The Premier League returns: Our writers' verdicts on the end-of-season run-in

New York Times

01-04-2025

If a week is a long time in football, then a break of more than two weeks? Well, that's simply an eternity.
But if you've found yourself longing for the warm embrace of England's top flight over the lonely days when international football, FA Cup quarter-finals and children being perched atop telephone boxes have dominated the agenda, then fear not. The Premier League is back.
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Starting with three games on Tuesday night, we have a full slate of midweek action to get our teeth into.
So now is as good a time as ever for a discussion. Who holds the edge in the race for European qualification? What are the plotlines that will dominate proceedings between now and May? And who are the unsung heroes of the season?
Our writers Mark Carey, Oliver Kay, Caoimhe O'Neill, Carl Anka, Jacob Whitehead and Tim Spiers chew the fat as the Premier League returns.
Mark Carey: I'm simply looking forward to the crescendo of the season. The final stretch is when champions are crowned and relegation candidates are confirmed — what more drama can you ask for?
Yes, we are already pretty confident of who those respective teams are, but dig a little deeper and it is still all to play for in the quest for European football next season. After so much discussion, debate and deliberations throughout the campaign, now is the time to see those crucial moments play out. Might there even be a twist in the tale? I cannot wait for the action to unfold.
Oliver Kay: Are we saying the title race is done and dusted? Liverpool are 12 points clear but there are still nine games to go. They have a Merseyside derby against a revitalised Everton at Anfield on Wednesday night, which should be a great occasion and a significant test. Liverpool have only won the league title once in 35 years — and that ended up being celebrated behind closed doors because of the Covid-19 pandemic — so even if it ends up being a procession, I don't think it's something to be blase about. There could yet be some tension along the way.
Caoimhe O'Neill: Football stadiums in the sunshine. Is there a better place to be than a match when the sun is shining? It warms the soul, even watching from an armchair. In England, blue skies are never guaranteed, so aside from the weather, the pressure is on Liverpool to wrap up the title. The race for European football will be topsy-turvy, which should keep us picking popcorn out of our teeth until the end of May.
Carl Anka: The Champions League race has the most appeal from a team perspective but I'm going hyperfocus on a collection of players between now and the end of the season.
Can Alexander Isak finish the season strongly at Newcastle United? Can Evan Ferguson reignite the fire on loan at West Ham United and play back-to-back 90-minute games? Will Chelsea's experimentation of Reece James in central midfield come good? Will Luke Shaw or Mason Mount come back at Mancheter United? When Bukayo Saka returns from his hamstring surgery, will he still have the same explosiveness? (I hope so!) Which team (Nottingham Forest) would make a good fit for Ipswich Town's Liam Delap this summer?
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Jacob Whitehead: The chase for the top four — or more realistically, given UEFA coefficients, top five. If Forest hold on, it will be one of the most surprising storylines of recent seasons — but the stakes are high across the top of the league.
Chelsea are slumping badly and the hierarchy's faith in Enzo Maresca may waver. Newcastle's spending will hinge on whether they can play Champions League football. Tenth-placed Bournemouth are only four points back from fifth-placed Manchester City — half the league are eyeing European football.
Tim Spiers: With the title and relegation places surely already sewn up, there's intrigue about teams and matches instead. This week throws up the Merseyside derby and, given their form before the international break, perhaps a rare opportunity for Everton to win at Anfield and an even rarer chance for David Moyes to win at Anfield (he's never done it from 21 attempts).
Then there's Chelsea versus Tottenham Hotspur on Thursday: always a keenly-fought derby with a surprising amount of needle, it is a big game for both managers. Maresca seems to be strongly admired by Chelsea's players but less so by their supporters, and Ange Postecoglou has precious little time to prove he deserves another season in charge.
Carey: History will arguably be more favourable to Liverpool. As good as they have been in Arne Slot's first season in charge, there has been an underlying narrative that their success has come from other teams not providing a sufficient challenge to their title push.
The forensic lens on teams has never been sharper. When that lens softens over the years, fans will only remember the name on the trophy. Liverpool have put together a strong campaign and deserve their position in the table.
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Kay: Usually, you would judge a title-winning side over years but this Liverpool team will look very different next season, with a summer of change ahead.
It's also harder to evaluate a title-winning team when their competitors fall short. I wouldn't put Slot's Liverpool in the same elevated class as the team that won the Premier League under Jurgen Klopp in 2020 or even the side that finished just behind Manchester City a year before that. Equally, I wouldn't put last season's Manchester City in the same class as their earlier title-winning teams under Pep Guardiola, but that's holding them to an exceptional standard.
The levels at the very top of the Premier League have dropped slightly over the past couple of seasons but the standard from top to bottom is extremely high, so it takes a seriously impressive effort to be as dominant as Liverpool have been. Short answer: I would probably put them on a similar level to last season's Manchester City or Antonio Conte's Chelsea — worthy, impressive, creditable champions, but not likely to be recalled as vintage conquerors.
O'Neill: They would be remembered as unexpected but deserved champions. The implosion of their rivals at crucial stages of the season has helped but to win a title, you still have to win a title — and who here among us expected Slot to lead his team to 12 points clear with nine games to go? Not me. Credit will be due.
Anka: This is the most volatile the top of the Premier League has been since the 2015-16 season. Slot's men have done very well to keep on trucking when many others imploded. However, their real 'legacy' might not become clear until the end of next season, and we see how they defend their title.
Liverpool have a big summer ahead to remain at the front of the pack for the next campaign (they could end up reworking their left and right flanks simultaneously). This title win could be the start of something special. If it is, we can class them in the same tier as Manuel Pellegrini's Manchester City side of 2013-14 — good but not great in the way that Klopp's 2019-20 side were.
Whitehead: Some league winners are viewed through the lens of the manager rather than the individual. Think of Sir Alex Ferguson's last title at Manchester United — despite Robin van Persie's excellence, that season is predominantly remembered for Ferguson's final glory.
For Van Persie then, read Salah now. This is not to compare Slot to Ferguson in historic achievement, but in terms of narrative, Liverpool's head coach is the dominant storyline. Taking over from Klopp, Liverpool's own legendary manager, before triumphing with his first attempt? Think of how 2013-14 would have been remembered if Moyes had marked his arrival at Manchester United with a league title.
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Spiers: Not as a premium title-winner compared to some of the great Premier League sides, but as worthy winners and as the season of Slot and Salah, like how 2013-14 (for me, anyway) is remembered as the season of Brendan Rodgers and Luis Suarez.
That team famously fell just short, partly because of the pressure put on them by Manchester City and Chelsea. This Liverpool team have not felt a rampant challenger breathing down their neck but history is unlikely to emphasise that fact.
It may also be seen as the end of an era, not the beginning of one. One of the oldest squads in the league needs a refresh.
Carey: As a data analyst, I am obliged to turn to the numbers. Liverpool, Arsenal and Forest look nailed on for a Champions League place, with Opta's predicted table (established by simulating the remaining matches hundreds of thousands of times) tipping Manchester City and Newcastle United to claim the remaining two spots.
The pair have the most straightforward fixtures remaining among the sides pushing for Europe — on paper, at least. Statistically speaking, Guardiola's men have the easiest run-in, with Newcastle having the sixth-easiest among all Premier League sides. There might be some twists and turns along the way — but, in order, I am saying Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, City and Newcastle.
Kay: Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, Manchester City and… despite having little enthusiasm for this team and this project, I'm going to say Chelsea.
O'Neill: Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, City and… Newcastle. This was difficult to decide on but with the black and white pyro smoke still clinging to their nostril hairs after that special parade last weekend, Newcastle are going to finish with a flurry of wins, even with plenty of teams hot on their heels.
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Anka: Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, City and… Newcastle. A series of managers have used a League Cup triumph to put the battery in the back of their players, and they'll finish the season strongly. That dogs-of-war midfield trio they have must be an agony to play against. Dribble passed Joelinton and he tries to suplex you.
Whitehead: Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, City, Newcastle. First and second feel done and dusted, while there is no evidence but entrenched dogma and underestimation that Forest will stumble. They feel like the Newcastle of two seasons ago.
Eddie Howe's current iteration have a tough end to the season — playing at Arsenal and Brighton & Hove Albion and hosting Chelsea among their final four games — but should reemerge from their Carabao Cup celebrations refocused and remotivated. This is not the Manchester City we are used to but it feels like they are through the worst of it. It would surprise me if Chelsea better their results.
Spiers: Liverpool, Arsenal, City, Forest, Brighton. Chelsea's form since December is really poor and their run-in is tough (Brentford, Fulham, Newcastle and Forest away, plus Liverpool at home), so I can envisage them dropping out. City's fixtures are much kinder (they play none of the top seven), which leaves Brighton, Newcastle or an outlier from the chasing pack to finish fifth. Brighton and Newcastle play each other on May 4 at the Amex Stadium, which may decide it. I'll go with the former.
Carey: With the title race and relegation battle almost wrapped up, a smattering of teams have little to play for domestically in the remaining weeks. Manchester United and Spurs are two of those teams, but both must end the campaign strongly to show green shoots of recovery after torturous seasons.
For United, Ruben Amorim needs some positive examples of his 3-4-2-1 system in full operation to provide a clearer window into the long-term intentions. For Spurs, it would be a return to their high-intensity, possession-dominant style that Postecoglou had initially imposed in north London when he joined. With his job seemingly on the line, a strong finish could provide the morale boost Tottenham need.
Kay: In a way, it's Chelsea. Everyone at Manchester City accepts they've had a bad season. Everyone at Manchester United accepts they have a massive rebuilding job to do. But people at Chelsea are still trying to convince themselves and the world that they're onto a good thing.
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A couple of points here or there won't change my impression of this Chelsea 'project', but at least they would finally feel able to claim some minor vindication if, having spent more than £1billion ($1.3bn) in the transfer market over the past three seasons, they manage to scrape into the Champions League places (as well as win the Conference League, which is surely a given).
O'Neill: For some reason, I think it is Liverpool. They are still not confirmed as champions and are either going to make it a waltz to the finish or a bit of a clamber over the finish line. How they complete this season will go a long way in determining how we define them.
Anka: Southampton. You need to earn three more points to avoid historic humiliation. You can do it. I believe in you. (Also, let me know if any spares are going for the trip to Leicester City on May 3.)
Whitehead: It feels as if, whatever happens from here, the verdicts on Manchester United and Tottenham's seasons have been established. United have been disappointing but Amorim will get more time, Spurs have been disappointing and Postecoglou probably won't, but Maresca's Chelsea future is most up in the air.
This is a facsimile of last season at Leicester. Maresca's side scraped over the line in the Championship without turning a corner — if Chelsea continue to slump, missing out on Champions League football, the owners have already displayed their impatience.
Spiers: So many teams have underperformed, which means a few could do with proving they're not as bad as we think they are: chiefly Southampton, who need one victory to avoid Derby County's all-time-low Premier League points record.
Manchester City have to prove they are capable of belatedly engineering some consistency from their expensively assembled but endlessly underachieving team; ditto Chelsea, to a lesser extent. The biggest underachievers are Manchester United and Spurs, but their seasons are all about the Europa League now.
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Carey: I am interested to see if a dark horse can sneak into Champions League spots. It looks like Forest are already one of those but if Brighton, Bournemouth or even Fulham were to make a late dart into those top five places, it would be incredible.
It is remarkable how tight things are in the top half of the table. Five points separate Chelsea in fourth and Bournemouth in 10th — and teams are likely to take points off each other.
Kay: The biggest story of this season will be the outcome of the Premier League's case against Manchester City and whether that outcome is a) a complete acquittal or b) a complete damnation of the club that has been English football's dominant force over the past decade — or, more likely, c) somewhere in between — the repercussions will be far bigger than anything that has happening on the pitch.
O'Neill: Watching how the managers of the clubs chasing Europe go about their business. Many of them, including Bournemouth's Andoni Iraola, have multiple prospective clubs watching their every move closely. It will be interesting to see how that plays out and who remains in their jobs come August after a summer of headhunting.
Anka: Can Aston Villa elbow past their other top-half rivals and qualify for the Champions League? The club had a wage-to-turnover ratio hovering at 96 per cent last season, according to Deloitte's Football Money League. Almost half the league are chasing Champions League qualification but Villa's accounts might need it the most. It's been an excellent season for Unai Emery's men but a strong finish is required, or belts may be tightened in the summer.
Whitehead: I'd love to keep this answer light — but mine is the repercussions of a verdict in City's case with the Premier League. If it drops in April or May, expect City's fate to dominate the news agenda for weeks.
Spiers: The ongoing refereeing conspiracy against Arsenal? Who loses the Jadon Sancho tug of war? Precisely how much can the PGMOL, the refereeing governing body, balls-up the forthcoming introduction of semi-automated offside technology? Who wins the 'used to be good but not anymore' 13th-to-16th mini-league comprising fallen giants Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton and West Ham?
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But no, seriously, with the bottom three already decided, the title wrapped up and Crystal Palace finishing 12th again, the only thing that remains of real interest in the Premier League is the race for Champions League football, which is genuinely quite enthralling given there are some new teams in the mix this season.
There's also the potential for Salah to break Erling Haaland's Premier League scoring record in a single season — he's on 27 with nine games left and needs to score another nine to equal Haaland's 36. If you add Salah's 17 assists, he could record the best individual season in the Premier League era.
Carey: I do not expect so. The teams in the relegation zone have not done anywhere near enough to warrant survival after their promotion and, for the second season running, all three look set to go straight back down. It is a shame because the overriding narrative is that the gap between the Championship and the Premier League has become a chasm — but plenty of teams have shown that you can thrive, not just survive, in the top division. Fulham, Nottingham Forest, and Brentford were Championship teams in 2020, and all are set to have top-half Premier League finishes this season.
Kay: I don't think so. I don't think Ipswich and Leicester are capable of hauling back that deficit — and that's more a reflection of the league's rising quality than their shortcomings. If you somehow were to parachute this Ipswich team into the Premier League of, say, eight or nine years ago, never mind further back, they would be comfortably in mid-table. The problem they have — and it's a serious problem in English football — is that the gap between the Championship and the Premier League is so big.
O'Neill: I'm sorry, Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton, but you are like the horses at the Grand National whose jockeys have been unseated and are now very much on your own for the run-in. So run free with the wind in your hair and enjoy it.
Anka: Nope. The 1997-98 season used to be unique as a Premier League season where all three promoted clubs went straight back down. A creeping tactical and financial instability is affecting England's top 25 or so clubs.
Whitehead: No. Between them, Ipswich, Southampton, and Leicester have a record of 14 losses and one draw from their last 15 games. A reversal of that would not be a 'great escape', it would be a miracle. If Wolves beat Ipswich on Saturday, even prayers to a power above would be in vain.
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Spiers: Nope. Even as a pessimistic Wolves fan, it's job done for Vitor Pereira. If Wolves don't pick up another point in their final nine matches, on current form, neither Ipswich nor Leicester will even come close to catching them; they've earned a combined five points from 20 matches in 2025.
Carey: Slot has made light work of his debut season but Nuno Espirito Santo's job at Forest is remarkable. Sure, Forest have overperformed a little bit at the top end of the field — scoring 11.5 goals more than their expected goals (xG) suggests — but Nuno has imposed a style that is defensively disciplined and devastating on the counter-attack.
Given how they finished 17th last season, even pushing for the top half would have been impressive. Securing a place in the Champions League spots would be dreamland stuff, thanks to Nuno.
Kay: There are five or six managers who have had excellent seasons but it boils down to three who have impressed in very different ways: Slot, Iraola, Nuno.
There is a bit of revisionist talk about Slot and the size of the challenge he faced after taking over from Klopp at Liverpool. (Did anyone predict they would be 12 points clear at the top of the league by this stage? I certainly didn't.) But in terms of performance vs expectations, I'm going to say Nuno at Forest — not just because he's taken a previously relegation-threatened team to third in the Premier League but because the place was a madhouse when he arrived last season. He has done a remarkable job.
O'Neill: In reality, it is Slot — especially if he does, in his first season at Anfield, deliver Liverpool's 20th league title and equal Manchester United's record. Shouts to Nuno, Howe, Iraola, Fulham's Marco Silva, Emery and Brighton's Fabian Hurzeler, though. They have all made it a proper anyone can beat anyone league.
Anka: *Bruce Forsyth voice* Nuno Espirito Santo, come on down! Forest ended up in some hot water last season for their odd activities in the transfer market but they've ended up ahead of the curve on what a Premier League squad needs. Nuno created a rugged team that can be lethal on the counter-attack. There will be some excellent photos of the City Ground under the Champions League lights next season.
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Whitehead: It would be easy to search around for a hipster answer but if Nuno doesn't get it for taking Forest from 17th to third, it's difficult to know what else could justify it.
Spiers: For Slot to win the title in his debut Premier League season is extremely impressive but in judging this award, you'd have to say he did inherit a ready-made team and squad that only lost four league games last season.
Forest, on the other hand, have gone from relegation fodder to (probably) the Champions League under Nuno. His two previous standout achievements in management were taking Rio Ave to Europe for the first time in their history and Wolves to Europe for the first time in almost 40 years. He's no one-trick pony and his incredible work this season deserves the highest recognition.
Carey: Again, I'm going to lean on the data here but Brentford's Mikkel Damsgaard has quietly been one of the most creative forces in the Premier League this season. His 7.1 expected assists — which measures the xG of the shot that is assisted — is bettered only by Son Heung-min, Cole Palmer and Mohamed Salah.
Damsgaard's appreciation of space, intelligent movement, and deft passes can sometimes go unnoticed, but watch him for a full game and you can see how deserving he is of praise. Given his previous injury struggles, I am happy that he has found fitness and form. He has already played more league minutes than in any of the previous four seasons. The quality has always been there but he is showing it consistently.
Kay: How unsung are we talking? If we're calling Salah a shoo-in for the individual awards, then that downplays the brilliance of his Liverpool team-mate Virgil van Dijk, Arsenal defender Gabriel and Newcastle forward Isak, all of whom have been outstanding. But here, we're talking about Bryan Mbeumo at Brentford and a handful of players from Forest: Murillo, Nikola Milenkovic, Morgan Gibbs-White, Elliot Anderson and Chris Wood.
O'Neill: I'll try to save flowers for some names not already mentioned. Three that spring to mind are Milos Kerkez, Antonee Robinson and Ryan Gravenberch. And not forgetting Wataru Endo, Liverpool's official closer-out of games — mentioning him feels like a fitting way to end my answers.
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Anka: Ryan Christie had spent his career as a decent No 10 (attacking midfielder) or hard-working winger but has been recalibrated into a sensational box-to-box midfielder. The 30-year-old is a professional pest (that's a compliment) and a key component in the perpetual pressing machine that Iraola has forged at Bournemouth.
Christie is more than just a ball-winning water-carrier — he sprinkles flair in with the fight, too. Iraola has said Christie dealing with a chronic groin issue and will need surgery in the summer. I hope he'll find a way to continue his good form next season.
We're obsessed 🤩 pic.twitter.com/74R57ybyYM
— AFC Bournemouth 🍒 (@afcbournemouth) February 22, 2024
Whitehead: Salah is deservedly receiving the plaudits but outside the Egyptian, Liverpool's most integral player this season has been Alexis Mac Allister. He links defence and attack as well as any midfielder I've watched this season, and really puts his body on the line for such a slight figure. A word for another Merseyside-based midfielder, Everton's Idrissa Gueye, who has been outstanding at 35.
Spiers: Depends how unsung we're talking. Wood and Isak are both quite well sung, so I'll jointly go for Mbuemo and Yoane Wissa for helping spearhead Brentford to another comfortable mid-table finish. I thought they would struggle this season but they're 24 points clear of the bottom three and batting well above their weight yet again. Thomas Frank is probably the Premier League's most underrated manager.