Mandel's mailbag: Will Florida State, Clemson stay in ACC? What's Ohio State's outlook?

New York Times

05-03-2025

I've got to say, I was surprised I wasn't flooded with ACC-Florida State/Clemson lawsuit settlement questions this week. Either you guys are losing interest in realignment, or you're losing interest in the ACC. (Or both.)
(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)
I think Florida State and Clemson leaving the ACC would begin a Pac-12 type of evaporation so I hope they stay. Is the new revenue formula and game selection enough to hold them in the conference? — John D.
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FSU and Clemson made out well in the settlements. For all the FSU bluster about bolting the ACC, this whole saga began because it wanted a bigger slice of the league's revenue, and now it has that. Those two programs, along with Miami when it's good, are always going to be the league leaders in TV ratings, which will now determine 60 percent of the conference's media rights pot.
ACC schools received an average of around $45 million from conference revenue in 2022-23. My colleagues Ralph Russo and Matt Baker reported that schools can now earn an extra $15 million to $35 million between this and the postseason performance pool instituted last year. If so, they'll be on par with the SEC/Big Ten. Which is what they wanted all along.
But of course, that won't temper speculation those two might still leave. If anything, the settlement sets a target date of 2030-31, when the league's exit fee will drop to $75 million, AND a departing member retains its media rights, which effectively renders the Grant of Rights moot.
But while it's now more feasible for FSU/Clemson to leave, they still need someone to invite them to leave. There has been no indication during the past 18 months that either the Big Ten or SEC are pining to add those or any other ACC members. The SEC already has schools in those states and more than enough big TV brands to keep ESPN happy. And the Big Ten is finding out how hard it is to keep 18 members spread across the country happy, especially in scheduling.
GO DEEPER
The ACC-FSU-Clemson legal battle is ending. How long will realignment peace reign?
But 2030-31 is a long way away and both college sports and sports TV will presumably change quite a bit between now and then. Under the Big Ten's and SEC's current media rights deals, there are barely enough TV windows to fit the schools they have. But what if everything moves to streaming by then, and Netflix or Amazon says give us an abundance of games?
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I believe the traditional conference model in football will crumble by the early 2030s. It's already too unwieldy, and the revenue-sharing era will expose the chasms within conferences between schools that can afford to compete at the highest level and those that can't. Len Perna, ringleader of the group spearheading a proposed FBS Super League, told me late last year they were targeting 2032. It might not be that exact model, but it will be something that generates even more money and makes more sense geographically.
What's the outlook for Ohio State this season? I think Julian Sayin has the potential to be the first pick in the NFL Draft. Can they reload and win another natty? I'm worried about their pass rush. What say you, premier college football writer? — Joshua F.
First pick of the NFL Draft? Two years from now? Bold prediction for a guy who's attempted 12 college passes. But yes, he's supposed to be good.
And Ohio State could be really good, but to do so the Buckeyes will need to go against recent college football history. The past two national champions (2023 Michigan and 2024 Ohio State) were senior-led teams with a ton of returning experience. The past nine, going back to 2016 Clemson with Deshaun Watson, had quarterbacks with previous starting experience (albeit in a couple of cases, only a few games). The 2025 Buckeyes will be low on returning starters not just at quarterback but across the board, save for the notable exceptions of receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs.
But times have changed, and Ryan Day did very well in the portal this offseason, especially on offense. I've long been impressed with West Virginia running back CJ Donaldson as a guy who shares carries. Rice's Ethan Onianwa doesn't just fill a void at offensive tackle, he could be one of the top guys in the country. And Purdue tight end Max Klare has garnered quite a bit of buzz.
And then there's this: The stat 'returning starters' could become increasingly deceiving with these longer seasons. Technically, Ohio State will have just six. But guys like defensive ends Kenyatta Jackson and Caden Curry, receiver Brandon Inniss, DB Lorenzo Styles Jr., linebackers C.J. Hicks and Arvell Reese, and cornerback Jermaine Matthews Jr. played as many snaps as someone who started three to five games. And they're all very good.
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Realistically, Ohio State is not going to repeat as national champion, but perhaps the Buckeyes have as good or better a regular season as the team that went 10-2 last year.
With teams seeming to do away with spring games, or at least heading in that direction, why couldn't they do closed-door spring games? I get coaches don't want to lose players to the portal but wouldn't it still benefit the players and staff to get a live game in? — Jasper Schmidt, Crosby, Minn.
Most teams hold scrimmages during the spring that the public never sees, and coaches will tell you they're far more useful than the spring game. The spring game is primarily for the fans. Which is why I HATE that coaches are falling all over themselves to cancel them this year. Nebraska, Ohio State, Texas, USC and right on down the line.
Why do they have to be the most paranoid people on the planet? I'm not unsympathetic to the concerns about other schools going roster poaching, but as Dabo Swinney — who is keeping Clemson's spring game — said last week, 'Whether you have a spring game or not, (there's) going to be tampering.' But sure, let's take away this tradition that 40,000-60,000 fans of a school enjoy annually because someone might watch them on Big Ten Network and poach their second-string linebacker.
I have a particular bone to pick with Matt Rhule, whose 12-13 record in his first two seasons at Nebraska apparently has turned him into the arbiter of all things college football. First, he touched off the spring game revolt, and then, after Nebraska canceled its upcoming home-and-home with Tennessee, went on Urban Meyer's podcast and said, 'Why would you ever play one of those games?'
I'll tell you why: The fans like them! Much more so than watching their team play Akron and Houston Christian, Nebraska's two nonconference home opponents this season. Even if it means the Huskers might win seven games instead of eight.
Sorry to go on my soapbox, but I feel like college football finds new reasons every year to alienate its fans, from realignment to watered-down schedules to the price of hot dogs. It makes you want to shake a guy like Rhule and say, 'Do you realize how you're able to make $9 million a year to coach football? Because of those people!'
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But I digress.
So, the NFL is retiring the chain gang next season and using the Hawk-Eye virtual measurement system to decide if somebody got a first down. If the system works well next season in the NFL, how long until FBS adopts it? — John H., State College, Pa.
First of all: Long overdue. If it goes well, hopefully college adopts it the following year.
But it took nearly 30 years from when the NFL debuted helmet communication to adopt it in college, so, perhaps in 2055.
Are there any coaches who've started as poorly as Luke Fickell has at Wisconsin and turned their failures into successes? Will Fickell ultimately succeed? — Gary K.
Sure, I can think of a few recent examples. Florida State's Mike Norvell was 8-13 his first two seasons before going 23-4 over the next two. (Let's not discuss last season.) Missouri's Eli Drinkwitz began with three straight .500 regular seasons before improving to 11-2 and 10-3 the past two seasons. And Florida's Billy Napier was squarely on the hot seat deep into his third season after going 6-7, 5-7 and starting 4-5 last season before winning four straight to finish 8-5 and restore some confidence.
Compared with those, Fickell's 13-13 mark over his first two seasons seems fairly unalarming on the surface. But there are two big differences. For one, Fickell followed a coach, Paul Chryst, who was not considered disastrous by any means. Most of us were stunned when AD Chris McIntosh fired him five games into the 2022 season given he'd just gone 9-4 the year before and 67-26 overall. So Fickell started with a higher bar than most coaches taking over for a coach who got canned.
Perhaps more importantly, though, Fickell walked into a program that had a lot of success doing things a certain way for 30 years and tried to reinvent the wheel. Arguably the biggest thing working against him is that the unofficial mayor of Madison, Barry Alvarez, has been publicly critical of him on several occasions. Gary Danielson mentioned on the air during a game against USC that Alvarez did not like Wisconsin lining up in the shotgun on a fourth down play earlier in the game. Heaven help Kalen DeBoer if Nick Saban starts questioning his play-calling on 'College GameDay.'
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I don't see a lot of hope for Fickell, whose big offseason moves involved hiring an offensive coordinator, Jeff Grimes, whose fans of his previous school, Kansas, would have packed his bags for him, and landing a transfer QB, Maryland's Billy Edwards Jr., who was the Big Ten's ninth-rated passer last season. But I felt the same way about those earlier guys at this same point in their tenures, so maybe both myself and Alvarez will soon be eating crow.
What can fans do before consequential decisions are made to halt the 4-4-2-2-1 model for a 14-team College Football Playoff to prevent it from happening in the same way soccer fans stopped the Super League? Would coordinated protests at the conference basketball tournaments, including SEC and Big Ten tournaments, be enough? — Andrew W., New York
That's a great idea. Try to get on camera waving a sign that says, 'CFP Auto Qualifiers are for Losers, not Champions.' Probably more effective, though, would be sit-ins outside the presidents' mansions at Big Ten and SEC universities. 'No At-Larges, No Justice!'
Just whatever you do, keep it civil. Not like an SEC football game.
After reading your article on the Pop-Tarts Bowl, it got me thinking: Could bowl games make a move toward smaller stadiums since in-person attendance has been declining? — Patrick, Aiken, S.C.
Thanks for reading that story. It's so easy in the offseason to get bogged down by Playoff formats and revenue sharing and whatnot, it was fun to write about a much lighter topic.
We've seen a little bit of that already. The Holiday Bowl, whose longtime home Jack Murphy Stadium (that's how I remember it) got demolished in 2021, is now played at San Diego State's 35,000-seat Snapdragon Stadium, which seems about right given that it pits a (former) Pac-12 school against an ACC school unlikely to travel. The game now known as the Rate Bowl downsized from Sun Devil Stadium to Chase Field a decade ago. But not all cities have a mid-sized stadium like that, so you're more likely to see games in a football stadium where the upper deck is not used.
GO DEEPER
'To the victor goes the pastry': How the Pop-Tarts Bowl became CFB's most absurd moment
But let's be honest: There was a recognition many years ago that these bowls were now less a tourism event and more a TV show, hence why we have games in Detroit, Boston, Birmingham, etc. And why so many of the G5-level bowls feel completely disconnected from their locations. Does anyone know where the 68 Ventures Bowl is played? Or the difference between the First Responders Bowl and the Frisco Bowl?
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To me, the lesson of the Pop-Tarts Bowl is that it's perfectly OK to embrace the fact that most bowl games are just for fun. And to lean into that fun. Most people like to have fun.
Could an athlete drop his scholarship at his current school during the season and walk on to another school to take bigger NIL money, more playing time, or to play in the College Football Playoff? — Eric L.
Not as of now, because there's an NCAA rule that says you can't play for two schools in the same academic year. But like all things NCAA, it's currently facing a legal challenge from a golfer, Holly McLean, who is seeking a preliminary injunction to compete for USF this spring after competing in one event for Oklahoma last fall. She says she was informed later in the fall that her scholarship was not being renewed and thus entered the transfer portal but has been deemed ineligible to compete in the spring season due to that fall event.
I think we can all agree the facts of that particular situation are unique. But, like Diego Pavia and others, if she wins, it could set a precedent allowing lots and lots of others, perhaps even in other sports, to follow suit.
Another lawsuit has been filed against the NCAA challenging one of its eligibility rules.
This one challenges the rule that you can't play for two schools in the same academic year.
Plaintiff is a former Oklahoma🏌️‍♀️who was cut this fall because of House settlement roster limits. pic.twitter.com/UJVhTTmNxp
— Mit Winter (@WinterSportsLaw) February 21, 2025
Before last season started, Indiana, Iowa State and Vanderbilt were the last remaining Power 4 teams to never win 10 or more games in a season. Now Vanderbilt is the only team remaining. How long do you think it will take for Vanderbilt to get to 10 wins in a season? Five years? Ten years? Twenty-five years? Would it require the season to be extended, or for the entire SEC to get guaranteed berths in the Playoff? — Andre S., Galena, Ill.
What an amazing factoid, albeit a depressing one for Vandy fans. But I think they have a chance. The portal helps them, as we saw last season. And the mega-sized SEC with no divisions allows for more randomness in schedules, where in any given year the Commodores could luck into a schedule like Indiana's last season. Maybe a decent nonconference program happens to have a down year when Vandy faces it. The Commodores don't have to make the Playoff, they just need to get to 9-3 and win a bowl game.
I'll take the 10-year timeline, though perhaps I'm being pessimistic. Perhaps I should predict it to happen this season. Vandy ranks No. 8 nationally in returning production, per Bill Connelly. Pavia is back for one more season, as is his favorite target, tight end Eli Stowers. As are four of the Commodores' top five tacklers.
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One problem: Vandy did not luck into an easy schedule this season, what with trips to Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina and Virginia Tech, plus LSU and Missouri at home. It will happen sometime in the next decade, though.
The Big Ten and SEC were 1-5 against Notre Dame last year. Super conferences? LOL. You can't even beat a team that has no conference. — Kevin H.
Very true. Though if 'performance against Notre Dame in 2024' is the new measuring stick in this sport then we should all be bowing down to the MAC.