Trump officials eye Indiana as redistricting war intensifies

The Hill

9 hours ago

The Trump administration is turning its attention to Indiana as Republicans look for other red states to follow Texas's lead in the building redistricting battle.
Vice President Vance is visiting Indianapolis on Thursday to meet with Gov. Mike Braun (R) amid chatter about potential mid-cycle redistricting in the Hoosier State. Braun has said there are no commitments at the moment, but left the door open for the matter to come up at the meeting.
The visit suggests Indiana could be one of the next states on the GOP's list to move forward with redrawing congressional maps, though it's unclear whether Indiana Republicans have the appetite for it.
'They are completely rewriting the implied rule book,' Pete Seat, a GOP strategist and former communications director for the Indiana Republican Party, said of the redistricting push.
'It's a Pandora's box, because if you do it in Texas, you do it here, you do it in some other red states. What's going to happen in the blue states? They're going to respond in kind. And then you have a redistricting arms race, and I don't know where that ends,' Seat said.
Vance's visit to Indianapolis comes amid escalating drama over a proposed redraw in Texas, where a plan backed by President Trump could net Republicans five House seats ahead of next year's high-stakes midterms.
Texas Democrats fled the state over the weekend, breaking quorum in a last-ditch bid to stall the state legislature from moving forward.
Meanwhile, the developments in the Lone Star State have had a domino effect across the country.
In calling for the Texas changes last month, Trump floated that 'there could be some other states' on the table.
The Trump administration's political allies were quietly exploring options in Indiana late last month, Punchbowl News reported. And the Indy Star reported on Wednesday that Vance was expected to talk to state leaders about a potential redraw.
Braun's office confirmed to The Hill that the governor is set for a private meeting with Vance on Thursday to discuss a number of topics, without specifying whether redistricting is on that agenda.
Vance's team also said that the vice president will 'discuss a variety of issues' with Braun and state officials while in town to headline a Republican National Committee fundraiser, according to a statement obtained by NewsNation, The Hill's sister station.
'At the end of the day, it's up to Braun and the state legislature. But … I'm sure [redistricting] is going to be touched upon, because it's a situation where you would be, if the opportunity presents itself based on the law, on the data, etc, then you'd be foolish not to try to take advantage of it,' said GOP strategist Ford O'Connell, a former Trump White House and campaign surrogate.
Asked on Tuesday whether he'd call for a special session if the vice president asked him to do so for redistricting, the Indiana governor told reporters that 'whatever we discuss there, and if that topic comes up, it's exploratory.'
'So there's been no commitments made other than, I think they're going to come into every state that's got the possibility of that happening, and obviously you can see in Texas how that's eventuated,' Braun said, according to WXIN, a NewsNation affiliate.
To change the maps, Braun would need to call a special session of the state General Assembly, where Republicans boast a supermajority — and they'd have to act quickly to make it happen before the midterms.
'My guess, if I had to guess, would be that JD Vance would try to sort of take the governor's temperature on the likelihood of a special session being called,' said Steven Webster, a political science professor at the University of Indiana in Bloomington.
O'Connell argued that it would be wise for Vance and Braun to have a conversation about the options, 'because if the shoe was on the other foot, the Democrats would be having that conversation if they hadn't already eaten up all the Republican seats.'
Republicans hold seven of the state's nine congressional seats, but some think the GOP could get at least one more.
'That seems kind of like a small thing. But on the other hand, when the balance of power is often so tight in Washington, I think there's probably value in getting any seats that you possibly could if you're a political party,' Webster said.
Redrawn Indiana lines would likely squeeze Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Ind.) in the northwest, while Rep. Andre Carson (D-Ind.) may be somewhat safer in his district around Indianapolis.
'It is no surprise that some believe redistricting is the only option to cling to power when they know the American people are rejecting the damage done by the House Republican Majority,' Mrvan said in a statement on potential Indiana redistricting, arguing it would be 'reprehensible' to call the state Assembly in for a special session on the matter.
Other Indiana Democrats have pushed back strongly against the possibility.
'Sending the Vice President here to beg for another Congressional seat is beyond absurd,' Indiana Democratic Party Chair Karen Tallian said in a statement.
State Rep. Matt Pierce said in a statement from the state House Democratic caucus that Trump and Vance are 'desperate' if they think that 'having seven of the nine seats in Indiana held by Republicans is not enough.'
Whether Vance ultimately raises the matter during his visit or not, it remains unclear whether Indiana Republicans would want to pursue it.
'We know that redistricting is expensive. And we had just done this back in 2021,' said Carly Schmitt, a political science professor at Indiana State University, pointing to redistricting efforts after the 2020 census.
'If we're thinking about the need to shore up more Republican [power] either at the state level or the congressional level, it's already happened.'
Indiana has an 'A' grade in the Gerrymandering Project's report card for its latest round of congressional redistricting, while Texas has an 'F' grade.
'My sense is there will be – and is – hesitation regarding this idea. Because Republicans in this state take great pride in how we redistrict,' Seat said. 'You're not hearing a lot of excitement for this idea that the way you have seen and heard it in Texas.'
But Indiana isn't the only sign that the Trump administration is looking for redistricting opportunities beyond the Lone Star State.
Missouri Republicans have signaled openness to redistricting after the state House Speaker pro tem reportedly got a call from the White House last month, according to the Missouri Independent.
Ohio is set to redistrict due to state requirements, and Florida Republicans have also floated a redraw in Texas's stead.
Meanwhile, Democrats are looking to counter would-be GOP gains by weighing redistricting in blue strongholds, including New York and California. The Golden State's Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has said he's moving forward with a plan to put redistricting before voters this fall, contingent on what happens in Texas.
2024 Election Coverage
The talk of tit-for-tat redistricting and the potential for other states to get involved threatens to roil next year's midterms, as Republicans defend their slim 219-212 majority in the House.
'I mean, it could very well end with the exact same margin that we have now,' Seat said.
If Texas moves forward, prompting California and other states, he added, 'I think it's just going to be a tit-for-tat until every single deadline hits.'