Texas House Republicans unveil new congressional map that looks to pick up five GOP seats

Yahoo

3 days ago

Texas GOP lawmakers released their first draft of the state's new congressional map Wednesday, proposing revamped district lines that attempt to flip five Democratic seats in next year's midterm elections.
The new map targets Democratic members of Congress in the Austin, Dallas and Houston metro areas and in South Texas. The draft, unveiled by Corpus Christi Republican Rep. Todd Hunter, will likely change before the final map is approved by both chambers and signed by Gov. Greg Abbott. Democrats have said they might try to thwart the process by fleeing the state.
This unusual mid-decade redistricting comes after a pressure campaign waged by President Donald Trump's political team in the hopes of padding Republicans' narrow majority in the U.S. House.
Currently, Republicans hold 25 of Texas' 38 House seats. Trump carried 27 of those districts in 2024, including those won by Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen.
Under the proposed new lines, 30 districts would have gone to Trump last year, each by at least 10 percentage points.
The districts represented by Cuellar and Gonzalez — both of which are overwhelmingly Hispanic and anchored in South Texas — would become slightly more favorable to Republicans. Trump received 53% and 52% in those districts, respectively, in 2024; under the new proposed lines, he would have gotten almost 55% in both districts.
Also targeted are Democratic Reps. Julie Johnson of Farmers Branch — whose Dallas-anchored district would be reshaped to favor Republicans — and Marc Veasey of Fort Worth, whose nearby district would remain solidly blue but drop all of Fort Worth — Veasey's hometown and political base. That seat — now solely in Dallas County — contains parts of Johnson's, Veasey's and Rep. Jasmine Crockett's current district, raising the prospect of a primary between Veasey and Johnson.
The map's newly proposed GOP seat in Central Texas also triggers the prospect of Austin Democratic Reps. Greg Casar and Lloyd Doggett facing each other in a primary for the area's lone remaining blue district. To avoid that scenario, one of the two would have to step aside or run an uphill race for a new Central Texas district, based in San Antonio, that Trump would have won by 10 points.
In the Houston area, the proposed map would remake four Democratic districts. The biggest upheaval would be in the 9th Congressional District, a majority-minority seat represented by Rep. Al Green that currently covers the southern part of Harris County and its direct southern neighbors. It would shift to the eastern parts of Houston, where no current member of Congress lives. Instead of being a seat that Vice President Kamala Harris won by 44 percent under the current boundary, Trump would have won it by 15 percent.
Texas' Republican-dominated Legislature last drew these maps in 2021, with an eye toward protecting incumbents by making their seats as safe as possible. Trump won every Republican-held Texas district in 2024 by double-digit margins, as did every GOP incumbent who received a Democratic opponent. Edinburg Rep. Monica De La Cruz's 14-point victory was the closest of any winning Republican.
To pick up new seats, Republicans have proposed to pack more Democratic voters into districts in the state's blue urban centers, giving Democrats even bigger margins in districts they already control, such as those represented by Crockett, Rep. Joaquin Castro in San Antonio and Rep. Sylvia Garcia in Houston. And they're looking to disperse Republican voters from safely red districts into several districts currently represented by Democrats, such as the ones held by Johnson and Casar.
No Republican incumbents' districts were made significantly more competitive.
The map-drawers managed to move more Republican voters into Democratic districts around Dallas and Houston without imperiling the nearby seats of GOP Reps. Beth Van Duyne, R-Irving and Troy Nehls, R-Fort Bend. Both faced competitive races in 2020 before their districts were redrawn in 2021 to become solidly Republican, and neither was made to sacrifice those gains in the state House's initial map.
The changes would create two more districts in which white residents make up a majority of eligible voters, or citizens who are old enough to vote, hiking the number of such districts from 22 under the current map to 24. Hispanic residents — the state's largest demographic group, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates — currently form the majority of eligible voters in seven districts, a total that would rise to eight under the new plan.
Four of the five districts that Republicans have drawn with the intention of flipping are now majority-Hispanic — though the Hispanic populations in the new seats in Houston and Central Texas are almost exactly 50%.
The proposed map would also create two majority Black districts, where previously there were none. Among them is the Houston-centered 18th Congressional District, which has been represented by a decades-long run of renowned Black Democratic members, including Barbara Jordan, Mickey Leland, Sheila Jackson Lee and, most recently, Sylvester Turner, whose death in March left the seat vacant. The map proposes to pack even more Democratic voters into the solidly blue seat: Harris won the district with 69% in 2024 and would have carried it with 76% under the new boundaries.
Crockett's Dallas seat would also become majority Black.
The 18th District was among Texas' four majority-minority congressional seats flagged by the U.S. Department of Justice as unconstitutional racial gerrymanders, a charge Texas Republicans have interchangeably denied in court and cited as the basis for pursuing mid-decade redistricting.
Any new map will inevitably be challenged in court. Courts have found that at least one of Texas' maps violated the Voting Rights Act every decade since it went into effect in the mid-60s. The current map is still being challenged in federal court in El Paso, with no verdict yet reached.
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