Poilievre projected to lose seat in Canadian election

Yahoo

29-04-2025

Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada's conservative party, has lost his seat in Carleton, Ontario, according to projections.
CBC News projected a 19-point surge for the Liberal Party's candidate in Carleton, a seat Mr Poilievre had held since 2004.
It caps off a disastrous night for Canada's Conservative party, which lost the election to Mark Carney's Liberal Party.
Mr Poilievre's party had been set to oust the Liberal Party when it was led by Justin Trudeau.
But the Liberals surged in the polls once Mr Trudeau resigned and Donald Trump returned to the White House.
The US president's trade war upended the global economy and changed the dynamic of the Canadian election.
The Conservative leader struggled to shake the image of being tied to the Maga movement after running a 'Canada First' campaign.
Thanks for following our live coverage of Canada's election.
It has now ended. Here's a reminder of what happened overnight:
The Liberal party won the national election, capping off a remarkable comeback just months after they looked set for total wipeout.
Mark Carney declared victory at around 1.30am Ottawa time, vowing to prevent Donald Trump from 'breaking' Canada.
Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, is projected to lose his seat, which should be confirmed in the next few hours.
It is unclear whether the Liberals have won enough seats to form a majority. If not, they will have to govern as part of a coalition, as was the case under Justin Trudeau's final term.
Liberal MP Bruce Fanjoy has thanked voters after he won the seat of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who had held his seat in Carleton since 2004.
'To all the people of Carleton, as your new Member of Parliament, I'll work to bring us together. We are all Canadian,' Mr Fanjoy said on social media.
'We have to look out for ourselves, and we have to take care of each other. Let's get to work.'
Nato chief Mark Rutte has said he looked forward to building an 'even stronger' alliance with Canada after Mark Carney won the national election.
'Congratulations to Prime Minister Mark Carney,' Mr Rutte said on X. 'Canada is a valued member of Nato. I look forward to working together to build an even stronger, fairer alliance - investing more in defence and ramping up industrial production so we have what we need to stay safe.'
During and after the run-up to the 2010 general election, David Cameron's British Conservatives looked to Mark Harper's Canadian ones as a model to learn from.
In particular, they studied the work of Jason Kenney, Harper's Minister for Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism – 'the smiling Buddha', whose charm, emotional intelligence and persistence had helped to shift large numbers of ethnic minority voters from Canada's liberals to its Conservatives. Delegations flew back and forth across the Atlantic.
This wasn't unusual. Tony Blair sat at the feet of Bill Clinton. Cameron also sought to learn from the 'compassionate conservatism' that originally helped to get George W Bush elected.
Only last year, Keir Starmer mimicked the low risk, safety first election campaign that Anthony Albanese's Labor party fought successfully in Australia three years ago.
These links, alliances and visits are evidence of a shared political culture – some of the ties that bind us to the Anglosphere.
So you can be sure that delegations will soon be on their way from Downing Street to Rideau Cottage, Harrington Lake, Rockcliffe Park – or wherever Mark Carney, the former Bank of England Governor who yesterday pulled off a narrow election win for the Liberals in Canada, chooses to settle down.
President Emmanuel Macron has congratulated Mark Carney on his election win, saying he believed the Liberal Party leader embodied a 'strong Canada'.
'You embody a strong Canada in the face of the great challenges of our time. France looks forward to further strengthening the friendship that binds our countries. Eager to work alongside you,' he said on X.
Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada's conservative party, has lost his seat in Carleton, Ontario, according to projections.
Mr Poilievre, 45, and the leader of Canada's opposition, for many months rode a wave of anti-elite populism that helped oust Justin Trudeau, who had become increasingly unpopular.
But his popularity fell sharply following the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
Volodymyr Zelensky has congratulated Mark Carney on his election win, expressing hope the two countries would forge stronger ties under his premiership.
'We are sincerely grateful for Canada's principled leadership in supporting Ukraine... We are confident that our partnership will only grow stronger in our shared pursuit of peace, justice, and security,' the Ukrainian president said in a post on X.
Partying in Ottawa has continued late into the night after the Liberal party won a fourth consecutive term in office.
Mark Carney was seen dancing to the Canadian band Down With Webster along with the party's supporters.
Just a few short months ago, the Liberal party in Canada, nearing the end of its third term, looked set for electoral wipeout.
But one man changed it all: Donald Trump.
His return to the White House and threats to make Canada the 51st state changed the dynamics of the election, as did the resignation of Justin Trudeau as prime minister and Liberal party leader.
He was replaced by Mark Carney, widely seen as an outsider given that he had not held an official role in politics before. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, on the other hand, had spent years cultivating his image in a similar vein to Maga.
China said it was open to improving ties with Canada after Mark Carney won the country's election.
Guo Jiakun, its foreign ministry spokesman, said: 'China is willing to develop China-Canada relations on the basis of mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit.'
Beijing stopped short of congratulating Mr Carney, but said: 'China's position on China-Canada relations is consistent and clear.'
Ties between Beijing and Ottawa have been tense in recent years.
The arrest of a senior Chinese telecom executive on a US warrant in Vancouver in December 2018 and Beijing's retaliatory detention of two Canadians on espionage charges plunged relations into a deep freeze.
Credit: X/@jonathanwalditn/ @Gray_Mackenzie
Mark Carney was always reluctant to enter the world of politics, according to Justin Trudeau.
The former premier, who was forced to resign earlier this year as his approval ratings nosedived, approached him last year and asked him to join his cabinet. Mr Carney, 60, declined to do so.
'He would be an outstanding addition at a time when Canadians need good people to step up in politics,' Mr Trudeau said last summer.
Less than a year later, after Mr Trudeau quit under pressure from colleagues who feared Canada's Liberal Party would be defeated with him as its leader, Mr Carney joined the contest to replace him.
He overcame several challengers, the most significant of them being Chrystia Freeland, the former finance minister, to win in a landslide and become leader, and therefore prime minister.
Sir Keir Starmer has congratulated Mark Carney on his election victory.
The Prime Minister said:
Congratulations to Mark Carney on your election victory. The UK and Canada are the closest of allies, partners and friends. With your leadership, and personal ties to the UK, I know the relationship between our two countries will continue to grow.
Our partnership is based on shared history and values, with a shared sovereign, and I look forward to strengthening our ties following our successful meeting in Downing Street last month.
We will work together to deepen our economic relationship to deliver security for hardworking people in the UK and Canada – which we were both elected to do.
I welcome your leadership on international issues, and I know we will continue to work closely on defence, security, trade and investment as we look ahead to the G7 Leaders' Summit in Kananaskis in June.
If you're just joining us this morning, here's a recap of what happened overnight as it hits 2.30am in Ottawa.
Mark Carney has declared victory in the election. The Liberal party is projected to win and form another government, capping off their remarkable electoral turnaround.
However, it remains unclear whether the Liberals have won enough seats to form a majority, with voting still ongoing.
Donald Trump dominated Mr Carney's victory speech, as he did the election. Mr Carney said the US president wanted to 'break' Canada so it can become the 51st state.
Conceding the election, Conservative Pierre Poilievre said he had learned 'hard lessons'. He could yet lose his seat in Carleton, Ottawa.
Credit: Reuters
Mark Carney has said Canada's old relationship with the United States is 'over'.
'The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for our country for decades, is over,' he told supporters after declaring victory in Ottawa.
Donald Trump was a central figure in the Canadian election amid threatens to make the country America's 51st state.
Mr Carney, in his victory speech, called for unity and promised to govern with humility. And, mixing French and English, he hammered the theme that dominated the election, setting out how he would deal with President Donald Trump.
'We are over the shock of the American betrayal but we cannot forget its lessons,' he said. 'We have to look out for ourselves, and above all, we have to take care of each other,' he said. 'When i sit down with President Trump it will be to discuss the future and security relationship between two sovereign nations.'
That line brought the biggest cheer of the night, before he took on a more sombre tone, warning that there would be tough times ahead.
'The point is that we can give ourselves far more than the Americans could ever take away,' he said. 'But even given that, I want to be clear, the coming days and months will be challenging, and they will call for some sacrifices, but we will share those sacrifices by supporting our workers and our businesses.'
A victorious Mark Carney took the stage in Ottawa in front of supporters a little after 1.20am local time (6.20am GMT).
He congratulated Pierre Poilievre on a 'hard-fought, fair campaign'.
But he was in the mood to celebrate what had seemed a very unlikely win just a few weeks ago.
'Who's ready? Who is ready to stand up for Canada with me?' he asked to cheers. 'And who is ready? Who is ready to build Canada strong?'
Mark Carney is set to address supporters shortly from Ottawa.
Mr Poilievre was upbeat even as he conceded defeat and congratulated 'Prime Minister Carney'.
He signalled that he has no intention of stepping down despite falling short in an election he was a shoo-in to win at the start of the year.
'Some of you might be disappointed that change did not get over the finish line tonight,' he said.
'Change takes time. Most of all, it requires that we never give up.'
Pierre Poilievre is addressing supporters in Ottawa.
'Now my message to Canadians … the promise that was made to me and to all of you is that anybody from anywhere could achieve anything,' he said.
'Through hard work, you can get a great life, get a nice, affordable home on a safe street. My purpose in politics is and will continue to be to restore that commitment.'
Mr Poilievre is interrupted at times by chants of, 'Bring it home.'
He tells his supporters they can take heart from increasing their share of the vote.
'We are cognisant of the fact that we didn't quite get over the finish line. We know that change is needed, but change is hard to come by,' he said.
'It takes time. It takes work, and that's why we have to learn the lessons of tonight so that we can have an even better result the next time that Canadians decide the future.'
How foolish are Canadian voters? They have just kept a politically inexperienced prime minister and largely discredited Liberal minority government in power because of their frustration with a US president.
That, in a nutshell, is what happened in Monday's election in the Great White North.
Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, entered the Liberal Party leadership race soon after Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January.
It seemed like a no-win situation. Trudeau had thoroughly destroyed his party and political brand with his mediocre, ineffective and delusional leadership. His Liberal government was also in tatters, down as much as 25 points to Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives as recently as February.
Carney was obviously more intelligent and capable than Trudeau, but he didn't bring much to the table, either.
Poilievre was the superior choice for Prime Minister. What happened?
Read Michael Taube's opinion piece here
Credit: Reuters
The Liberals were leading or elected in 161 districts, followed by the Conservatives with 150, with votes still being counted.
Mark Carney's party needs to win 172 seats in order to achieve a majority that would allow them to govern without support from a smaller party.
The westernmost province of British Columbia, where polls closed last, could decide whether Liberals fall short of a majority government.
Liberal Party workers at a hockey arena in Ottawa erupted in cheers as Canadian news organisations called the election for the Liberals only 11 minutes after polls closed.
Chants of 'Carney, Carney, Carney,' echoed around the TD Place Arena.
Danielle, a party worker from Ottawa who wore a 'Canada Strong' T-shirt, said Mr Carney was enough of a change from Justin Trudeau to offer Canadians a fresh start.
'Canadians needed someone new but competent,' she said.
Celebrations died down almost as soon as they had started. The results were too close to tell whether Mr Carney had won a majority or whether he would need the support of other parties to govern.
The NDP has won its first seat - a rare moment of good news in what has otherwise been a shattering night for the party.
Alexandre Boulerice, who kept hold of his riding of Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, conceded that the NDP had a 'rough night' and claimed Donald Trump had 'changed everything'.
'At least it's not a Conservative government, we've shown in the past we can negotiate with the Liberals,' he told CBC, the Canadian broadcaster.
Chrystia Freeland, the former finance minister whom Mark Carney defeated to claim the Liberal leadership, has kept her University-Rosedale seat in Ontario.
Mark Carney will win Canada's federal election but fall short of a majority government, according to a projection by CTV News.
The result is an extraordinary moment for Mark Carney.
His Liberal Party was down and out under Justin Trudeau, trailing the Conservatives by more than 20 points in the polls at the start of the year.
He took over an unpopular government yet managed to secure a fourth consecutive term for the party.
The next question is whether he can win the 172 seats he needs to form a majority government. That may not be known for some time and could depend on results from British Columbia, where polls closed last.
Mr Carney urged voters to return him with a majority, so that he could form the sort of strong government that could stand up to President Donald Trump and his threats.
Yves-Francois Blanchet, the leader of Bloc Quebecois, has been re-elected as MP for Beloeil-Chambly.
It has been a damaging night for his party which has seen its vote share squeezed by Mark Carney's Liberals. So far, its MPs have won six seats and are ahead in 17.
The crowd at Liberal Party HQ in Ottawa erupted in cheers as the national broadcaster CBC called the election for the Liberal Party and Mark Carney at 10:11pm.
They chanted: 'Carney, Carney, Carney.'
Danielle, a party worker from Ottawa, said Mr Carney was enough of a change from Justin Trudeau to offer Canadians a fresh start.
'Canadians needed someone new but competent,' she said.
The result came through so early that the hall is still only half full, with journalists almost outnumbering Liberal Party supporters.
One of the big stories of this election will be how Canada's multi-party system collapsed into a two-horse race.
Liberals and Conservatives have both increased their share of the vote from 2021, while the smaller parties have seen their share disintegrate. Again that seems to be down to the Trump effect, as Canadians look to big parties and heavy hitters to protect their sovereignty,
The leftist New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Québécois seem to be faring worst, and are in a battle for their politicalsurvival. Liberals in particular seem to be picking up votes from Bloc Quebecois in Quebec.
And the headline numbers show the Liberal Party, so far, winning 50.2 percent of the vote, with the Conservatives on 43.7 percent, at this early stage of results.
Mark Carney is now the overwhelming favourite to remain as Canadian prime minister, according to betting markets. Data from Polymarket shows he is now has a 97 per cent chance to stay in office, compared to just three per cent for Pierre Poilievre.
With results now trickling in, Liberal Party workers are starting to file into the TD Place Arena for their party in Ottawa. Children in red 'Canada Strong' T-shirts are among the crowd that is still only a few dozen strong.
One party worker, Teb, was sipping on a Budweiser as he described the mood as a winning one.
'It is sovereignty that will decide this election,' he said, describing how Mr Trump's intervention had been the deciding factor.
The atmosphere is sedate so far. Maybe this is how Canadians throw a party, or maybe Liberals are showing signs of nerves after a couple of seats flipped the wrong way.
As of 10pm ET, the Liberals have been elected in 23 seats and are leading in 79, with 50.7 per cent of the vote. The Conservatives have taken nine seats, are ahead in 66, and have 38.6 per cent.
The Liberals have taken their first seat from the Conservatives. CBC is projecting that Mark Carney's party has flipped South Shore-St Margarets from blue to red.
Polls have now closed in British Columbia and the Yukon, meaning ballots will soon be tallied in another 44 seats. Polls are now closed across Canada.
The Conservatives have taken a second Liberal seat in Newfoundland, according to news wire The Canadian Press.
Pierre Poilievre's party has taken Terra Nova-The Peninsulas in another blow to Mark Carney, it reports. The seat has not been called by public broadcaster CBC.
The NDP have taken a lead in their first seat, in what looks set to be a dismal night for the party as its vote is eaten into by the Liberals and Conservatives. Bloc Quebecois, the Quebec nationalist party, have a lead in 12 seats but are yet to take any.
The majority of polls have closed across Canada. Results from 266 seats from Quebec to the Rocky Mountains, many of them key battlegrounds, will soon be tallied.
Fred DeLorey, a former Conservative campaign manager, tells The Telegraph his party has seen a 'solid start' and 'big increase for us in support' in early results.
So far, the only seat to change hands is Long Range Mountains, which flipped from the Liberals to Conservatives in what Mark Carney may see as a cause for concern.
Referring to the constituencies where results are being tallied, Mr DeLorey added: 'We came into this election with eight seats and are now elected or leading in ten, which bodes well for the rest of the country.'
Dominic LeBlanc, a Canadian cabinet minister who has been re-elected as Liberal MP, suggests that third-parties being squeezed could 'lead to a number of Liberal wins, Liberal pick-ups in terms of seats'.
He conceded that Liberals would rather be further ahead of the Conservatives but added: 'There are a lot of votes still to be counted... we should still be very confident in Mr Carney's campaign.'
Wayne Long, the first Liberal MP to call for Justin Trudeau's resignation, has been re-elected to the riding of Saint John-Rothesay.
'People sadly were tired of Justin Trudeau, they wanted a change, so Mark Carney came in - new vision, economic leader,' he told CBC.
'Canadians looked for leadership, Canadians knew the threat we were under with respect to Donald Trump and Mark Carney was the difference maker. We heard it door after door.'
Mr Trudeau stepping down 'totally turned it around', he added.
Conservative Carol Antsey has taken Long Range Mountains from the Liberals, flipping the seat from red to blue, in a potential warning sign to Mark Carney's party. While the Liberals lead the Conservatives nine ridings to three so far, they are yet to gain any from their rivals.
Pierre Poilievre's chances of becoming Canadian prime minister have surged in the last half hour, according to betting markets.
At 8pm ET, Mark Carney was a heavy favourite to stay in office at 78 per cent, data from Polymarket shows, but this has since narrowed to a 59 per cent chance.
Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives have had their first win of the night, with Clifford Small holding his seat of Central Newfoundland.
Mr Small told CBC that the most important issues on the doorstep were the cost of living and crime - apparently downplaying suggestions that Donald Trump's trade war had upended the election.
Elections Canada's website is down for some users. Although its main results page is reportedly working, users are unable to look up voting numbers in their local constituency or riding, as they are called in Canada.
Liberals are projected to hold two more seats - Cape Spear and Acadie Bathurst - taking their tally to three wins, at this early stage of the night.
The Liberals have had their first win of the night with Philip Earle retaining his seat in Labrador, according to a projection by CBC.
The Liberal Party is holding its election night party at the TD Place Arena in Ottawa, which is used for lower league ice hockey games (home of the Ottawa 67s of the Ontario Hockey League and the Ottawa Charge of the Professional Women's Hockey League) and skating.
Events are expected to kick off at about 9:30pm Eastern time, when most polls have closed. But crews have installed a red carpet on stage, setup a lectern for Mark Carney, and put up giant Canadian flags.
All that's needed now is a crowd.
Doug Ford, the Conservative premier of Ontario, has claimed that Pierre Poilievre failed to adapt after Donald Trump upended the Canadian election.
In an interview with Politico published hours before polls closed, Mr Ford - who has emerged as one of the US president's leading critics north of the border - also criticised the Conservative leader for failing to reach out to him and said he appeared to be heading to defeat against Mark Carney.
Asked if Mr Poilievre had failed to adjust to a 'Trump-centred election', the Ontario premier replied: '100 per cent. I ran my whole election on Trump and protecting Ontarians, protecting communities and jobs and businesses.'
He said he told the Conservative leader in a phone call, paraphrasing Bill Clinton's strategist James Carville: 'It's the tariffs, stupid.'
Mr Ford added that he did not understand why Mr Poilievre had failed to build bridges with premiers and local mayors, telling Politico: 'It's common sense when you're in an election, you reach across to as many people as you can.'
The Liberals have taken a lead in six of the nine seats reporting results, while the Conservatives are ahead in the remaining three.
However, Pierre Poilievre's party have more than 50 per cent of the vote, compared to 44 per cent for the Liberals and four per cent for the NDP.
Pierre Poilievre, who is hoping to end the Liberals' decade in power tonight, voted in Ottowa earlier today. 'We voted for Change. Now it's your turn,' he wrote on social media.
Polls have now closed in the Maritime provinces, which is composed of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island.
As early results trickle in from Newfoundland and Labrador, the Conservatives have taken a lead in two seats, while the Liberals are ahead in one.
The first results are in and the Conservatives have taken a lead in Central Newfoundland, where Clifford Small leads 108 votes to Liberal Lynette Powell's 30.
The polls narrowed considerably in the final couple of weeks. At one stage, Mark Carney's Liberal Party held a double-digit lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party.
But by the time Abacus Data published its final poll at midday on Sunday, that lead was down to just two points.
It suggested that voters were looking beyond the impact of Donald Trump (whose intervention had helped Mr Carney and his message that he offered a safe pair of hands) and were thinking again about a cost-of-living crisis that had seen house prices soar out of reach of first-time buyers. Perhaps Canada was after all ready to dump the Liberals out of power after a decade.
However, a two-point lead is perhaps not as close as it looks.
Much of Mr Poilievre's support is concentrated in the Conservative heartland of Alberta. Racking up an extra few points in the polls just means turning Alberta an even deeper shade of blue.
In contrast, Liberal votes tend to be more efficient. And a point or two lead likely means picking up the crucial seats in the Toronto suburbs and in Quebec that will decide this election.
The first polls in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada's most easterly province, have now closed.
Mark Carney's poll lead in Canada's election race has narrowed to just two points, hours before voters cast their ballots on Monday.
In a campaign dominated by Donald Trump's threats to annex the country, the Liberal prime minister began the month six points ahead of Conservative populist Pierre Poilievre, who is seen as sympathetic to the US president.
However, a poll by Abacus Data published on Sunday, found that the Liberals were on 41 per cent of the vote compared with 39 per cent for Conservatives.
Read the full article from Rob Crilly, our chief US correspondent, here.
Mark Carney has posted a picture of himself voting in Ottowa, giving a thumbs up to the cameras in a confident display.
'I just voted. Make sure you do, too,' the Canadian prime minister wrote on social media, adding the hashtag: '#CanadaStrong.' He posted the same message seconds earlier in French.
President Donald Trump's attacks on Canada upended the election race. And he couldn't resist trolling voters on Election Day, with a Truth Social post that seemed to suggest they should vote for him.
'Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, quadruple in size, with zero tariffs or taxes, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America,' he wrote.
Pierre Polievre, the populist Conservative candidate, had looked odds on to end a decade of Liberal rule, until Mr Trump weighed in at the start of the year.
His double digit poll lead evaporated as Mark Carney, the Liberal leader, positioned himself as the best candidate to defend Canada against Mr Trump's attentions.
Hello and welcome to the blog. We'll be bringing you live updates from Canada's federal election.
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