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Toronto Star
31-05-2025
- Politics
- Toronto Star
Donald Trump turned Canada's predictable election into a chaotic race. Behind the scenes, Pierre Poilievre was struggling to adapt
The story so far In Part 1, we followed Mark Carney's unexpected rise and the unravelling of Pierre Poilievre's once-inevitable campaign — a race reshaped by the return of Donald Trump. In Part 2, the campaign kicks off, the ballot question shifts, and the stakes for Canada escalate. It was now clear to Poilievre's campaign that there would be 'dueling ballot questions.' Carney was positioning himself to run against Trump, portraying himself as a serious man with a serious plan who would 'never ever bow down to a bully.' And Trudeau, who was still the prime minister, was helping lay the groundwork for that message and carving out his own legacy by announcing that Ottawa would fight back with escalating tariffs. He called on Canadians to stand up for their country. On Feb. 7, he went further, telling a group of business leaders that Trump was serious about making Canada his country's 51st state because he wanted its vast mineral resources. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The Conservatives needed to pivot. Star Exclusive: Part 1 Analysis Trudeau was done, Carney was new, but Poilievre made a critical mistake. Here's how the Conservative's set themselves up to fail Althia Raj Star Exclusive: Part 3 Analysis We talked to 106 political insiders. Here's why Pierre Poilievre lost his seat and Mark Carney couldn't land a majority in Canada's surprising election Althia Raj 'We at least needed to play enough defence on the Trump issue that we could take that off the table for as many Canadians as possible,' said a Poilievre adviser. Days after launching a new ad that made no mention of Trump, the Conservatives opened a new message track. On Feb. 15, caucus members, staff and their families were invited to dress in red and white for a 'Canada First' rally in Ottawa. The party planned to record an ad that showed Poilievre could stand up to Trump too, that he also had a plan, and that the Conservatives would defend the country just as vociferously as the Liberals — 'that, in many ways, we were better prepared to take on that challenge,' one adviser explained. Pierre Poilievre at the 'Canada First' rally on Feb. 15 in used his 66-minute speech at the rally to reframe some of his long-standing policies. His pledge to 'axe the tax' was now 'an even bigger issue,' he insisted, because combined with Trump's tariffs, it would 'decimate' Canadian industries and jobs. His tax cuts were branded 'patriotic,' and his pledge to scrap Liberal environmental regulations that blocked oil and gas development, he argued, were more necessary than ever. It had taken the Conservative leader a while to get to this point. Pundits suggested the party's base was split; polling suggested a slight majority of the party's supporters preferred Trump to his Democratic challenger, Kamala Harris. But the Liberals would not let Poilievre rebrand himself as 'Captain Canada.' Ads released that day highlighted Poilievre's claims that Canada was 'broken' and that Canadians were 'stupid,' and juxtaposed his words with similar MAGA talking points from Trump. They stressed that the Conservative leader was the 'wrong choice' at the 'wrong time.' ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The Liberals felt their ' Made in America ' ad was one of their most successful efforts at hardening their support. Some organizers wondered whether it should have been broadcast for longer or brought back at the end of the election campaign. The Conservatives fought back with a contrast ad of their own, suggesting Trump wanted Canadian jobs and Carney would help him ship them to the U.S. 'It was a constantly changing environment,' noted one Conservative. 'And because of that, we had a plan that was sort of constantly getting updated.' Public opinion polls were tightening up. A February survey from Leger suggested the Conservatives would be in a dead heat with the Liberals if they were led by Carney. Angus Reid suggested that public support for the Liberals, with Carney as their presumed leader, had increased 21 points in two months, with New Democrat and Bloc Québécois voters flocking to them, and the Conservatives dropping five points. Carney's leadership team felt momentum too. Earlier that month, so many people showed up to a meet and greet at Joe Kool's pub in London, Ont. that they couldn't all fit in. A week later, the same thing happened in North Vancouver when an event booked at a Milestones restaurant had to be moved to a rented ballroom to fit 1,000 people. Even in the Conservative heartland, Carney packed the Flying Monkeys craft brewery in Barrie, Ont. on a weekday, during working hours. They were so confident that planning for the general election was now fully underway. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Not that there weren't hiccups. Carney visibly struggled during the Liberal leadership candidates' French-language debate in Montreal, when he couldn't tell the moderator how much it cost a family of four to fill their weekly grocery cart. In earlier interviews, he'd mistakenly suggested in French that he wanted to cut federal transfer payments to the provinces and individuals. Now he was saying that he 'agreed with Hamas.' 'We do not agree with Hamas,' Freeland interrupted. 'Against Hamas,' Carney clarified. Just as Trudeau's unpopularity masked Poilievre's mistakes, Trump's unpopularity seemed to mask Carney's weaknesses. But many voters had already concluded they liked what they saw. Dismissive, prickly and condescending On the morning of March 14, Mike Myers called. Carney was about to be sworn in as Canada's 24th prime minister. He had won the Liberal leadership five days earlier on the first ballot with 85.9 per cent support. It was more than Trudeau received in 2013 (80 per cent), more than Poilievre received from Conservative members in 2022 (68 per cent). Freeland had come in a distant second with eight per cent. On the back porch of the Governor General's residence, Jane Deeks, Carney's director of digital strategy, took a video call from Myers on her phone. Huddled beside her were Mike Maka, deputy campaign manager for the upcoming Liberal election tour, Thomas Pitfield, who would be the campaign's executive director, and Gerald Butts and his wife, Jodi. Days earlier, Maka had emailed the Scarborough native after his March 1 appearance on Saturday Night Live, where he'd worn a 'Canada is not for sale' T-shirt and mouthed 'elbows up' during the show's closing credits. Myers had called back that afternoon, enthusiastically. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The Mark Carney-Mike Myers ad. While they were brainstorming ideas for a Carney ad — one that would focus on Canada, and try not too hard to be funny, out the window Justin Trudeau could be seen, with Katie Telford at his side, walking out of Rideau Hall after resigning as prime minister. That afternoon, the new prime minister's first move — designed to show he was a change from Trudeau — was a theatrical signing of a document that ordered the 'carbon tax' reduced to zero. As Conservatives quibbled over whether the Liberal photo-op carried any regulatory weight, Carney flew to Europe to present himself the way he wanted Canadians to see him — in touch with Canada's traditional values in a meeting with King Charles, and at home on the international stage, being warmly embraced by French President Emmanuel Macron. The trip was not entirely smooth. Carney demonstrated that he could be dismissive, prickly and condescending — something his staff and some cabinet ministers had already noticed — when he snapped at journalists during a news conference. An adviser suggested that was a useful learning moment for the new prime minister. If he hoped to contrast his demeanour with that of Poilievre, Carney needed to always act like the adult in the room — he could not afford to be anything but calm, composed, and patient during the election campaign. Back in Canada, Poilievre was still leaning into his 'axe the tax' pledge, unwilling to shed a policy that had already delivered so much for the Conservatives. ('It was such an unbelievably effective wedge against the Liberals, it was hard to let go of,' a Poilievre adviser later noted.) Not only would he scrap the consumer carbon tax, Poilievre said, but he would also scrap the industrial price on carbon, which he billed as a 'shadow' tax that increased the cost of all goods. wedge (The carbon tax) was such an unbelievably effective wedge against the Liberals, it was hard to let go of Carney, meanwhile, set out to further distance himself from Trudeau, and to demonstrate his pragmatism. He announced he would eliminate the GST on new homes costing up to $1 million for first-time homebuyers — a proposal very similar to one made earlier by Poilievre. Then he reversed the previous Liberal government's increase in the capital gains tax. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW He would make more promises that were similar to previously announced Conservative pledges: an income-tax cut for all Canadians; cutting municipal development charges to spur home construction; buying new icebreakers for the North, investing in the Canadian Rangers program, and fixing the Canadian Armed Forces recruitment process; allowing workers who travel far for work to deduct their expenses, boosting apprenticeship grants in the skills trades and increasing funding for the Union Training and Innovation Program. By echoing promises that Poilievre had been making for months — and, in some cases, years — Carney was trying to move the conversation away from the two rivals' policy differences, and towards what he wanted to focus on: leadership. 'He's Mr. Business' On the eve of the election call, Maka and Deeks walked into their respective offices at the Liberal party's Ottawa headquarters. Maka wrote on a white board for his team, 'He's not a rock star, he's Mr. Business.' This wasn't another Trudeau campaign. Carney's personal appearances, rallies and media events all needed a different vibe. Deeks, now the Liberals' deputy campaign manager for digital, pinned a piece of paper to a bulletin board, on which she had written for her team, 'Stand up to President Trump and build the economy.' Every ad, every message from the campaign, would need to come back to those two ideas. On March 23, a day before MPs were set to return to the House of Commons, Carney went to Rideau Hall and asked Gov. Gen. Mary Simon to call an election for April 28. It would be a 37-day campaign — the shortest legally possible. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW When he emerged, Carney asked Canadians for a strong mandate to deal with Trump. He framed the coming election as one to decide who could best deal with a crisis, calling Trump's 51st state rhetoric and the tariffs he was promising existential threats to Canada. Across the Ottawa River, Poilievre made the case for why the Liberals should be sent packing, and why his Conservatives could be trusted to make the big changes Canada needed. Poilievre had started trying to distance himself from Trump, jumping on the U.S. president's comment that he thought it would be 'easier to deal, actually, with a Liberal' heading the Canadian government, and that 'the Conservative that's running is, stupidly, no friend of mine.' In response, the Conservative leader posted on X, 'it is true, I am not MAGA. I am for Canada First. Always.' Mr. President, it is true. I am not MAGA. I am for Canada First. Always. Canada has always been America's best friend & ally. But we will NEVER be the 51st state. — Pierre Poilievre (@PierrePoilievre) February 28, 2025 But comments made weeks earlier by an ally were coming back to haunt him. In an interview with the right-wing website Breitbart, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith had said she not only asked Trump administration officials to 'pause' tariff threats to help the federal Conservatives, but also had described Poilievre as a better partner for the Americans, sharing her view that the 'perspective that Pierre would bring would be very much in sync with, I think … the new direction in America.' When the campaign began, the Liberals had overtaken the Conservatives in public opinion polls. 'It was an extremely productive call' The Liberal leader's campaign did not get off to the smoothest start. After leaving Rideau Hall, Carney flew to St. John's, Newfoundland for a rally. He was nervous. The crowd wanted to support him. He was serious. The crowd wanted to cheer. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Then, midway through a stump speech from which he would not deviate much throughout the campaign, Carney declared that the Americans wanted our country. Someone in the crowd yelled back, 'They can't have it!' Carney smiled. 'They can't have it,' he replied. His advisers, who had worried about how their neophyte candidate would fare under the pressure and scrutiny of running for the highest office in the land, breathed a sigh of relief. Liberal Party of Canada Leader Mark Carney with a supporter at his campaign kick-off rally in St. John's on March 23. Frank Gunn/ The Canadian Press Several thousand kilometres away, the Conservatives were trying to project a different image of Carney. They suggested the Liberal leader had profited off sick coal miners in the U.S., describing the company he chaired, global investment firm Brookfield Asset Management, as 'Carney's company.' Poilievre suggested Carney was corrupt. He accused the Liberal leader of using his position as an adviser to Trudeau to obtain a multimillion-dollar loan for Brookfield from Chinese bankers. He accused Carney of refusing to disclose his conflicts of interest, of not divesting of all of his assets, of engaging in improper tax dodging practices while at Brookfield. Some of those allegations were repeated in 'Sneaky Mark Carney ' ads. But the attempt to brand Carney as 'sneaky' didn't bother the Liberals. To them, the bigger threat was that the Conservatives would try to convince voters that the Liberal party was trying to pull a fast one on the country — that 'it wasn't that Mark Carney was sneaky, it was that the Liberals were,' in the words of one Carney adviser. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'That's what they f- - -ed up,' the Carney adviser continued. 'Had they started with 'sneaky Liberals trying to give you Mark Carney,' that … would have been a different campaign.' Liberals also say they found the Brookfield allegations weren't much of a concern. In nightly focus groups, 'People were like, 'Oh, he's a business guy. He did business-guy things. I don't care',' said the same adviser. They f'd up That's what they f- - -ed up. Had they started with 'sneaky Liberals trying to give you Mark Carney,' that … would have been a different campaign Poilievre's team had hoped that one allegation they'd dug up would cause serious damage — not at the level of Trudeau's history of dressing up in blackface, but a significant blow. They believed they'd uncovered evidence that Carney had plagiarized parts of the doctoral thesis he submitted at Oxford University, and leaked the information to the National Post. A categorical denunciation by Carney's doctoral supervisor, that there was 'no evidence of plagiarism … nor any unusual academic practices,' laid the story to rest. The Liberal leader, however, had other problems. During a campaign stop in Nova Scotia, Carney mispronounced the name of a star candidate in Quebec, Nathalie Provost, and mistakenly described her as a victim of 'the shootings at Concordia.' Provost had been shot during the 1989 massacre at École polytechnique, the engineering school at the Université de Montréal where 14 women were murdered. As some Quebecers wondered whether Carney knew anything about their province, the Liberals announced he would shun a leaders' debate organized by TVA, the French-language private broadcaster. Carney gave different reasons why he didn't want to do it — the $75,000 participating fee, the exclusion of the Greens. Pundits speculated that the real reason was his French wasn't strong enough. Carney was struggling to find his footing. Meanwhile, Poilievre packed rallies with thousands of supporters in North York and Hamilton. The Conservatives were projecting momentum. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Pierre Poilievre at one the many packed rallies he held during the campaign. Cathie Coward/The Hamilton Spectator Then Donald Trump swooped in. On March 26, the president signed an executive order that would impose 25 per cent tariffs on all automobile imports to the U.S. the following week. When the news broke, Carney happened to be meeting with Lana Payne, the president of Unifor, the union that represents Canadian autoworkers. 'You know, this will hurt us, but through this period by being together, we will emerge stronger,' he told reporters in Kitchener, Ont. Then he suspended his campaign and headed to Ottawa. (Later, Carney would suggest to Radio-Canada that he enjoyed governing much more than campaigning, which he summarized as, 'We give speeches, we shake hands, we look at cows.') In Toronto that evening, Premier Doug Ford's campaign manager told an Empire Club audience that the federal Conservatives were going to lose the election if they didn't pivot quickly and address the main ballot question on voters' mind: Trump. 'You gotta get on that issue, and you might not totally win, but you can't lose by 20 points on it,' strategist Kory Teneycke told the crowd. 'You've got to have a pivot that is taking some of the momentum of that issue shift and directing it towards things that are yours.' The next morning, Poilievre offered his response. Speaking directly to autoworkers who were at risk of losing their jobs, he said his message to Trump was, 'Knock it off.' ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW President Trump's unjustified tariffs on our auto sector are an assault on our economy and workers. The Americans will soon see how the pain will be felt on both sides of the border. Canada First Conservatives will build a Canadian economic fortress to protect our affected jobs… — Pierre Poilievre (@PierrePoilievre) March 27, 2025 Carney, by contrast, met with his Canada-U.S. cabinet committee, then addressed the nation with a sombre warning. 'The old relationship we had with the United States, based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military co-operation, is over,' he declared. The next day he spoke on the phone with Trump, then held a virtual meeting with the premiers. The phone call had gone well. Carney had taken the long view, concluding that if he won the election, he'd need to deal with Trump. He told the U.S. president the two could work together. The tone was respectful. The president did not antagonize Carney by referring to him as 'governor,' the way he had with Trudeau. But Trump made his pitch for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state; Carney, according to two sources, responded, 'We can talk about a lot of things, but not that.' After the call, Carney's team waited nervously for Trump's inevitable post on social media. It was a glowing review. 'I just finished speaking with Prime Minister Mark Carney, of Canada. It was an extremely productive call, we agree on many things, and will be meeting immediately after Canada's upcoming Election to work on elements of Politics, Business, and all other factors, that will end up being great for both the United States of America and Canada,' Trump wrote. 'Thank you for your attention to this matter.' A Conservative adviser wondered if the cordial tone of the conversation 'slightly limited (Carney's) ability to talk as harshly as he had been.' But Carney appeared relaxed as he confidently swatted away reporters' questions about the call at a news conference that afternoon. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The political rookie had survived his first week. He had a bounce in his step. According to their own internal polling, the Liberals were about to cross into majority territory, on track to win between 182 and 187 seats in the House of Commons. Those projections would remain there for most of the campaign. 'We were all flustered' As Donald Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement loomed, Carney paused his campaign — and Poilievre prepared a big strategic pivot. 'There were constantly tensions on the campaign between how much we should talk about Donald Trump — because we didn't have a choice and it would look incredibly unserious and tone-deaf if we didn't mention him — and how much we could get away with not talking about Trump, because it just wasn't helpful for us,' said a Conservative adviser. trump There were constantly tensions on the campaign (about) how much we should talk about Donald Trump That day, Poilievre spoke to a roomful of partisans designed to look like an Economic Club gathering of business leaders, in an attempt to address that tension. He outlined the Conservatives' plan to deal with the Trump White House. Poilievre and his strategists would see how the speech landed — if he needed to keep talking about Trump or whether these comments would suffice — and adjust if necessary. Poilievre looked the part of a prime minister, standing behind a podium adorned with a red maple leaf. A blue backdrop with the slogan 'Canada First, for a change' signalled another message shift. That afternoon, Trump unveiled his list of countries targeted for 'reciprocal' tariffs. Campaign workers in the Liberal and Conservative war rooms watched attentively. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'We were all flustered around a TV trying to pause it at the right freeze frame so that when he held up his stupid chart high enough we could actually see if Canada was on there,' recounted one Conservative staffer. Canada was not on the list. President Donald Trump announced widespread reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Canada was not on this list. Mark Schiefelbein/AP Carney had flown to Ottawa to meet with his Canada-U.S. cabinet committee. The following day, he would speak with the premiers. Although Canada had been spared new tariffs, previously announced auto tariffs were scheduled to come into effect at midnight. The 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum remained, as well as tariffs on softwood lumber. And there was talk of other tariffs coming on pharmaceuticals, copper, and semiconductors. The next day, Carney announced new reciprocal tariffs, and measures to aid Canadian businesses and help Canadian workers access Employment Insurance more quickly. Trump was again dominating the conversation. 'It was loud and clear in my riding' By the third week of the campaign, public polling suggested the Liberals had the support of 44 per cent of voters nationally — putting them on track for a solid majority government. Internally, riding forecasts were full of opportunity, with 14 seats potentially up for grabs in Quebec, and another eight in Alberta. Across the country, Liberal candidates were recounting stories of people they'd never seen before stopping by their offices to drop off cheques or to volunteer. As the campaign reached the halfway point, the Conservatives were balancing aggressive pitches in NDP-held ridings in B.C. and Liberal ridings in the GTA, with efforts to shore up their traditional support. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Poilievre held a rally near Edmonton, where the Liberals hoped to make inroads. Before a crowd the Conservatives claimed was 15,000 strong — police pegged attendance at closer to 9,000 — Poilievre was endorsed by Stephen Harper, his former boss. That endorsement would later be highlighted in an ad with the former prime minister saying he was uniquely qualified to compare Carney and Poilievre since the two men had both worked for him. Former prime minister Stephen Harper endorsed Poilievre. Harper said he was uniquely qualified to compare Carney and Poilievre since the two men had both worked for him. JASON FRANSON THE CANADIAN PRESS The Conservatives also started to shift their message, making a more forceful case for change, that Canada could not afford another four-years of Liberal government. Elsewhere on the campaign trail, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet continued to struggle to insert themselves into the conversation. Singh was pleading with voters to send New Democrats to Ottawa to cap grocery prices, ban corporations from buying affordable homes, invest in health care, and expand pharmacare. "We got this, we got this, let's go!" Singh cried out during a campaign stop in Saskatoon that sounded more desperate than enthusiastic. On the other side of the country, Blanchet was arguing that a vote for the Bloc helped ensure Quebec ridings had a more powerful voice in Ottawa. But most Quebecers seemed to agree with former Bloc MP Kristina Michaud, who told the Star's ' It's Political ' podcast, that with Trump at the door, many voters felt the Bloc was 'a luxury that people cannot really afford right now.' While the wind seemed to be at the Liberals' backs, their candidates in the GTA, Alberta and B.C. were encountering a worrisome trend as they knocked on doors: Their voter coalition seemed to be changing, and long-time supporters were abandoning the party. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Even before the campaign began, the Liberals were concerned by softness in their support in the GTA, especially in York Region, and within the South Asian community. 'We had a problem but we didn't know how acute that problem was,' said one Carney organizer. Candidates were reporting that second-generation Sikhs, Hindus, Muslims and Italians — and especially young men — were shunning the Liberals. 'There was a generational difference between parents and their children,' added another staff member. Some Liberals felt they had to play catch-up in a race the Conservatives had started running years ago. 'They've done a really good job convincing a lot of diaspora communities that they are Conservatives, and that crime is the number-one ballot box issue,' said a GTA incumbent. It was a race they were bound to lose. 'There's not a lot you can do in a 30-day campaign to fix two or three years of non-stop Conservative attacks on immigration, on public safety,' explained the Carney organizer. Crime and immigration were coming up a lot. 'It was loud and clear in my riding, it was loud and clear in York Region, and it was loud clear in Brampton,' said another Toronto-area MP. acute problem We had a problem but we didn't know how acute that problem was The Liberals had leaned hard into the threat Trump posed to Canada as they tried to shift the ballot-box question away from 10 years of Trudeau. And for many voters, it was the driving factor for their vote. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW But for a lot of voters from South Asian backgrounds, it was not. 'They did not buy that premise,' said a Liberal organizer, who said many of them felt the Trudeau government had failed to adequately respond to concerns they had raised about immigration and crime. 'They still really cared about their issues and not Trump.' Speaking in Brampton on April 10, Carney finally made a crime announcement: a 27-point plan that was never raised again on the campaign trail. Although the Liberals pledged to make bail conditions stricter and to hire thousands more officers for the Canada Border Services Agency and RCMP, the messaging leaned heavily on firearms regulations. Back at Liberal headquarters, the campaign discussed whether an ad could help neuter the immigration issue. There was strong pushback, with some fearing it would backfire and draw attention to allegations that the Liberal government had bungled the file. Instead, Carney's team decided to focus on crime. Bill Blair, then the defence minister and a former Toronto police chief, was asked to voice a community safety ad focused on guns. Blair had performed this role during the 2021 campaign, and the ads were seen as crucial to propping up Liberal support the in 905 area. But this time, using gun control as a wedge issue seemed to misdiagnose the problem. These voters weren't worried about guns — they were worried about criminals out on bail, their homes being invaded and their cars being stolen. Although the ads tested well, Liberal candidates were not impressed. 'We went to that well one too many times,' said another Carney adviser. In response, Blair was tapped to do another ad on bail reform which was placed in ethnic media. Several other ads, in Punjabi, Hindi and Urdu, were made to address crime concerns. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW But there would be no further crime announcements. 'We were winning on the main message,' explained one team member. 'Why would we try to fight on an issue we probably won't win on, where the Conservatives are seen as stronger than us?' Main message We were winning on the main message. Why would we try to fight on an issue we probably won't win on? 'We just ran out of time' It was week four, and with another week and a half to go, Carney was hunkered down in Montreal, preparing for three crucial events: an appearance on the Quebec TV talk show 'Tout le monde en parle,' then the French- and English-language leaders' debates. Carney had spent two and a half days preparing for the debates — about the same as Poilievre. Steven MacKinnon, the Liberal incumbent for Gatineau, played the role of Poilievre, outgoing Toronto MP Arif Varani played Singh, Sen. Pierre Moreau played Blanchet, and Quebec-area incumbent Joël Lightbound played Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault. Carney had also spent two weeks preparing to be interviewed and to debate in French — for which a mistake could easily cost the Liberals their majority — with Andrée-Lyne Hallé, the other national campaign co-director. The two had spent close to an hour each day, often discussing on the plane. 'She didn't just speak French to him,' a colleague explained. 'She taught him how to be a Quebecer.' The debates, a Carney adviser had told the Star weeks earlier, would 'only matter if he loses his cool and snaps at someone.' He did not. The Conservatives hoped the debates would provide a moment — a knockout punch or an error in French — that could change the course of the campaign. They did not. But they gave Poilievre a platform to show Canadians — critically, the ones whose support he was losing — that he could shift his tone. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The problem was that he'd waited too long. 'The leader during the debates was the best version of him that I have ever seen,' said a Poilievre adviser. 'We just ran out of time.' Public opinion surveys suggested the Conservatives were starting to narrow the gap with the Liberals. An Abacus Data poll, from April 14 and 15, found support for the Conservatives had increased six points over two weeks. More voters were now saying change was needed. The Conservatives leaned more forcefully into that message in the campaign's remaining days. The Liberals believed that waiting so long had been their rivals' biggest mistake, and were grateful the pivot hadn't come sooner. 'They caught on to the thing that worked too late,' said one adviser. They had anticipated the Conservatives would get on the change message about two weeks earlier. 'Our argument would have been, 'Change can be many things. In the United States, change is Donald Trump. We're both change. What kind of change do people want?'' No longer running to win Advance polls were held on Easter weekend. The Liberals had debated whether to extend the writ by a week to avoid the holiday but Carney, a devout Catholic, had given his approval and they now felt they had made the right choice. Their voters showed up in droves. Some believe the election was won that weekend. Remarkably, one fixture of election campaigns was still missing by the time Canadians started to vote: none of the major parties had released a platform. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Carney, who was greatly involved in writing the platform and made changes until the last moment, had wanted to release it the morning of the French-language debate. But the Liberals had gotten word the Conservatives wanted to wait to see their numbers before releasing their own, so they waited. On April 19, the Liberals finally released their costed platform: 'Canada Strong, Mark Carney's plan to unite, secure, protect and build.' (Carney polled ahead of the Liberal brand.) It booked a lot of spending: $129 billion over four years. There were few details on savings the Liberals would find, as Carney tried to tell Canadians that the government would be spending less and investing more. It sounded a lot like Trudeau in 2015 — but Carney was a highly regarded economist, so perhaps voters would give him a pass. Liberal Leader Mark Carney at the release of his party's election platform in Whitby, Ont., on April 19. Christinne Muschi/ The Canadian Press The Conservatives, now under pressure, released their numbers after the advance polls had closed. They also booked a lot of spending: $154 billion over four years. But by using a different accounting method — including the revenue from the projected economic impact of government spending — Poilievre was projecting much smaller deficits. Few seemed to care. Standing before his candidates in an empty hall in Woodbridge, Ont., Poilievre also didn't appear to care. The morning he released the platform that he and his party had worked on for a year and a half, he was more interested in discussing a report from an obscure government branch known as Policy Horizons. Poilievre mischaracterized the report to suggest the government was predicting a future where upward mobility was unheard of, where owning a home was an unrealistic goal, and where people needed to hunt, fish and forage on public lands to feed themselves. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW While the Conservatives had shifted their communications strategy to appeal to older voters by removing Poilievre's name and image from a campaign ad featuring golfers, the leader now appeared to be pandering to a narrower base by flirting with conspiracy theories. For three days, Poilievre talked about the report — much to the bewilderment of many on his campaign staff. It was a strange move for Poilievre, who is described as a 'workaholic' and a micromanager 'who reviews basically everything that goes out personally,' and is known to message employees at 2 a.m. with policy questions, speech suggestions or even requests to change the font colour on digital products. Some Conservatives concluded he was no longer running to win the election, and was only trying to maintain his grip on the leadership of his party. By then, the Liberals and the Conservatives knew how many of their identified supporters had voted in the advance polls. The Liberals felt confident. The polling had not significantly changed, and it looked — to everyone — like they were going to win again. But some felt a majority government was not a lock. Conservative support was growing in some quarters, and the Liberal field team worried about tight numbers in Ontario. Poilievre's base was motivated, and was expected to show up and vote. The Liberals weren't sure if many of the new ridings that appeared to be in play had the ground game required to turn out their vote. In places like Victoria, they had twice thought they could pull it off and had come up short. Would the same thing happen again? 'Do you trust your ground game … in those ridings that don't have as much of a history of, you know, executing really good local campaigns?' asked one organizer. 'It's not a slight against the locals, but it's not like a battleground GTA riding that's used to very competitive and sophisticated campaigns.' ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW This would prove to be an interesting observation one week later. For now, though, Trump had receded from the news cycle, and voters were turning their attention back to affordability concerns, crime and safety. Carney was starting to sound a little stale. The Conservatives were slowly increasing their support. Ground game Do you trust your ground game … in those ridings that don't have as much of a history of, you know, executing really good local campaigns? The Liberals, who had plotted out a few paths to victory — a repeat of the 2015 campaign, or if they lost ground in the GTA, different options that focused on pickups in B.C., including Vancouver Island, more in seats in Quebec, and in the Prairies — were now deciding where to shift resources. They based those decisions on information gleaned from nearly daily focus groups, phone polls and riding surveys, by aggregating existing public data, by factoring in anecdotal feedback from the field and weighing how well their fundraising was going, and by absorbing all the voter identifications from candidates knocking on doors across the country. The result was a rating for each riding on a sliding scale: diamond, platinum, gold, silver, bronze, steel or wood. Where a riding stood on that scale usually determined which resources — if any — would be allocated there. They were paying particular attention to one riding — as were the Conservatives, who had realized that Poilievre might actually be in trouble in Carleton, which he'd represented in Parliament for more than 20 years. They rounded up party staff and called for volunteers to knock on doors there. So did the Liberals. Bruce Fanjoy, Liberal Party of Canada candidate for Carleton, right, ran against Poilievre and ultimately won. Spencer Colby/ The Canadian Press Their local candidate, Bruce Fanjoy, had been pounding the pavement in the riding for more than two years, but his campaign really gained momentum after Carney became leader. 'I'm 60 years old. I've never voted anything but Conservative,' a man named Bob Neske told the Star outside a Liberal rally in Nepean, Ont., on April 20. 'I am actually out canvassing for … the Liberal guy to try to get Pierre Poilievre out of politics because I think he's a horrible leader.' The number of people identifying as Liberal voters in the riding had jumped. Fanjoy's fundraising numbers were impressive, and a phone poll of the riding suggested he actually had a shot at unseating Poilievre. Jamie Kippen, the Liberals' deputy campaign manager for national field, sent more than 20 staff members to the riding. 'Most ridings get one. A riding we are really targeting gets two or three central staff,' explained a field organizer. 'Kippen threw everything including the kitchen sink at that riding.' Up Next Read Part 3: The last days on the trail, the election night surprises — and what comes next for both leaders. Star Exclusive: Part 1 Analysis Trudeau was done, Carney was new, but Poilievre made a critical mistake. Here's how the Conservative's set themselves up to fail Althia Raj Star Exclusive: Part 3 Analysis We talked to 106 political insiders. Here's why Pierre Poilievre lost his seat and Mark Carney couldn't land a majority in Canada's surprising election Althia Raj Politics Headlines Newsletter Get the latest news and unmatched insights in your inbox every evening Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. Please enter a valid email address. Sign Up Yes, I'd also like to receive customized content suggestions and promotional messages from the Star. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Politics Headlines Newsletter You're signed up! You'll start getting Politics Headlines in your inbox soon. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page.
Hamilton Spectator
03-05-2025
- Politics
- Hamilton Spectator
‘The most honest reflection of the country': Inside the 905 — the ridings that helped deny Mark Carney a majority
Vina Viejo, a personal support worker in Richmond Hill, supported Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government with votes and campaign donations for almost a decade. But Viejo's had a change of heart. In last Monday's federal election, she moved her support behind Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and says she convinced her partner and multiple family members — about 15, she estimates, except for one holdout sister — to join her in abandoning the Liberals. 'We were all Liberals — we had the mentality that, because his father opened the immigration, we have to be thankful,' she said. 'But I changed my mind a month before the election. I like Poilievre's 'Canada First' and the housing plan. The people are sick and tired of the Liberals. (Liberal Leader Mark) Carney is a smart guy, but he was behind Trudeau.' Viejo's riding, Richmond Hill South, flipped with her, as Conservative newcomer Vincent Ho ended Liberal MP Majid Jowhari's decade in power. It was part of a 905-belt blue wave that was isolated to parts of the region but strong enough to help deny Carney's Liberals a majority government, and to give them concern for the next federal election that, under a minority government, could come sooner rather than later. Interviews with voters and political observers suggest the Conservatives had success — particularly in York, flipping five seats — by working hard over the years to convince people that their lifestyle is deteriorating thanks to factors including rampant crime, housing unaffordability and rising immigration, and that the only solution was a hard reset from the Liberal past. In many communities, local issues seemed to override fear around the impact of tariffs and U.S. President Donald Trump's rhetoric. 'It felt safer here when we first came to Canada — now you can't walk downtown,' Viejo said. 'And there is mass immigration but no housing or anything to deal with it.' Conservatives made major gains north of Toronto, and to some extent to the west, while the east GTA was more resistant to change. Vina Viejo, a personal support worker in Richmond Hill, supported Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government with votes and campaign donations for almost a decade until this election. 'Some might say the 905's role was diminished this election, but I think it's actually become more important,' Bakir Alazawi, a 905-based communications and political strategist. 'The 905 isn't just where elections are won. It's where the future of Canadian identity is negotiated. 'It's economically anxious, culturally diverse and politically, and it's up for grabs every time. That makes it the most honest reflection of the country.' Canada's political polarization is acutely visible in the Greater Toronto Area's suburban and rural ring — a diverse and fast-growing area of roughly four million people that spans Durham to Halton and has long been seen as a crucial, vote-rich battleground and political bellwether for the country. The message that a change was needed in government seemed to hit especially hard with younger voters such as Zakie Faqiryar, a 28-year-old sales representative who says he is disgusted that his community, Ajax, stayed Liberal and that many Canadians failed to see what he does: that only Poilievre can rescue the country. 'Ten years of Liberals, the same thing over and over, we're not getting anywhere and it's going to get worse,' Faqiryar said. 'They're going to implement different systems to control us more and more. Less affordable housing. Bringing in people who shouldn't be in the country. Liberal, for me now, is anti-Canada,' he said, adding he gets his information from Elon Musk's social platform X rather than mainstream news outlets. Faqiryar says he's so disappointed he's thinking of moving to Saudi Arabia for better work opportunities and lower taxes. Dramatically different results across the region show that it is not a monolith but as diverse as the country itself. In Newmarket-Aurora, previous NDP voter Iman Khwaja says she 'reluctantly' moved to the Liberals to stop Poilievre from becoming prime minister. The recent McGill graduate who works in communications was among those concerned that Poilievre's policies were too close to those of Trump. She said she was relieved by the federal result, although Conservative Sandra Cobena flipped her riding blue, defeating Liberal Jennifer McLachlan. Despite the nationalistic tenure of Carney's campaign, which focused on taking on Trump and his tariffs, it was mostly local issues that resonated with voters in Vaughan, Richmond Hill and even in Brampton, where a 20 per cent jump in voter turnout showed Conservative efforts to bring new voters to the ballot box, including many younger residents, paid off. Shameel Jasvir Singh, news director and one of the hosts at Red-FM, a popular South Asian radio outlet in Brampton, said many who called into his show were supporting Conservatives, including people upset with immigration policies and their impact on quality of life. Shameel Jasvir Singh is the news director and host of Red FM, a popular South Asian radio station in Brampton. He hosts a daily show in Punjabi that has a big following in the community. Before the election he had listeners call in and ran an informal poll and was a bit surprised by how many pro-Conservative voices he heard from. 'In terms of population, overcrowded basements and bad traffic and everything. That was one part. And then the student visa program, Brampton was the victim. And then all of the related problems that came with it. Crime, and then joblessness. Because now in Brampton, our kids, they can't find any summer jobs. So all those issues were big for people in Brampton,' he said. Liberal strategists, who spoke to the Star on background to openly discuss political strategy, said York ridings have always been difficult for the party and are usually closely fought races, prompting visits from both party leaders. One difference for the Conservatives in this election was turnout. In Vaughan for example, Francesco Sorbara, the Liberal candidate received more than 25,000 votes in this election, 4,000 more votes than he received in 2021. But while his Conservative opponent received 19,000 votes in 2021, the newly elected MP Michael Guglielmin received more than 40,000 votes in this campaign. The same was true in Richmond Hill South where Ho won the riding with more than 30,000 votes to Jowhari's 28,991 — a much higher total than Ho received in 2021, 2019 and 2015. In King-Vaughan, Conservative MP Anna Roberts held onto the riding, but doubled her vote count from about 22,000 in 2021 to over 41,000 in this campaign. A Liberal strategist said the Conservatives effectively targeted and focused on younger Canadians, largely second-generation Canadians who felt their economic futures are not as secure as their parents. 'The local issues of public safety, immigration and the disappointment in the last few years of the Trudeau government were front and centre, much more than the tariffs and Trump rhetoric,' said Sorbara. York has seen increasing violent crime, including carjackings, home invasions, shootings and homicides, according to police. Lisa Boyd, who voted for Guglielmin, said, 'There was a really big movement of younger people who feel we needed some hope that we haven't had in a long time here,' she said. 'There's a lot of young families that are struggling and we all wanted to see some change here.' Like others who helped flip Liberal seats, Boyd was 'gutted' there weren't enough flips to elect Poilievre. Like others interviewed, she expressed dismay and disbelief that Toronto voters threw the Liberals a lifeline with 23 of 24 seats. Markham mostly stayed Liberal, except for Markham-Unionville where Conservative candidate Michael Ma had a convincing win over Liberal candidate Peter Yuen — in part because of his ability to personally connect with undecided voters. Alex Yuan, who like Viejo lives in Richmond Hill South, says his friends have 'all been depressed' since the federal Liberal win, after they helped elect a Conservative to address concerns over neighbourhood crime and rising taxes. Richmond Hill resident Alex Yuan says his friends have 'all been depressed' since the results came in on election night showing a Liberal victory. Many of them voted Conservative on Monday night, worried about crime in their neighborhoods. Yuan, a retired entrepreneur who serves as Board Chair on the Retirement Homes Regulatory Authority, said the Conservative candidate, Ho, also worked hard to knock on doors and connect with local voters on issues that matter to them, namely: increasing crime, diminishing public safety and affordability. 'When people worry, they generally come out to vote,' said Yuan, saying he noticed a significantly more engagement in the Chinese community this election. On the other end of the 905 in Durham, there's also a triumvirate of Conservative ridings, two of which have been reliably so for decades. Oshawa, with its huge reliance on the auto sector, is an example of how blue collar workers' views might be changing. From the '60s to the 80s, it voted NDP, sending Ed Broadbent, the leader of the party reliably to Ottawa. It flipped to Liberal in the '90s, but since 2004, it's been Conservative, held by Colin Carrie. Carrie didn't run this time around, and new Conservative candidate Rhonda Kirkland took the seat. Newcomer Conservative Jacob Mantle also took the new riding of York-Durham. Next to it used to be the riding of Durham, which also has been reliably behind the Tories, sending former leader Erin O'Toole to Parliament since 2012. Jamil Jivani took the seat in a byelection in 2024 but ran again in the newly drawn riding of Bowmanville-North Oshawa. Jivani credits Poilievre with making inroads with unions and focusing on their issues, such as the 'Boots Not Suits' messaging. 'I think that really was an important signal, not just to members of those unions, but also to others in the GTA who are working class people, hardworking people, in terms of just showing that the modern Conservative party is open to people who are aspiring for more economic security and more opportunity. I think that was really important in terms of our region.' If York is the area that turned, Brampton is the canary in a Conservative coal mine where potentially future problems lie for the Liberals. There are six ridings with five longtime Liberal incumbents — although due to newly redrawn ridings two were running in new areas. Conservative Amarjeet Gill defeated Kamal Khera. While the other four Liberal MPs won, they were tight races, with the largest winner, Maninder Sidhu in Brampton East over Bob Dosanjh Singh by a margin of 1,800 votes. Brampton Centre's new Liberal candidate Amandeep Sodhi won by 176 votes over Taran Chahal. According to Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara Strategic Insights, this was a trend seen across the country in heavily populated South Asian ridings, with the Conservatives picking up a 15 point gain on the Liberals. The Liberals did hold their own, but most of the rest of their gains came through the collapse of the NDP. 'To Poilievre's credit, he has put a lot of time into outreach. He's done a lot of events, not just in the South Asian community, but other multicultural groups, and communities in Canada the last couple of years, whereas Carney, just by virtue of being very new on the scene, probably hasn't had the same time to kind of build some of those relationships,' said Arnold. 'So, what does that mean for the Liberals in another campaign, 12, 14, 15 months from now?' said Scott Reid, a political analyst and principal at Feschuk Reid. 'It probably means you're going to have to look at that pocket of issues that are going to matter in the 905 and particularly the Bramptons and the Yorks and say, 'What are those issues we can concentrate on over the next 15 months and get rewarded for it? And that's an important part of it, right? The getting rewarded for it.'' Viejo, the Richmond Hill personal support worker who abandoned the Liberals, predicts more 905 residents will follow her lead. 'Carney seemed like more of the same thing. Next time, I think Poilievre will win.' With files from Ryan Tumilty
Toronto Star
03-05-2025
- Politics
- Toronto Star
‘The most honest reflection of the country': Inside the 905 — the ridings that helped deny Mark Carney a majority
Vina Viejo, a personal support worker in Richmond Hill, supported Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government with votes and campaign donations for almost a decade. But Viejo's had a change of heart. In last Monday's federal election, she moved her support behind Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and says she convinced her partner and multiple family members — about 15, she estimates, except for one holdout sister — to join her in abandoning the Liberals. 'We were all Liberals — we had the mentality that, because his father opened the immigration, we have to be thankful,' she said. 'But I changed my mind a month before the election. I like Poilievre's 'Canada First' and the housing plan. The people are sick and tired of the Liberals. (Liberal Leader Mark) Carney is a smart guy, but he was behind Trudeau.' ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Viejo's riding, Richmond Hill South, flipped with her, as Conservative newcomer Vincent Ho ended Liberal MP Majid Jowhari's decade in power. It was part of a 905-belt blue wave that was isolated to parts of the region but strong enough to help deny Carney's Liberals a majority government, and to give them concern for the next federal election that, under a minority government, could come sooner rather than later. Interviews with voters and political observers suggest the Conservatives had success — particularly in York, flipping five seats — by working hard over the years to convince people that their lifestyle is deteriorating thanks to factors including rampant crime, housing unaffordability and rising immigration, and that the only solution was a hard reset from the Liberal past. In many communities, local issues seemed to override fear around the impact of tariffs and U.S. President Donald Trump's rhetoric. 'It felt safer here when we first came to Canada — now you can't walk downtown,' Viejo said. 'And there is mass immigration but no housing or anything to deal with it.' Conservatives made major gains north of Toronto, and to some extent to the west, while the east GTA was more resistant to change. Vina Viejo, a personal support worker in Richmond Hill, supported Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government with votes and campaign donations for almost a decade until this election. Nick Kozak/ Toronto Star 'Some might say the 905's role was diminished this election, but I think it's actually become more important,' Bakir Alazawi, a 905-based communications and political strategist. 'The 905 isn't just where elections are won. It's where the future of Canadian identity is negotiated. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'It's economically anxious, culturally diverse and politically, and it's up for grabs every time. That makes it the most honest reflection of the country.' A political bellwether Canada's political polarization is acutely visible in the Greater Toronto Area's suburban and rural ring — a diverse and fast-growing area of roughly four million people that spans Durham to Halton and has long been seen as a crucial, vote-rich battleground and political bellwether for the country. The message that a change was needed in government seemed to hit especially hard with younger voters such as Zakie Faqiryar, a 28-year-old sales representative who says he is disgusted that his community, Ajax, stayed Liberal and that many Canadians failed to see what he does: that only Poilievre can rescue the country. 'Ten years of Liberals, the same thing over and over, we're not getting anywhere and it's going to get worse,' Faqiryar said. 'They're going to implement different systems to control us more and more. Less affordable housing. Bringing in people who shouldn't be in the country. Liberal, for me now, is anti-Canada,' he said, adding he gets his information from Elon Musk's social platform X rather than mainstream news outlets. Faqiryar says he's so disappointed he's thinking of moving to Saudi Arabia for better work opportunities and lower taxes. Dramatically different results across the region show that it is not a monolith but as diverse as the country itself. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'Our kids ... can't find any summer jobs' In Newmarket-Aurora, previous NDP voter Iman Khwaja says she 'reluctantly' moved to the Liberals to stop Poilievre from becoming prime minister. The recent McGill graduate who works in communications was among those concerned that Poilievre's policies were too close to those of Trump. She said she was relieved by the federal result, although Conservative Sandra Cobena flipped her riding blue, defeating Liberal Jennifer McLachlan. Despite the nationalistic tenure of Carney's campaign, which focused on taking on Trump and his tariffs, it was mostly local issues that resonated with voters in Vaughan, Richmond Hill and even in Brampton, where a 20 per cent jump in voter turnout showed Conservative efforts to bring new voters to the ballot box, including many younger residents, paid off. Shameel Jasvir Singh, news director and one of the hosts at Red-FM, a popular South Asian radio outlet in Brampton, said many who called into his show were supporting Conservatives, including people upset with immigration policies and their impact on quality of life. Shameel Jasvir Singh is the news director and host of Red FM, a popular South Asian radio station in Brampton. He hosts a daily show in Punjabi that has a big following in the community. Before the election he had listeners call in and ran an informal poll and was a bit surprised by how many pro-Conservative voices he heard from. R.J. Johnston/ Toronto Star 'In terms of population, overcrowded basements and bad traffic and everything. That was one part. And then the student visa program, Brampton was the victim. And then all of the related problems that came with it. Crime, and then joblessness. Because now in Brampton, our kids, they can't find any summer jobs. So all those issues were big for people in Brampton,' he said. Liberal strategists, who spoke to the Star on background to openly discuss political strategy, said York ridings have always been difficult for the party and are usually closely fought races, prompting visits from both party leaders. One difference for the Conservatives in this election was turnout. In Vaughan for example, Francesco Sorbara, the Liberal candidate received more than 25,000 votes in this election, 4,000 more votes than he received in 2021. But while his Conservative opponent received 19,000 votes in 2021, the newly elected MP Michael Guglielmin received more than 40,000 votes in this campaign. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The same was true in Richmond Hill South where Ho won the riding with more than 30,000 votes to Jowhari's 28,991 — a much higher total than Ho received in 2021, 2019 and 2015. In King-Vaughan, Conservative MP Anna Roberts held onto the riding, but doubled her vote count from about 22,000 in 2021 to over 41,000 in this campaign. A Liberal strategist said the Conservatives effectively targeted and focused on younger Canadians, largely second-generation Canadians who felt their economic futures are not as secure as their parents. 'The local issues of public safety, immigration and the disappointment in the last few years of the Trudeau government were front and centre, much more than the tariffs and Trump rhetoric,' said Sorbara. York has seen increasing violent crime, including carjackings, home invasions, shootings and homicides, according to police. Lisa Boyd, who voted for Guglielmin, said, 'There was a really big movement of younger people who feel we needed some hope that we haven't had in a long time here,' she said. 'There's a lot of young families that are struggling and we all wanted to see some change here.' Like others who helped flip Liberal seats, Boyd was 'gutted' there weren't enough flips to elect Poilievre. Like others interviewed, she expressed dismay and disbelief that Toronto voters threw the Liberals a lifeline with 23 of 24 seats. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Markham mostly stayed Liberal, except for Markham-Unionville where Conservative candidate Michael Ma had a convincing win over Liberal candidate Peter Yuen — in part because of his ability to personally connect with undecided voters. 'An important signal' Alex Yuan, who like Viejo lives in Richmond Hill South, says his friends have 'all been depressed' since the federal Liberal win, after they helped elect a Conservative to address concerns over neighbourhood crime and rising taxes. Richmond Hill resident Alex Yuan says his friends have 'all been depressed' since the results came in on election night showing a Liberal victory. Many of them voted Conservative on Monday night, worried about crime in their neighborhoods. R.J. Johnston/ Toronto Star Yuan, a retired entrepreneur who serves as Board Chair on the Retirement Homes Regulatory Authority, said the Conservative candidate, Ho, also worked hard to knock on doors and connect with local voters on issues that matter to them, namely: increasing crime, diminishing public safety and affordability. 'When people worry, they generally come out to vote,' said Yuan, saying he noticed a significantly more engagement in the Chinese community this election. On the other end of the 905 in Durham, there's also a triumvirate of Conservative ridings, two of which have been reliably so for decades. Oshawa, with its huge reliance on the auto sector, is an example of how blue collar workers' views might be changing. From the '60s to the 80s, it voted NDP, sending Ed Broadbent, the leader of the party reliably to Ottawa. It flipped to Liberal in the '90s, but since 2004, it's been Conservative, held by Colin Carrie. Carrie didn't run this time around, and new Conservative candidate Rhonda Kirkland took the seat. Newcomer Conservative Jacob Mantle also took the new riding of York-Durham. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Next to it used to be the riding of Durham, which also has been reliably behind the Tories, sending former leader Erin O'Toole to Parliament since 2012. Jamil Jivani took the seat in a byelection in 2024 but ran again in the newly drawn riding of Bowmanville-North Oshawa. Jivani credits Poilievre with making inroads with unions and focusing on their issues, such as the 'Boots Not Suits' messaging. 'I think that really was an important signal, not just to members of those unions, but also to others in the GTA who are working class people, hardworking people, in terms of just showing that the modern Conservative party is open to people who are aspiring for more economic security and more opportunity. I think that was really important in terms of our region.' A sign of future Liberal woes? If York is the area that turned, Brampton is the canary in a Conservative coal mine where potentially future problems lie for the Liberals. There are six ridings with five longtime Liberal incumbents — although due to newly redrawn ridings two were running in new areas. 'It does really come to down to the 905': Conservatives gain key seats in Greater Toronto Conservative Amarjeet Gill defeated Kamal Khera. While the other four Liberal MPs won, they were tight races, with the largest winner, Maninder Sidhu in Brampton East over Bob Dosanjh Singh by a margin of 1,800 votes. Brampton Centre's new Liberal candidate Amandeep Sodhi won by 176 votes over Taran Chahal. According to Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara Strategic Insights, this was a trend seen across the country in heavily populated South Asian ridings, with the Conservatives picking up a 15 point gain on the Liberals. The Liberals did hold their own, but most of the rest of their gains came through the collapse of the NDP. 'To Poilievre's credit, he has put a lot of time into outreach. He's done a lot of events, not just in the South Asian community, but other multicultural groups, and communities in Canada the last couple of years, whereas Carney, just by virtue of being very new on the scene, probably hasn't had the same time to kind of build some of those relationships,' said Arnold. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'So, what does that mean for the Liberals in another campaign, 12, 14, 15 months from now?' said Scott Reid, a political analyst and principal at Feschuk Reid. 'It probably means you're going to have to look at that pocket of issues that are going to matter in the 905 and particularly the Bramptons and the Yorks and say, 'What are those issues we can concentrate on over the next 15 months and get rewarded for it? And that's an important part of it, right? The getting rewarded for it.'' Viejo, the Richmond Hill personal support worker who abandoned the Liberals, predicts more 905 residents will follow her lead. 'Carney seemed like more of the same thing. Next time, I think Poilievre will win.' With files from Ryan Tumilty
Ottawa Citizen
01-05-2025
- Business
- Ottawa Citizen
Adam: 'Canada First' means free trade between provinces
Elections are fought to be won and lost, and now that Canadians have elected Mark Carney and the Liberals to lead us through the turbulent waters ahead, our collective responsibility is to rally around him to succeed. Article content Article content As disappointed as Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are for suffering such a crushing defeat when it was all there for the taking, they must live up to their Canada First slogan. The danger Donald Trump poses requires all politicians to put the country first. Article content Article content We can ignore Trump's annexation threats, but the U.S. president can cause significant damage to our economy and quality of life, and we must be united in fighting back. And the fightback must begin at home, first by tearing down the interprovincial trade barriers that, without doubt, are holding back economic progress. Article content A 2020 study by Statistics Canada found that the burden internal trade barriers impose is equivalent to a 6.9 per cent tariff cost on goods and services. Free interprovincial trade, reports suggest, can boost the economy by more than $200 billion annually. Article content If ever there were a time to unlock the economic windfall of freer trade, the time is now. Provincial and territorial premiers cannot complain about Trump tariffs when they have erected trade barriers against one another that stifle economic growth. Article content If ever there were a time to unlock the economic windfall of (internal) freer trade, the time is now. Article content Yes, we are facing an affordability and housing crisis, and many Canadians can hardly make ends meet. But all that fades in comparison if the bottom falls out of the economy, which is what Trump intends. You can only solve these problems if you have a strong economy. Let's start boosting that economy by freeing up internal trade. Article content Article content Carney said before the campaign that he had a standing agreement with provincial leaders for free trade across the country by Canada Day, and we expect nothing less. Already, the federal government has announced changes to its own policies that would facilitate freer trade, and the provinces and territories must now respond. Article content Article content As he has done throughout the tariff crisis, Ontario Premier Doug Ford has led the way with the introduction of legislation to eliminate internal barriers, open up trade and drive economic growth. Regulators would be allowed to recognize goods, services and workers of reciprocating provinces and territories. Ontario has signed agreements with New Brunswick and Nova Scotia to remove barriers. Article content Ontario is also considering measures to allow health professionals to work more easily in Ontario. 'With Donald Trump taking direct aim at Canada's economy, it can't be business as usual,' Ford said. 'These last few months have made it clear, as premiers, we need to work together to build a more united, more competitive, and more self-reliant Canadian economy that creates jobs and prosperity here at home.'
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Poilievre projected to lose seat in Canadian election
Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada's conservative party, has lost his seat in Carleton, Ontario, according to projections. CBC News projected a 19-point surge for the Liberal Party's candidate in Carleton, a seat Mr Poilievre had held since 2004. It caps off a disastrous night for Canada's Conservative party, which lost the election to Mark Carney's Liberal Party. Mr Poilievre's party had been set to oust the Liberal Party when it was led by Justin Trudeau. But the Liberals surged in the polls once Mr Trudeau resigned and Donald Trump returned to the White House. The US president's trade war upended the global economy and changed the dynamic of the Canadian election. The Conservative leader struggled to shake the image of being tied to the Maga movement after running a 'Canada First' campaign. Thanks for following our live coverage of Canada's election. It has now ended. Here's a reminder of what happened overnight: The Liberal party won the national election, capping off a remarkable comeback just months after they looked set for total wipeout. Mark Carney declared victory at around 1.30am Ottawa time, vowing to prevent Donald Trump from 'breaking' Canada. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, is projected to lose his seat, which should be confirmed in the next few hours. It is unclear whether the Liberals have won enough seats to form a majority. If not, they will have to govern as part of a coalition, as was the case under Justin Trudeau's final term. Liberal MP Bruce Fanjoy has thanked voters after he won the seat of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who had held his seat in Carleton since 2004. 'To all the people of Carleton, as your new Member of Parliament, I'll work to bring us together. We are all Canadian,' Mr Fanjoy said on social media. 'We have to look out for ourselves, and we have to take care of each other. Let's get to work.' Nato chief Mark Rutte has said he looked forward to building an 'even stronger' alliance with Canada after Mark Carney won the national election. 'Congratulations to Prime Minister Mark Carney,' Mr Rutte said on X. 'Canada is a valued member of Nato. I look forward to working together to build an even stronger, fairer alliance - investing more in defence and ramping up industrial production so we have what we need to stay safe.' During and after the run-up to the 2010 general election, David Cameron's British Conservatives looked to Mark Harper's Canadian ones as a model to learn from. In particular, they studied the work of Jason Kenney, Harper's Minister for Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism – 'the smiling Buddha', whose charm, emotional intelligence and persistence had helped to shift large numbers of ethnic minority voters from Canada's liberals to its Conservatives. Delegations flew back and forth across the Atlantic. This wasn't unusual. Tony Blair sat at the feet of Bill Clinton. Cameron also sought to learn from the 'compassionate conservatism' that originally helped to get George W Bush elected. Only last year, Keir Starmer mimicked the low risk, safety first election campaign that Anthony Albanese's Labor party fought successfully in Australia three years ago. These links, alliances and visits are evidence of a shared political culture – some of the ties that bind us to the Anglosphere. So you can be sure that delegations will soon be on their way from Downing Street to Rideau Cottage, Harrington Lake, Rockcliffe Park – or wherever Mark Carney, the former Bank of England Governor who yesterday pulled off a narrow election win for the Liberals in Canada, chooses to settle down. President Emmanuel Macron has congratulated Mark Carney on his election win, saying he believed the Liberal Party leader embodied a 'strong Canada'. 'You embody a strong Canada in the face of the great challenges of our time. France looks forward to further strengthening the friendship that binds our countries. Eager to work alongside you,' he said on X. Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada's conservative party, has lost his seat in Carleton, Ontario, according to projections. Mr Poilievre, 45, and the leader of Canada's opposition, for many months rode a wave of anti-elite populism that helped oust Justin Trudeau, who had become increasingly unpopular. But his popularity fell sharply following the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Volodymyr Zelensky has congratulated Mark Carney on his election win, expressing hope the two countries would forge stronger ties under his premiership. 'We are sincerely grateful for Canada's principled leadership in supporting Ukraine... We are confident that our partnership will only grow stronger in our shared pursuit of peace, justice, and security,' the Ukrainian president said in a post on X. Partying in Ottawa has continued late into the night after the Liberal party won a fourth consecutive term in office. Mark Carney was seen dancing to the Canadian band Down With Webster along with the party's supporters. Just a few short months ago, the Liberal party in Canada, nearing the end of its third term, looked set for electoral wipeout. But one man changed it all: Donald Trump. His return to the White House and threats to make Canada the 51st state changed the dynamics of the election, as did the resignation of Justin Trudeau as prime minister and Liberal party leader. He was replaced by Mark Carney, widely seen as an outsider given that he had not held an official role in politics before. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, on the other hand, had spent years cultivating his image in a similar vein to Maga. China said it was open to improving ties with Canada after Mark Carney won the country's election. Guo Jiakun, its foreign ministry spokesman, said: 'China is willing to develop China-Canada relations on the basis of mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit.' Beijing stopped short of congratulating Mr Carney, but said: 'China's position on China-Canada relations is consistent and clear.' Ties between Beijing and Ottawa have been tense in recent years. The arrest of a senior Chinese telecom executive on a US warrant in Vancouver in December 2018 and Beijing's retaliatory detention of two Canadians on espionage charges plunged relations into a deep freeze. Credit: X/@jonathanwalditn/ @Gray_Mackenzie Mark Carney was always reluctant to enter the world of politics, according to Justin Trudeau. The former premier, who was forced to resign earlier this year as his approval ratings nosedived, approached him last year and asked him to join his cabinet. Mr Carney, 60, declined to do so. 'He would be an outstanding addition at a time when Canadians need good people to step up in politics,' Mr Trudeau said last summer. Less than a year later, after Mr Trudeau quit under pressure from colleagues who feared Canada's Liberal Party would be defeated with him as its leader, Mr Carney joined the contest to replace him. He overcame several challengers, the most significant of them being Chrystia Freeland, the former finance minister, to win in a landslide and become leader, and therefore prime minister. Sir Keir Starmer has congratulated Mark Carney on his election victory. The Prime Minister said: Congratulations to Mark Carney on your election victory. The UK and Canada are the closest of allies, partners and friends. With your leadership, and personal ties to the UK, I know the relationship between our two countries will continue to grow. Our partnership is based on shared history and values, with a shared sovereign, and I look forward to strengthening our ties following our successful meeting in Downing Street last month. We will work together to deepen our economic relationship to deliver security for hardworking people in the UK and Canada – which we were both elected to do. I welcome your leadership on international issues, and I know we will continue to work closely on defence, security, trade and investment as we look ahead to the G7 Leaders' Summit in Kananaskis in June. If you're just joining us this morning, here's a recap of what happened overnight as it hits 2.30am in Ottawa. Mark Carney has declared victory in the election. The Liberal party is projected to win and form another government, capping off their remarkable electoral turnaround. However, it remains unclear whether the Liberals have won enough seats to form a majority, with voting still ongoing. Donald Trump dominated Mr Carney's victory speech, as he did the election. Mr Carney said the US president wanted to 'break' Canada so it can become the 51st state. Conceding the election, Conservative Pierre Poilievre said he had learned 'hard lessons'. He could yet lose his seat in Carleton, Ottawa. Credit: Reuters Mark Carney has said Canada's old relationship with the United States is 'over'. 'The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for our country for decades, is over,' he told supporters after declaring victory in Ottawa. Donald Trump was a central figure in the Canadian election amid threatens to make the country America's 51st state. Mr Carney, in his victory speech, called for unity and promised to govern with humility. And, mixing French and English, he hammered the theme that dominated the election, setting out how he would deal with President Donald Trump. 'We are over the shock of the American betrayal but we cannot forget its lessons,' he said. 'We have to look out for ourselves, and above all, we have to take care of each other,' he said. 'When i sit down with President Trump it will be to discuss the future and security relationship between two sovereign nations.' That line brought the biggest cheer of the night, before he took on a more sombre tone, warning that there would be tough times ahead. 'The point is that we can give ourselves far more than the Americans could ever take away,' he said. 'But even given that, I want to be clear, the coming days and months will be challenging, and they will call for some sacrifices, but we will share those sacrifices by supporting our workers and our businesses.' A victorious Mark Carney took the stage in Ottawa in front of supporters a little after 1.20am local time (6.20am GMT). He congratulated Pierre Poilievre on a 'hard-fought, fair campaign'. But he was in the mood to celebrate what had seemed a very unlikely win just a few weeks ago. 'Who's ready? Who is ready to stand up for Canada with me?' he asked to cheers. 'And who is ready? Who is ready to build Canada strong?' Mark Carney is set to address supporters shortly from Ottawa. Mr Poilievre was upbeat even as he conceded defeat and congratulated 'Prime Minister Carney'. He signalled that he has no intention of stepping down despite falling short in an election he was a shoo-in to win at the start of the year. 'Some of you might be disappointed that change did not get over the finish line tonight,' he said. 'Change takes time. Most of all, it requires that we never give up.' Pierre Poilievre is addressing supporters in Ottawa. 'Now my message to Canadians … the promise that was made to me and to all of you is that anybody from anywhere could achieve anything,' he said. 'Through hard work, you can get a great life, get a nice, affordable home on a safe street. My purpose in politics is and will continue to be to restore that commitment.' Mr Poilievre is interrupted at times by chants of, 'Bring it home.' He tells his supporters they can take heart from increasing their share of the vote. 'We are cognisant of the fact that we didn't quite get over the finish line. We know that change is needed, but change is hard to come by,' he said. 'It takes time. It takes work, and that's why we have to learn the lessons of tonight so that we can have an even better result the next time that Canadians decide the future.' How foolish are Canadian voters? They have just kept a politically inexperienced prime minister and largely discredited Liberal minority government in power because of their frustration with a US president. That, in a nutshell, is what happened in Monday's election in the Great White North. Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, entered the Liberal Party leadership race soon after Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January. It seemed like a no-win situation. Trudeau had thoroughly destroyed his party and political brand with his mediocre, ineffective and delusional leadership. His Liberal government was also in tatters, down as much as 25 points to Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives as recently as February. Carney was obviously more intelligent and capable than Trudeau, but he didn't bring much to the table, either. Poilievre was the superior choice for Prime Minister. What happened? Read Michael Taube's opinion piece here Credit: Reuters The Liberals were leading or elected in 161 districts, followed by the Conservatives with 150, with votes still being counted. Mark Carney's party needs to win 172 seats in order to achieve a majority that would allow them to govern without support from a smaller party. The westernmost province of British Columbia, where polls closed last, could decide whether Liberals fall short of a majority government. Liberal Party workers at a hockey arena in Ottawa erupted in cheers as Canadian news organisations called the election for the Liberals only 11 minutes after polls closed. Chants of 'Carney, Carney, Carney,' echoed around the TD Place Arena. Danielle, a party worker from Ottawa who wore a 'Canada Strong' T-shirt, said Mr Carney was enough of a change from Justin Trudeau to offer Canadians a fresh start. 'Canadians needed someone new but competent,' she said. Celebrations died down almost as soon as they had started. The results were too close to tell whether Mr Carney had won a majority or whether he would need the support of other parties to govern. The NDP has won its first seat - a rare moment of good news in what has otherwise been a shattering night for the party. Alexandre Boulerice, who kept hold of his riding of Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, conceded that the NDP had a 'rough night' and claimed Donald Trump had 'changed everything'. 'At least it's not a Conservative government, we've shown in the past we can negotiate with the Liberals,' he told CBC, the Canadian broadcaster. Chrystia Freeland, the former finance minister whom Mark Carney defeated to claim the Liberal leadership, has kept her University-Rosedale seat in Ontario. Mark Carney will win Canada's federal election but fall short of a majority government, according to a projection by CTV News. The result is an extraordinary moment for Mark Carney. His Liberal Party was down and out under Justin Trudeau, trailing the Conservatives by more than 20 points in the polls at the start of the year. He took over an unpopular government yet managed to secure a fourth consecutive term for the party. The next question is whether he can win the 172 seats he needs to form a majority government. That may not be known for some time and could depend on results from British Columbia, where polls closed last. Mr Carney urged voters to return him with a majority, so that he could form the sort of strong government that could stand up to President Donald Trump and his threats. Yves-Francois Blanchet, the leader of Bloc Quebecois, has been re-elected as MP for Beloeil-Chambly. It has been a damaging night for his party which has seen its vote share squeezed by Mark Carney's Liberals. So far, its MPs have won six seats and are ahead in 17. The crowd at Liberal Party HQ in Ottawa erupted in cheers as the national broadcaster CBC called the election for the Liberal Party and Mark Carney at 10:11pm. They chanted: 'Carney, Carney, Carney.' Danielle, a party worker from Ottawa, said Mr Carney was enough of a change from Justin Trudeau to offer Canadians a fresh start. 'Canadians needed someone new but competent,' she said. The result came through so early that the hall is still only half full, with journalists almost outnumbering Liberal Party supporters. One of the big stories of this election will be how Canada's multi-party system collapsed into a two-horse race. Liberals and Conservatives have both increased their share of the vote from 2021, while the smaller parties have seen their share disintegrate. Again that seems to be down to the Trump effect, as Canadians look to big parties and heavy hitters to protect their sovereignty, The leftist New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Québécois seem to be faring worst, and are in a battle for their politicalsurvival. Liberals in particular seem to be picking up votes from Bloc Quebecois in Quebec. And the headline numbers show the Liberal Party, so far, winning 50.2 percent of the vote, with the Conservatives on 43.7 percent, at this early stage of results. Mark Carney is now the overwhelming favourite to remain as Canadian prime minister, according to betting markets. Data from Polymarket shows he is now has a 97 per cent chance to stay in office, compared to just three per cent for Pierre Poilievre. With results now trickling in, Liberal Party workers are starting to file into the TD Place Arena for their party in Ottawa. Children in red 'Canada Strong' T-shirts are among the crowd that is still only a few dozen strong. One party worker, Teb, was sipping on a Budweiser as he described the mood as a winning one. 'It is sovereignty that will decide this election,' he said, describing how Mr Trump's intervention had been the deciding factor. The atmosphere is sedate so far. Maybe this is how Canadians throw a party, or maybe Liberals are showing signs of nerves after a couple of seats flipped the wrong way. As of 10pm ET, the Liberals have been elected in 23 seats and are leading in 79, with 50.7 per cent of the vote. The Conservatives have taken nine seats, are ahead in 66, and have 38.6 per cent. The Liberals have taken their first seat from the Conservatives. CBC is projecting that Mark Carney's party has flipped South Shore-St Margarets from blue to red. Polls have now closed in British Columbia and the Yukon, meaning ballots will soon be tallied in another 44 seats. Polls are now closed across Canada. The Conservatives have taken a second Liberal seat in Newfoundland, according to news wire The Canadian Press. Pierre Poilievre's party has taken Terra Nova-The Peninsulas in another blow to Mark Carney, it reports. The seat has not been called by public broadcaster CBC. The NDP have taken a lead in their first seat, in what looks set to be a dismal night for the party as its vote is eaten into by the Liberals and Conservatives. Bloc Quebecois, the Quebec nationalist party, have a lead in 12 seats but are yet to take any. The majority of polls have closed across Canada. Results from 266 seats from Quebec to the Rocky Mountains, many of them key battlegrounds, will soon be tallied. Fred DeLorey, a former Conservative campaign manager, tells The Telegraph his party has seen a 'solid start' and 'big increase for us in support' in early results. So far, the only seat to change hands is Long Range Mountains, which flipped from the Liberals to Conservatives in what Mark Carney may see as a cause for concern. Referring to the constituencies where results are being tallied, Mr DeLorey added: 'We came into this election with eight seats and are now elected or leading in ten, which bodes well for the rest of the country.' Dominic LeBlanc, a Canadian cabinet minister who has been re-elected as Liberal MP, suggests that third-parties being squeezed could 'lead to a number of Liberal wins, Liberal pick-ups in terms of seats'. He conceded that Liberals would rather be further ahead of the Conservatives but added: 'There are a lot of votes still to be counted... we should still be very confident in Mr Carney's campaign.' Wayne Long, the first Liberal MP to call for Justin Trudeau's resignation, has been re-elected to the riding of Saint John-Rothesay. 'People sadly were tired of Justin Trudeau, they wanted a change, so Mark Carney came in - new vision, economic leader,' he told CBC. 'Canadians looked for leadership, Canadians knew the threat we were under with respect to Donald Trump and Mark Carney was the difference maker. We heard it door after door.' Mr Trudeau stepping down 'totally turned it around', he added. Conservative Carol Antsey has taken Long Range Mountains from the Liberals, flipping the seat from red to blue, in a potential warning sign to Mark Carney's party. While the Liberals lead the Conservatives nine ridings to three so far, they are yet to gain any from their rivals. Pierre Poilievre's chances of becoming Canadian prime minister have surged in the last half hour, according to betting markets. At 8pm ET, Mark Carney was a heavy favourite to stay in office at 78 per cent, data from Polymarket shows, but this has since narrowed to a 59 per cent chance. Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives have had their first win of the night, with Clifford Small holding his seat of Central Newfoundland. Mr Small told CBC that the most important issues on the doorstep were the cost of living and crime - apparently downplaying suggestions that Donald Trump's trade war had upended the election. Elections Canada's website is down for some users. Although its main results page is reportedly working, users are unable to look up voting numbers in their local constituency or riding, as they are called in Canada. Liberals are projected to hold two more seats - Cape Spear and Acadie Bathurst - taking their tally to three wins, at this early stage of the night. The Liberals have had their first win of the night with Philip Earle retaining his seat in Labrador, according to a projection by CBC. The Liberal Party is holding its election night party at the TD Place Arena in Ottawa, which is used for lower league ice hockey games (home of the Ottawa 67s of the Ontario Hockey League and the Ottawa Charge of the Professional Women's Hockey League) and skating. Events are expected to kick off at about 9:30pm Eastern time, when most polls have closed. But crews have installed a red carpet on stage, setup a lectern for Mark Carney, and put up giant Canadian flags. All that's needed now is a crowd. Doug Ford, the Conservative premier of Ontario, has claimed that Pierre Poilievre failed to adapt after Donald Trump upended the Canadian election. In an interview with Politico published hours before polls closed, Mr Ford - who has emerged as one of the US president's leading critics north of the border - also criticised the Conservative leader for failing to reach out to him and said he appeared to be heading to defeat against Mark Carney. Asked if Mr Poilievre had failed to adjust to a 'Trump-centred election', the Ontario premier replied: '100 per cent. I ran my whole election on Trump and protecting Ontarians, protecting communities and jobs and businesses.' He said he told the Conservative leader in a phone call, paraphrasing Bill Clinton's strategist James Carville: 'It's the tariffs, stupid.' Mr Ford added that he did not understand why Mr Poilievre had failed to build bridges with premiers and local mayors, telling Politico: 'It's common sense when you're in an election, you reach across to as many people as you can.' The Liberals have taken a lead in six of the nine seats reporting results, while the Conservatives are ahead in the remaining three. However, Pierre Poilievre's party have more than 50 per cent of the vote, compared to 44 per cent for the Liberals and four per cent for the NDP. Pierre Poilievre, who is hoping to end the Liberals' decade in power tonight, voted in Ottowa earlier today. 'We voted for Change. Now it's your turn,' he wrote on social media. Polls have now closed in the Maritime provinces, which is composed of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island. As early results trickle in from Newfoundland and Labrador, the Conservatives have taken a lead in two seats, while the Liberals are ahead in one. The first results are in and the Conservatives have taken a lead in Central Newfoundland, where Clifford Small leads 108 votes to Liberal Lynette Powell's 30. The polls narrowed considerably in the final couple of weeks. At one stage, Mark Carney's Liberal Party held a double-digit lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party. But by the time Abacus Data published its final poll at midday on Sunday, that lead was down to just two points. It suggested that voters were looking beyond the impact of Donald Trump (whose intervention had helped Mr Carney and his message that he offered a safe pair of hands) and were thinking again about a cost-of-living crisis that had seen house prices soar out of reach of first-time buyers. Perhaps Canada was after all ready to dump the Liberals out of power after a decade. However, a two-point lead is perhaps not as close as it looks. Much of Mr Poilievre's support is concentrated in the Conservative heartland of Alberta. Racking up an extra few points in the polls just means turning Alberta an even deeper shade of blue. In contrast, Liberal votes tend to be more efficient. And a point or two lead likely means picking up the crucial seats in the Toronto suburbs and in Quebec that will decide this election. The first polls in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada's most easterly province, have now closed. Mark Carney's poll lead in Canada's election race has narrowed to just two points, hours before voters cast their ballots on Monday. In a campaign dominated by Donald Trump's threats to annex the country, the Liberal prime minister began the month six points ahead of Conservative populist Pierre Poilievre, who is seen as sympathetic to the US president. However, a poll by Abacus Data published on Sunday, found that the Liberals were on 41 per cent of the vote compared with 39 per cent for Conservatives. Read the full article from Rob Crilly, our chief US correspondent, here. Mark Carney has posted a picture of himself voting in Ottowa, giving a thumbs up to the cameras in a confident display. 'I just voted. Make sure you do, too,' the Canadian prime minister wrote on social media, adding the hashtag: '#CanadaStrong.' He posted the same message seconds earlier in French. President Donald Trump's attacks on Canada upended the election race. And he couldn't resist trolling voters on Election Day, with a Truth Social post that seemed to suggest they should vote for him. 'Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, quadruple in size, with zero tariffs or taxes, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America,' he wrote. Pierre Polievre, the populist Conservative candidate, had looked odds on to end a decade of Liberal rule, until Mr Trump weighed in at the start of the year. His double digit poll lead evaporated as Mark Carney, the Liberal leader, positioned himself as the best candidate to defend Canada against Mr Trump's attentions. Hello and welcome to the blog. We'll be bringing you live updates from Canada's federal election. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. 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