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Anchorage for empires? Putin eyes Trump's nod for victory and next invasion at Alaska summit
US President Donald Trump (left) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin shake hands before attending a joint press conference after a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, on July 16, 2018. (Photo: Yuri Kadobnov/AFP)
Beyond ceasefires and territorial swaps, Vladimir Putin's top agenda for the summit in Alaska with President Donald Trump could apparently be his goal to restore the Russian empire — an aum that has shaped his every decision since the late 1990s.
Ahead of the summit, Putin has made it clear that he does not seek to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine but secure Trump's seal of approval for the Russian victory in Ukraine. Once formally victorious in Ukraine, Putin could set his eyes on the next target in Europe that could be any country from Lithuania to Moldova.
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Even as Trump has talked of ceasefires, land swaps, and trade incentives, to reach a middle ground to end the war, Putin has not budged, and continued to press his maximalist demands. On the back of continued support from allies and battlefield gains in recent weeks, he has never felt stronger — and it shows.
Every action taken by Russia indicates that Putin has no intention to halt offensive operations, says Kseniya Kirillova, a Russia analyst at Jamestown Foundation, a Washington DC-based think tank.
'The Kremlin appears to be genuinely convinced that Russia is winning and that its victory is already predetermined. One of the key drivers of its confidence is the substantial assistance from Iran and China in the production of drones. These drones are designed in Iran, powered by Chinese engines, and assembled in Russia. As a result, Putin is determined to bring Ukraine to its knees,' says Kirillova.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his European partners have spent recent days urging Trump to not give in to Putin's demands. They have said that he has agreed to a principled approach and has backed Ukraine's demand for security guarantees. But Trump's word has never meant anything — particularly regarding Ukraine. He has repeatedly agreed with Ukraine and yet, whenever he has talked to Putin, he has come out of the conversation in agreement with him.
In Alaska, something far bigger than the fate of the war in Ukraine is on the line — the future of Europe.
Putin wants Russian empire, a trade deal wouldn't pacify him
The Soviet Union has shaped Putin as much as he has shaped post-Soviet Russia.
The collapse of the Soviet Union, and with it the end of the Russian sphere of influence in eastern Europe, was never acceptable to him. He had been clear about it even before he became the president.
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'Russia has been a great power for centuries and remains so. It has always had and still has legitimate zones of interest. We should not drop our guard in this respect, neither should we allow our opinion to be ignored,' said Putin in 1999.
Groomed in the Soviet chekist ideology, which says that an external force —the secret police KGB in case of Soviet Union— controls all spheres of life and people don't have free will, Putin never recognised Ukraine's right to exist as a sovereign state. To him, Ukraine was always a part of Russia and Ukrainian language, culture, and symbols were abominations, and the country's rejection of the Russian sphere of influence was a result of a Western plot that had to be nipped.
To him, intervening in Ukraine —and Georgia before it— over its rejection of Russian proxy leaders was natural.
In 2008, Putin cited non-existent attacks by pro-Western Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili on ethnic Russians in the country to order the invasion of the country. Russia continues to occupy a fifth of Georgia.
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In 2014, Putin similarly saw his sphere of influence lost in Ukraine after a mass movement ousted President Viktor Yanukovych, a proxy. His soldiers invaded and occupied the Crimea region, and Putin later annexed it.
He also inserted proxies in the eastern Donbas region that waged an armed insurgency against the Ukrainian government till 2022 when Russia launched the full-scale invasion — essentially making it the third Russian war on Ukraine in a decade.
Unlike President Trump who thinks like a businessman and wants to make deals, Putin is driven by the ideological commitment to restore the Soviet era controls of Russia, and no incentive of a trade deal might convince him to abandon that commitment, says Kirillova, the Russia analyst at Jamestown Foundation.
There are indications that Trump intends to offer Putin sanctions relief and joint US-Russia energy extraction ventures in exchange for an end to the war.
'Putin will not be deterred until pressure is applied on him. With no such pressure so far, he has not taken President Trump's threats seriously and hopes he can maintain his goodwill through flattery and promises,' says Kirillova.
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There is no doubt that Russia is playing the long game and has eyes on the rest of Europe as well, according to Shreya Sinha, an associate fellow for European studies at the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF).
'The recent build-up of infrastructure along the Finnish border is a clear indication that Russia is preparing not just for the next phase of the Ukraine war but also for a broader possible confrontation with Europe,' Sinha previously told Firstpost.
'With Finland now a new Nato member, Russia sees the writing on the wall and is pre-emptively reinforcing its western front. This is not just posturing. It is strategic groundwork for a future where the war in Ukraine might spill over or evolve into a more direct stand-off with European states,' she says.
Putin has a clear agenda for Alaska summit
Putin wants Trump to see the world from his point of view and help him win in Ukraine and use the country as a stepping stone to advance further in Ukraine.
Trump and Putin have plenty of common ground and that has led to suspicions that the American president's recent outbursts regarding the Russian leader are a mere charade, and they remain allies behind the curtains. Ater all, both the leaders reject the free will of nations and have unabashed imperialist ambitions. While Putin evidently eyes dominance over eastern Europe for himself, Trump has declared he wants to annex Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal, and the Gaza Strip.
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Throughout the war, and as early as last week, Trump has agreed with the Russian rationale and falsely blamed Ukraine for starting the war. But none of this proves Trump is actually in league with Putin. It could be that he simply does not know any better and is being played by Putin because of his incompetence.
In any case, Putin would most likely present to President Trump conditions that are unacceptable to Ukraine, says Kirillova, the Russia analyst at Jamestown Foundation.
'Putin will use Ukraine's rejection of his terms to accuse Volodymyr Zelenskyy of sabotaging peace negotiations. This will allow him to continue the war while simultaneously currying favour with Trump by framing Ukraine as unwilling to seek peace,' says Kirillova.
Will Trump give Putin a go-ahead to take over Europe?
Putin's maximalist demands range from Ukraine's surrender of the entire eastern part of the country that he has claimed to constitutional changes that would essentially kill Ukrainian national identity.
With Versailles treaty-like provisions, he has also sought to restrict the size, deployment, and equipment of Ukrainian military. If Trump would accept such demands and impose them on Ukraine, that would be a dream come true for Putin.
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If Trump ends up imposing any such deal with brute force, a new war against a European country would just be a matter of time, says Kirillova.
'If a one-sided deal is struck that favours Russia, Putin will just buy time to launch another invasion a few years down the line to either annex the remainder of Ukraine or harass some other country, perhaps Poland or one of the Baltic nations," she says.
Putin is completely committed to the idea of restoring the Soviet Union. He will not rest until he achieves it or loses while trying to achieve it,' says Kirillova.
President Zelenskyy will not sign a deal that legitimises Russian gains, such as in Novopil in Donetsk, Vodolahy in Sumy, or Bilohorivka in Luhansk, Sinha, the Europe scholar at VIF, previously told Firstpost.
'These are not just pieces of land. They are proof that this war is still very much ongoing, to which Ukraine has given their all. Any future peace deal would likely hinge on international security guarantees and a long-term roadmap to reconstruction and political stability. But for now, full-scale concession is simply not on the table,' said Sinha.
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