
Philippines set for ‘more robust' Balikatan joint drills, but no mention of Typhon
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Without giving detailed information on the dates and number of soldiers slated to join the drills, Brigadier General Michael Logico, Balikatan's executive agent, said last week that the 40th Balikatan exercises would be a full battle test.
'There will be participation coming from the Australian Defence Force and the Japanese Self Defence Force,' Logico told reporters at a briefing after a live fire exercise last week in Capas, Tarlac, adding he was waiting for 'newer developments from other countries' before giving further details on this year's Balikatan.
Like last year, the drills will feature sinking exercises 12 nautical miles outside the Philippines' territorial waters.
The Typhon missile system was deployed in the Philippines during the first phase of the Salaknib exercise in April of last year and used in the Balikatan joint exercises the following month.
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Muhammad Faizal Bin Abdul Rahman, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, told This Week in Asia the coming Balikatan drills would continue to serve as a deterrent against China along the first island chain, where Philippine interests in the South China Sea and the security of the Taiwan Strait were implicitly linked.
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AllAfrica
34 minutes ago
- AllAfrica
Inequality, taxes and a false fiscal dilemma in Singapore
Since its inception, Singapore's paramount economic advantage has lain in its seamless integration with global markets, attracting vast foreign investment and driving trade flows that transformed it from a sleepy entrepot into a burgeoning metropolis. Yet the turbulence unleashed by Donald Trump's tariff wars has starkly illuminated how such openness can become a strategic liability. With Singapore's GDP forecast for 2025 recently slashed to a mere 1.7% — a precipitous decline from the twenty-year average of 4.2% — it's time to reconsider the island-nation's fiscal paradigm to catalyze economic stimulus and fortify long-term resilience. Two fiscal levers merit particular scrutiny: the Goods and Services Tax (GST), a 9% consumption levy and the Net Investment Returns Contribution (NIRC), which channels returns from GIC, Temasek and the Monetary Authority of Singapore into the national budget. Parliamentary discourse has misleadingly cast these instruments in binary terms. The Workers' Party and Progress Singapore Party have advocated increasing the share of the NIRC used for public spending from 50% to 60%, potentially unlocking S$4 billion to S$5 billion (US$3.1 billion to US$3.9 billion) annually to boost the economy and strengthen social safety nets. Both have also proposed targeted GST relief, whether through the PSP's call for a rollback to 7%, or the WP's push for exemptions on essential goods. Meanwhile, the incumbent People's Action Party (PAP) remains wedded to the austere status quo, preserving the full GST rate while stockpiling national reserves for our 'rainy day fund.' To avert further economic torpor, Singapore must confront its two greatest exigencies: persistent inequality and an impending demographic crisis. The PAP should therefore harness the full spectrum of government resources by synthesizing salient opposition fiscal proposals into a hybrid framework — maintaining the existing GST structure while augmenting NIRC expenditure. Contrary to the PAP's postulations, Singapore has considerable scope to responsibly expand NIRC spending. The party routinely echoes the plight of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis as proof that insufficient reserves can catalyze currency collapses. But this narrative is patchy at best. Those countries suffered from profound structural vulnerabilities, including fragile financial systems, vast short-term foreign-currency debts and inadequate reserves. Even South Korea, which benefitted from relatively robust investor confidence, was beset by comparable systemic risks, as exemplified by its parlously overleveraged chaebols and limited domestic savings base. None of these conditions applies to contemporary Singapore. With a meticulously regulated financial system, Singapore is the only country in Asia to boast a AAA credit rating. The country commands approximately US$511 billion in foreign exchange reserves. This comprises a minute fraction of the total estimated S$1.9 trillion, yielding an extraordinary reserves-to-GDP ratio of just under 300%, one rivaled only by resource-rich states such as Qatar and Norway. Crucially, the WP and PSP merely wish to modestly increase the share of investment returns allocated for public expenditure, not the assets themselves – hardly a radical adjustment that would imperil the country's formidable fiscal bulwark. The government's stringent criteria for reserve utilization further underline the infrequency with which such funds are deployed; over the past two decades, reserves have been tapped only twice: S$4.9 billion during the 2008 global financial crisis (which was fully replenished within two years), and S$40 billion amid the highly unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic. Former Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's admonition to restrain NIRC spending, given the unpredictability of future crises ranging from geopolitical upheavals to climate threats, should buttress rather than diminish the imperative to address pressing domestic challenges. Unmitigated, these internal issues could pose even graver risks to Singapore's long-term prosperity, increasing the necessity for emergency withdrawals in future crises. The merits of raising public spending also rationalize maintaining the GST at its current rate. While the WP and PSP rightly highlight its disproportionate burden on lower-income households, the GST confers irreplaceable advantages. It preserves Singapore's fiscal flexibility to sustain ultra-competitive personal and corporate tax rates, a pivotal asset given the city-state's dependence on foreign capital inflows. Moreover, the PAP correctly notes that as a broad-based consumption tax, GST revenue is significantly underpinned by tourists, expatriates, and the wealthiest 20% of residents, who account for 70% of total collections. Instead, transfer schemes such as GST-V should be bolstered to mitigate the GST's regressive impact. Inequality remains alarmingly rampant; even after accounting for such transfers, the bottom 10% and 20% of households only earn 15% and 30% of the median income, respectively, disparities that are both morally indefensible and economically detrimental. Financial insecurity deters lower-income individuals from risk-taking, whether by seeking better-suited employment or entrepreneurial ventures such as heartland food stalls, thereby stifling overall productivity. Furthermore, this inequity renders these groups disproportionately susceptible to economic shocks, escalating the future fiscal burden of crisis support. 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NIRC and GST revenues could meaningfully alleviate these pressures, chiefly by subsidizing housing and childcare and enabling businesses to adopt more flexible work arrangements. Admittedly, many countries, such as Russia and Hungary, have expended mammoth resources into reversing their population declines, only to see minimal results. But Singapore's enviable economic fundamentals could make similar measures far more efficacious, as demonstrated by Sweden's success in the early 1990s, where sustained family support during an economic boom lifted fertility rates even above replacement levels. With renewed global economic uncertainty on the horizon, coupled with the longstanding pressures of inequality and demographics, Singapore's political leaders can ill afford to obdurately cling to their reductive views of the GST and NIRC. Rather, they must recognize both as complementary levers to amplify public investment, uplifting present well-being while safeguarding the future. Sean Tan is a former King's Scholar at Eton College and intern at the Center for International Governance Innovation. He has also written articles for St Antony's International Review Oxford, Yale's undergraduate US-China magazine 'China Hands', Oxford Political Review and several other notable publications.


AllAfrica
an hour ago
- AllAfrica
India's hand in Trump tariff row stronger than it looks
On August 6, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order doubling tariffs on most Indian exports to the United States, raising the rate from 25 to 50%. The decision, set to take effect later this month, was justified on grounds of trade imbalances and New Delhi's continued discounted purchases of sanctioned Russian oil. The escalation marks the sharpest deterioration in US-India trade relations in decades. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has denounced the measures as 'unfair and unjustified,' noting that other major buyers of Russian crude have not been penalized. 'We will protect our farmers and our domestic interests, even if we must pay a heavy price,' he told a rally in Gujarat in response to the tariffs. Within days, India announced a pause on planned US defense acquisitions — a not-so-subtle signal that its strategic options extend far beyond the Pentagon's procurement lists. Senior officials have begun mapping out a menu of counter-moves, from limited retaliatory tariffs to deeper integration with BRICS partners and other non-Western economies. To understand why India is in no rush to fold, it is worth taking stock of how the balance of power has shifted. First, BRICS itself has shaped into a US$32.5 trillion economic coalition after the addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Indonesia. The enlarged group now represents roughly 30–40% of global GDP and accounts for over a fifth of world trade. This is not yet a substitute for the G7 ($46.8 trillion), but it is a credible alternative pole. Second, while the US dollar remains dominant, accounting for around 58% of global reserves and cross-border transactions, its share has been steadily declining, from 72% in 2000. India's trade with Russia, which surged to around $65–69 billion last fiscal year, is increasingly settled in rupees and rubles, bypassing the dollar entirely. Similar currency-swap arrangements with the UAE and other partners are quietly expanding. Third, India's role in critical global supply chains gives it built-in leverage. The country produces about 60 percent of the world's generic medicines and exported $28 billion worth of pharmaceuticals in 2023–24. Its IT and ICT services exports, worth roughly $150 billion annually, are heavily embedded in US corporate operations, from Silicon Valley's software pipelines to Wall Street's back-office systems. Tariffs on Indian goods thus risk boomeranging onto American companies and consumers. Modi's real advantage lies in what analysts such as Nishant Rajeev call 'multi-alignment' or 'optionality,' the skill of pivoting among multiple partners and platforms without locking into any single one. India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar framed this strategic agility in Foreign Policy as the freedom to choose partners based on interests rather than on emotion or prejudice. India's $3.4 trillion economy and 1.4 billion market give it scale; its BRICS membership, combined with Quad, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and G20 roles, gives it reach. This unique positioning allows New Delhi to keep one foot in the Western security architecture while cultivating deep ties to Russia, Iran, the Gulf, and Central Asia. Optionality has a financial dimension too: the more India settles trade in local currencies, the less exposed it is to US financial leverage. That, in turn, blunts the coercive edge of both sanctions and tariffs. Washington's wager appears to be that punitive tariffs will force India into strategic compliance. History suggests otherwise. Sustained tariff wars often prompt global supply chains to reroute, and the early signs here point to a similar outcome. Rather than isolating India, higher tariffs may accelerate the very multipolarity the US seeks to contain. Trade diversion toward BRICS partners, the Gulf and ASEAN could deepen alternative payment systems and standards. Politically, the optics of coercion from Washington may play into Modi's domestic narrative of sovereign resilience, especially in the run-up to state elections. There are domestic costs for the US as well. More expensive Indian pharmaceuticals could raise healthcare costs, while disruption in IT services risks operational headaches for US firms. In a tight labor market for STEM talent, alienating a country that produces over half a million new engineering graduates each year is a questionable move. Seen through this lens, Trump's tariff escalation risks becoming a strategic own goal. It undermines the bipartisan effort of the past two decades to position India as a counterbalance to China. It also introduces uncertainty into defense cooperation, just as Washington is seeking to strengthen maritime deterrence in the Indo-Pacific via essentially the Quad. More fundamentally, it sends a message that US economic statecraft is increasingly zero-sum, a framing that will nudge other swing states toward hedging strategies. In that world, India will not stand alone: it will be joined by BRICS and several mid-sized powers seeking insulation from great-power coercion. If Trump's goal is actually to keep India close, a more sophisticated approach would blend incentives with calibrated pressure. That could mean reviving stalled trade talks, offering targeted supply-chain co-investment in sectors like semiconductors and AI and easing market-access irritants in agriculture and services. Such engagement would not preclude firm conversations about Russia, but it would avoid the trap of punitive measures that push India further into BRICS and alternative coalitions. Modi's India will not back down from a challenge; it will build around it. The more the West applies pressure, the more New Delhi is likely to deepen its ties with BRICS and other non-Western coalitions that offer strategic autonomy in a multipolar world. Ricardo Martins holds a PhD in sociology with a specialization in geopolitics and international relations and an advanced studies certificate in international trade. He is based in the Netherlands.


AllAfrica
3 hours ago
- AllAfrica
China's AIIB isn't too young to act and invest responsibly
In June 2025, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) marked its tenth anniversary at its annual meeting. Outgoing president Jin Liqun gave opening remarks, invoking Chinese President Xi's original vision of the Bank to become a true multilateral institution and celebrating its commitment to 'integrity, transparency, inclusiveness, and a results-oriented approach.' Unfortunately, the bank's track record reveals a different story. As representatives of Accountability Counsel, we attended the same meeting to advocate for the Bank to be more responsible when its financing contributes to negative impacts on local communities. In particular, we called for much-needed reforms to the AIIB's accountability mechanism, called the Project-Affected People's Mechanism, so that the AIIB can easily hear directly from local communities and facilitate action to either prevent or remediate harm. The AIIB's project financing has been linked to involuntary displacement, loss of livelihood and environmental destruction in Indonesia, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and elsewhere. And yet, the AIIB's official channel for hearing about and addressing such concerns–its accountability mechanism–is broken. That's most clearly evidenced by the fact that the AIIB's accountability mechanism has yet to accept a single case as eligible. In response to our concerns, we were asked to be patient. As a 10-year-old bank, AIIB was still young, still growing up and not ready to be compared to other multilateral institutions. It is understandable that the bank will make mistakes and that it will need to continually evolve. What is unacceptable is that while AIIB takes its time to mature, people and the planet bear the consequences. As a part of its operating model, the AIIB skirts responsibility by shifting its legal and institutional responsibility onto peer institutions. AIIB's 'lean, clean, and green' model moves money quickly and with little oversight. The bank has financed more than US$60 billion during its first 10 years, a significant portion of which was committed through co-financing agreements with other multilateral development banks. As part of these agreements, the AIIB delegates the implementation and monitoring of environmental and social standards to the co-financing institution. As of 2024, AIIB claims that for 113 projects, worth $23.3 billion – including large infrastructure projects like hydropower, metro rail, airport extensions – it does not bear the responsibility to prevent or remediate harm to local communities. This statistic is a part of a worrisome pattern of the AIIB evading its obligations to local communities and the environment. Even when AIIB is the sole financier and therefore solely responsible for overseeing the implementation of its own environmental and social standards, its own accountability mechanism has never once independently reviewed whether the bank is following its own rules, nor whether its rules are adequate to prevent, mitigate and remediate environmental and social harms. Here, too, AIIB delegates its responsibility down to clients and project implementers, requiring them to resolve issues so that the AIIB does not have to. Even worse, under the guise of localization, AIIB requires communities whose lives, livelihoods, and environments are at risk from AIIB's investments to try to first seek redress from the project implementers who've contributed to the harm in the first place. This is the case, despite AIIB staff's own admission, project-level redress channels don't always exist and vary widely in effectiveness. This year, AIIB has an opportunity to prove that it is ready to enter its next decade as a responsible investor. The policy of the AIIB's accountability mechanism is undergoing an official and public review, with a draft policy published just days after the AIIB's Annual Meeting concluded. Improvements to that policy would be proof that the AIIB is ready to be accessible and accountable to the communities it impacts. An independent expert has already published a list of policy improvements, a majority of which are yet to be adopted. We're calling for the AIIB to adopt three concrete improvements: The AIIB's accountability mechanism should allow communities to directly file complaints to it without first attempting other avenues. Because of current access barriers, communities are either unable to or choosing not to raise complaints, leaving the bank vulnerable and unaware of unsustainable aspects of its projects. The AIIB's accountability mechanism, its president and its board should have the power to call for an investigation into whether a project complies with AIIB's environmental and social standards. The AIIB is responsible for compliance with its own rules, so it should be able to initiate an independent investigation even if no complaint is filed. The AIIB's accountability mechanism policy should be reviewed every five years to ensure that it is maturing alongside the bank. This is standard practice to ensure that AIIB's policies and practices don't become outdated. If the bank adopts these changes, we will applaud the bank's evolution towards responsible investing. If the bank does not adopt these changes, we will have proof that the bank cares more about itself than its mission. The AIIB does not have to be the same as other multilateral development banks; indeed, its promise lies in new approaches it can bring to improve upon past development practices. Regardless of its approach, however, the AIIB does have to be responsible for its impacts–both positive and negative–on people and the planet. As of its 10th anniversary, the AIIB has not exercised that responsibility. Instead, AIIB has acted like a ten-year-old child, wanting praise without responsibility. Radhika Goyal and Margaux Day are with Accountability Council, a San Francisco-based independent watchdog organization that advocates for people who have been harmed by internationally-financed projects such as dams, mines and oil pipelines.