2025 Vikings game-by-game predictions: Will J.J. McCarthy prove to be right QB move?

Fox Sports

17 hours ago

Is there a bigger buzzkill to national expectations than quarterback uncertainty?
A year ago, the Vikings lost rookie QB J.J. McCarthy to a season-ending knee injury during the preseason. The well-traveled Sam Darnold stepped in, and Minnesota managed to go 14-3, within a single win of the best record in the NFL. The Vikings then lost their playoff opener, but they've upgraded both lines of scrimmage in the offseason and now turn to McCarthy, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 draft.
The oddsmakers are not impressed, setting Minnesota's over-under for 2025 wins at just 8.5.
That's a big expected dropoff, though some of that is rooted in a really difficult division and a tougher schedule that includes back-to-back road games overseas, an NFL first. But here's the main problem: Darnold threw for 35 touchdowns last season, and McCarthy would do well to get within 10 of that as a first-year starter, even blessed with one of the best receivers in the league in Justin Jefferson.
It wasn't like it was just Darnold in 2024 — the Vikings had the NFL's No. 5 scoring defense and a solid back in Aaron Jones. And this offseason, they've upgraded both their offensive line (G Will Fries, C Ryan Kelly) and on defense, with tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. And yet as you go through Minnesota's schedule, even if you're optimistic about Europe and see the perks of a second-place schedule, even if you don't hit the Vikings with any glaringly bad losses, it's hard to pencil in double-digit wins.
The challenge is that Minnesota went a combined 4-0 against the Packers and Bears last year, and now, it feels like 2-2 would be a solid showing. I'm optimistic of a strong start for the Vikings, but even with that, they'll need as strong a finish to stay in playoff contention.
Here's how it all shakes out: Week 1: at Bears, Monday, Sept. 8
If the Vikings hope to assert from the start that they're still in the top half of the NFC North, this is a game to make that statement, going into Soldier Field and taking some of the air out of Chicago's positive offseason. Where does the inexperience show — in the Bears' first-time head coach, Ben Johnson, or in McCarthy making his NFL debut on the road? A win here could set up a really good opening stretch for the Vikings before their Week 6 bye, but the Bears are favored slightly at home.
Result: Loss, 0-1 Week 2: vs. Falcons, Sunday, Sept. 14
Here's a battle of the NFL's two big redshirt freshmen quarterbacks, if you will. Atlanta's Michael Penix Jr. got three starts at the end of last season, but he and McCarthy are still very much unproven. Can they live up to the high standards set last year by fellow 2024 draft picks Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Drake Maye? The Vikings have won six of seven against Atlanta, including a 42-21 win last December, and this feels like a home opener where they can take care of business.
Result: Win, 1-1 Week 3: vs. Bengals, Sunday, Sept. 21
The numbers don't necessarily point to a Minnesota win here. Cincinnati was 6-3 on the road last year, and you wonder if McCarthy could win a shootout against Joe Burrow in his first real month on the job. But we'll trust in two things: Minnesota's defense remaining stout under Brian Flores, and Cincinnati's defense remaining one of the worst in the league. The Bengals can be a slow-starting team, and we'll take this as a stumble for them.
Result: Win, 2-1 Week 4: vs. Steelers in Dublin, Sunday, Sept. 28
The Vikings have back-to-back games overseas. In theory, it's easier to beat the Steelers with a fairly neutral crowd in Ireland than it would be in Pittsburgh, but the long flight and unfamiliar routine makes this game a crapshoot. Even with Aaron Rodgers under center for the Steelers, however, this feels like a low-scoring game that Minnesota can pull out.
Result: Win, 3-1 Week 5: vs. Browns in London, Sunday, Oct. 5
The Vikings will spend the week in London, which means preparing and practicing away from their home facilities. Normally, a team playing overseas can wait until Friday to fly out, so the core of game-week prep is still done at home, but Minnesota won't have that. What's more significant: It's the Browns, who should be among the NFL's worst teams on any continent. It's a three-week trifecta against the AFC North.
Result: Win, 4-1 Week 6: Bye Week 7: vs. Eagles, Sunday, Oct. 19
Welcome back to America, right? Having an extra week to shake off the jet lag and prepare for the Eagles is a plus, but this starts one of the toughest four-game stretches for any NFL team in 2025. The Vikings could be a playoff team, and they still could lose four in a row. Two years ago, Kirk Cousins threw for four touchdowns and zero interceptions, and Minnesota still lost to the Eagles.
Result: Loss, 4-2 Week 8, at Chargers, Thursday, Oct. 23
This is a quick turnaround to a Thursday night road game on the West Coast, against an 11-win team from last year. Now, the Vikings had the NFL's No. 2 rushing defense last year — and added Allen and Hargrave — but I think this is a Justin Herbert day. Two years ago against Minnesota, Herbert went 40-for-47 for 405 yards and three touchdowns. He might not complete 40 passes this time around, but it feels like a Chargers victory.
Result: Loss, 4-3 Week 9, at Lions, Sunday, Nov. 2
The NFL schedule-makers were nice enough to give Detroit a bye week before this big divisional showdown, and that makes a tough road game that much tougher. The Vikings almost beat the Lions in the teams' first meeting last year, getting the lead on a late defensive touchdown, but Detroit escaped on a last-minute field goal. It might not be so close this time.
Result: Loss, 4-4 Week 10: vs. Ravens, Sunday, Nov. 9
Minnesota faces its second Harbaugh in three weeks. The Vikings boast a solid run defense, but Baltimore's rushing game is another challenge entirely. Back in 2021, the Ravens won in overtime, with Lamar Jackson throwing for 266 yards and three touchdowns and rushing for another 120. Make it four straight losses for the Vikings to fall back below .500.
Result: Loss, 4-5 Week 11: vs. Bears, Sunday, Nov. 16
I had the Vikings losing the opener in Chicago, and now they need to beat the Bears to stop a month-long skid and collect themselves for the second-half push. The Bears will have had two months to settle in with Johnson and establish an identity, but I think Minnesota can avoid the sweep and salvage a split with a home win to get back even.
Result: Win, 5-5 Week 12: at Packers, Sunday, Nov. 23
In my game-by-game predictions for the Packers, I had Green Bay winning here, so rather than create multiple realities, I'll stick with that. The two Vikings-Packers games feel like where the season can hinge for Minnesota. If the Vikings get swept, they could be on the outside of the playoff picture, even with a winning record. Drama! Intrigue!
Result: Loss, 5-6 Week 13: at Seahawks, Sunday, Nov. 30
Remember Sam Darnold? He landed in Seattle on a three-year, $100 million deal when Minnesota decided to stick with McCarthy, and by the time this game rolls around, the Vikings should have a good idea of whether they made the right call. Seattle did much the same in moving on from Geno Smith for Darnold. Can the former Jets/Panthers/49ers/Vikings QB validate his breakout 2024 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp as his top targets? I'll say the Vikings' desire to show they made the right call is stronger.
Result: Win, 6-6 Week 14: vs. Commanders, Sunday, Dec. 7
To be 6-6 with five weeks left is to be squarely on the NFL playoff bubble. The Vikings get three of their last five at home, which helps, but they're against three playoff teams from last year. Washington is another 2024 surprise team eager to show its emergence wasn't a fluke, and the Commanders have no quarterback uncertainty to mitigate the excitement of last season.
Result: Loss, 6-7 Week 15: at Cowboys, Sunday, Dec. 14
Back-to-back NFC East road games in December is an odd draw, and begs the question: What exactly will Dallas look like at this point with a first-year coach in Brian Schottenheimer? I mentioned nasty four-game stretches earlier, and this is in the thick of the toughest of all. Dallas has the Eagles, Chiefs and Lions directly before this game, and the Chargers and Commanders right after. It could be a hellish 0-6 run for Dallas. So I'll take Minnesota to pull out a key road victory.
Result: Win, 7-7 Week 16: at Giants, Sunday, Dec. 21
This should be one of the easiest wins on Minnesota's schedule. Is Brian Daboll still New York's coach? Is Jaxson Dart showing enough that the Giants are not tempted to draft another quarterback with what should be a fairly high pick? This was a 28-6 romp for Minnesota last season, and that was when Daniel Jones was still on the other sideline. It'll be back-to-back Vikings wins for the first time in months.
Result: Win, 8-7 Week 17: vs. Lions, Thursday, Dec. 25
The Vikings close with the Lions and Packers, both at home, so they'll very much control their divisional fate to that extent. As the regular season winds down, has the game slowed down enough for McCarthy to beat a great defense like Detroit's? This would probably feel like a must-win for Minnesota to feel good about a wild-card berth, and I'll pick the upset and take the Vikings, now winners of four of five.
Result: Win, 9-7 Week 18: vs. Packers, Flex Game
The third and final NFC wild card could be on the line between these two teams in what would look good flexed into the 272nd and final game of the regular season. I already had the Vikings losing at Lambeau in Week 12, and I'll take the Packers again. Does that knock Minnesota out of the playoffs, or do the Vikings still sneak in? Only time will tell.
Result: Loss
Final Record prediction: 9-8
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman .
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