Tale of the tape: McIntosh vs. Ledecky in the 800-metre freestyle
It turns out that theory was extremely wrong.
McIntosh won gold in the 200-metre butterfly by a full three seconds on Thursday, but came away mostly annoyed that she hadn't broken the world record. At 2:01.99, the 18-year-old's time was the second-fastest in the history of the event, but still fell .18 seconds short of the mark set by China's Liu Zige during the supersuit era in 2009. Watch the full race, including McIntosh's reaction, here.
"I was so close, that's what upsets me a little bit," McIntosh told CBC Sports reporter Devin Heroux after the race. "If there's one world record that I wanted to break since the start of my career, it's this one."
Still, the win made McIntosh three-for-three in Singapore. She's attempting to win five solo gold medals at worlds, a feat accomplished only by American great Michael Phelps in 2007 ahead of his iconic eight-gold performance at the Beijing Olympics.
Watch McIntosh's family react to her latest win here, and check out The Ready Room's breakdown of today's action here.
The biggest roadblock in the drive for five was always going to be Ledecky and the 800 freestyle. It already looks like a classic sports story: the rising superstar vs. the wily veteran.
Heats begin Friday at 12:11 a.m. ET, with McIntosh and Ledecky in separate races. The final is scheduled for Saturday at 8:17 a.m. ET. Live coverage is available on CBC Gem and CBCSports.ca.
Here's how they stack up:
Summer McIntosh
Age: 18
Olympic medals: 4 (3 gold, 1 silver)
World championship medals: 11 (7 gold, 1 silver, 3 bronze)
800 freestyle personal best: 8:05.07 (national record, set in June)
McIntosh has been dubbed as the next one in Canadian swimming since her 2021 Olympic debut as a 14-year-old, when she placed fourth in the 400 freestyle. The rise has been meteoric ever since, culminating with a Canadian-record three gold medals (plus one silver) at the Paris Olympics. In June, McIntosh raised the bar even higher, smashing three world records at national trials in five swims.
One mark she missed? The 800 freestyle, which belongs to Ledecky. Still, McIntosh is within a second of the American — and she broke the 8:10 barrier for the first time ever this season. "I'm still learning how to swim [the 800m]," she said at trials.
Well, it appears the Canadian is an ace student. In Feb. 2024, she handed Ledecky her first loss in the distance in 14 years. McIntosh has proven that the bright lights don't faze her — she's as open about wanting to match Phelps' medal mark as she was visibly disappointed by missing the 200 fly record.
McIntosh also won the first duel against Ledecky in the 400 freestyle to open worlds, and she wants the smoke: "One of the many reasons I picked the 800 is because in my opinion it is the biggest challenge," she said. Now, she'll try to capture the throne.
Katie Ledecky
Age: 28
Olympic medals: 14 (9 gold, 4 silver, 1 bronze)
World championship medals: 29 (22 gold, 6 silver, 1 bronze)
800 freestyle personal best: 8:04.12 (world record, set in May)
For years, Ledecky has been known for her dominance — for the camera shot of her alone in the pool in an eight woman-race, or the one of her swimming in the other direction from her seven opponents. The American is largely viewed as the women's swimming GOAT, and she's pursuing a Phelps record of her own, sitting four gold medals behind her ex-teammate for the most ever at worlds.
Through all the accolades, Ledecky's strength has always been the 800. She first broke the world record in 2013 at 8:13.46 — that mark is now the 46th-best. And Ledecky continues to get faster, having reset the world record again in May after not touching it for eight years. She's won four consecutive Olympic gold medals in the 800, and she owns 21 of the 25 fastest times ever.
McIntosh's mark from trials, however, slots in at No. 3. Ledecky has never faced pressure like that from any competitor since she solidified herself among distance swimming's best. She's yet to compete against McIntosh in the same pool this season, and considering the way McIntosh is trending, this could be her last best shot to beat her.
But she's in top form: in Ledecky's victorious 1,500 freestyle swim, her 800-metre split clocked in at 8:09.57, which McIntosh has only beaten once. Game on.
By the numbers
Earlier this month, The Buzzer enlisted Shoreview Sports Analytics to crunch the numbers on the McIntosh-Ledecky showdown. What the models produced foreshadows a thrilling race.
Taking into account McIntosh's lack of sample size — she hasn't swam the 800 in a major meet since the 2021 Olympics — Ledecky has a slight edge (0.24 seconds) in average expected range, and an even slighter edge in projected fastest time (0.07 seconds), which are both in the 8:01-range.
For a closer look at the numbers, check out Buzzer regular Jesse Campigotto's breakdown in last Thursday's newsletter.
On deck
* Canada's Josh Liendo and Ilya Kharun are set to go head-to-head in the men's 100 butterfly, starting in the same heat Thursday at 10:23 p.m. ET ahead of semifinals Friday at 7:10 a.m. ET. Liendo and Kharun shared the Olympic podium in this event last summer, snagging silver and bronze, respectively. Now, the top spot appears up for grabs as Olympic champion Kristof Milak is skipping worlds entirely. Liendo already owns a bronze at this meet from the mixed 4x100 medley relay, while Kharun's time in Singapore hasn't gone quite as planned after he missed the 50 fly final and placed fourth in the 200 fly. But it was Kharun clipped Liendo at national trials in June with a personal-best time of 50.37.
* Blake Tierney smashed the Canadian record in the 200-metre backstroke, then did it again over the course of about 10 hours on Thursday in Singapore. The 23-year-old will compete in the final on Friday at 7:56 a.m. ET after posting the fifth-best qualifying time at 1:55.03. The Mississauga, Ont., native would qualify as a surprise medallist if he's able to leap into the top three. He placed 19th in Paris and now faces stiff competition from Olympic champion Hubert Kos, silver medallist Roman Mityukov and South Africa's Peter Coetze, who led qualifying at 1:54.22 — a time that would have won the Olympic race.
* Canadian diver Carson Paul will compete in the men's three-metre springboard semifinals on Friday at 2:02 a.m. ET. The final goes at 5:32 a.m. ET. Canada is still looking for its first diving medal after Katelyn Fung placed fourth in the women's 10-metre platform event on Thursday.
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