Watch CNBC's full interview with Goldman Sachs' Jonny Fine
Jonny Fine, Goldman Sachs global head investment grade credit, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the corporate bond market, expectations for the Fed, and more.
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Yahoo
19 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Swiss deflation fuels talks of negative interest rates: Is SNB ready?
Remember negative interest rates? Back in early 2020, as the world grappled with the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks across advanced economies rushed to slash interest rates, offering cheaper borrowing to cushion the economic blow alongside unprecedented fiscal support. In many countries, rates tumbled to near or even below zero — an extraordinary policy shift reflecting the urgency of avoiding a prolonged recession. Fast forward five years, and no major economy currently operates with rates at or below zero. But Switzerland could soon change that. Switzerland could soon become the first advanced economy to re-enter the era of negative interest rates. A confluence of weakening price pressures and a subdued economic outlook has sparked growing expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will resume ultra-loose monetary policy, potentially cutting interest rates below zero in the coming months. Last week, the Swiss Federal Statistical Office reported that consumer prices fell by 0.1% in May 2025 compared to a year earlier, marking the first deflationary print since March 2021. The decline was broad-based, with notable year-on-year contractions in transport costs (-3.7%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.3%), healthcare (-0.2%), and household goods and services (-2.6%). While a modest bout of deflation is not in itself alarming, it underscores the fragility of domestic demand and presents a challenge for the SNB's inflation target. The central bank defines price stability as annual inflation between 0% and 2%. "Swiss inflation could remain close to 0%, which represents the lower end of the SNB's price stability range," said Niklas Garnadt, economist at Goldman Sachs. The expert identified declining inflation expectations, falling energy prices, and potential trade frictions as downside pressures on the price outlook going forward. The SNB, which currently holds its policy rate at 0.25%, meets on 19 June, and economists are expecting another rate cut of 25 basis points. According to Goldman Sachs' base case, the SNB will lower its policy rate to -0.25% by September, in two successive cuts. Yet, there is a 40% chance, the bank noted, that policymakers may opt for more aggressive easing, with two 50 basis point cuts taking the rate back to -0.75% — the lowest in its history. Although the SNB also has foreign exchange operations at its disposal, economists expect interest rate cuts to take precedence in the near term. There are some reasons for this preference, according to Goldman Sachs. "The SNB has prior experience managing the impact of negative rates," Garnadt said. Moreover, domestic inflation is more responsive to interest rates than currency movements. And finally, Switzerland remains on the US Treasury's watchlist for currency manipulation, potentially constraining foreign-exchange intervention activity. That said, foreign exchange interventions have not been ruled out entirely. During the post-2008 low-inflation years, the SNB frequently bought foreign currency to stem franc appreciation. The SNB is again navigating familiar territory, balancing the need to support inflation against the risks of overreliance on unconventional measures. While Switzerland's economic fundamentals remain relatively strong, the renewed threat of deflation could push the central bank to breach interest-rate lower bounds again. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Wall Street Journal
22 minutes ago
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Core Inflation Expected to Head Higher, Goldman Economists Say
Customers at a T.J. Maxx store in Chicago. Goldman Sachs economists project higher goods inflation ahead. ()
CNBC
31 minutes ago
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UK spending review: Ian King on what we could see from the Treasury
Ian King, author of CNBC's U.K. Exchange newsletter, discusses the country's upcoming spending review, in which the British government sets out budgets for government departments for the next few years.
