Could bumper A-level grades this year could be the 'new normal'?
The number of students getting top A-level grades is likely to be higher than before the pandemic.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has predicted a 'pretty straightforward year'. However, it has also been suggested that grade inflation could be creeping back in.
Professor Alan Smithers, the director of education at the University of Buckingham, who forecasts exam results each summer, said last year's bumper A-level grades were likely to continue in 2025.
In a report published ahead of A-level results day, he said that the proportion of A-level entries scoring top grades this summer is likely to be higher than pre-COVID years, and could be the "new normal".
The rate of A*s handed out at A-level had been gradually declining since the exams regulator was introduced in 2010 to clamp down on grade inflation.
However, top grades surged during the pandemic when formal exams were replaced by teacher assessments, leading to the proportion of A*s nearly trebling between 2019 and 2021, with almost one in five A-levels awarded the top possible grade four years ago.
So what is on the cards for students this year?
What date are exam results for A-levels released?
A-level and AS results are out on 14 August, while GCSE results will be released on 21 August.
Pupils in England will also receive results for T-levels – which were launched to provide high-quality technical alternatives to A-levels – on 14 August, and pupils taking vocational technical qualifications (VTQs) will also get their results this month.
Scotland has a different qualification system and students received their results on 5 August.
What time are A-level results released?
A-level results are expected to come out at 8.00am BST on 14 August, and can be collected in person from this time, while GCSE results also come out at 8.00am BST on 21 August.
A-level students may also receive an email from their chosen university on the day the results come out.
What is expected of A-level results this year?
Last year, 27.8% of UK A-level entries were awarded an A or A* grade, up from 27.2% in 2023.
It was the highest proportion of entries scoring top grades outside the pandemic-affected years of 2020-22.
In 2019 – the last year that summer exams were taken before the pandemic – 25.4% of entries were awarded A or A* grades.
The COVID pandemic led to a marked increase in top A-level and GCSE grades in 2020 and 2021, with results based on teacher assessments instead of exams.
Prof Smithers said that grade inflation could be "creeping back in again", saying: 'A-level grades have a chance to settle down this year after the volatility of Covid and its aftermath. They are likely to be close to last year's, where top grades were a percentage point or two above pre-Covid levels."
He said although last year's results made this year's harder to predict, 'my best guess is that the grade pattern in 2024 could be the start of a new normal', adding: 'It may be that grades never get back to what was regarded as the norm before the Covid crisis, and 2024 has set the new benchmark."
What happened to A-level and GCSE results during COVID?
In-person exams were cancelled during the pandemic, with those due to sit A-levels and GCSEs in 2020 and 2021 instead having their results based on teacher assessments.
As such, the results for both A-levels and GCSEs shot up during these two years - with 38.1% of A-level entries in England achieving A and A* in 2020, and 44.3% of A-level entries achieving A and A* grades in 2021 (up from 25.2% in 2019).
However, the following two years saw these results decrease, to 36.4% of A and A* grades in 2022 and 27.2% of A and A* grades in 2023, with last year's results closer to pre-pandemic levels (at 27.8%).
Is COVID still affecting the way pupils sit exams?
Exam aids have been given to GCSE pupils in England in maths, physics and combined science since 2022 to limit the impact of COVID on learning.
In October last year, the education secretary asked England's exams regulator Ofqual to continue providing formulae and equation sheets to GCSE pupils in these subjects in 2025, 2026 and 2027.
Most pupils who took their GCSE exams this summer were in Year 6 when schools closed after the national lockdown in 2020.
What do the results mean for university places?
A record number of 18-year-olds are likely to be successful in securing their first choice of university this A-level results day even if they narrowly miss their grades, the head of Ucas has suggested.
Jo Saxton, chief executive of the university admissions service, told the PA news agency it was a 'good year to be a UK-domiciled 18-year-old' that wants to go to university, as British universities are keen to recruit UK school and college leavers due to 'uncertainty' around the international market.
Nearly 22,700 courses with vacancies for undergraduate students living in England were available on the Ucas clearing site as of Wednesday last week – eight days before results day, a PA analysis showed.
A sample of 129 of the UK's largest higher education providers showed 17 of the 24 elite Russell Group universities had more than 3,600 courses with vacancies for English residents on clearing.
What can students do if they do not get their first-choice university?
If you don't get the grades to win a place at your first choice university, you can go through "clearing".
Students who did not receive any offers, or who have changed their mind about what or where they wish to study, and also those who have applied outside the normal application window, can also use the clearing process through Ucas.
Applicants will be able to add a clearing choice from 1pm on results day.
In England, if a student is unhappy with their grade they can ask their school or college to request that the exam board review the marking.
If there are still concerns, the student can ask their school or college to appeal against the result.
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