Russia is open to peace with Ukraine but insists on achieving its goals, Kremlin spokesman says
Peskov and other Russian officials have repeatedly rejected accusations from Kyiv and its Western partners of stalling peace talks. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to intensify its long-range attacks on Ukrainian cities, launching more drones in a single night than it did during some entire months in 2024, and analysts say the barrages are likely to escalate.
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Japan Forward
24 minutes ago
- Japan Forward
Tough US-Japan Trade Negotiations Open Opportunities for India
Japan has been significantly impacted by recent United States tariff policies, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba describing the situation as a "national crisis at one point. While Tokyo finalized a trade agreement with the US on July 23, it is worth revisiting the deal-making's broader implications. In April, the US imposed a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, along with proposed reciprocal tariffs on countries with trade surpluses. That included Japan, which posted a $63.63 billion USD surplus in 2024. Additional measures include a 25% tariff on auto imports and the reinstatement of 25% tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminum products. Starting July 9, Japan was to face 25% tariffs on exports to the US. Accordingly, the July 23 agreement reduced tariffs on cars and other goods to 15% in exchange for a $550 billion Japanese investment package directed to the US, including equity, loans, and guarantees. It also ensured that Japan would always receive the lowest tariff rate on chips and pharmaceuticals compared to all other pacts negotiated by Washington. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on July 31st that reaffirmed the trade deal. Leading up to the deal, US tariffs were having a severe impact on trade, leading to declines in Japanese exports in May. Measured by value, exports decreased by 1.7% compared to 2024. Declines were primarily due to prices in the car, steel, and mineral fuel sectors, while overall export volume rose by 8%. Furthermore, Japanese imports declined by 7.7%, with crude oil and coal experiencing some of the sharpest declines. This resulted in a trade balance deficit of ¥637.6 billion ($4.4 billion) for Japan. These numbers rattled investor sentiment, causing the Japanese yen to drop by roughly 1% overnight in July. The Japanese currency remained under pressure, falling to a two-week low of 147.5 per dollar as of August 4. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) and US President Donald Trump attend a joint press conference at the White House on February 13 (©Reuters) In this context, India could become a strategic economic partner for Japan by boosting bilateral trade, strengthening supply chain cooperation, and encouraging long-term investments in the manufacturing and technology sectors. This article explores the potential enhancement of economic diplomacy between the two countries. Geopolitical shifts and uncertainties under Trump 2.0 create opportunities. Tokyo is moving from a mainly bilateral strategy to increased coordination with middle powers, and the India-Japan partnership can address this strategic gap. Japan has growing concerns about the long-term openness of the US market, viewing its heavy dependence on US trade as a risk. The weakening of multilateral trade institutions during both Trump administrations has hurt global trade and weakened rule enforcement. In response, Japan is expanding its broader trade connections, including pursuing a multilateral strategy with regional partners, such as South Korea and Taiwan. It is also increasing its engagement with the European Union (EU), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries (Malaysia, Indonesia), and frameworks like the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative involving Australia and India. In May, India and Japan notified the WTO of plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods, citing WTO rules. India estimated it had $7.6 billion in affected exports. Japan's WTO notification reveals that its retaliatory measures would have targeted not only US steel and aluminum tariffs, but also American import restrictions on automobiles and auto parts. These were part of a coordinated effort to counter US tariffs as part of the proposed suspension of concessions. They provided an opportunity for recalibration of priorities, passively positioned within the US alliance structure. Meanwhile, they were accompanied by active reconsideration of ways to develop resilience. The US tariffs provide India with room to negotiate a new framework of cooperation with Japan that could have long-term ramifications. First, as the world's most populous country, India attracts Japanese companies. Existing cooperation with Australia on rare earths also enhances trade opportunities and economic integration. Second, Japan–India economic ties are intensifying. India becomes a more attractive manufacturing partner—a trend indicated by Nomura, which sees India benefiting from trade diversion and supply-chain shifts. It also utilizes a trilateral framework with Japan and Taiwan to diversify its supply chains. India is in a prime geopolitical position. According to the International Monetary Fund, India is projected to become the world's third-largest economy by 2027, with a gross domestic product of $5 trillion. Additionally, it has the second-largest English-speaking population worldwide and places a strong emphasis on STEM education, producing over 2 million graduates annually. Its blend of a rapidly growing, well-educated workforce and its strategic location near the Middle East, Europe, West Africa, Southeast Asia, and East Asia — supported by established sea routes — makes it an ideal spot for business. This could be a game-changer for India and its industry. Japan's advanced manufacturing complements India's labor pool, consumer base, low operating costs, and linkages to important international markets. Furthermore, the National Policy on Electronics, established in 2019 to position India as a global hub for electronics, has promoted the development of core components, including semiconductor chips, graphics chips, motherboard chipsets, and other computing devices. This has improved the competitiveness of the electronics industry worldwide. Similarly, there is the Indian government's Production Linked Incentive program. It pursues large-scale electronics manufacturing, provides financial incentives to boost domestic production, and attracts significant investments in electronic components and semiconductor packaging. India-Japan cooperation, through their Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, Supply Chain Resilience Initiative, and semiconductor ties, can help both mitigate US tariff impacts by diversifying supply chains away from the constrained US market. This would enhance regional trade resilience and attract investment in high-tech manufacturing. Together, they can reduce dependency on the US, strengthen regional economic resilience, and promote Indo-Pacific cooperation amid shifting global trade dynamics. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet on the side of ASEAN. October 10, 2024 (©Prime Minister's Office) Additionally, Japan faces a complex challenge in key sectors, such as the automobile industry, which is vital to its economy. Indian partnerships could also be utilized in this sector. Currently, Japan has a $4.6 billion trade deficit with India in the automotive trade, highlighting Japan's dominance in high-tech exports. However, India is closing the gap by increasing component manufacturing and collaborating on EV-related projects. By 2030, India and Japan aim to double bilateral automotive trade to $15 billion. This includes launching joint R&D projects in clean energy and smart mobility, as well as training 10,000 Indian engineers in Japanese manufacturing methods. Nevertheless, India has been cautious in its participation in trade rulemaking, its strategies for market access, and supply chain diversification. This is reflected in its positions in multilateral forums and its approaches to industrial subsidies. All of these will play vital roles in shaping its future path in global trade. India's call for fair trade negotiations must be accompanied by necessary domestic-level changes. That includes easing the business environment and relaxing government regulations to boost investor sentiment. This could ultimately benefit the Indian economy in the long run. There is also a shift in trade patterns, prompting a rethink of production strategies that could lead to deeper economic integration. India could benefit from this shift, as well as from increased diversification in global supply chains. With competitive labor costs and a growing manufacturing sector, India may become a more attractive option for production. It is poised to become a reliable long-term partner for Japan, leveraging its youthful demographic, institutional reforms, infrastructure, growing geopolitical stature, and global partnerships to anchor resilient supply chains. Japan should continue recalibrating in response to Trump's second-term trade policy within a multipolar Indo-Pacific framework. Strategic separation is necessary as Ishiba advocates for a shift toward formal, institutional diplomacy. Meanwhile, Japan is taking on a larger share of regional security responsibilities in more dispersed, networked ways. Those include increased coordination between India and Japan, as well as triangulation with other partners. This approach offers new opportunities and an innovative framework for cooperation, including reliance on rule-based multilateralism. It is a well-timed approach aligned with the shared democratic values of both countries. Author: Varuna Shankar
Toronto Star
4 hours ago
- Toronto Star
Texas Democrats arrive in Illinois to block vote back home on redrawn House maps sought by Trump
Democrats in the Texas House left the state Sunday in a last-resort bid to block new congressional maps sought by President Donald Trump that would give Republicans a better chance of preserving their narrow U.S. House majority in the 2026 midterm elections. The dramatic revolt came before the GOP-controlled state House was set to vote Monday afternoon on the proposed maps, which would give Republicans five more winnable congressional seats. Texas' Republican governor subsequently threatened to remove the lawmakers from office if they don't return by the time the House meets.
The Province
6 hours ago
- The Province
The two ways Trump's tariffs on Canada could collapse — despite his fight to keep them
The courts are considering whether they're even legal under U.S. law, and the American economy has yet to feel the pain of higher prices Dubbing it "Liberation Day," U.S. President Donald Trump announces his plan to enact sweeping new reciprocal tariffs worldwide, on April 2, 2025. Photo by Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images/File WASHINGTON, D.C. — Time's up. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump raised the tariff rate on Canadian goods not covered under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) from 25 to 35 per cent, saying they 'have to pay a fair rate.' The White House claims it's because of Canada's failure to curb the 'ongoing flood of fentanyl and other illicit drugs.' U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data, however, show that fentanyl seizures from Canada make up less than 0.1 per cent of total U.S. seizures of the drug; most smuggling comes across the Mexican border. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Exclusive articles by top sports columnists Patrick Johnston, Ben Kuzma, J.J. Abrams and others. Plus, Canucks Report, Sports and Headline News newsletters and events. Unlimited online access to The Province and 15 news sites with one account. The Province ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on. Daily puzzles and comics, including the New York Times Crossword. Support local journalism. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Exclusive articles by top sports columnists Patrick Johnston, Ben Kuzma, J.J. Abrams and others. Plus, Canucks Report, Sports and Headline News newsletters and events. Unlimited online access to The Province and 15 news sites with one account. The Province ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on. Daily puzzles and comics, including the New York Times Crossword. Support local journalism. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors But the future of Trump's policy also rests on shaky ground, and the tariffs could come crashing down even if Canada can't reach a deal at some point. Imposed through a controversially declared 'national emergency' under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the tariffs come with essentially three paths for relief to Canadian exporters and their American customers: the courts and the economy. And there's always the wildcard: that the president changes his mind. Without relying on that, National Post looks at two very possible ways out of all this: The courts: There is a big question hanging over whether Trump's tariffs are even legal under the U.S. Constitution, which gives Congress powers over trade. Trump has bypassed that by claiming he's using presidential IEEPA emergency powers. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. On Thursday, the Washington, D.C.-based Federal Circuit Court of Appeals convened an en banc hearing for oral arguments in challenges to Trump's use of IEEPA. The 11 judges questioned whether the law meant for sanctioning adversaries or freezing assets during emergencies grants Trump the power to impose tariffs, with one judge noting, 'IEEPA doesn't even mention the word 'tariffs.'' The White House, meanwhile, says the law grants the president 'broad and flexible' emergency powers, including the ability to regulate imports. 'Based on the tenor and questions of the arguments, it appears that the challengers have the better odds of prevailing,' Thomas Berry, the CATO Institute's director of the Robert A. Levy Center for Constitutional Studies, said in a statement. 'Several judges peppered the government's attorney with skeptical questions about why a broad term in IEEPA like 'regulate importation' should be read to allow the president to unilaterally impose tariffs.' Essential reading for hockey fans who eat, sleep, Canucks, repeat. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Trump's lawyers claim his executive order provides the justifications for the tariffs — in Canada's case, fentanyl. But Berry said 'those justifications would not matter if IEEPA simply does not authorize tariffs in the first place. That is the cleanest and simplest way to resolve this case, and it appears that the Federal Circuit may be leaning toward that result.' A decision is expected this month, and if it's a resounding push back from the judges' panel, said Andrew Hale, a senior policy analyst at Heritage Foundation, the Supreme Court may not even take up the case. If so, he says, 'these Liberation Day tariffs and everything that's been imposed under emergency legislation, IEEPA, that all evaporates.' At that point, the White House would not be able to declare across-the-board tariffs against countries. Instead, it would have to rely on laws allowing tariffs to be imposed on specific products that are found to threaten U.S. national security, like those currently imposed on Canadian steel and lumber. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The economy: The other path to tariff relief is through economic pressure. If Americans start to see higher prices and economic uncertainty, and push back at the ballot box — or threaten to do so — it could force Trump to reverse course. The most recent figures show that U.S. inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index, hit around 2.7 per cent in July. That's a slight rise, fuelled by rising prices for food, transportation and used cars. But it's still close to the Federal Reserve target of two per cent. U.S. unemployment rose slightly to 4.2 per cent in July, while far fewer jobs were created than expected, and consumer confidence rose two points but is still several points lower than it was in January. Overall, most economists agree that risks of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months are relatively low, but skepticism over growth remains high. 'Our outlook is for slower growth in the U.S., but no recession,' said Gus Faucher, chief economist of The PNC Financial Services Group. He notes that the 'tariffs are going to be a drag' because they are a tax increase on imports. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Economists have said price inflation from tariffs is not yet being felt in the U.S. but believe it's inevitable. 'Trump's tariff madness adds a great deal to the risks of a recession,' said Steven Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University who served on President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors. 'With tariffs, Americans are going to be paying a big new beautiful sales tax on goods and services imported into the U.S., and taxes slow things down. Taxes don't stimulate.' It is surprising that higher U.S. prices haven't happened yet, said Jonathan Gruber, chairman of the economics department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. But he explained that it's likely a reflection of the duration of contracts and the fact that import sellers haven't yet put up prices — 'because they were hoping it wouldn't be real, like they'd wake up from this nightmare.' This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'I think we start to see the effect on prices by the end of the year,' said Gruber. The trouble for Canada, however, is that the Canadian economy is starting from a much weaker position, with higher unemployment, lower consumer confidence, and a slowing GDP, on top of the trade tensions. So, trying to wait things out for the U.S. to feel the pinch will be even more painful for Canadians. And any American downturn will also reverberate north. 'As Uncle Sam goes, so goes Canada,' said Hanke. Gruber agrees with that, but with a caveat. 'It's all bad in the short run and good in the long run,' he says. He believes the U.S. is 'weak and getting weaker' and that Canada should start taking advantage of how the U.S. is making opportunities for other countries to invest in themselves. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'We're not investing in our future. We're killing our education. We're killing our research. We're not allowing in immigrants,' he said, explaining the weakening of the U.S. economy. 'We're basically setting the stage for long-run economic slower growth.' Meanwhile, China is doubling down on investment, research and other longer-term policies. 'Canada and other countries need to do the same,' Gruber said. And as for when a backlash could lead to a reversal in the U.S., Gruber points to two factors. 'It's got to be high inflation, and Trump's opponents need to make sure that the voters understand that's Trump's fault.' National Post tmoran@ Read More Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our newsletters here. News News Tennis Columnists Vancouver Canucks
