Democrats prefer Adrienne Adams to Cuomo in general election, new poll shows

Politico

2 days ago

NEW YORK — Democratic primary voters would pick Adrienne Adams over Andrew Cuomo in a general election if she were to run on the left-flank Working Families Party ballot line, polling obtained by POLITICO reveals.
A survey of likely Democratic primary voters conducted last month found them choosing the relatively low-profile New York City Council speaker over the former governor 41 percent to 34 percent. Primary frontrunner Cuomo would beat state Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani — who is polling second in the primary — 46-35. And Cuomo would also defeat city Comptroller Brad Lander 41-38, the poll found.
The Working Families Party tapped polling firm Upswing Research & Strategy to conduct the survey to inform its endorsement process. The poll questioned 600 likely Democratic primary voters about the June 24 contest before dividing the group into three equally sized subgroups and asking about the November general election. Each subgroup of 200 voters was surveyed about one of the three head-to-head matchups, according to Ana María Archila, co-director of the third party's New York chapter.
Even after the poll projected Adams defeating Cuomo in the general election, the party on Friday night picked Mamdani as its first choice on a five-person slate it's backing to defeat the former governor, its longtime nemesis, in the primary. It ranked Lander second, Adams third, and state Sens. Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos fourth and fifth. The city's ranked-choice voting system allows New Yorkers to pick up to five candidates in order of preference.
State Attorney General Letitia James, Adams' most prominent endorser, was among those briefed on the poll.
'Everyone has to think about what is in the best interest of this city and not in their own best interest. In a one-to-one match up against scandals and toxic masculinity, Adrienne Adams is the only choice,' James replied when asked for comment Sunday. 'We cannot go back. Progress requires looking forward.'
Like the WFP, James has a bitter relationship with the mayoral frontrunner, whose gubernatorial career she helped end with a report substantiating accusations he sexually harassed staffers. Cuomo denies the charges.
Archila cautioned against drawing conclusions from the general election question, given its small sample size and its omission of Republican and independent voters. The party would consider running its own candidate in November if Cuomo wins the Democratic primary in three weeks, but Archila said she's only focused on the upcoming contest.
To that end, the WFP's poll showed its unranked endorsement of Adams, Lander, Mamdani and Myrie — announced in late March — failed to alter Cuomo's primary lead. 'The WFP endorsement does little to change the first-choice vote share,' reads one of the slides reviewed by POLITICO.
But once the party ranks its preferred candidates, its influence grows. The poll found that around half of the 600 potential voters surveyed would be likely to rank the party's first choice as their top pick, according to a presentation viewed by POLITICO.
With that in mind, the WFP announced its choices Friday and rallied over the weekend with Mamdani, who had the highest favorability of the WFP's slate in the poll.
'Zohran is the one that has the most momentum, the most enthusiasm and the capacity to communicate with voters all across the city at doors, via social media and on the phones,' Archila said in an interview. 'We are confident that he will continue, in partnership with other candidates on the slate, to build the momentum to defeat Cuomo.'
None of the party's ranked candidates have formally backed each other, despite the benefits of cross endorsements. In 2021, mayoral candidate Andrew Yang's 11th-hour support of Kathryn Garcia helped her secure second place behind Eric Adams.
The WFP poll also found Adrienne Adams and Mamdani have a lot of influence over their backers: at least 70 percent of their supporters would rank someone else if they urged them to. Archila says this illustrates the power of ranked-choice voting and should persuade the party's slate of candidates to work in concert to deny Cuomo the Democratic nomination.
The survey also found WFP candidates do best with voters who are white, self-described liberals living in Manhattan and Brooklyn. Yet the party's endorsement would move the needle most with Black Democratic primary voters and those in the Bronx, the poll found.
POLITICO obtained a portion of the poll and was then briefed by the WFP on other parts of the survey, though Archila declined to release it in full.
Adrienne Adams' team declined to comment on the findings.
Mamdani maxed out early with fundraising and recently cut a video urging his supporters to donate to the Council speaker ahead of a critical fundraising deadline. She got into the race relatively late and had been scrambling for cash. On Friday, the Campaign Finance Board awarded her $2 million in public matching funds — essential to paying for ads, which she is expected to air soon.