirtle: Interesting that the Hurricanes are the only team no one picked, even though a lot of the oddsmakers have them as heavy favorites in this round.
Lazerus: I picked the Stars before it was cool to pick the Stars.
Goldman: Avalanche-Lightning was the trending pick before, now it's Stars-Panthers. Maybe the lesson is that we're all wrong and it will be Hurricanes-Oilers!
Granger: No, if we follow the pattern, the clear next turn is Jets-Maple Leafs.
Mirtle: Signs you had a good first round for $2,000, Alex. What a story it'll be if Rantanen wins it … against Carolina.
Lazerus: What Rantanen did in Games 5-7 was the stuff of legend. If Dallas does win it all, it'll be on his back.
Goldman: Thomas Harley could have landed high on this list if Rantanen didn't pop off in Round 1. For Vegas, Eichel got hot at the right time, but I think Mark Stone is The Guy who deserves the hype in that series against Minnesota.
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Granger: Having Eichel second here is more about projecting forward than him having a monster first round. He was incredibly quiet for the first five games against Minnesota, but after a brilliant performance to close that series out, and a must-watch matchup against McDavid on tap, Eichel could be heating up.
(Top photo of the Maple Leafs and Panthers: Mark Blinch / NHLI via Getty Images)