Playbook PM: Trump's gambit

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THE CATCH-UP
TOMORROW IN ALASKA: Negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to find a solution to one of the biggest international conflicts is 'like chess,' according to President Donald Trump, and he handicapped the odds of it failing to be about 25 percent.
'This meeting sets up the second meeting,' Trump said of his Friday confab with Putin on the 'Brian Kilmeade Show' on Fox News Radio this morning. If all goes well, the president said Zelenskyy could even be on a plane set for Alaska this weekend. Though he said a location for a potential trilateral meeting isn't determined yet, Trump indicated remaining in Alaska would be the 'easiest' option. But it all depends on how successful the first meeting goes. 'If it's a bad meeting, I'm not calling anybody,' Trump said. 'I'm going home. I will call you, I will do 'Fox & Friends' some morning and we will have a lot of fun.'
But Trump is staying (mostly) optimistic. 'I believe now he's convinced that he's going to make a deal. He's going to make a deal,' Trump said of Putin, with the significant caveat that 'we're going to find out, I'm going to know very quickly.' It's worth noting, as CNN's Aaron Blake does, that Trump said something very similar about Putin shortly after he took office.
THE BIGGER PICTURE: It's hard to forget at the start of this year, the president was touting his close relationship with Putin — while dressing down Zelenskyy with VP JD Vance in the Oval Office, a start to his second tenure that had many European allies bracing for impact. It's only been in the last few months that Trump has reckoned with the idea that Putin may not want to end the war, referencing polite calls that have ultimately yielded little in the way of a ceasefire.
From where Putin stands, repairing that relationship with the U.S. president is likely to be top of mind, AP's Michelle Price and Vladimir Isachenkov report — as well as broadening economic ties with the U.S. As NYT's Ivan Nechepurenko writes from Moscow, that much is evident in Putin's flattery of Trump ahead of the summit, lauding Trump's 'quite energetic efforts to stop the fighting, end the crisis, and reach agreements of interest to all parties involved in this conflict.'
But looking deeper: Russia's military doubled down on recruitment and production to pull themselves ahead. It's now 'a war of attrition favoring Russia,' as NYT's Anatoly Kurmanaev and colleagues report in a timely must-read this morning on why Putin believes he has the upper hand in the conflict. 'Putin figures that he can manage the wartime pressures longer than Ukraine and can secure a peace deal that would ensure his legacy. … If talks with President Trump in Alaska this week don't lead to such a deal, Mr. Putin has signaled that he is willing to fight on, using force to achieve what diplomacy cannot.'
Meanwhile, for Zelenskyy: Tomorrow's summit will determine, as NYT's Constant Méheut puts it, if Kyiv's two greatest fears come to pass: (1) if Ukraine will be put in a position to make territorial concessions, and (2) if Putin is given a lifeline out of political exile. The Ukrainian leader has been adamant that Ukraine must be involved in peace negotiations, and its constitution leaves no room for legally recognizing any of Russia's claims to its territory. It's taken him on diplomacy trips across Europe — the latest today with British PM Keir Starmer, who are both hoping tomorrow leads to a ceasefire.
It's too soon to know what the specifics of a deal might be, but Trump said this morning that negotiations will cover 'give-and-take as to boundaries, land, etcetera, etcetera,' as USA Today's Joey Garrison notes. 'He wants to sit down and look the Russian president in the eye and see what progress can be made to move the ball forward,' White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on 'Fox & Friends' this morning.
The view from Alaska: A thousand Ukrainian refugees have moved to Alaska since the war started, but NYT's Jack Healy and colleagues report from Anchorage that 'Alaska's recent Ukrainian arrivals said Mr. Putin's looming visit had jolted them on a deeper level, bringing a war that is never far from their minds right into their backyards.'
Order of events: The Russian delegation is now on its way to Anchorage. Come tomorrow, Trump will meet with Putin one-on-one first at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. The U.S. and Russian delegations will then have a bilateral lunch, and then Trump and Putin will have a joint news conference, Leavitt said.
What else might be on Trump's mind: 'Trump cold-called Norwegian minister to ask about Nobel Peace Prize,' by POLITICO's Elena Giordano
Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. As always, inbox is open at [e-mail].
9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW
1. THE ECONOMY, STUPID: The Labor Department announced today that jobless claims slightly fell last week. The new report 'continues to suggest that the labor market is avoiding a sizeable increase in layoffs,' WSJ's Matt Grossman reports. The bad news: The producer price index increased 0.9 percent, the biggest number since inflation peaked in June 2022, and service costs went up by 1.1 percent, the most since March 2022. But the PPI is considered a 'bellwether for the prices consumers may see in the months ahead,' which all comes back around to Trump's tariff, per CNN's Alicia Wallace.
What Trump won't like: This may validate the Federal Reserve's waiting game to slashing interest rates, and may limit how much they can cut come the September meeting, NYT's Colby Smith writes.
What Trump will like: 'The CEO in chief: How Trump is getting what he wants from big business,' by NBC's Rob Wile and Allan Smith
2. TRUMP TAKES D.C.: D.C. Police Chief Pamela Smith has issued a new executive order stating that officers 'may now assist federal immigration enforcement by sharing information about people not in custody and by transporting federal immigration agency employees and their detained suspects,' WaPo's Jenny Gathright and Olivia George report. However, the order 'does not change the D.C. law that prohibits local law enforcement from providing information about people in D.C. custody to federal immigration enforcement.'
The latest numbers: With 19 agencies working overnight in D.C., White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on 'Fox & Friends' this morning that 45 arrests were made — and 29 immigrants were detained last night, with Leavitt saying many had final orders of removal. The new numbers come as videos are surfacing of homeless encampments in D.C. being removed with a bulldozer.
The sticky points: This is just the latest assignment that rank-and-file FBI agents have been put on that they're not specially trained for, CNN's Holmes Lybrand and colleagues write. Many work mainly at a desk — but as of late have been tasked with poring over the Jeffrey Epstein files, detaining immigrants and now patrolling Washington. D.C. officials are running up against the reality that much of Washington is controlled by the federal government, which hampers them from effecting the kind of change Trump has been calling for, per NYT's Emily Badger and Amy Fan.
Bizarre story: The man charged with assault for throwing a sandwich at an FBI officer was a DOJ employee who has since been fired, according to AG Pam Bondi. Bloomberg Law's Suzanne Monyak reports that Sean Charles Dunn, who was charged yesterday, was an international affairs specialist with the Office of International Affairs.
3. THE CRISIS IN GAZA: Israel is planning to extend settlements into the 'E1' area of the West Bank, effectively splitting the territory in half in a move that Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said 'buries the idea of a Palestinian state,' Bloomberg's Dan Williams reports. Meanwhile, the attacks on Gaza City rage on. More from the NYT on the record-high attacks
The response: Over 100 nonprofit groups today warned that aid restrictions in Gaza will block relief from reaching Palestinians, per AP's Wafaa Shurafa and Sam Metz. '[Most] of them have not been able to deliver 'a single truck' of life-saving assistance since Israel implemented a blockade in March.' Meanwhile, Israel hosted 15 MAGA influencers this week in a trip funded by Israel365 as they look to strengthen pro-Israel sentiment among younger Republicans, Axios' Tal Axelrod reports. But the trip has proved divisive: Steve Bannon's podcast 'parted ways with MAGA influencer Jayne Zirkle over her participation.'
4. CAPITULATION CORNER: 'Law Firms That Settled With Trump Are Asked to Help on Trade Deals,' by NYT's Michael Schmidt and Maggie Haberman: 'Two of the law firms that reached deals with President Trump this year to avoid punitive executive orders were connected in recent months with the Commerce Department about working on trade deals … The firms, Kirkland & Ellis and Skadden Arps, were connected to the department by Mr. Trump's personal lawyer, Boris Epshteyn … Kirkland and Ellis went on to work on the trade deals the administration struck with Japan and South Korea, which were announced in July, according to three of the people. It is unclear if Skadden Arps has done work for the administration.'
5. RED-LIGHT REDISTRICTING: Republicans are betting that the five new seats they have set up in a redrawn Texas map will go red because of Latino voters who've turned out for Trump — but Latinos in South Texas say they aren't committed to Republicans, and may vote Democrat again, WaPo's Sabrina Rodriguez writes. … Republicans in California from different circles are coming together to stop Gov. Gavin Newsom from redrawing their state map — a coalition that includes Hollywood star and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the League of Women Voters, CNN's Arit John reports.
6. CUTTING DEEP: Kari Lake, who's been running the U.S. Agency for Global Media, defended her reduction of the agency to a federal judge in a court filing. But Lake is also now under investigation by the Government Accountability Office into whether she overstepped her authority, following emails from bipartisan staffers on the Hill warning Lake that she was breaking the law, WaPo's Scott Nover reports. … In Maine, a group of clinics will ask a federal court today to restore their Medicaid funding — which has been blocked by Republicans' One Big Beautiful Bill Act prohibiting federal funding for abortion providers, per AP's Patrick Whittle.
7. IMMIGRATION FILES: A new immigration detention facility at Fort Bliss in Texas has plans to become the biggest in the country, but the construction has been marred by months of investigations, canceled contracts and the recent death of a subcontractor at the work site. The stream of logistical problems and tragedy comes as pressure builds to find space for Trump's deportation push, NBC's Laura Strickler and colleagues report. And while the new tent-style facilities are faster to build, they'll also cost DHS more money. … Down in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced the state will spend $6 million to get immigration detention facility Baker Correctional Institution back up and running, POLITICO's Gary Fineout writes.
8. THE MAHA AGENDA: 'Congress is lukewarm on RFK Jr.'s plans. In the states, they're catching fire,' by POLITICO's Amanda Chu: 'A POLITICO analysis found more than 130 bills aimed at regulating ultraprocessed foods and improving nutrition, over 60 bills restricting the application of pesticides and other chemicals and more than 130 bills expanding vaccine exemptions or prohibiting mandates this year. … The measures emerging from state legislatures, long seen as testing grounds for federal policy, show how [HHS Secretary Robert F.] Kennedy's movement to combat chronic disease has struck a chord across the country — even as it conflicts with traditional Republican views about regulating industry.'
9. LIVE FROM NEW YORK: NYC Mayor Eric Adams told POLITICO's Joe Anuta that he's staying in the mayoral race until the very end, despite dismal approval numbers and equally bad polling compared with Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, the frontrunner in the race, and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Adams said he believes all of the candidates would harm the city's progress, but wouldn't say if he thought Cuomo or Mamdani would be worse: 'Both of them are extremely problematic.' … Meanwhile, Mamdani's camp is waiting to see if a key endorsement lands: Gov. Kathy Hochul, who's still having 'interesting conversations' about the race after she opted out of endorsing in the primary, NYT's Grace Ashford writes.
TALK OF THE TOWN
Hunter Biden has a response to Melania Trump's threat of a $1 billion defamation lawsuit against him over his remarks tying the first lady to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein: In a video interview with Andrew Callaghan's 'Channel 5,' Biden replies to Trump's demand for an apology: 'Fuck that. That's not going to happen.'
Larry Hogan is hinting at a potential political return in the future.
Rob Bresnahan says he and his fiancée Chelsea Strub are being targeted by a harassment campaign ahead of their wedding.
MEDIA MOVES — Emma Uber is now a breaking news reporter on the local desk at WaPo. She previously was WaPo's inaugural fellow on the local desk.
TRANSITIONS — Megan Quinn is now digital director for Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.). She previously was a digital senior account manager at CRC Advisors. … Lauren Cavignano is now a public policy manager at Meta. She previously was a public affairs specialist at McKinsey & Company. … Brendan Quinn is now a policy advisor in the Office of Policy Development & Research at HUD. He most recently was special projects manager at America Rising LLC.
ENGAGED — Graham Turner, senior lead engineering manager at Capital One, and Jaymi Light, head of government affairs at SAS, got engaged on Saturday at Baha Mar in the Bahamas. They met at a workout class on the roof of Union market during COVID. Pic, via Clifton Barry Photography … Another pic
WEDDING — Victoria Bonney, senior adviser to Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), and Mark Greenbaum, senior adviser to Rep. Nellie Pou (D-N.J.), got married today at Two Lights State Park in Cape Elizabeth, Maine. They met in 2018 through the House Democratic Press Secretaries listserv, when Bonney asked for a C-SPAN contact. Pic, via James Hardman
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Correction: Yesterday's Playbook PM misspelled Will Weissert's name.