Phillies takeaways on the sputtering offense, outfield issues and a pitching tightrope
The defining sequence of a miserable weekend in Pittsburgh that featured three Phillies' one-run losses came in the seventh inning Saturday afternoon. The game was tied. Alec Bohm doubled to right, then advanced to third on a wild pitch. No outs. The Phillies just needed a fly ball to score him.
Nick Castellanos worked a 3-0 count against righty reliever Isaac Mattson. He took two straight sliders for strikes, then a borderline fastball for strike three. J.T. Realmuto got a hanging slider and skied it only 214 feet to right — not deep enough. Bryson Stott reached a full count but couldn't handle a changeup in the zone. He flied out to center.
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The Pirates homered in the bottom half of the inning. The end.
But that failed seventh-inning chance was emblematic of a deeper issue that begins to explain how the Phillies have sputtered on offense. They have failed to do damage on non-fastballs this season, especially over the past two weeks. Almost every hitter on the roster has seen a dip in slugging percentage against off-speed and breaking pitches. Many have experienced radical declines.
The team's slugging percentage against non-fastballs ranks 25th in MLB. Even more telling: Since May 27, the Phillies have averaged 3.08 runs per game. They are 3-9 in that span. They have slugged a measly .273 on non-fastballs during that stretch. That ranks 30th in MLB — 20 points lower than the next-worst offense.
This was the scouting report that emerged last summer: The Phillies can be beaten with spin.
But that wasn't always the case in 2024. The Phillies actually ranked fifth in the majors last season in slugging percentage against non-fastballs. They improved later in the season, their best damage on those pitches coming from Aug. 1 to the end of the regular season.
Those adjustments have not translated to 2025. The Phillies have seen off-speed and breaking pitches at roughly the same rate as last season (45 percent), and opposing teams could exploit it further without Phillies hitters producing more on those pitches. Kevin Long, the club's veteran hitting coach, has philosophies rooted in being on time for the fastball. The Phillies remain a good-hitting team against fastballs; they have, so far, posted almost identical numbers against fastballs in 2025 as in 2024.
It's just one snapshot in time. Maybe none of this matters. Paul Skenes fired fastballs 54 percent of the time in Sunday's outing — the highest rate in any of his 37 big-league starts. He allowed one unearned run in 7 2/3 innings.
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Phillies center fielders have a .609 OPS through 65 games. That would be the franchise's worst mark at that position since at least 1901 and probably in the entire history of the Phillies.
It's not good. (Somehow, in 2025, there are six teams with lower OPS marks from their center fielders. That is quite a commentary on the state of the position across baseball.)
It would be one thing if the Phillies were receiving elite defense in center field. They are not. It would be one thing if this were a new problem. It is not. (The Phillies rank 26th in MLB in OPS from center fielders since 2020.) It would be one thing if the Phillies were getting production in the corner outfield spots to compensate. They have not. (Phillies left and right fielders rank 16th in OPS.)
Nick Castellanos has been steady at the plate but a growing liability in the field. The platoon in left field, as of now, is a dud. Even if the Phillies wanted to swap Weston Wilson (4-for-27 with no extra-base hits against lefty pitchers) for a different platoon bat, the only righty-hitting outfielder at Triple A is journeyman Óscar Mercado. Max Kepler, making $10 million, has produced a .660 OPS.
But the biggest outfield disappointment, by far, is Brandon Marsh against righties. Even if Marsh is not an everyday player, he has provided terrific value before in that specific role. He hit .281/.362/.469 against righties after his trade to the Phillies in 2022 through the 2024 season.
This season: He's hit .225/.320/.315 in 103 plate appearances against righties. The lack of a power stroke is jarring. Marsh's last extra-base hit against a righty came May 25. He has one home run — hit in the second game of the season — against a righty. He crushed 15 homers off righties in 2024.
Even if the Phillies were to consider something extreme, it's best not to promote a prospect while the team is in a downward swing. There would be greater pressure on, say, Justin Crawford to be an offensive savior when he profiles best as someone batting ninth in the majors while creating some havoc with his bat-to-ball skills and speed combo.
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Demoting Marsh to the minors would be extreme; it could be one gambit to deliver a message to a sagging offense. Marsh has been at or below replacement level for most of the season. The Phillies would be justified in seeking a 'reset' for the 27-year-old outfielder.
But it would be extreme.
Johan Rojas hasn't been much better; he at least provides more range in the outfield — something the Phillies lack. There is no elegant solution here, and even if the Phillies were interested in acquiring a center fielder come July, there is no surplus of productive ones available.
Cristopher Sánchez became the first Phillies starter this season to throw a pitch in the eighth inning, and that decision said a lot about the tightrope manager Rob Thomson walks. Sánchez had one of his best outings of the season — 96 pitches in seven innings with 21 swings-and-misses and one walk. But lefty Oneil Cruz, who was 0-for-3 with two strikeouts against Sánchez, led off the eighth.
Sánchez walked him on four pitches. Cruz later scored the eventual winning run.
Thomson had Orion Kerkering, who has pitched far better in the past five weeks, ready. But lefties have pummeled Kerkering for an .845 OPS this season. Thomson has no righty reliever he can trust against a team's best left-handed batter. His best right-on-left option might be Taijuan Walker (.637 OPS against), but Walker was not available because he cannot go on back-to-back days yet.
Jordan Romano (.884 OPS versus lefties), Carlos Hernández (.987) and Joe Ross (.796) haven't been effective in those situations. The only bullpens with a worse OPS in right-on-left matchups are the Athletics and Dodgers.
This is not a new problem; Phillies righty relievers permitted a league-worst .859 OPS to lefties last season. Matt Strahm cannot face every lefty in a high-leverage spot. This is where not having José Alvarado hurts.
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Sánchez and Ranger Suárez at least put the rotation back on course with consecutive seven-inning performances. The Phillies played the weekend without three of their four highest-paid players (Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola). Wheeler will return Monday to start against the Cubs, his first outing in 10 days. That should help. There will be a greater onus on Mick Abel to serve as a decent rotation piece while Nola's absence lingers.
Andrew Painter's progressions will become even more important as the Phillies continue to exhaust internal options before the July 31 trade deadline. Painter is expected to pitch twice this week at Triple-A Lehigh Valley — Tuesday and Sunday — meaning he will go on four days' rest for the first time in his professional career. That is one of the final boxes the Phillies wanted the 22-year-old righty to check before coming to the majors.
The best cover for a shaky bullpen is a strong rotation. But, as the Phillies discovered over the weekend, even that is rendered helpless without a semi-competent offense.
(Top photo of Nick Castellanos reacting after striking out in the seventh on Saturday: Justin Berl / Getty Images)
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