Who will be the next pope? Leading candidate could be first Asian pontiff

Telegraph

26-04-2025

With the death of Pope Francis at the age of 88, the world's attention now turns to who will replace him.
Predicting who will be chosen as the next leader of the world's 1.2 billion Catholics is notoriously fraught with difficulties. In theory, any baptised Catholic male could be made Pope.
In practice, however, the next pontiff will likely be drawn from the cardinals who will gather in the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican for the secret papal election known as the conclave.
After Pope Benedict XVI stepped down in 2013, very few Vatican observers predicted that Jorge Mario Bergoglio from Argentina would be elected as Pope Francis.
This time around, there are no stand-out candidates, making the guessing game even more challenging.
But there are names of potential 'papabile' (likely candidates for the papacy) swirling around the corridors of the Vatican.
Their diverse origins reflect the vast global reach of the Catholic Church.
The contest is likely to come down to a battle between progressives who applaud the late pope's comparatively liberal stance on divorcees, gays and the plight of refugees, and conservatives who loathed his agenda.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67
The frontrunner in the betting markets would be the first Asian pope.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, from the Philippines, is a name often mentioned among liberals within the Catholic Church.
Dubbed 'the Asian Francis' for his good humour and progressive views, he has some of Pope Francis' humility – at the seminary in the Philippines where he lived for about 20 years, his room had no air-conditioning or television.
Even when made a bishop, he eschewed a car and went to work in a bus or 'jeepney'.
Edward Pentin, a Vatican expert and the author of The Next Pope: The Leading Cardinal Candidates, said: 'Five or six years ago, he was Pope Francis's favourite to succeed him. He's head of the important new super-dicastery for evangelisation. He's quite a strong contender. And he's still relatively young,'
His age may count against him, however – cardinals are wary of appointing a relatively young man because his papacy could last decades, thwarting their own ambitions and squeezing their chances of one day being elected.
Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76
A key adviser to Pope Francis on issues such as climate change and social justice, Cardinal Peter Turkson would be the first black pope.
Born in Ghana, Pope John Paul II appointed him archbishop of Cape Coast in 1992 and, 11 years later, made him the first cardinal in the history of the West African state.
Promotions continued under John Paul's successor, Benedict, who brought him to the Vatican in 2009 and made him the head of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace – the body that promotes social justice, human rights and world peace.
In that role, he was one of the Pope's closest advisers on issues such as climate change and drew much attention by attending conferences such as the Davos Economic Forum.
Pope Francis merged Cardinal Turkson's department in 2016 with three other offices, leading to what some saw as a power struggle between him and another cardinal.
Cardinal Turkson resigned from that role in 2021 and was appointed to head two pontifical academies on sciences and social sciences.
In 2023, he told the BBC he prayed 'against' the possibility that he would be elected Pope, but some of his detractors said given his media appearances, it appeared he was campaigning for the job.
Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72
For the conservatives, there is Peter Erdo, a Hungarian cardinal and Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.
Mr Pentin said: 'Erdo is a leading contender for the conservative wing of the Church. People like him because he is a strong canonist – he's proficient in Church law.
'Many Catholics feel that the Church needs to be brought back from a sense of ecclesiastical lawlessness that evolved under Francis. Erdo would be a safe pair of hands.'
He ranks as a conservative in theology, and in speeches throughout Europe, he stresses the Christian roots of the continent. However, he is also seen to be pragmatic and never clashed openly with Francis, unlike other tradition-minded clerics.
That said, he raised eyebrows in the Vatican during the 2015 migrant crisis when he went against Pope Francis' call for churches to take in refugees, saying this would amount to human trafficking – seemingly aligning himself with Hungary's nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70
Pietro Parolin, the current secretary of state for the Vatican – in effect, its prime minister – is also considered to be a leading candidate.
His profile rose during the Ukraine war as the Vatican presented itself as an honest broker that could eventually mediate with Moscow to bring the conflict to a close.
Thomas Reese, an American Catholic priest and the author of Inside the Vatican, said: 'He's a very competent diplomat.
'He's been the brains behind Pope Francis' international diplomacy. He doesn't put a foot wrong.'
He is tarnished, however, by a property scandal in which the Vatican lost millions of euros through the bungled purchase of a former Harrods showroom in London.
'Questions will be raised about whether he was incompetent or delegated responsibility to subordinates. Either way, something went wrong, and he was the boss. There's an ongoing trial, so it could overshadow his papacy,' said Father Reese, who is also a columnist for Religion News Service.
Other candidates
Another Italian in the mix is Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, the Archbishop of Bologna, a progressive who is regarded as having been close to Francis. The 69-year-old is closely affiliated with the Sant' Egidio Community, a Rome-based Catholic charity that was influential under Francis.
Cardinal Zuppi has extensive experience of conflict resolution. He was part of Sant'Egidio's team that helped negotiate the end of Mozambique's civil war in the 1990s and was named Francis' peace envoy for the war in Ukraine, shuttling between Kyiv, Washington, Moscow and Beijing.
He was appointed a cardinal in 2019 and is regarded as a progressive in the mould of Francis. His relative youth may count against him – cardinals could be wary of appointing someone whose papacy could last for many years, concerned that the direction he takes the Church would become too entrenched.
Aside from Cardinal Parolin and Cardinal Zuppi, there is a third Italian name coming to the fore: Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, a 59-year-old Franciscan who is the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. He is Italian but has broad experience of the wider world, having spent decades in the Middle East.
He speaks Italian, Hebrew and English. His long years observing the Israel-Palestine conflict mean he is an expert at interfaith dialogue and mediation. He could be seen as a bridge between East and West. Francis appointed him a cardinal in 2023.
There has never been a Pope from North America but some Vatican observers think Cardinal Robert Prevost may be in with a chance. Born in Chicago, the 69-year-old has plenty of experience working in the global south – he was a missionary in Peru and then an archbishop.
He is currently the head of the Vatican's powerful dicastery (department) for bishops, in charge of vetting nominations for bishops around the world. But like Cardinal Zuppi, his relative youth may weigh against him – cardinals could be reluctant to choose a pope who could reign for a couple of decades.
Cardinal Jose Tolentino Calaca de Mendonca is a candidate from the liberal wing of the Church. He comes from the Portuguese island of Madeira and was appointed by Pope Francis as head of a department for culture and education.
Staying within Europe, Cardinal Mario Grech from Malta, the secretary-general of the Synod of bishops, is thought to have a decent chance of landing the top job.
He is seen as having been close to Pope Francis but a conservative at heart, meaning he could fit the bill as a compromise candidate.
Another African who is being mentioned is Cardinal Robert Sarah, from Guinea, who has criticised gender ideology and denounced Islamic radicalism.
Other names of 'papabile' (literally 'pope-able) cardinals include Jean-Marc Aveline from France, Joseph Tobin from the US, Juan Jose Omella Omella, the archbishop of Barcelona, and Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo who, if elected, would become the first black pope.
Forecasting a winner is a risky business
Since Pope Francis was elected in 2013, he has appointed about two-thirds of the cardinals who are eligible to elect the next pope.
'Close to half the cardinals are now from the global south. They have issues that are different to issues in Europe and the US. They're concerned about global warming, poverty, civil wars, corruption in government,' said Father Reese.
'All politics is local. Every cardinal wants to know how the next pope will be viewed in their country. Is he someone who will listen to me, who speaks my language? They could choose a cardinal from the global south.'
Vatican rules state that cardinals must reach a two-thirds majority when they gather to vote in the conclave, which is held inside the Sistine Chapel. For now, there is no leading candidate.
There are so many variables, and the process is so opaque, that forecasting a winner is a risky business.
'Last time around, when Benedict XVI resigned, I predicted that there was no way they would elect a Jesuit pope. They went ahead and elected a Jesuit pope. It proved how poor our understanding was,' said Father Reese.