Recession watch, tariff prices, and stocks in Trump's first 100 days: Markets news roundup
Like the gyrations in the stock market, economists have gone back and forth on recession predictions. A year or so ago there was a broad consensus among experts that there would be a recession in 2024 — but it never materialized. By this year, amid strong a strong job market and cooling inflation, such talk had died down.
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Canadian voters swept economist Mark Carney into office this week, defeating conservative and Trump-aligned Pierre Poilievre and giving the Liberal party a hold on power for a fourth straight term. Just a few months ago, the Conservatives were widely expected to rout the Liberal party as Canadians soured on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's leadership. But as Trump began talking annexing Canada and imposing tariffs, public opinion swung back towards Carney, who was viewed as more like to stand up to Trump.
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If you want to take the temperature of America's restaurants, watch Sysco (SYY).
The Houston-based giant is the largest U.S. supplier to restaurants, hospitals, schools, hotels, and cafeterias, delivering everything from fresh steaks to paper napkins. As the middleman between farms, manufacturers, and dining rooms, Sysco is so ubiquitous that if you're eating out — especially at a chain or institution — there's a good chance they supplied the bun for your burger, the ketchup packet for your fries, and even the to-go container for your leftovers.
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U.S. stocks ended the day at about break-even on Wednesday as newly released economic data gave reason for cautious optimism.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day up 142 points, or 0.4%, a 900-point swing from its daily low that morning. The S&P 500 eked up, gaining 0.2% on the day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished down slightly, losing 0.1%. All three indexes had shown steep declines shortly after the bell.
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If the market's performance these days is giving you flashbacks to the days of 1973 and 1974, when President Richard Nixon resigned and President Gerald Ford replaced him, it's with good reason: They're the only two presidents in the post-World War II era who endured a worse stock market performance in their first 100 days than President Donald Trump.
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It's no secret that housing prices in the U.S. have soared. In 2020, the median U.S. home price was $289,000. Now, it's $418,000. And with mortgage rates remaining high, many people feel like homeownership is simply out of the question.
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Rents have soared in the past decade, up an average of 50%. And with stagnating wages and fears of a recession, many Americans are feeling burdened by housing costs as they go to pay rent every month.
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UPI
16 minutes ago
- UPI
Trump threatens to cut Musk government contracts amid agenda bill spat
Tesla CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump hold a press conference in the Oval Office at the White House on Friday as Musk ends his tenure as director of the Department of Government Efficiency. Photo by Francis Chung/UPI | License Photo June 5 (UPI) -- President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened to cut Elon Musk's government contracts through Tesla amid his departure from his role cutting government spending and opposition to Trump's sweeping legislative agenda bill. Trump threatened to end all government contracts with the Musk-founded Tesla in a post on Truth Social and suggested that would be a fast way to reduce government spending. "The easiest way to save money in our budget, billions and billions of dollars, is to terminate Elon's governmental subsidies and contracts," Trump wrote. Tesla share prices declined by more than 14% on Thursday and shed $152 billion in value from the EV maker. Trump on Thursday accused Musk of going "crazy" after the president canceled the federal electric vehicle mandate imposed by the Biden administration. "I took away his EV mandate that forced everyone to buy electric cars that nobody else wanted," Trump said in a Truth Social post on Thursday. "He just went crazy!" Trump said he asked Musk to leave his advisory position with DOGE, although Musk was scheduled to exit the position at the end of May. Musk earlier said Trump would not have won the Nov. 5 election without his help. He contributed an estimated $250 million to Trump's campaign effort. "Without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate," Musk said Thursday morning in a post on X. Musk has criticized the proposed "one big, beautiful" federal government budget bill as increasing the nation's debt and negating his work with DOGE. The entrepreneur opposes the spending bill that the House has passed and is before the Senate because it removed tax credits and subsidies for buying EVs, Trump claimed. "I don't mind Elon turning against me, but he should have done that months ago," Trump said in a subsequent Truth Social post on Thursday afternoon. "This is one of the greatest bills ever presented to Congress," he continued. "It's a record cut in expenses, $1.6 trillion dollars, and the biggest tax cut ever given." If the measure is not passed, Trump said it will trigger a 68% tax increase, "and things far worse than that." The president said the "easiest way to save money ... is to terminate Elon's governmental subsidies and contracts" with Tesla. Later on Thursday, Musk in an X post said it is "time to drop the really big bomb" on the president. Trump "is in the Epstein files," Musk said. "That is the real reason they have not been made public." Musk did not say in what context Trump allegedly appears in the Epstein files, but ended his post with: "Have a nice day, DJT!" He made a subsequent post that asks: "Is it time to create a new political party in America that actually represents the 80% in the middle?" Trump and Musk often appeared together at high-profile events in the first four months of the administration.
CNBC
17 minutes ago
- CNBC
Russia's ruble rockets: The curious case of the world's best-performing currency this year
In the midst of a long-drawn war, declining oil prices, stiff sanctions, and an economy that's on the downhill, Russia's ruble has been rising. In fact, it is the world's best-performing currency so far this year, according to Bank of America, with gains of over 40%. The ruble's stunning rally in 2025 marks a sharp reversal from the past two years when the currency had depreciated dramatically. What's powering the Russian currency? The strength in the ruble has less to do with a sudden jump in foreign investors' confidence than with capital controls and policy tightening, market watchers told CNBC. The weakness in the dollar comes as an added bonus. Brendan McKenna, international economist and foreign exchange strategist at Wells Fargo, lists three reasons for the ruble's rally. "The central bank has opted to keep rates relatively elevated, capital controls and other FX restrictions have tightened a bit, and [there's been] some progress or attempt at progress in finding a peace between Russia and Ukraine." Russia's central bank has maintained a restrictive stance to curtail high inflation, keeping domestic interest rates high at 21% and tightening credit. The steep borrowing costs are deterring local businesses from importing goods, in turn reducing demand for foreign currency among Russian businesses and consumers, said industry watchers. There's been a decline in foreign currency demand from local importers, given weak consumption and the adequate supply of ruble, said Andrei Melaschenko, an economist at Renaissance Capital. That decline has given the ruble a boost as banks don't need to sell rubles to buy the dollar or yuan. Russian exporters need to be paid in rubles, or at least convert dollar payment into rubles, thereby increasing demand. Importers, on the other hand, have stopped purchasing foreign goods, and so do not need to sell rubles to pay in dollars. In the first quarter of 2025, there was an "overstocking" in consumer electronics, cars and trucks which were actively imported in the second half of last year in anticipation of the increase in import duties, said the Moscow-based economist. The consumer activity cooldown was primarily in the durable goods sector, which made up a sizable portion of Russia's imports, Melaschenko said. Another key reason the Russian ruble has strengthened this year is that Russian exporters, in particular the oil industry, have been converting foreign earnings back into rubles, analysts said. The Russian government requires large exporters to bring a portion of their foreign earnings back into the country and exchange them for rubles on the local market, according to the government. Between January and April, the sales of foreign currencies by the largest exporters in Russia totaled $42.5 billion, data from CBR showed. This is almost a 6% jump compared to the four months before January. CBR shrinking money supply is also supporting ruble, said Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. In August 2023, the rate of growth in the money created by the CBR was soaring at 23.9% per year, he said. This figure has turned negative since January — currently contracting at a rate of -1.19% per year, said Hanke. Further, hopes for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia following the election of U.S. President Donald Trump had also sparked some optimism, said Wells Fargo's McKenna. Expectations of Russia's reintegration into the economy had prompted some capital flows back into ruble-denominated assets, in spite of the capital controls, which have supported the currency's strength to some extent. Despite the ruble's current strength, analysts caution that it may not be sustainable. Oil prices—a major pillar of Russia's export economy — have fallen significantly this year, which could weigh on FX inflows. "We believe that the ruble is close to its maximum and may begin to weaken in the near future," Melaschenko said. "Oil prices have fallen significantly, which should be reflected in a decrease in export revenue and the sale of its foreign currency component," he added. While peace talks between Russia and Ukraine recently have not wielded any concrete developments, McKenna also noted that a concrete peace deal could erode ruble's strength as the controls such as the FX restrictions that have supported the currency might be lifted. "Ruble can selloff pretty rapidly going forward, especially if a peace or ceasefire is reached," he said. "In that scenario, capital controls probably get fully lifted and the central bank might cut rates rather quickly," he added. Exporters are also seeing slimmer margins, industry analysts noted, in particular the country's oil sector against the backdrop of declining global oil prices. The government, too, is feeling the squeeze — lower oil prices combined with a stronger ruble are eroding oil and gas revenues. The government's finances are highly sensitive to fluctuations in crude prices, with oil and gas earnings making up around 30% of federal revenues in 2024, according Heli Simola, senior economist at the Bank of Finland. "The Ministry of Finance has been forced to lean more heavily on the National Welfare Fund to cover spending," Melaschenko said. "And there may be further cuts to non-priority expenditures if this trend continues." That said, aside from the oil trade, Russia has been mostly isolated from the global marketplace. "Meaning, a weaker RUB does not add much to Russia's trade competitiveness," said McKenna.
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Gets Delightfully Catty On Trump-Musk Split
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) played the feud between President Donald Trump and former DOGE henchman Elon Musk for laughs on Thursday. (Watch the video below.) Approached by Spectrum News 1 about the fracture in their bromance, the smiling AOC said: 'Oh man, the girls are fighting, aren't they?' The progressive lawmaker could be forgiven for a little regressive humor. She has been one of the Democrats' most vocal opponents of Trump's so-called 'Big Beautiful Bill' ― the legislation that actually ignited the Trump-Musk row. Musk called the spending measure an abomination and once Trump finally expressed his disappointment in the Tesla magnate and Trump mega-donor, things turned personal between the two. The bill is being ironed out in the Senate and would reportedly ax 11 million people off Medicaid over time. Ocasio-Cortez had made a similar prediction last month. 'When this country wakes up in the morning, there will be consequences to pay for this,' she said at the time. But perhaps she didn't see the bill resulting in the breakup of DC's premier platonic power couple. For a moment anyway, it was something to crack wise about. AOC on Musk and Trump: "the girls are fighting aren't they ?"💀 — Winter Politics (@WinterPolitics1) June 6, 2025 Stephen Colbert Spots The Musk-Trump Feud Moment That Proves 'Things Are Bad' 1 Subtle Barb In Trump-Musk Blow-Out Has Dana Bash Saying 'Wow, Wow, Wow' 'My Prediction': Jimmy Kimmel Reveals Ugly Next Phase Of Trump-Musk Feud
