Africa could emerge a winner from China's war-induced energy shift
A ceasefire has brought a reprieve to the war
between Israel and Iran , halting the single most dangerous regional conflict in recent years. For Beijing, the world's largest oil importer, the lesson from the brief, 12-day conflict, could not be clearer: China cannot continue to rely on a region so prone to disruption for the resources needed to power its economic development.
China has been successful at maintaining a balancing act between competing geopolitical forces, importing vast amounts of
discounted crude from Iran while securing long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) deals
with Gulf suppliers . It has also cultivated diplomatic neutrality and maintained a strong relationship with Israel. This neutrality has allowed Beijing to support energy needs without hindering geopolitical ambitions.
The fragility of this strategy has been seen in the most recent round of conflict, which
jeopardised shipping routes , disrupted supply chains and led to a global spike in energy costs. Lessons learned will not be limited to the Middle East. These will resonate across Beijing's global foreign policy apparatus.
Beijing's
reliance on Iranian oil was at its peak in 2024, when it bought around 1.5 million barrels per day, which accounted for about 90 per cent of Iranian oil shipments and 15 per cent of Chinese crude consumption. Chinese consumption of Iranian oil has since dropped to 740,000 barrels per day. Whether the ceasefire holds is immaterial at this point. Diversification is a strategic imperative.
Beijing will continue to look towards LNG, the country's most viable hedge in the immediate term. Even this, however, comes from the yet-to-be-stabilised Middle East. Just before the recent war erupted, ENN LNG Singapore – a subsidiary of China's ENN Natural Gas – signed a long-term agreement with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. As the war has shown, while such arrangements are stabilising, they are far from immune to sudden disruption.
The primary solution that might offer long-term energy security for Beijing is renewables. In 2024, non-fossil fuels made up 56 per cent of total installed electricity generation capacity. By the end of 2024, China's cumulative renewable energy capacity reached nearly 1.9 billion kilowatts, a 25 per cent year-on-year increase. China's electric vehicle (EV) market grew at the equally astounding rate of almost 40 per cent in 2024.
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AllAfrica
38 minutes ago
- AllAfrica
As Singapore PM visits China, no sign US pressure constrains ties
Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong made a five-day visit to China last week, a prominent display of friendly and constructive relations that stood in contrast to US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's comments about 'malign Chinese influence' at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore on May 31. After meeting with President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and other Chinese officials in Beijing, Wong joined World Economic Forum President Borge Brende on stage at 'Summer Davos' in Tianjin. The messages from their conversations were clear: close attention is being paid to the importance of relations between Singapore and China by both sides, globalism is far from dead and nations are finding ways to move beyond US protectionism and diktat. On June 24, Wong wrote on X: 'Productive meeting with President Xi this morning. We agreed to further deepen cooperation in line with our unique 'all-round high-quality future-oriented' partnership.' He then added, 'Amidst a more uncertain external environment, we are committed to working together to foster continued peace, stability and shared prosperity for the region.' Established in April 2023, that partnership covers trade and investment, environmentally sound ('green') development, the digital economy, food security, the financial sector, aviation, and people-to-people exchanges. It is backed by a 'shared commitment to multilateralism, support for the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, adherence to international law, and …the rules based multilateral trading system as embodied by the World Trade Organisation.' Wong's visit came in the run-up to the 35th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Singapore and the People's Republic on October 3, 1990. But ties between the two date further back, to Lee Kuan Yew's meetings and discussions with Deng Xiaoping when the latter visited Singapore in 1978. Commenting on this history, Prime Minister Wong pointed out that 'President Xi is in a unique position, I think, to have engaged and met all the prime ministers of Singapore: Lee Kuan Yew, Goh Chok Tong, Lee Hsien Loong and, now, me.' In their meeting, Prime Minister Wong and Premier Li 'commended the significant progress in bilateral cooperation over the past 35 years, underscored by the three Government-to-Government projects in Suzhou, Tianjin, and Chongqing.' Those projects are: the China-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park; the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City urban development venture; and the China-Singapore (Chongqing) Demonstration Initiative on Strategic Connectivity, which promotes links in financial services, information & communications, and transport & logistics. Wong and Li also 'welcomed the strong momentum in the ASEAN-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and looked forward to signing the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area 3.0 Upgrade later this year.' 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This enables selected Singapore-based banks to offer trading and custody services for onshore RMB bonds, and enhance international investors' access to China's bond market through Singapore.' Wong also met with Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at 'Summer Davos,' where they talked about cooperation in areas including renewable energy and food security. 'This,' he wrote on X, 'builds on the Vietnam-Singapore Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) launched earlier this year.' Singapore, said Wong, 'is doing something like more than 20 industrial parks in Vietnam.' This year's event, officially the 16th World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting of the New Champions, attracted about 1,800 participants from around the world, this time under the theme 'Entrepreneurship for a New Era.' It was the eighth time that the event was held in Tianjin. Wong spoke at length with WEF President Brende about the need to reform and preserve the world economic order by means of a 'flexible multilateralism' that stops 'the jungle growing back' under the 'rule of the strong.' As an example, he said that a few countries, like-minded countries, Singapore working with Japan and Australia, we have come together to initiate a joint statement initiative on e-commerce. And after five hard years of negotiation, today, more than 70 countries have agreed on the first set of rules for digital trading – it is the building block for the first set of global rules on digital trade. And I give these illustrations to show that it is possible to update, evolve, improve the multilateral system and global institutions that we have today. It is painstaking work but there is no alternative. Singapore, he said, built trade and investment links with its nearest neighbors, Malaysia and Indonesia, then Vietnam and other members of ASEAN, and now, for the whole of ASEAN, we are looking at ways to better integrate ASEAN and make us more united, be able to offer a more competitive single market to investors. So that is within ASEAN. But outside of our region, we are also engaging different blocks. We already have very close links with China, Japan, Korea, India in Asia. But we are engaging outside of Asia, for example, with the EU, with the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council: the inaugural ASEAN-GCC-China Summit held in Kuala Lumpur on May 27], with Latin America. So we are trying to find ways to strengthen links with like-minded entities everywhere around the world. As President Trump's trade war takes its toll, such efforts have acquired a new urgency. The June Survey of Professional Forecasters (economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy) conducted by the Monetary Authority of Singapore showed a reduction in this year's projected economic growth to 1.7% from the 2.6% projected in March – an abrupt slowdown from the 4.4% GDP growth recorded in 2024. Tensions over trade and other geopolitical matters were rated as the greatest downside risk to the Singaporean economy, followed by rising interest rates and global economic slowdown. Respondents to the survey also signaled concern over tighter financial conditions. Manufacturing has taken a particularly large hit. Changes in median forecasts of 2025 macroeconomic indicators from the March to the June survey include: manufacturing +2.9% to -0.3%, non-oil domestic exports +2.8% to +1.0%, finance & insurance +4.0% to +3.3%, construction +3.4% to +3.3%, wholesale & retail trade +2.7% to +2.2%, accommodation & food services +2.0% to +1.5%, and private consumption: +3.5% to +3.1%. The construction sector is holding up with support from the Changi Airport Terminal 5 and other longer-term projects. In late May, DBS Bank senior economist Chua Han Teng wrote that 'Continued elevated global trade policy uncertainties are likely to dampen business confidence, which have already turned down.' US President Trump's so-called 'reciprocal' tariff on Singapore is only 10% (the same as the current baseline tariff), but those that might be applied to the rest of Asia are considerably higher: 46% on Vietnam, 36% on Thailand, 32% on Indonesia, 32% on Taiwan, 25% on South Korea, 24% on Japan, etc. Then there is the 25% tariff on autos, and proposed tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and other products that are now under consideration, plus multiple tariffs on China that currently add up to effective rates of more than 30% on most Chinese goods. This is all negative for Singapore, which lives on trade and investment. The China and ASEAN are Singapore's largest trade partners, each accounting for about a quarter of its imports and exports, US is Singapore's largest foreign investor, and Singapore is China's largest foreign investor. The 'reciprocal' tariffs have been 'paused' until July 9, but the White House now says that that date is 'not critical,' leaving hope for negotiated reductions, but also, given Trump's penchant for changing his mind, continued uncertainty. In a ministerial statement on US tariffs and their implications issued on April 8, Wong wrote that, 'In Singapore's case, we have an FTA with America. We impose zero tariffs on US imports, and we actually run a trade deficit with the US – meaning we buy more from them than they do from us.' Therefore, 'If the tariffs were truly reciprocal, and if they were meant to target only those with trade surpluses, then the tariff for Singapore should be zero.' 'But still we are being subjected to the 10% tariff. We are very disappointed by the US move, especially considering the deep and longstanding friendship between our two countries. These are not actions one does to a friend.' Nevertheless, at Summer Davos Wong said: We want to be friends with both America and China, and to have good relations with them, cooperate on win-win areas. But it is not just us; all of Southeast Asia would like to do the same. And within ASEAN in particular, no single country in ASEAN may have the same size and scale, but when you add ASEAN up altogether, collectively, we are not small. We have considerable heft. We are 700 million people, a sizable economy, and ASEAN has the ability to shape its own destiny, to shape its own future. ASEAN was the arena for proxy wars during the Cold War. We don't want that to happen again. So ASEAN's approach is very clear. We reject zero-sum competition. 'I know everyone monitors and tracks what we say and what we do very closely,' he said, 'trying to parse every hidden meaning behind every word, behind every action, whether we are moving closer to one or the other. But that's not how we look at things.' In fact, there is no sign whatsover that American government pressure is constraining relations between Singapore and China. On the contrary, the two Asian countries have appropriated the terms rules-based global order, free trade and multilateralism, which are no longer associated with the US. And they are working together on a wide range of practical activities that seem totally alien to the Trump Administration's view of what is or what it would like to be happening in Asia. Follow this writer on X: @ScottFo83517667
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South China Morning Post
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Zijin buys US$1.2 billion Kazakhstan gold mine ahead of overseas unit's Hong Kong listing
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