Moscow and Washington lean on allies for support

Politico

15 hours ago

With help from Daniel Lippman
Subscribe here | Email Eric
As the Anchorage summit between Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN and President DONALD TRUMP fast approaches, both Moscow and Washington have circled the wagons with their allies.
Trump spoke with a coterie of European leaders today, who downplayed that any daylight existed between them. Trump dubbed the call a '10' and said he was hopeful that the meeting with Putin would result in a second, more productive bilateral meeting. He also voiced optimism that Putin, Trump and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY could also gather for a quick trilateral meeting afterward.
Other leaders offered more specifics. German Chancellor FRIEDRICH MERZ, who convened the call, told reporters afterward that Trump 'largely shares' Europe's positions on Ukraine's security and that European leaders conveyed the importance of safeguarding 'fundamental European and Ukrainian security interests.'
French President EMMANUEL MACRON, who was also on the call with Trump, told reporters that the president agreed with European leaders that only Ukraine can negotiate any territorial concessions with Russia to end the war.
European officials seemed pleased with the call, but much will depend on what happens once Trump is in the room with Putin.
'The big win would be a ceasefire,' one senior European official told Felicia, granted anonymity to speak freely about the sensitive meeting. 'Territory is not, and should not be on the agenda Friday. My guess is there will be a backlash if Putin won't agree to ceasefire.'
SAM CHARAP, a Russia analyst at the RAND think tank, told Felicia that these shows of unity are important because Moscow will look to exploit any cracks to win a favorable deal.
'It's certainly useful for him to be able to drive wedges between the U.S. and the E.U.,' Charap said. 'When he's facing a united West, it's harder for him to get he wants.'
FRED FLEITZ, who served as National Security Council chief of staff during the first Trump administration, told Eric that Trump deserves credit for consulting the Europeans and listening to their perspectives before he meets with Putin. The call also reduces the potential for any European grumbling about the final terms.
'They can't complain that he didn't know their position or that he didn't give them the opportunity to weigh in with him,' said Fleitz, now vice chair of the America First Policy Institute's Center for American Security. 'And I think this is great because whatever is agreed to, Trump can say this represents the opinion and the will of the international community.'
Some in Europe feel that Team Trump has moved into their corner, particularly Vice President JD VANCE, who has held several consultations with the Europeans about Russia.
'People are pretty impressed by Vance, who is looking for solutions while being clear that Putin is the bad guy here,' the senior European official said.
Trump isn't the only one trying to present a united front before the face-to-face in Alaska. Putin spoke with North Korean leader KIM JONG UN on Tuesday evening. North Korean state media reported that Putin praised the 'bravery, heroism and self-sacrificing spirit' of North Korean troops who fought in Kursk earlier this year. Russian state media added that Putin discussed the upcoming Alaska meeting with Kim, though neither side offered details about what was discussed between them.
The question is how long this Western unity will last. Charap warned that if Europe and the U.S. aren't on the same page going forward, it only stands to benefit Putin. He said that if the U.S. goes for sanctions relief but doesn't have Europe's support, it would undermine Europe's efforts to increase pressure on Russia. Meanwhile, if the U.S. stops military support for Ukraine or if the Ukraine contact group falls apart, that could hurt European security, too.
The Inbox
TELL US WHAT YOU THINK: We're eager to know how you feel about the information you're getting in your inbox every day. Please let us know what's working for you, what isn't and what we're missing. Take our survey here.
TRUMP ACKNOWLEDGES HACKS: The president acknowledged that Russia was behind a hack of the U.S. federal court system but didn't offer much in the way of condemnation.
'They hack in, that's what they do. They're good at it, we're good at it, we're actually better at it,' Trump said. He added he was indeed aware of the hack and didn't rule out mentioning it to Putin.
How did the hackers get in? As our own John Sakellariadis reported Tuesday night, hackers managed to exploit basic vulnerabilities in the court's file management system, which were known about and remained unresolved since 2020. Russian hackers are being accused of 'pilfering source code for the filing system from at least three federal district courts and vacuuming up sealed case data,' John wrote.
Our Pro subscribers got this analysis and more on the federal hack in today's edition of Morning Cybersecurity. Want to get these insights delivered to your inbox every morning? Sign up for POLITICO Pro here.
MEXICO'S FEARS: Trump's reported decision to authorize the Pentagon to use military force against transnational criminal groups, among them Mexican cartels, is rattling Mexico's business elites, our own Nahal Toosi reports from Mexico City.
In her column out today, there are worries that Trump's policies toward the cartels could end up punishing companies that may have few options but to do business with the criminal groups. And anxiety rages that an accompanying economic downturn, plus deportations and the unintended consequences of U.S. attacks against the cartels, could ultimately help the cartels become stronger.
That said, U.S. officials are very happy that Mexico extradited a group of gang leaders to the United States. Ambassador to Mexico RONALD JOHNSON wrote on X today that the action reflects the Mexican security cabinet's 'dedication and commitment' as well as 'the strength of our bilateral cooperation as sovereign partners.'
The warm response, in the meantime, offers public vindication of a consistent argument from the Mexican side — that the Sheinbaum government is cooperating fully with the Trump administration in its fight against the cartels and is actively helping reduce the amount of fentanyl and other drugs smuggled into the United States.
HAVANA MAXIMUM PRESSURE: The State Department imposed new visa restrictions on Cuban, African and Grenadian officials accused of mistreating Cuban doctors sent abroad as part of the island's 'medical missions.'
In a statement, State said the actions were part of the U.S. commitment to 'confront the Cuban regime's abuses and stand with the Cuban people.' State had previously targeted some Mexican government officials and officials in other Latin American countries with visa restrictions over the treatment of Cuban doctors in those countries.
It's the latest example of the Trump administration gradually ratcheting up economic pressure on Havana. The administration has focused on the medical missions, in which countries pay Cuba to provide them with doctors.
The island's communist government argues the revenues are being reinvested in the island's health care system. The United States disputes those claims, arguing officials enrich themselves through the 'forced labor' of Cuban doctors with little benefit to the Cuban people.
IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [e-mail], and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil.
While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on social media at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi.bsky.social, @PhelimKine, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel
Keystrokes
TRUST BUT VERIFY: The U.S. is secretly embedding location tracking devices in shipments of advanced artificial intelligence chips to catch illegal diversions to China, Reuters reports.
The law enforcement tactic targets select shipments of servers from companies like Dell and Super Micro that contain Nvidia and AMD processors, focusing on shipments authorities see as high-risk for diversion to restricted destinations.
The covert surveillance program represents a significant escalation in Washington's efforts to enforce semiconductor export restrictions and prevent cutting-edge AI technology from reaching Chinese hands. It also signals that U.S. authorities suspect widespread evasion of the chip controls that both the Biden and Trump administrations made central to their China containment strategies.
The Complex
THE NDAA PILE-ON: The National Defense Authorization Act is shaping up to be this year's biggest legislative vehicle as lawmakers scramble to attach unrelated bills to the must-pass defense policy measure, our Joe Gould writes. Subscribers got this first in Morning Defense (for Pros!).
With the GOP megabill already enacted, and a potential government shutdown looming that could stall other major legislation, the NDAA has become prime real estate for measures that might not otherwise get floor time. House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON has already opened the door by previously agreeing to include a ban on government-issued digital currency in the defense bill to secure GOP hardliner support for landmark cryptocurrency legislation in July.
Defense hawks aren't amused. Rep. ROB WITTMAN (R-Va.), vice chair of the House Armed Services Committee, argued Johnson's crypto deal should be viewed as 'a one-time scenario' and warned against opening 'carte blanche' for other unrelated measures.
Broadsides
SAVE THE CHILDREN: Moscow must return thousands of deported children before Ukraine reaches any peace deal with Russia, Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs MARIANA BETSA argues in an op-ed published earlier today in POLITICO.
Russia has systematically deported, illegally adopted and forcibly assimilated Ukrainian children, transferring many deep into Russia, where their names and identities have been changed and their native language forbidden, she writes.
Despite three rounds of talks in Istanbul where Ukraine presented a modest starting point of 339 names to test Russian good faith, Moscow's delegation has met Ukrainian appeals with 'silence, evasion and scorn,' she said, with the most recent meeting lasting less than an hour due to Russia's refusal to engage seriously. Ukraine has so far returned around 1,500 children through government and humanitarian efforts, but officials stress this represents only a fraction of those taken.
Transitions
— MICHAEL CARPENTER is now senior fellow for transatlantic affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He previously was National Security Council senior director for Europe in the Biden administration and U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
— BILYANA LILLY has joined the Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation as an adjunct fellow.
— DAVID FRASH, the former director for state and local government external affairs at NetJets, has joined Anduril as director of state and local government affairs. He will be based at the company's Arsenal-1 hyperscale manufacturing facility in Ohio.
What to Read
— Souad Mekhennet, Ellen Nakashima, Joanna Slater and Aaron Schaffer, The Washington Post: Inside the 13-year search for Austin Tice, the journalist who disappeared
— Marcus Walker and Ian Lovett, The Wall Street Journal: Ukraine's Once Nimble Army Is Mired in Soviet Decision-Making
— Liam Scott, Columbia Journalism Review: Stars and Stripes Keeps Its Head Down
Tomorrow Today
— Center for a New American Security, 10 a.m.: Policy Options on Afghanistan Four Years After the U.S. Withdrawal
— U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, 10:30 a.m.: Freedom of Religion or Belief in Turkey
— Foreign Policy, 11 a.m.: The Future of European Defense
— Arab Center Washington, D.C., 12 p.m.: A book discussion on 'Understanding Palestine & Israel'
— Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12 p.m.: The Future of UNIFIL and Hezbollah Disarmament
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Emily Lussier, who are never united against us.