MAGA-inspired outrage machine has a new target in this election
'Never make predictions, especially about the future,' New York Yankees manager Casey Stengel famously said. In the sport of politics we are in peak prediction mode this week – and Saturday night will reveal what surprises are in store.
I've been part of many elections where the polls have got it spectacularly wrong – most shockingly in Labor's 2019 loss and most painfully in Donald Trump's 2016 win.
Both were a result of the fact that while we obsess about the number of people who report a certain opinion at a given moment in time, we pay much less attention to the strength of that opinion. Large and unpredicted swings between polls and actual results are usually a reflection of the 'softness' of the opinions held by those being polled – the likeliness they will change their mind. Too often we report public opinion as if it is chiselled in stone.
We experienced this collectively as a nation in 2023. The prime minister, encouraged by polls that showed up to 75 per cent support for an Indigenous Voice to parliament, ploughed ahead with a referendum to enshrine it even after Peter Dutton's denial of bipartisanship.
As we found out, in the face of a barrage of unprecedented disinformation and a sophisticated MAGA-inspired outrage machine, that support turned out to be very soft. Over the course of the campaign it evaporated – on polling day the Yes vote garnered less than 40 per cent.
Similarly, we have in recent years taken the same levels of support for renewable energy as if they are chiselled in stone. More than 70 per cent of Australians support the transition to renewables, and more ambitious climate targets. Most pundits take broad social licence for a transition to clean energy – a fancy way of saying the community is on board – as a fait accompli.
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But renewable energy is right now facing a barrage of unprecedented disinformation and a sophisticated MAGA-inspired outrage machine, akin to what we saw during the Voice. Its very purpose is to undermine the social licence under which renewable energy projects operate. Having lost the argument on the existence of climate change, as the world proceeded to burn before our eyes, opponents quickly pivoted instead to undermining support for renewables.
While the Voice had to withstand a torrent of misinformation-based attacks on social media, from 'say NO to save Australia Day' to 'farmers will need a permit to put up a fence', renewables face the same.
Social media is ripe with anti-renewables outrage. Hysteria over offshore wind farms killing whales (they don't). Hysteria over solar fields ruining pristine farmland (they don't). Hysteria over vehicle fuel-emissions standards banning utes (they don't) or ruining the weekend (they don't).
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Trump deploys Marines, raising tensions in Los Angeles protests
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Recent opinion polling showed 60 per cent of Tasmanians were also against the development. Tasmania faces days of political uncertainty with a request by the state's embattled premier for a snap poll being considered by the governor. Jeremy Rockliff made the drive to Government House on Tuesday evening to meet with Governor Barbara Baker, five days after he lost the confidence of the parliament. "Following their conversation, Her Excellency is now taking the time necessary to give due consideration to all available options," Government House official secretary David Hughes said. "By the end of the week the premier will meet with Her Excellency again. Further statements will be made in due course." Mr Rockliff has refused to resign after losing Thursday's vote of no-confidence, putting the state on a seemingly unavoidable collision course with an election. It is not clear whether Ms Baker will ask the Liberals to find a new leader and premier, which would remove the need for a poll. Former senator Eric Abetz, Deputy Premier Guy Barnett and ex-deputy Michael Ferguson are among Liberal leadership options. Labor, which has just 10 seats, has ruled out forming a minority government in alliance with the five-seat Greens plus members of the crossbench. Tasmania is staring down the barrel of its fourth election in seven years. The Liberals were returned to power in minority in March 2024 with 14 of 35 lower-house seats. "I respect the need for her excellency to take the appropriate time to consider important matters of state," Mr Rockliff said in a statement. "I remain committed to serving the people of Tasmania." The no-confidence motion was put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbench independent MPs. Labor said the motion against Mr Rockliff was necessary because of his financial "mismanagement" and poor handling of delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries. Labor was ready to contest an election, MP Josh Willie told parliament. His party would enter a campaign without veteran MP and Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, who announced on Tuesday she would not run again. Ms O'Byrne, elected to state parliament in 2006, criticised parliament's dysfunction. "If minority government is the way of the future then it requires us all to behave differently," she told parliament. "We have to have the maturity to not do things just because we can. The events of the last week have proven that." Election battle lines have already been drawn, with the Liberals dropping a plan to investigate public asset sales and announcing former federal MP Bridget Archer would run in Bass. Liberal MP Felix Ellis said the party was "united" behind Mr Rockliff. A plan for a $945 million stadium at Hobart's Macquarie Point, a condition of the Tasmania Devils entering the AFL in 2028, is likely to be a major issue for potential voters. The project is backed by the Liberals and Labor but the Greens and several crossbenchers are opposed. Recent opinion polling showed 60 per cent of Tasmanians were also against the development. Tasmania faces days of political uncertainty with a request by the state's embattled premier for a snap poll being considered by the governor. Jeremy Rockliff made the drive to Government House on Tuesday evening to meet with Governor Barbara Baker, five days after he lost the confidence of the parliament. "Following their conversation, Her Excellency is now taking the time necessary to give due consideration to all available options," Government House official secretary David Hughes said. "By the end of the week the premier will meet with Her Excellency again. Further statements will be made in due course." Mr Rockliff has refused to resign after losing Thursday's vote of no-confidence, putting the state on a seemingly unavoidable collision course with an election. It is not clear whether Ms Baker will ask the Liberals to find a new leader and premier, which would remove the need for a poll. Former senator Eric Abetz, Deputy Premier Guy Barnett and ex-deputy Michael Ferguson are among Liberal leadership options. Labor, which has just 10 seats, has ruled out forming a minority government in alliance with the five-seat Greens plus members of the crossbench. Tasmania is staring down the barrel of its fourth election in seven years. The Liberals were returned to power in minority in March 2024 with 14 of 35 lower-house seats. "I respect the need for her excellency to take the appropriate time to consider important matters of state," Mr Rockliff said in a statement. "I remain committed to serving the people of Tasmania." The no-confidence motion was put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbench independent MPs. Labor said the motion against Mr Rockliff was necessary because of his financial "mismanagement" and poor handling of delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries. Labor was ready to contest an election, MP Josh Willie told parliament. His party would enter a campaign without veteran MP and Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, who announced on Tuesday she would not run again. Ms O'Byrne, elected to state parliament in 2006, criticised parliament's dysfunction. "If minority government is the way of the future then it requires us all to behave differently," she told parliament. "We have to have the maturity to not do things just because we can. The events of the last week have proven that." Election battle lines have already been drawn, with the Liberals dropping a plan to investigate public asset sales and announcing former federal MP Bridget Archer would run in Bass. Liberal MP Felix Ellis said the party was "united" behind Mr Rockliff. A plan for a $945 million stadium at Hobart's Macquarie Point, a condition of the Tasmania Devils entering the AFL in 2028, is likely to be a major issue for potential voters. The project is backed by the Liberals and Labor but the Greens and several crossbenchers are opposed. Recent opinion polling showed 60 per cent of Tasmanians were also against the development. Tasmania faces days of political uncertainty with a request by the state's embattled premier for a snap poll being considered by the governor. Jeremy Rockliff made the drive to Government House on Tuesday evening to meet with Governor Barbara Baker, five days after he lost the confidence of the parliament. "Following their conversation, Her Excellency is now taking the time necessary to give due consideration to all available options," Government House official secretary David Hughes said. "By the end of the week the premier will meet with Her Excellency again. Further statements will be made in due course." Mr Rockliff has refused to resign after losing Thursday's vote of no-confidence, putting the state on a seemingly unavoidable collision course with an election. It is not clear whether Ms Baker will ask the Liberals to find a new leader and premier, which would remove the need for a poll. Former senator Eric Abetz, Deputy Premier Guy Barnett and ex-deputy Michael Ferguson are among Liberal leadership options. Labor, which has just 10 seats, has ruled out forming a minority government in alliance with the five-seat Greens plus members of the crossbench. Tasmania is staring down the barrel of its fourth election in seven years. The Liberals were returned to power in minority in March 2024 with 14 of 35 lower-house seats. "I respect the need for her excellency to take the appropriate time to consider important matters of state," Mr Rockliff said in a statement. "I remain committed to serving the people of Tasmania." The no-confidence motion was put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbench independent MPs. Labor said the motion against Mr Rockliff was necessary because of his financial "mismanagement" and poor handling of delayed and over-budget new Bass Strait ferries. Labor was ready to contest an election, MP Josh Willie told parliament. His party would enter a campaign without veteran MP and Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, who announced on Tuesday she would not run again. Ms O'Byrne, elected to state parliament in 2006, criticised parliament's dysfunction. "If minority government is the way of the future then it requires us all to behave differently," she told parliament. "We have to have the maturity to not do things just because we can. The events of the last week have proven that." Election battle lines have already been drawn, with the Liberals dropping a plan to investigate public asset sales and announcing former federal MP Bridget Archer would run in Bass. Liberal MP Felix Ellis said the party was "united" behind Mr Rockliff. A plan for a $945 million stadium at Hobart's Macquarie Point, a condition of the Tasmania Devils entering the AFL in 2028, is likely to be a major issue for potential voters. The project is backed by the Liberals and Labor but the Greens and several crossbenchers are opposed. Recent opinion polling showed 60 per cent of Tasmanians were also against the development.
The Advertiser
an hour ago
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Economic summit aims to firm up drooping productivity
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"It's the private sector that drives an economy. What the public sector should do is facilitate private sector activity and private sector investment." The Productivity Commissioner's most recent report showed labour productivity fell 0.1 per cent in the December quarter and dropped 1.2 per cent in the past year. The Business Council of Australia says productivity growth over the past decade has been the lowest in 60 years. Council chief executive Bran Black welcomed the roundtable, saying "lifting business investment is essential to boosting productivity, lifting real wages, creating jobs and ensuring more opportunity for more Australians". "We will continue to be very clear about policies that the business community believes will be counterproductive to improving productivity," he said. Mr Albanese said he wanted a boost to productivity, alongside other economic indicators as part of his second-term agenda. "We want to build an economy where growth, wages and productivity rise together," he said. "The starting point for our government is clear. Our plan for economic growth and productivity is about Australians earning more and keeping more of what they earn." ACTU secretary Sally McManus said working Australians must be at the centre of the roundtable. "We need to leave behind the idea that productivity is equated with cutting pay and making people work harder for less," she said. "We have a common interest in addressing the challenges we face and when we work together our country is at its best." Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Andrew McKellar said boosting productivity was essential for economic growth. "The business community looks forward to participating in the summit and contributing constructive and sensible ideas to address the problem," he said. Shadow treasurer Ted O'Brien said the roundtable could amount to nothing but a talkfest. "Anthony Albanese has actively sought to undermine productivity by abolishing structures to drive it," he said. "He also saddled the economy with thousands of new regulations in the last parliament. "If this change of heart by Labor is true, it will be akin to turning around the Titanic." The prime minister announced Jenny Wilkinson would become the first female Treasury secretary. Ms Wilkinson, who heads the Department of Finance, will replace Steven Kennedy, who will become the nation's most senior public servant as head of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. They will begin their new roles on Monday for five-year terms. An economic summit on lifting lagging productivity rates can serve common interests for the business sector and unions, the prime minister says. Anthony Albanese has announced plans for a productivity roundtable in August in Canberra to shape the nation's economic growth. Experts have expressed concern about Australia's lagging rate of productivity, a key economic measure of efficiency and long-term driver of improved living standards. Despite criticism previous economic summits were too slanted towards unions, Mr Albanese said outcomes from the roundtable had not been decided. He called for a mature discussion from all parties, noting it was in everyone's interest for productivity to improve. "We're a Labor government, we support unions existing ... but we will always respect both the role of business and the role of unions," he told the National Press Club on Tuesday. "There are common interests ... you don't get union members unless you've got successful employers. "It's the private sector that drives an economy. What the public sector should do is facilitate private sector activity and private sector investment." The Productivity Commissioner's most recent report showed labour productivity fell 0.1 per cent in the December quarter and dropped 1.2 per cent in the past year. The Business Council of Australia says productivity growth over the past decade has been the lowest in 60 years. Council chief executive Bran Black welcomed the roundtable, saying "lifting business investment is essential to boosting productivity, lifting real wages, creating jobs and ensuring more opportunity for more Australians". "We will continue to be very clear about policies that the business community believes will be counterproductive to improving productivity," he said. Mr Albanese said he wanted a boost to productivity, alongside other economic indicators as part of his second-term agenda. "We want to build an economy where growth, wages and productivity rise together," he said. "The starting point for our government is clear. Our plan for economic growth and productivity is about Australians earning more and keeping more of what they earn." ACTU secretary Sally McManus said working Australians must be at the centre of the roundtable. "We need to leave behind the idea that productivity is equated with cutting pay and making people work harder for less," she said. "We have a common interest in addressing the challenges we face and when we work together our country is at its best." Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Andrew McKellar said boosting productivity was essential for economic growth. "The business community looks forward to participating in the summit and contributing constructive and sensible ideas to address the problem," he said. Shadow treasurer Ted O'Brien said the roundtable could amount to nothing but a talkfest. "Anthony Albanese has actively sought to undermine productivity by abolishing structures to drive it," he said. "He also saddled the economy with thousands of new regulations in the last parliament. "If this change of heart by Labor is true, it will be akin to turning around the Titanic." The prime minister announced Jenny Wilkinson would become the first female Treasury secretary. Ms Wilkinson, who heads the Department of Finance, will replace Steven Kennedy, who will become the nation's most senior public servant as head of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. They will begin their new roles on Monday for five-year terms. An economic summit on lifting lagging productivity rates can serve common interests for the business sector and unions, the prime minister says. Anthony Albanese has announced plans for a productivity roundtable in August in Canberra to shape the nation's economic growth. Experts have expressed concern about Australia's lagging rate of productivity, a key economic measure of efficiency and long-term driver of improved living standards. Despite criticism previous economic summits were too slanted towards unions, Mr Albanese said outcomes from the roundtable had not been decided. He called for a mature discussion from all parties, noting it was in everyone's interest for productivity to improve. "We're a Labor government, we support unions existing ... but we will always respect both the role of business and the role of unions," he told the National Press Club on Tuesday. "There are common interests ... you don't get union members unless you've got successful employers. "It's the private sector that drives an economy. What the public sector should do is facilitate private sector activity and private sector investment." The Productivity Commissioner's most recent report showed labour productivity fell 0.1 per cent in the December quarter and dropped 1.2 per cent in the past year. The Business Council of Australia says productivity growth over the past decade has been the lowest in 60 years. Council chief executive Bran Black welcomed the roundtable, saying "lifting business investment is essential to boosting productivity, lifting real wages, creating jobs and ensuring more opportunity for more Australians". "We will continue to be very clear about policies that the business community believes will be counterproductive to improving productivity," he said. Mr Albanese said he wanted a boost to productivity, alongside other economic indicators as part of his second-term agenda. "We want to build an economy where growth, wages and productivity rise together," he said. "The starting point for our government is clear. Our plan for economic growth and productivity is about Australians earning more and keeping more of what they earn." ACTU secretary Sally McManus said working Australians must be at the centre of the roundtable. "We need to leave behind the idea that productivity is equated with cutting pay and making people work harder for less," she said. "We have a common interest in addressing the challenges we face and when we work together our country is at its best." Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Andrew McKellar said boosting productivity was essential for economic growth. "The business community looks forward to participating in the summit and contributing constructive and sensible ideas to address the problem," he said. Shadow treasurer Ted O'Brien said the roundtable could amount to nothing but a talkfest. "Anthony Albanese has actively sought to undermine productivity by abolishing structures to drive it," he said. "He also saddled the economy with thousands of new regulations in the last parliament. "If this change of heart by Labor is true, it will be akin to turning around the Titanic." The prime minister announced Jenny Wilkinson would become the first female Treasury secretary. Ms Wilkinson, who heads the Department of Finance, will replace Steven Kennedy, who will become the nation's most senior public servant as head of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. They will begin their new roles on Monday for five-year terms. An economic summit on lifting lagging productivity rates can serve common interests for the business sector and unions, the prime minister says. Anthony Albanese has announced plans for a productivity roundtable in August in Canberra to shape the nation's economic growth. Experts have expressed concern about Australia's lagging rate of productivity, a key economic measure of efficiency and long-term driver of improved living standards. Despite criticism previous economic summits were too slanted towards unions, Mr Albanese said outcomes from the roundtable had not been decided. He called for a mature discussion from all parties, noting it was in everyone's interest for productivity to improve. "We're a Labor government, we support unions existing ... but we will always respect both the role of business and the role of unions," he told the National Press Club on Tuesday. "There are common interests ... you don't get union members unless you've got successful employers. "It's the private sector that drives an economy. What the public sector should do is facilitate private sector activity and private sector investment." The Productivity Commissioner's most recent report showed labour productivity fell 0.1 per cent in the December quarter and dropped 1.2 per cent in the past year. The Business Council of Australia says productivity growth over the past decade has been the lowest in 60 years. Council chief executive Bran Black welcomed the roundtable, saying "lifting business investment is essential to boosting productivity, lifting real wages, creating jobs and ensuring more opportunity for more Australians". "We will continue to be very clear about policies that the business community believes will be counterproductive to improving productivity," he said. Mr Albanese said he wanted a boost to productivity, alongside other economic indicators as part of his second-term agenda. "We want to build an economy where growth, wages and productivity rise together," he said. "The starting point for our government is clear. Our plan for economic growth and productivity is about Australians earning more and keeping more of what they earn." ACTU secretary Sally McManus said working Australians must be at the centre of the roundtable. "We need to leave behind the idea that productivity is equated with cutting pay and making people work harder for less," she said. "We have a common interest in addressing the challenges we face and when we work together our country is at its best." Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Andrew McKellar said boosting productivity was essential for economic growth. "The business community looks forward to participating in the summit and contributing constructive and sensible ideas to address the problem," he said. Shadow treasurer Ted O'Brien said the roundtable could amount to nothing but a talkfest. "Anthony Albanese has actively sought to undermine productivity by abolishing structures to drive it," he said. "He also saddled the economy with thousands of new regulations in the last parliament. "If this change of heart by Labor is true, it will be akin to turning around the Titanic." The prime minister announced Jenny Wilkinson would become the first female Treasury secretary. Ms Wilkinson, who heads the Department of Finance, will replace Steven Kennedy, who will become the nation's most senior public servant as head of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. They will begin their new roles on Monday for five-year terms.
