‘The most honest reflection of the country': Inside the 905 — the ridings that helped deny Mark Carney a majority

Toronto Star

03-05-2025

Vina Viejo, a personal support worker in Richmond Hill, supported Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government with votes and campaign donations for almost a decade.
But Viejo's had a change of heart.
In last Monday's federal election, she moved her support behind Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and says she convinced her partner and multiple family members — about 15, she estimates, except for one holdout sister — to join her in abandoning the Liberals.
'We were all Liberals — we had the mentality that, because his father opened the immigration, we have to be thankful,' she said. 'But I changed my mind a month before the election. I like Poilievre's 'Canada First' and the housing plan. The people are sick and tired of the Liberals. (Liberal Leader Mark) Carney is a smart guy, but he was behind Trudeau.'
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Viejo's riding, Richmond Hill South, flipped with her, as Conservative newcomer Vincent Ho ended Liberal MP Majid Jowhari's decade in power.
It was part of a 905-belt blue wave that was isolated to parts of the region but strong enough to help deny Carney's Liberals a majority government, and to give them concern for the next federal election that, under a minority government, could come sooner rather than later.
Interviews with voters and political observers suggest the Conservatives had success — particularly in York, flipping five seats — by working hard over the years to convince people that their lifestyle is deteriorating thanks to factors including rampant crime, housing unaffordability and rising immigration, and that the only solution was a hard reset from the Liberal past. In many communities, local issues seemed to override fear around the impact of tariffs and U.S. President Donald Trump's rhetoric.
'It felt safer here when we first came to Canada — now you can't walk downtown,' Viejo said. 'And there is mass immigration but no housing or anything to deal with it.'
Conservatives made major gains north of Toronto, and to some extent to the west, while the east GTA was more resistant to change.
Vina Viejo, a personal support worker in Richmond Hill, supported Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government with votes and campaign donations for almost a decade until this election.
Nick Kozak/ Toronto Star
'Some might say the 905's role was diminished this election, but I think it's actually become more important,' Bakir Alazawi, a 905-based communications and political strategist. 'The 905 isn't just where elections are won. It's where the future of Canadian identity is negotiated.
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'It's economically anxious, culturally diverse and politically, and it's up for grabs every time. That makes it the most honest reflection of the country.'
A political bellwether
Canada's political polarization is acutely visible in the Greater Toronto Area's suburban and rural ring — a diverse and fast-growing area of roughly four million people that spans Durham to Halton and has long been seen as a crucial, vote-rich battleground and political bellwether for the country.
The message that a change was needed in government seemed to hit especially hard with younger voters such as Zakie Faqiryar, a 28-year-old sales representative who says he is disgusted that his community, Ajax, stayed Liberal and that many Canadians failed to see what he does: that only Poilievre can rescue the country.
'Ten years of Liberals, the same thing over and over, we're not getting anywhere and it's going to get worse,' Faqiryar said. 'They're going to implement different systems to control us more and more. Less affordable housing. Bringing in people who shouldn't be in the country. Liberal, for me now, is anti-Canada,' he said, adding he gets his information from Elon Musk's social platform X rather than mainstream news outlets.
Faqiryar says he's so disappointed he's thinking of moving to Saudi Arabia for better work opportunities and lower taxes.
Dramatically different results across the region show that it is not a monolith but as diverse as the country itself.
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'Our kids ... can't find any summer jobs'
In Newmarket-Aurora, previous NDP voter Iman Khwaja says she 'reluctantly' moved to the Liberals to stop Poilievre from becoming prime minister. The recent McGill graduate who works in communications was among those concerned that Poilievre's policies were too close to those of Trump. She said she was relieved by the federal result, although Conservative Sandra Cobena flipped her riding blue, defeating Liberal Jennifer McLachlan.
Despite the nationalistic tenure of Carney's campaign, which focused on taking on Trump and his tariffs, it was mostly local issues that resonated with voters in Vaughan, Richmond Hill and even in Brampton, where a 20 per cent jump in voter turnout showed Conservative efforts to bring new voters to the ballot box, including many younger residents, paid off.
Shameel Jasvir Singh, news director and one of the hosts at Red-FM, a popular South Asian radio outlet in Brampton, said many who called into his show were supporting Conservatives, including people upset with immigration policies and their impact on quality of life.
Shameel Jasvir Singh is the news director and host of Red FM, a popular South Asian radio station in Brampton. He hosts a daily show in Punjabi that has a big following in the community. Before the election he had listeners call in and ran an informal poll and was a bit surprised by how many pro-Conservative voices he heard from.
R.J. Johnston/ Toronto Star
'In terms of population, overcrowded basements and bad traffic and everything. That was one part. And then the student visa program, Brampton was the victim. And then all of the related problems that came with it. Crime, and then joblessness. Because now in Brampton, our kids, they can't find any summer jobs. So all those issues were big for people in Brampton,' he said.
Liberal strategists, who spoke to the Star on background to openly discuss political strategy, said York ridings have always been difficult for the party and are usually closely fought races, prompting visits from both party leaders. One difference for the Conservatives in this election was turnout.
In Vaughan for example, Francesco Sorbara, the Liberal candidate received more than 25,000 votes in this election, 4,000 more votes than he received in 2021. But while his Conservative opponent received 19,000 votes in 2021, the newly elected MP Michael Guglielmin received more than 40,000 votes in this campaign.
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The same was true in Richmond Hill South where Ho won the riding with more than 30,000 votes to Jowhari's 28,991 — a much higher total than Ho received in 2021, 2019 and 2015. In King-Vaughan, Conservative MP Anna Roberts held onto the riding, but doubled her vote count from about 22,000 in 2021 to over 41,000 in this campaign.
A Liberal strategist said the Conservatives effectively targeted and focused on younger Canadians, largely second-generation Canadians who felt their economic futures are not as secure as their parents.
'The local issues of public safety, immigration and the disappointment in the last few years of the Trudeau government were front and centre, much more than the tariffs and Trump rhetoric,' said Sorbara.
York has seen increasing violent crime, including carjackings, home invasions, shootings and homicides, according to police.
Lisa Boyd, who voted for Guglielmin, said, 'There was a really big movement of younger people who feel we needed some hope that we haven't had in a long time here,' she said. 'There's a lot of young families that are struggling and we all wanted to see some change here.'
Like others who helped flip Liberal seats, Boyd was 'gutted' there weren't enough flips to elect Poilievre. Like others interviewed, she expressed dismay and disbelief that Toronto voters threw the Liberals a lifeline with 23 of 24 seats.
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Markham mostly stayed Liberal, except for Markham-Unionville where Conservative candidate Michael Ma had a convincing win over Liberal candidate Peter Yuen — in part because of his ability to personally connect with undecided voters.
'An important signal'
Alex Yuan, who like Viejo lives in Richmond Hill South, says his friends have 'all been depressed' since the federal Liberal win, after they helped elect a Conservative to address concerns over neighbourhood crime and rising taxes.
Richmond Hill resident Alex Yuan says his friends have 'all been depressed' since the results came in on election night showing a Liberal victory. Many of them voted Conservative on Monday night, worried about crime in their neighborhoods.
R.J. Johnston/ Toronto Star
Yuan, a retired entrepreneur who serves as Board Chair on the Retirement Homes Regulatory Authority, said the Conservative candidate, Ho, also worked hard to knock on doors and connect with local voters on issues that matter to them, namely: increasing crime, diminishing public safety and affordability.
'When people worry, they generally come out to vote,' said Yuan, saying he noticed a significantly more engagement in the Chinese community this election.
On the other end of the 905 in Durham, there's also a triumvirate of Conservative ridings, two of which have been reliably so for decades.
Oshawa, with its huge reliance on the auto sector, is an example of how blue collar workers' views might be changing. From the '60s to the 80s, it voted NDP, sending Ed Broadbent, the leader of the party reliably to Ottawa. It flipped to Liberal in the '90s, but since 2004, it's been Conservative, held by Colin Carrie. Carrie didn't run this time around, and new Conservative candidate Rhonda Kirkland took the seat. Newcomer Conservative Jacob Mantle also took the new riding of York-Durham.
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Next to it used to be the riding of Durham, which also has been reliably behind the Tories, sending former leader Erin O'Toole to Parliament since 2012. Jamil Jivani took the seat in a byelection in 2024 but ran again in the newly drawn riding of Bowmanville-North Oshawa. Jivani credits Poilievre with making inroads with unions and focusing on their issues, such as the 'Boots Not Suits' messaging.
'I think that really was an important signal, not just to members of those unions, but also to others in the GTA who are working class people, hardworking people, in terms of just showing that the modern Conservative party is open to people who are aspiring for more economic security and more opportunity. I think that was really important in terms of our region.'
A sign of future Liberal woes?
If York is the area that turned, Brampton is the canary in a Conservative coal mine where potentially future problems lie for the Liberals. There are six ridings with five longtime Liberal incumbents — although due to newly redrawn ridings two were running in new areas.
'It does really come to down to the 905': Conservatives gain key seats in Greater Toronto
Conservative Amarjeet Gill defeated Kamal Khera. While the other four Liberal MPs won, they were tight races, with the largest winner, Maninder Sidhu in Brampton East over Bob Dosanjh Singh by a margin of 1,800 votes. Brampton Centre's new Liberal candidate Amandeep Sodhi won by 176 votes over Taran Chahal.
According to Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara Strategic Insights, this was a trend seen across the country in heavily populated South Asian ridings, with the Conservatives picking up a 15 point gain on the Liberals. The Liberals did hold their own, but most of the rest of their gains came through the collapse of the NDP.
'To Poilievre's credit, he has put a lot of time into outreach. He's done a lot of events, not just in the South Asian community, but other multicultural groups, and communities in Canada the last couple of years, whereas Carney, just by virtue of being very new on the scene, probably hasn't had the same time to kind of build some of those relationships,' said Arnold.
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'So, what does that mean for the Liberals in another campaign, 12, 14, 15 months from now?' said Scott Reid, a political analyst and principal at Feschuk Reid. 'It probably means you're going to have to look at that pocket of issues that are going to matter in the 905 and particularly the Bramptons and the Yorks and say, 'What are those issues we can concentrate on over the next 15 months and get rewarded for it? And that's an important part of it, right? The getting rewarded for it.''
Viejo, the Richmond Hill personal support worker who abandoned the Liberals, predicts more 905 residents will follow her lead.
'Carney seemed like more of the same thing. Next time, I think Poilievre will win.'
With files from Ryan Tumilty