What to know about the flash floods in Texas that killed more than 80 people
Here's what to know about the deadly flooding, the colossal weather system that drove it in and around Kerr County, Texas, and ongoing efforts to identify victims.
The floods grew to their worst at the midpoint of a long holiday weekend when many people were asleep.
The Texas Hill Country in the central part of the state is naturally prone to flash flooding due to the dry dirt-packed areas where the soil lets rain skid along the surface of the landscape instead of soaking it up. Friday's flash floods started with a particularly bad storm that dropped most of its 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain in the dark early morning hours.
After a flood watch notice midday Thursday, the National Weather Service office issued an urgent warning around 4 a.m. that raised the potential of catastrophic damage and a severe threat to human life. By at least 5:20 a.m., some in the Kerrville City area say water levels were getting alarmingly high. The massive rain flowing down hills sent rushing water into the Guadalupe River, causing it to rise 26 feet in just 45 minutes.
Camp Mystic 'grieving the loss' of 27 campers and counselors following catastrophic Texas floodsGov. Greg Abbott said Sunday that there were 41 people confirmed to be unaccounted for across the state and more could be missing.
In Kerr County, home to youth camps in the Texas Hill Country, searchers have found the bodies of 68 people, including 28 children, Sheriff Larry Leitha said Sunday afternoon. Fatalities in nearby counties brought the total number of deaths to 79 as of Sunday evening.
Ten girls and a counselor were still unaccounted for at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along the river.
For past campers, the tragedy turned happy memories into grief.
Beyond the Camp Mystic campers unaccounted for, the number of missing from other nearby campgrounds and across the region had not been released.
'We don't even want to begin to estimate at this time,' Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said Saturday, citing the likely influx of visitors during the July Fourth holiday.
Survivors have described the floods as a 'pitch black wall of death' and said they received no emergency warnings.
Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, who lives along the Guadalupe River, said Saturday that ' nobody saw this coming.' Various officials have referred to it as a '100-year-flood,' meaning that the water levels were highly unlikely based on the historical record.
And records behind those statistics don't always account for human-caused climate change. Though it's hard to connect specific storms to a warming planet so soon after they occur, meteorologists say that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and allow severe storms to dump even more rain.
Additionally, officials have come under scrutiny about why residents and youth summer camps along the river were not alerted sooner than 4 a.m. or told to evacuate.
Officials noted that the public can grow weary from too many flooding alerts or forecasts that turn out to be minor.
Kerr county officials said they had presented a proposal for a more robust flood warning system, similar to a tornado warning system, but that members of the public reeled at the cost.
On Sunday, officials walked out of a news briefing after reporters asked them again about delays in alerts and evacuations.
The flash floods have erased campgrounds and torn homes from their foundations.
'It's going to be a long time before we're ever able to clean it up, much less rebuild it,' Kelly said Saturday after surveying the destruction from a helicopter.
Other massive flooding events have driven residents and business owners to give up, including in areas struck last year by Hurricane Helene.
President Donald Trump said he would likely visit the flood zone on Friday.
AP photographers have captured the scale of the destruction, and one of Texas' largest rescue and recover efforts.
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Yahoo
15 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott says flood response will be evaluated in special session
The Texas Division of Emergency Management had multiple meetings to prepare, but the National Weather Service "did not predict the amount of rain" that actually fell, officials said, adding that forecasters originally estimated up to 8 inches of rainfall for the area.
Hamilton Spectator
21 minutes ago
- Hamilton Spectator
Authorities will wait to address questions about Texas floods, as search for the dead goes on
KERRVILLE, Texas (AP) — Authorities overseeing the search for flood victims in Texas said Monday that they will wait to address questions about weather warnings and why some summer camps did not evacuate ahead of the catastrophic flooding that killed nearly 90 people over the July Fourth weekend. The officials spoke only hours after the operators of Camp Mystic, a century-old all-girls Christian summer camp in the Texas Hill Country, announced that they lost 27 campers and counselors to the floodwaters. Meanwhile, search-and-rescue teams carried on with the search for the dead, using heavy equipment to untangle trees and wading into swollen rivers. Volunteers covered in mud sorted through chunks of debris, piece by piece, in an increasingly bleak task. With additional rain on the way, more flooding still threatened in saturated parts of central Texas. Authorities said the death toll was sure to rise. The announcement by Camp Mystic confirmed the worst fears after a wall of water slammed into cabins built along the edge of the Guadalupe River. The local sheriff later said that 10 girls and a counselor from the camp remained missing. The raging flash floods — among the nation's worst in decades — slammed into riverside camps and homes before daybreak Friday, pulling sleeping people out of their cabins, tents and trailers and dragging them for miles past floating tree trunks and automobiles. Some survivors were found clinging to trees. Piles of twisted trees sprinkled with mattresses, refrigerators and coolers now litter the riverbanks. Caught in the debris were reminders of what drew so many to the campgrounds and cabins in the Hill Country — a volleyball, canoes and a family portrait. In hard-hit Kerr County, home to Camp Mystic and several other summer camps, searchers have found the bodies of 75 people, including 27 children, Sheriff Larry Leitha said. Fourteen other deaths were reported in Travis, Burnet, Kendall, Tom Green and Williamson counties, according to local officials. Among those confirmed dead were 8-year-old sisters from Dallas who were at Camp Mystic and a former soccer coach and his wife who were staying at a riverfront home. Their daughters were still missing. Calls for finding why warnings weren't heard Authorities vowed that one of the next steps would be investigating whether enough warnings were issued and why some camps did not evacuate or move to higher ground in a place long vulnerable to flooding that some local residents refer to as 'flash flood alley.' That will include a review of how weather warnings were sent out and received. One of the challenges is that many camps and cabins are in places with poor cellphone service, said Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice. 'We definitely want to dive in and look at all those things,' he said. 'We're looking forward to doing that once we can get the search and rescue complete.' Some camps, though, were aware of the dangers and monitoring the weather. At least one moved several hundred campers to higher ground before the floods. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, said recent government spending cuts to the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service did not delay any warnings. 'There's a time to have political fights, there's a time to disagree. This is not that time,' Cruz said. 'There will be a time to find out what could been done differently. My hope is in time we learn some lessons to implement the next time there is a flood.' The weather service first advised of potential flooding on Thursday and then sent out a series of flash flood warnings in the early hours of Friday before issuing flash flood emergencies — a rare step that alerts the public to imminent danger. Authorities and elected officials have said they did not expect such an intense downpour, the equivalent of months of rain . Some residents said they never received any warnings. President Donald Trump, who signed a major disaster declaration for Kerr County and plans to visit the area, said Sunday that he does not plan to rehire any of the federal meteorologists who were fired this year. 'This was a thing that happened in seconds. Nobody expected it,' the president said. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said local and federal weather services provided sufficient warnings. 'That was an act of God. It's not the administration's fault that the flood hit when it did, but there were early and consistent warnings,' Leavitt said. More than three dozen people were unaccounted for across the state and more could be missing, Gov. Greg Abbott said Sunday. Search-and-rescue crews at one staging area said Monday that more than 1,000 volunteers had been directed to Kerr County. Little time to escape floods Reagan Brown said his parents, in their 80s, managed to escape uphill as water inundated their home in the town of Hunt. When the couple learned that their 92-year-old neighbor was trapped in her attic, they went back and rescued her. 'Then they were able to reach their tool shed up higher ground, and neighbors throughout the early morning began to show up at their tool shed, and they all rode it out together,' Brown said. Elizabeth Lester, a mother of children who were at Camp Mystic and nearby Camp La Junta during the flood, said her young son had to swim out his cabin window to escape. Her daughter fled up the hillside as floodwaters whipped against her legs. ___ Seewer reported from Toledo, Ohio. Contributing to this report were Associated Press writers Michael Biesecker and Brian Slodysko in Washington; Andrew DeMillo in Little Rock, Arkansas; Kathy McCormack in Concord, New Hampshire; Christopher Weber in Los Angeles; Hannah Schoenbaum in Salt Lake City and Sophia Tareen in Chicago. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
USA Today
24 minutes ago
- USA Today
Who's to blame for Texas flooding tragedy? There is a lot of finger pointing.
The catastrophe was caused by a perfect storm of difficult-to-forecast rainfall and fast-moving water. Some wonder if budget cuts made things worse. The Texas rains hadn't even slowed before the debate began about why forecasts had underestimated the devastating flooding over Independence Day weekend. Local and state officials, social media users and even the meteorology community raised questions. What were the National Weather Service forecasts? Why is it so hard to know where rain will fall? Did staff reductions at the weather service, and other budget cuts by the Trump administration contribute to the catastrophe? What role did weather balloons play in the storm forecasts? Answers to some of these questions and many others may never be adequately answered, especially for the families of dozens of children swept away by floodwaters. At least 81 people died between July 4 and 6 and dozens more were injured or remain missing, state officials said. On a weekend when families often celebrate with cookouts and fireworks, these families, overwhelmed with grief, were providing DNA samples so a state laboratory could rapidly identify victims. Impact of cuts: NOAA budget spells out plans to reduce spending and abandon climate research A series of circumstances, colliding at the worst possible location and time, caused the tremendous flooding, several meteorologists told USA TODAY. During a July 6 news conference, Texas state officials said there would be much to discuss in the weeks ahead. A few things are known, including how difficult it remains to pinpoint where thunderstorms will drop their heaviest rain, what the weather service said and when, and staffing levels at two local forecast offices. The horrific tragedy arrived in the midst of a maelstrom already brewing over the National Weather Service, its parent agency and the Trump administration's budget cuts. It's 'clear that many people are allowing their desire to score political points to color their insights and opinions on this tragedy," Alan Gerard, who retired earlier this year from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, wrote in his Substack blog on July 6. 'The National Weather Service office did everything they should do from everything I can tell,' said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground, a commercial forecasting agency, and a former hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters. Despite the recent cuts to NOAA, the National Weather Service performed well in the Texas tragedy and in the recent deadly flooding in Kentucky, Masters said. 'It reminds us how important it is to have talented, experienced people at a well-funded National Weather Service.' 'But we are pushing our luck," he noted," if we think the cuts at NOAA won't cause a breakdown in our ability to get people out of harm's way in the future.' Were weather forecasts wrong? Although the warnings arrived less than 24 hours before the flooding started, long-time weather service veterans and regional experts say that's not all that unusual in this region. It's a known shortcoming of the localized rain models forecasters use. They can't yet pinpoint exactly where intense rain might fall and when on an individual community. One expert, Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon, said it appears the weather service employees in Austin/San Antonio did what they could, based on the available information. "From what I saw, the warnings were pretty timely," said Nielsen-Gammon, a meteorology professor at Texas A&M University, The weather service office first advised on July 1 and 2 that a very moist air mass was moving in that would increase rain chances across south-central Texas with heavy rain at times that could lead to minor local early morning forecast on July 3 by the NWS Weather Prediction Center said the region should expect 'unseasonably moist' air that could bring 1 to 2 inches of rain an hour and lead to flooding, with approaching storms tapping into abundant tropical moisture. As the day progressed, a clearer picture emerged of how weather systems were interacting above Texas to form storms. An 'urgent' flood watch at 1:18 p.m. July 3 warned heavy rain, with isolated amounts of 5 to 7 inches, could cause flash flooding and 'excessive' runoff that could flood rivers and streams. The watch covered eight counties, including Kerr and Bandera where some of the heaviest flooding occurred. By 7:02 p.m., the weather prediction center warned leftover bits of Tropical Storm Barry, near-record moisture and an unstable atmosphere meant any storms that formed could be self-sustaining, with a potential for rain rates of more than 3 inches an hour, and they could rain over the same area again and again. It stated: 'Considerable flash flooding this evening is possible." A flurry of forecast updates continued. At 1:14 a.m. on July 4, the weather service issued a "Flash Flood Warning" for central Kerr County and northwestern Bandera County. Almost simultaneously, water flow began increasing dramatically on the Guadalupe River at Hunt, Texas. "This pleasing stream had a flow rate of 53 gallons per second at midnight on July 4," said Nielsen-Gammon. At 3 a.m., it was flowing at 264 gallons per second. Between 3 a.m. and 3:30 am., the water flow jumped to 125,000 gallons per second. Within four hours of the initial rise, the river level jumped 21.8 feet and was flowing at 900,000 gallons per second. Did weather service cuts have an impact? President Donald Trump campaigned on cutting the federal bureaucracy and reducing the budget. His administration, including the Office of Management and Budget and the Department of Governmental Efficiency, has been mission-focused on doing so. The sweeping cuts left many federal offices short-staffed and demoralized, according to recent retirees. Many remaining employees, including those who declined to speak on the record for fear of retribution, say employees still fear more jobs will be lost in a reduction in force. Federal agencies were required to prepare a plan for making further reductions, but a federal judge in California ruled in May that the job cuts could not move forward. The weather service office in Austin/San Antonio oversees much of the Hill Country area where the flooding took place. Of the 26 staff positions in that office, six are vacant at the moment, including two senior members, said Victor Murphy, a recently retired National Weather Service meteorologist in Texas. One of those is the warning coordination meteorologist who oversees emergency warnings and working with local officials on communicating around such events. The Austin office also is short two forecasters. Did the cuts play any role in the recent tragedy? Murphy wondered out loud. "I don't know … The fact is that the office had record flooding two days in a row.' The San Angelo, Texas office is down four positions, including a staff forecaster, a lead hydrologist and its meteorologist in charge, said Tom Fahy, legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization. Weather service forecasters often become "an easy target for people's wrath," when people are looking for someone to blame, Fahy said. 'The real blame is the Trump Administration budget cuts to NWS and FEMA that cut off coordination planning with local emergency management officials,' he said. 'Even during Trump's 1st term, NWS managers would plan, practice and train their combined teams for increased cooperation. All that ended when Trump was inaugurated in 2025.' President Trump said July 6 that he doesn't think the federal government needs to rehire weather service meteorologists in the wake of catastrophic Texas flooding. 'I would think not,' Trump told reporters when asked about rehiring weather forecasters, adding that flooding 'happened in seconds. Nobody expected it.' When asked if he would investigate whether the cuts left key vacancies in the weather service or emergency coordination, Trump said he "wouldn't blame (former President Joe) Biden for it either. I would just say this is a 100-year catastrophe, and it's just so horrible for all." Why is it so hard to know where rain will fall? At a news conference on July 5, Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, said: "The original forecast that we received on Wednesday from the National Weather Service predicted 3 to 6 inches of rain in the Concho valley and 4 to 8 inches in the Hill Country." "The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts," Kidd said. Rainfall estimates in these extreme rainfall events have fallen short before, frustrating emergency managers, forecasters and even members of Congress, who approved measures in 2021 and 2022 to improve rainfall modeling and estimates of maximum possible precipitation within any given time frame. As the weather service looked at their computers on July 3, the models they use for forecasting thunderstorms wouldn't come together with a consensus on where the greatest rain would fall, according to their discussions. Many showed the potential for extreme rainfall somewhere in central Texas, while others showed almost nothing happening, Nielsen-Gammon said. "Where it was going to develop would depend on the details of the individual thunderstorms that popped up." Pinpointing localized extreme rain remains "a very difficult challenge," said Gerard. Any time you have this type of environment, there's going to be a chance that local areas are going to get more rain than anticipated." Rainfall in a storm is 'controlled by very small-scale processes that are happening within the storm,' said Gerard, now CEO of weather consulting company Balanced Weather. 'We don't have the resolution of modeling to be able to forecast that yet.' The storms laboratory is working to develop higher resolution modeling, he said, but it's on the chopping block in the president's proposed budget. Did weather service balloon launches play a role? Weather balloon launches measure moisture up through the atmosphere to help predict how much is available for rain. The better the data, the better the outcome, said Murphy, the recently retired Texas meteorologist. "You find out from a sounding what's up 20,000, 30,000 or 40,000 feet. The only way to measure that is with a balloon.' However, staffing shortages at local weather service offices across the U.S. has forced the limiting or cancelation of numerous weather balloon launches. Of 11 locations in Texas and surrounding states that were launching in the early spring, only six of the sites now launch balloons on any given morning, Murphy said. There was only one weather balloon launch within 200 miles of the flooded area, Nielsen-Gammon said. However, that one weather balloon proved its worth, the experts said, providing essential information that helped weather service forecasters see the increased chances for rain. Launched remotely from an automated site in Del Rio, Texas, Murphy said it's "the only one of its kind in the region.' But the federal cutbacks and rising number of climate disasters mean the public is likely to blame someone for every botched forecast and missed opportunity to warn ‒ whether deservedly or not. On July 7, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt defended the president and the National Weather Service's performance. 'Blaming President Trump for these floods is a depraved lie and it serves no purpose during this time of national mourning," Leavitt said. "The National Weather Service did its job." Contributing: Zac Anderson and Joey Garrison, USA TODAY Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at dpulver@ or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
