West Africa terror — why attacks on military bases are rising, and how to respond

Daily Maverick

13-07-2025

Immediate steps must be taken to combat a worrying rise in terrorist attacks in the region.
More than 40 Malian soldiers were killed and one of the country's ­military bases was taken over in early June in a major attack by Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), in the town of Boulikessi.
This same group, linked to al-Qaeda, launched an attack on the historic city of Timbuktu. The Malian army claimed it repelled the attack and killed 14 terrorists.
Terrorist groups have attacked Boulikessi in large numbers before. In October 2019, 25 Malian soldiers were killed. The target was a G5 Sahel force military camp.
Timbuktu has been in the sights of terrorist groups since 2012. The JNIM laid siege to the city, which has a major airport and a key military base, for several months in 2023.
In neighbouring Burkina Faso, there have been running battles in recent months between the military and terrorist groups. About 40% of the country is under the control of groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Military bases in the country have also been targeted.
Mali and Burkina Faso are under military rule. Insecurity, especially increasing ­terrorist attacks, were key reasons the military juntas gave for seizing power in both countries.
I have been researching terrorism and the formation of insurgent groups in west Africa and the Sahel for more than a decade. What I am observing is that the terrorist groups are becoming more daring and constantly changing tactics, with increased attacks on military camps across the region.
Military camps are attacked to lower the morale of the soldiers and steal ammunition. It also sends a message to the locals that military forces are incapable of protecting civilians.
I believe there are four main reasons for an increase in large scale attacks on military bases in the region: the loss of the US drone base in Niger, which has made surveillance difficult; an increase in human rights abuses carried out in the name of counterterrorism; a lack of a coordinated approach to counterterrorism; and constant changes of tactics by the terrorists.
Identifying and addressing these issues are important to counter the trend.
Why are the attacks increasing?
First is the loss of the US drone base in Agadez, Republic of Niger, in 2024, after the military seized power in the country.
I was initially sceptical when the drone base was commissioned in 2019. But it has, in fact, acted as a deterrent to terrorist groups. Terrorist organisations operating in the Sahel knew they were being watched by drones operating from the base. They were aware that surveillance information was shared with member states. The loss of the base has reduced reconnaissance and surveillance activities in the region.
Second, an increase in human rights abuse in the fight against terrorism in the region is dividing communities and increasing recruitment into terrorist groups. A report by Human Rights Watch in May accused the Burkina Faso military and allied militias of killing more than 130 civilians during counterterrorism operations.
It was argued in the report that members of the Fulani ethnic group were targeted in the operations because they were perceived to have relationships with terrorist groups. Terrorist groups are known to use such incidents to win the hearts and minds of local populations.
Third, the lack of a coordinated approach to counterterrorism in the region is reversing the gains made in the past decade. Major developments have included the dissolving of the G5 Sahel. This grouping was created in 2014 to enhance security coordination between members.
The members were Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad and Niger. The organisation launched joint counterterrorism missions across member states, but was dissolved in December 2023 after Niger and Burkina Faso withdrew.
The weakening of the Multinational Joint Task Force due to the military coup in Niger and the countries' strategic repositioning is undermining counterterrorism initiatives. The task force members were Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Benin.
The mandate of the task force is to combat Boko Haram and other terrorist groups operating around the Lake Chad basin. After its establishment in 2015, the task force achieved significant progress.
In January, Niger suspended its membership, putting the fight against terrorism in the region in jeopardy.
Fourth, terrorist groups in the region are becoming more sophisticated in their approach. In April, JNIM terrorists were suspected of launching a suicide drone attack on Togolese military positions.
For its part, the military in the Sahelian countries are struggling to adapt to the terrorists' new tactics. In the past few years there has been a proliferation of drones in Africa by states and non-state actors.
Halting the trend
To combat the increasing attacks by terrorist groups, especially large-scale attacks on military positions, four immediate steps are necessary.
First, nation states need to invest in surveillance capabilities. The loss of the drone base in Niger means Sahelian states must urgently find new ways of gathering and sharing intelligence.
The topography of the region, which is mainly flat with scattered vegetation, is an advantage as reconnaissance drones can easily detect suspicious movements, terrorist camps and travel routes. There is also a need to regulate the use of drones in the region to prevent use by non-state actors.
Second, countries fighting terrorism must find a way to improve the relationship between the military (and allied militias) and people affected by terrorism.
My latest article on the issue, in the journal African Security, shows that vigilante groups engaged by the military forces are sometimes complicit in human rights abuse. Training on human rights is essential for military forces and allied militias.
Third, terrorism funding avenues must be identified and blocked. Large-scale terrorist attacks involve planning, training and resources. Funding from illegal mining, trafficking and kidnapping must be identified and eradicated. This will also include intelligence sharing between nation states.
Finally, the Sahelian countries must find a mechanism to work with the Economic Community of West African States.
As the numbers and intensity of terrorist activities are increasing across the Sahel, immediate action is necessary to combat this trend. DM
First published by The Conversation.
Olayinka Ajala is an associate professor in politics and international relations at Leeds Beckett University in England.
This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.