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Yahoo
37 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Rapid intensification? Hurricane forecasters say Erin's winds could skyrocket.
Tropical Storm Erin, now spinning far out in the central Atlantic Ocean, could undergo rapid intensification into a powerful 125-mph hurricane over the next few days, meteorologists said in an Aug. 14 advisory. This phenomenon can cause a tropical storm to escalate into a hurricane or a hurricane to jump one or more categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale in less than a day. An early Aug. 14 forecast from the National Hurricane Center said that Erin was forecast to undergo rapid intensification, but based on new data, a later forecast called for "steady" intensification over the next few days. "Erin is moving into an environment with very warm water temperatures, and it's not going to exit that environment for at least 5 or 6 days," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in his Substack The Eyewall. "Erin should begin to tap into this environment over the next couple days, and it's possible that we see a burst of rapid intensification at some point." Regardless, the environment ahead looks ripe for Erin to become a powerful major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this weekend, and the storm is forecast to be nearing Category 4 strength as it turns into the western Atlantic early next week, noted WPLG hurricane specialist Michael Lowry in an Aug. 14 Substack post. Though not currently thought to be direct threat to land, Erin's waves are forecast to batter the East Coast with high surf and the threat of dangerous rip currents for beachgoers. What is rapid intensification? Why is it dangerous? Rapid intensification is a process in which a storm undergoes accelerated growth: The phenomenon is typically defined to be a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) intensifying by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. As of the 11 a.m. ET advisory from the hurricane center, a rise of 30 mph in 24 hours is expected. Whatever happens with Erin, rapidly intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes are especially dangerous because they can give the public less time to prepare and often catch people off guard, AccuWeather said. "Predicting a storm's peak intensity and its intensity at landfall is one of the most difficult aspects of weather forecasting, and a rapidly intensifying hurricane adds tremendously to that challenge," according to AccuWeather. What causes rapid intensification? "Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an extremely conducive environment," Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said. "Typically, this environment consists of very warm water, low vertical wind shear and high levels of midlevel moisture." Such sudden spikes have been the hallmark of history's most fearsome hurricanes, Ken Graham, former director of the hurricane center and now director of the National Weather Service, told USA TODAY in 2022. Out of the nine hurricanes with winds of 150 mph or greater that struck the U.S. mainland over 103 years, all but one saw the explosion of force and power known as rapid intensification. What is the Saffir-Simpson scale? Hurricanes are measured by wind speed, with the higher categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale corresponding to more intense storms. Here's the full scale: Category / Sustained Winds: 1: 74-95 mph 2: 96-110 mph 3: 111-129 mph 4: 130-156 mph 5: 157 mph or higher This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane 'rapid intensification' worries return with Erin
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Eastern Canada cooldown to flip from heat waves to hints of fall
It's been a long, hot summer across Eastern Canada. Are you ready for a much-deserved cooldown? A pattern flip on the horizon promises to send hints of fall sweeping across much of Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada over the next two weeks. Not only will conditions cool off enough to open those windows, but some communities may even see low temperatures dip into the single digits. DON'T MISS: Heat slips to hints of fall to round out August It's been a warm and muggy season so far across much of the region. Many cities across Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada have seen 10-20+ days at or above 30°C so far this year. As of the middle of August, Windsor has seen 28 days with high temperatures at or above 30 degrees. The count stands at 23 days in Toronto, 21 days in Ottawa, and an impressive tally of 5 days at or above 30°C over in St. John's. Many areas in Ontario and Quebec will add to that count this weekend, but a change is on the way by next week. RELATED: A hint of fall will push into northern Ontario on Sunday as high temperatures drop into the middle to upper teens. Some parts of the region could see overnight lows drop into the single digits. Comfortable air will spread into eastern Ontario and southern Quebec as temperatures here will only reach the lower 20s. Readings north of Ottawa and Montreal will struggle to even hit the 20-degree mark. Communities outside the cities and their suburbs could easily see Monday morning lows in the single digits. Folks across Atlantic Canada will see much cooler conditions dominate next week, with temperatures several degrees below seasonal for several days. A brief warmup will arrive the following weekend before a more widespread cooldown arrives. A strong cold front is expected to track across most of Eastern Canada, bringing a few days of much cooler temperatures for the final week of August. The comfortable, fall-like air may easily reach into southern Ontario and beyond well south of the border. Header image created using graphics and imagery from Canva. WATCH: La Niña watch issued for the winter ahead Click here to view the video
UPI
an hour ago
- UPI
Erin to rapidly strengthen, reach major hurricane status this weekend
1 of 2 | Hurricane Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane by 2 a.m. Sunday. Tracking by the National Hurricane Center Aug. 15 (UPI) -- Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season on Friday morning and is forecast to rapidly strengthen as it heads near the Leeward Islands, and later Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. In its 10 a.m. EDT update, the National Hurricane Center said Erin became a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph -- just 2 mph above the tropical storm designation. In the 4 p.m. update, Erin remained at 75 mph. Erin was 365 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, and was moving west-northwest at 17 mph in warm waters. The NHC said the motion is expected to continue through the weekend with some decrease in forward speed. With rapid strengthening the next two to three days, Eric is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend with winds at least 111 mph. On the forecast track, Erin is likely to go just north of the Northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Erin is forecast to reach Category 4 at 130 mph on Monday, the NHC said. By 2 p.m., Wednesday, the storm was forecast to be a few hundred miles west of Bermuda and outside the big tracking cone. "While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the East coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing, there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along western Atlantic beaches next week," NHC forecaster Jack Beven wrote in a discussion. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for Anguilla and Barbuda, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 75 miles from the center, and tropical-force winds outward to 115 miles. Marine warnings are in effect for the Atlantic, Caribbean and southwest Atlantic and the southwest North Atlantic. The NHC said Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands -- which include Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Martin, St. Barts, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat -- should expect heavy rainfall Friday night through Sunday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast with isolated totals of 6 inches. It could lead to flash and urban flooding, along with landslides and mudslides. Swells will begin affecting this area and will spread to the western Atlantic next week. Wind gusts or tropical storm-force winds are possible in rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. "Do not underestimate the power of a major hurricane even passing by offshore," Alex DaSilva, the lead hurricane expert with AccuWeather, said. "These massive storms produce very rough surf and lethal rip currents that can impact beaches even hundreds of miles away." The previous four named Atlantic storms this year were Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. None of them became hurricanes, and Chantal was the only one to make landfall in the United States, causing significant flooding in North Carolina. Helene struck that state last year as a tropical storm, causing an estimated $53 billion in damage, after hitting western Florida as a Category 4 hurricane. Four other hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2024: Beryl, Debby, Francine and Milton.
