We're getting close to a technical confirmation of a bottom, says 3Fourteen Research's Warren Pies
3Fourteen Research's Warren Pies, JPMorgan's Stephanie Aliaga and Truist's Keith Lerner, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss Trump's trade wars, the technical levels of a market bottom and their overall outlook.
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Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Wall Street is on the cusp of ending the dumbest recruiting cycle known to man, and we all could stand to benefit from it
JPMorgan and Apollo took steps to delay the early recruitment of junior bankers. The move challenges the traditional recruiting cycle for entry-level PE jobs. If successful, the switch would shake up the entire industry and benefit people outside PE. They were the shots heard round Murray Hill. Recent announcements by JPMorgan and Apollo aimed at slowing down the early recruitment of junior bankers have sent young Wall Streeters into a frenzy. First, JPMorgan threatened termination for first-year analysts accepting future-dated private-equity jobs. Then, private-equity firm Apollo delayed recruiting young bankers. Not long after, Business Insider was first to report that PE giant General Atlantic told young bankers it's also pumping the brakes. The entire episode is still unfolding, but it risks upending years of planning by people pursuing one of the most sought-after careers in finance. And the end result could be PE firms pulling from a much bigger pool of talent as opposed to the select few who zeroed in on nabbing a job in the industry years ago. The news isn't just important for your Wall Street buddy who played lacrosse in college, though. Upending the well-worn practice of PE recruiting could ultimately impact all of us. And it's not a bad thing. Understanding the magnitude of JPMorgan's and Apollo's announcements is realizing the effort it takes to get a job in PE. Imagine you have a big test on Monday. While most of your classmates spent the weekend partying, you buckle down and hit the books so you're fully prepared. But when Monday comes your teacher postpones the test so everyone else can study more. That doesn't negate the work you did, but it definitely stings a bit. Now imagine it's not a test but the chance at a job with a base salary upwards of $150,000 that you spent years, not just a weekend, getting ready for. Starting to get the idea? Still, you might be asking yourself: Why do I care about changes to PE recruitment? (To be fair, you clicked the link, but I'll allow it.) The truth is, this impacts more people than just those who consider a Friday night at Hair of the Dog a good time. Private-equity's reach is immense, and it's only set to get bigger. At the end of last year, PE firms had $1.2 trillion in global buyout dry powder, according to Bain & Company. That's a lot of cash ready to be put to work when dealmaking takes off. The industry is also evolving beyond the typical PE strategies we're used to, like bundling up smaller companies. Firms are becoming big lenders, often beating regulator-constrained banks at their own game. (Whether that's a good or bad thing remains to be seen. But that's a conversation for another day.) In short, it's a PE-backed world, and we're all just living in it. Working off the premise that private equity remains an unavoidable part of our future, the industry's hiring tactics, even at the junior level, suddenly seem a lot more important. Apollo's move could be viewed as a way to avoid picking a fight with the biggest US bank. Apollo CEO Marc Rowan's statement to BI offers some more insight. First, he alludes to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's criticism of the early recruitment of junior bankers. "When someone says something that is just plainly true, I feel compelled to agree with it," Rowan wrote via email. He then touched on why a reset was called for. "Asking students to make career decisions before they truly understand their options doesn't serve them or our industry," he wrote. "When great candidates make rushed decisions it creates avoidable turnover—and that serves no one," Rowan added. I'm not trying to carry PE's water here, but that makes sense to me! Not only is it incredibly dumb to ask young people to commit to their next job before they start their first one, but it also limits PE firms from a recruiting perspective. Under the current framework, people vying for these PE positions tend to fit a certain profile. From prestigious universities to finance clubs to summer internships to analyst jobs, the path to PE glory doesn't leave much room for detours. That's not to say these people make bad PE employees. God knows we've got plenty of examples of those who followed that exact route to success. But who says there isn't a great potential PE dealmaker out there taking the long road, so to speak? Maybe they didn't learn about PE or realize they wanted to get into the industry until the treadmill was moving too fast for them to jump on. Wanting to be in PE for a long time doesn't make you the most qualified person to work in PE. Meanwhile, pulling from such a small, selective talent pool could put firms at risk of groupthink. If you need to tick a certain number of boxes before getting a sniff at PE, you'll likely find a lot of people who were taught to think the same way. And when it comes to investing, that rarely turns out well. Moving away from that model is also good for the rest of us. As our interactions with PE firms grow, having people on the inside who understand life outside the PE rat race can benefit us all. Full disclosure: I'm still not convinced this will ultimately change anything. We've been down this path before. A few years ago a group of PE recruiters made a pact to hold off approaching junior bankers too early … only for one of them to break the truce and try front running the others. (This is Wall Street after all.) There's also nothing stopping another PE firm, let's call them Whitepebble or LLS, from using Apollo's pause as a way to scoop up even more talent. Or for another bank, let's call them Nevermore or Wizard, from telling aspiring bankers they'll be happy to help with their PE aspirations when they're recruiting on college campuses this fall. I'm also not naive enough to think that Apollo will open up the floodgates to anyone when it eventually starts recruiting associates. Even getting a sniff at such a prestigious firm will still be an honor for only a select few. But a slight deviation from the regimented system we have in place, where committing to a long-term career before you're even considered a legal adult is almost a prerequisite, is a step in the right direction. What do you think of the change? Is it a good thing that firms are taking a pause? Or will the PE industry lose something by slowing down early recruitment? Email me at ddefrancesco@ Read the original article on Business Insider Errore nel recupero dei dati Effettua l'accesso per consultare il tuo portafoglio Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Private equity took Jamie Dimon's warnings to heart. Here's why.
JPMorgan recently drew a line in the sand over private equity's recruiting of its newbie bankers. Within days, Apollo and General Atlantic said they would bow out of the practice this year. Here are some of the other factors that may have played a role in their decision. When Jamie Dimon speaks, people listen. Early last week, the JPMorgan CEO blasted the practice of private equity firms hiring junior bankers for future-dated jobs. Days later, buyout shops Apollo Global Management and General Atlantic heeded the warning and announced they'd stop the recruiting tactic. Even Apollo's CEO, Marc Rowan, seemed to credit Dimon for his firm's decision. "When someone says something that is just plainly true, I feel compelled to agree with it," Rowan, the Apollo CEO, told Business Insider last week, following his firm's decision to back out of recruiting 2027 associates this year. Dimon, who has proven influence over a wide range of topics including the economy and the workplace, has been no stranger to critiquing private equity's recruiting practices. He blasted them last year, telling students at Georgetown University that he believes they're "unethical" and that he wants to ban them. "I think it's wrong to put you in the position," Dimon said, adding: "You have to kind of decide the next career move before you have a chance to even decide what the company is like." The question is, why now? Nothing changed last year — so what triggered Apollo and General Atlantic to suddenly reverse course? Neither firm responded to interview requests from BI to speak with executives in time for the publication of this story. Industry insiders, however, pointed to a series of factors that they said have made it easier for firms to heed Dimon's words of warning, including the persistent slowdown in deal activity and the rise of artificial intelligence, which could supplant the need for some early career jobs. Frustrations have also been mounting over a recruiting process that has shifted earlier and earlier in recent years. "The matching process is yielding a lower success rate and many candidates will sign without fully knowing what they're getting into," Matt Ting, the founder of Peak Frameworks, a popular Wall Street careers course provider, told BI in April. Should any one of these factors change (deal activity picking up, for example), the rat race could come roaring back, some people said. "Being cynical, it's an easy time for them to make such a decision," said a senior banker, who asked to remain anonymous to protect his job and relationships with financial sponsors. The golden age of private equity has been over for some time now, thanks to higher borrowing costs and a persistently sluggish deals market. While it's unclear how this might be impacting hiring at the junior levels, the investment banker said his firm has seen a slowdown in the number of bankers poached. "The reality is, if things were extremely frothy right now, and they had a ton of deals going on and they needed more people, they'd actually be recruiting people off-cycle out of banks right now to fill seats immediately," the banker said, adding: "And they're not, you know what I'm saying?" Young bankers who spoke to BI, meanwhile, raised concerns that artificial intelligence could reduce the need for new blood in the coming years. Earlier this year at an industry conference, the CEO of buyout firm Vista Equity Partners predicted some 60% of the conference's attendees would be "looking for work" by next year due to artificial intelligence. What's more, BI has for years been hearing of growing tensions over the industry's pressure-cooker hiring tactics, which have been known to include middle-of-the-night interviews and demands that candidates make a decision before they leave the room or see their offers evaporate. The intensity has soured some young bankers on joining the industry, as BI has previously reported. Early recruiting timelines have also led to more candidates walking away from job offers they had signed at the start of their career — leaving firms to scramble to fill an open role. "One big issue with the early on-cycle is that reneging has gone up a lot," Ting told BI. What happens next is anyone's guess. For now, investment banks appear hopeful that other private equity firms follow Apollo and General Atlantic's lead. And while the exact role Dimon played remains a mystery, senior bankers say they are grateful to him for having the courage to speak up. "There's no one else at that level that can make bold proclamations like that," the banker said of Dimon. When asked if others had tried and failed to do what Dimon has done, the banker laughed. "You mean lean on some of our biggest fee drivers?" he replied. "It's tough to lean on your clients." Have a tip? Contact this reporter via email at ralexander@ or SMS/Signal at 561-247-5758. Use a personal email address and a nonwork device; here's our guide to sharing information securely. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
7 hours ago
- CNBC
These companies have a track record of stock buybacks and are winners amid volatility, says Wolfe Research
As markets remain jittery amid still-shifting trade policy and geopolitical concerns, Wolfe Research is eyeing companies that steadily repurchase their own stock as a way to ride out the volatility. Wolfe's consistent buyback basket screens for companies that have such a track record of stock repurchases that their share counts have fallen for at least 10 straight years. Chief investment strategist Chris Senyek said this basket of stocks typically performs well in defensive cycles, as well as heading into and out of recessions. Stocks took a leg lower while oil prices spiked on Friday after Iran retaliated against Israeli airstrikes . The geopolitical tensions scuttled the possibility of stocks logging three winning weeks in a row. Investors have been hopeful that the U.S. will reach trade deals with China and other trading partners. Here's a look at some of the names that came up on Wolfe's screen. Apple made the list. Shares of the iPhone maker have pulled back about 22% in 2025. While investors wait for Apple to roll out its artificial intelligence suite, including a revamped Siri, the company has kept up with its share repurchases. On the heels of a better-than-expected second quarter , Apple announced a $100 billion buyback program. AAPL YTD mountain Apple stock in 2025. Over the past 12 months, the ratio of Apple stock buybacks to average market cap was 3.3%, per Wolfe data. About 62% of analysts polled by FactSet maintain a buy rating on Apple stock, with their consensus price target implying roughly 16% upside. JPMorgan Chase also made the cut. The stock has gained about 11% so far in 2025. The banking giant started off the year by stepping up its buybacks , even though CEO Jamie Dimon had pushed back on the idea at the bank's investor day in 2024. The executive feared JPMorgan's stock was a bit pricey at the time, but the bank's cash pile was ballooning so it continued to make repurchases. Wolfe's data shows JPMorgan's buyback to market cap ratio is 4%. JPM YTD mountain JPMorgan Chase stock in 2025. Roughly 56% of analysts surveyed by FactSet have a buy rating on JPMorgan stock, and the average analyst consensus price target implies about 3% upside.
